2020-2021 NFL Season (1 Viewer)

[Martino]

The draft is always tricky, and I think that there are no hard rules to follow. Like if my team won't draft <any position> in the first round because they can be had in later rounds. There are a few tight ends who are the #1 option on their teams - like Kelce, Waller and Kittle. Yes it is true that these players were not taken in the first round, but this is where draft hindsight comes into play - and it can be unpredictable.

There are a lot of examples of it not working, and some examples of it working - as you stated:
"Tony Gonzales is one of the rare first rounders to live up to his draft position."

Example: Kelce was drafted in the 3rd round - and there were 4 TE drafted before he was.

1. In the first round - TE - Tyler Eifert, with the 21st pick in the process. Eifert is now Jacksonville Jaguar. He missed far more games in Cincinnati due to injury than ones he played. (221 receptions, 2,501 yards, 26 TDs)
2. The Philadelphia Eagles chose Stanford’s Zach Ertz with the 35th pick. He has proven to be a solid receiver and is one of the best in the NFL, a cut below Kelce and George Kittle. Ertz has 525 receptions.
3. Dallas used a second-round pick on San Diego State TE Gavin Escobar. He had 30 receptions in an NFL career that saw him with Dallas and Baltimore. He also played in the AAF. (30 receptions, 333 yards, 8 TDs)
4. The San Francisco 49ers used the 55th pick to grab Vance McDonald from Rice. He played four years by the Bay and the last three with Pittsburgh. (181 receptions, 2036 yards, 15 TDs)
5. The Kansas City Chiefs struck gold with the 63rd pick in the 2013 NFL Draft. The first choice in the third round was a tight end out of Cincinnati, Travis Kelce. He had knee surgery as a rookie and played in one game with no stats. In the six seasons since, Kelce has 507 catches for 6,465 yards and 37 touchdowns.

Now - knowing what you know now, do you think that any of the teams that selected a TE before Kelce would have gladly changed their selection, including Cincinnati who selected a TE in the first round? If you think you have a TE that can produce like that (507 catches for 6,465 yards and 37 touchdowns) you would be smart to take them in the 1st round - but being the draft you can never tell.

 

[Winston T. Boogie]

The draft is always tricky, and I think that there are no hard rules to follow. Like if my team won't draft <any position> in the first round because they can be had in later rounds. There are a few tight ends who are the #1 option on their teams - like Kelce, Waller and Kittle. Yes it is true that these players were not taken in the first round, but this is where draft hindsight comes into play - and it can be unpredictable.

There are a lot of examples of it not working, and some examples of it working - as you stated:
"Tony Gonzales is one of the rare first rounders to live up to his draft position."

Example: Kelce was drafted in the 3rd round - and there were 4 TE drafted before he was.

1. In the first round - TE - Tyler Eifert, with the 21st pick in the process. Eifert is now Jacksonville Jaguar. He missed far more games in Cincinnati due to injury than ones he played. (221 receptions, 2,501 yards, 26 TDs)
2. The Philadelphia Eagles chose Stanford’s Zach Ertz with the 35th pick. He has proven to be a solid receiver and is one of the best in the NFL, a cut below Kelce and George Kittle. Ertz has 525 receptions.
3. Dallas used a second-round pick on San Diego State TE Gavin Escobar. He had 30 receptions in an NFL career that saw him with Dallas and Baltimore. He also played in the AAF. (30 receptions, 333 yards, 8 TDs)
4. The San Francisco 49ers used the 55th pick to grab Vance McDonald from Rice. He played four years by the Bay and the last three with Pittsburgh. (181 receptions, 2036 yards, 15 TDs)
5. The Kansas City Chiefs struck gold with the 63rd pick in the 2013 NFL Draft. The first choice in the third round was a tight end out of Cincinnati, Travis Kelce. He had knee surgery as a rookie and played in one game with no stats. In the six seasons since, Kelce has 507 catches for 6,465 yards and 37 touchdowns.

Now - knowing what you know now, do you think that any of the teams that selected a TE before Kelce would have gladly changed their selection, including Cincinnati who selected a TE in the first round? If you think you have a TE that can produce like that (507 catches for 6,465 yards and 37 touchdowns) you would be smart to take them in the 1st round - but being the draft you can never tell.

The thing about Pitts to me is he honestly looks like a sure thing. He has the talent and size to dominate NFL caliber players as soon as he steps on the field. He looks like he will be better than Kelce and probably a TD machine. He is as Patrick stated, a match-up nightmare that will keep defensive coordinators up at night. Even more so if he joins a team with talent at the WR position because this will make him even more of a nightmare to defend.

So, is he worth the 4th pick? Maybe. Out of all the players that go in round one he looks like probably the one that will immediately change the team he is on and probably only get better...which is scary. This is all barring injury of course.

Now, how much can a TE change an NFL offense? If he catches 80 or more passes, scores double digit TDs, and stays on the field all season...well...he would probably change things a lot. Which would probably translate to more wins for whomever takes him.

I agree with Scott that it is not a position I would normally draft in the top ten, but my guess is this kid won't get out of the top ten in this draft. The Dolphins very well may take him at 6 if the Falcons pass on him at 4. He's a big weapon and he is going to make QB's very happy and OC's drool at the idea of working him into a game plan.

 

[Jeffrey D]

The thing about Pitts to me is he honestly looks like a sure thing. He has the talent and size to dominate NFL caliber players as soon as he steps on the field. He looks like he will be better than Kelce and probably a TD machine. He is as Patrick stated, a match-up nightmare that will keep defensive coordinators up at night. Even more so if he joins a team with talent at the WR position because this will make him even more of a nightmare to defend.

So, is he worth the 4th pick? Maybe. Out of all the players that go in round one he looks like probably the one that will immediately change the team he is on and probably only get better...which is scary. This is all barring injury of course.

Now, how much can a TE change an NFL offense? If he catches 80 or more passes, scores double digit TDs, and stays on the field all season...well...he would probably change things a lot. Which would probably translate to more wins for whomever takes him.

I agree with Scott that it is not a position I would normally draft in the top ten, but my guess is this kid won't get out of the top ten in this draft. The Dolphins very well may take him at 6 if the Falcons pass on him at 4. He's a big weapon and he is going to make QB's very happy and OC's drool at the idea of working him into a game plan.

Does he physically look like Gronkowski? If he has that kind of talent, and can stay on the field, he is a game changer.

 

[Winston T. Boogie]

Does he physically look like Gronkowski? If he has that kind of talent, and can stay on the field, he is a game changer.

He is 6' 6" and 240lbs so same height but about 20lbs lighter and more athletic. He has tremendous hands and moves and adjusts like a WR. Gronk was super strong for a TE and I would say he does not have that sort of "throw you out of the club" thing but he's a hell of a pass catcher that is faster than Gronk.

 

[Winston T. Boogie]

If the Falcons take Pitts and you have to defend Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, and Kyle Pitts...that's f-ing scary.

 

[Scott Merryfield]

If the Falcons take Pitts and you have to defend Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, and Kyle Pitts...that's f-ing scary.

We heard the same thing regarding match up nightmares when the Giants drafted Engram in the first round (paired with Beckham) and when the Lions drafted Ebron (paired with Calvin Johnson). How did those work out?

There is a learning curve with tight ends coming into the league, as they not only have to learn their pass routes, but also their blocking assignments. Rookies almost never make an immediate impact.

I would be upset if my team used such a high draft pick on a tight end or running back. It's no where near as critical a position as QB, left tackle, edge rusher or linebacker - - or even wide receiver. If a team really wants a tight end, they should trade down, as Denver did a couple of years ago, when they traded with Pittsburgh (who took Devin Bush) and the Broncos took Fant. The Lions screwed up by taking a similar tight end right in front of that Devin Bush pick.

This year, it appears the top three picks could be QB's. That means at #4 Atlanta would have their choice of the top left tackle or edge rusher in the draft. Using the pick on a tight end would be an incredible waste of draft capital.

 

[Patrick Sun]

Falcons are in the bad position of being stuck with Matt Ryan for a couple of years, and the most attractive trading partner is Denver (pick #9), who is behind Carolina (pick #8), and there's no way the Falcons will trade with in-conference foe Carolina so that Carolina can pick up the 4th "best" QB in the draft, so it's either OT Sewell or TE Pitts (not really a classical TE, but a hybrid receiver in the NFL, I suspect). Pitts will create a lot of mismatches with his size and speed and catch-radius, and if you double-team Pitts, you leave Julio 1-on-1 on the outside (when Julio is healthy), so it's a "pick your poison" situation for defenses, who also have to account for Ridley.

 

[Jeffrey D]

For what this is worth- some “expert” has posted a recent mock draft, and the 49ers are projected to take North Dakota State QB Trey Lance with the #3 pick.

Another FWIW- someone thinks Pitts is the second best player in the draft, behind only Lawrence. Hmmmm.

 

[Scott Merryfield]

Falcons are in the bad position of being stuck with Matt Ryan for a couple of years, and the most attractive trading partner is Denver (pick #9), who is behind Carolina (pick #8), and there's no way the Falcons will trade with in-conference foe Carolina so that Carolina can pick up the 4th "best" QB in the draft, so it's either OT Sewell or TE Pitts (not really a classical TE, but a hybrid receiver in the NFL, I suspect). Pitts will create a lot of mismatches with his size and speed and catch-radius, and if you double-team Pitts, you leave Julio 1-on-1 on the outside (when Julio is healthy), so it's a "pick your poison" situation for defenses, who also have to account for Ridley.

In that situation, Atlanta should take the OT if they cannot trade down. Franchise left tackles are as difficult to acquire as quarterbacks. Tight ends can be found in later rounds.

 

[Winston T. Boogie]

There is a learning curve with tight ends coming into the league, as they not only have to learn their pass routes, but also their blocking assignments. Rookies almost never make an immediate impact.

Well, this is true but I think Pitts will be primarily used as a pass catcher at first which is something he can certainly do immediately. The kid runs good routes and just blows away defenders with his speed and size. He also does something I love with pass catchers which is he plucks the ball out of the sky. He does not wait for it to get to him, he grabs it. It is his ball when it is in the air and even with a defender on him they have a very hard time stopping him from snatching that ball out of the air.

He also appears to be a smart football savvy player. So, I think his learning curve will be short.

I can't argue with the idea that taking a TE in the top 10 is not normal but he grades out, according to many, as the best college TE prospect ever. He is the absolute prototype of the modern NFL TE. So, he is a rare bird and as such probably should be considered an exception to the rule of when is a good time to draft a TE.

He is rated even as a TE, a position that usually gets downgraded, as the 4th best prospect in this draft...that's crazy high for a TE because they always rate them below QB, OL, WR, CB, LB just in terms of position value. The downgrade on him is as a blocker, which is not really what he was asked to do much and the one thing he seems not to have a superior grasp of. He already plays the position like a pro when it comes to the pass catching and route running aspects of the game. This kid is definitely not Hockenson or Ebron or Engram.

This draft is super rich in WRs according to the experts. They believe anywhere from 24-27 WRs grade out to be chosen in the first 3 rounds. A bunch of teams will draft WRs in Round 1 but there is only 1 TE graded out to be worth a first round pick and maybe 3 or 4 total that will go in the first 3 rounds. So, in reality, Pitts is a rarity and there are far fewer TEs worth drafting than there are players at other positions. I think that and the possibility he could be a Hall of Fame type player elevates him.

Honestly, I don't think Atlanta will take him at 4. I think Atlanta really wants to trade out of the 4th spot. I think if the Falcons stay at 4 they take Sewell or Slater for their OL. Safe picks and valuable. I think he is more likely to go to Miami at 6 but he definitely is off the board by the 12th pick because every team in the NFC East wants him. The Dolphins are said to want an offensive weapon at 6 and so will draft either a WR or Pitts if he is available. I would draft Pitts and then take a WR later because there are so many in this draft.

The Cowboys, Giants and Eagles are all very interested in Pitts.

 

[Winston T. Boogie]

For what this is worth- some “expert” has posted a recent mock draft, and the 49ers are projected to take North Dakota State QB Trey Lance with the #3 pick.

Another FWIW- someone thinks Pitts is the second best player in the draft, behind only Lawrence. Hmmmm.

I agree that Pitts is a very exciting player and it will be fun to see what he will do in the NFL. He's a guy that probably can start performing a high level right away and probably will look like a pro right away...mainly because he comes in with all the talent and skills to beat NFL defenders. He will likely surprise them.

As to which QB the 49ers take...I was certain it would be Lance but now a lot of the insiders and experts are saying it will be Jones and some are even saying that it will be Fields.

The 49ers don't have much reason to blow any smoke right now because they are not going to trade out of the 3 spot at this point. However, they probably don't want to totally commit to a QB publically because there is a chance that the Jets have been blowing smoke about taking Wilson. If the 49ers end up with a choice between all 4 of the remaining top QBs well, they probably will draft Wilson. I would also say if the 49ers made it clear which QB they want then if another team really wants that QB it gives them more incentive to trade with the Jets to get in front of the 49ers.

Shanahan gushed about Mac Jones a while back well before they traded up to the 3 spot. So, some experts may think Jones is the pick. Others say if the 49ers traded up to get Jones this is worse than the Bears trading up to get Trubisky because a lot of people thought Jones would be available at 12 when the 49ers pick.

Shanahan is known to have expressed his love of Wilson also but Wilson is expected to get selected with the 2 pick either by the Jets or a team that trades into the 2 pick to get him. Or the Jets could just be the Jets and pick some other player at 2. What the Jets do all basically depends on if they have totally given up on Darnold...which some say they have, others say they have not and that the Jets have been blowing smoke about Wilson hoping someone would trade up to get him.

I think the Jets are telling the truth and they love Wilson and they are done with Darnold. So, I don't think they have a master plan to trade back and try to surround Darnold with talent. I think they will take Wilson and trade away Darnold for a third round pick or less. If the Jets really wanted to trade their pick they could have traded with the 49ers and allowed Shanahan his choice of the remaining 4 QBs. They didn't and so I think that makes it a lock that the Jets have been telling the truth and intended to take Wilson all along.

I think Shanahan loved Mac Jones at 12 but at three I think he loves Trey Lance or Fields.

Lance has the best arm of all the QBs in the draft including Lawrence. He is only 20 years old. He only has a small sample size as a starter but he threw 28 TDs and not a single interception leading his team in 2020. That is seriously impressive. Also if you watch him play he looks like he sees the field incredibly well. Arm and field vision, to me, are two things that if you are just gifted with them puts you far ahead of other QBs.

The experts say if Lance stayed in school another year and played at a high level he would be the number one QB in the 2022 draft. I have to say, having looked at video of all 5 of the top QBs, I like Lance the best and would even want him over Lawrence...which technically makes me a moron in terms of NFL scouting skills I would say, ha.

Trey Lance just does things and makes throws that make you go "WOW!" and he gets downgraded because he plays for a lesser school against lesser talent. However, to me he looks like the best QB in this draft...if he goes to the right team. I think Shanahan and the 49ers are a perfect fit for him and my bet is Shanahan would love to get his hands on a 20 year old QB with this kind of potential. If there is a "Mahomes type" in this draft it definitely is Lance. He does not throw at all the weird arm angles Mahomes does but he has that great arm and seems gifted with the ability to see the field that is above anything you can teach.

All that said the guy Shanahan seems to have said the least about is Fields, which may be because that is exactly who he wants, ha.

 

[Winston T. Boogie]

Well, Sam Darnold is now a Carolina Panther so the Jets are certainly taking Wilson.

 

[Robert Crawford]

Well, Sam Darnold is now a Carolina Panther so the Jets are certainly taking Wilson.

Like there was any doubt with this GM, who wanted his own QB.

 

[Winston T. Boogie]

Here's the Darnold deal and he comes in as their new starter they are trading Bridgewater according to the reporting and I wonder if that means the Panthers will now not draft a QB with their 8th pick in Round 1.

---------------------------
Darnold has been traded from the Jets to the Panthers in exchange for a 2021 NFL Draft sixth-round pick plus second- and fourth-round selection sin the 2022 draft, NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported Monday afternoon. The Panthers soon thereafter confirmed the acquisition of Darnold.

The Panthers, who still have 2020 starter Teddy Bridgewater on the roster, were the sole suitor for Darnold and had been strong suitors for Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson, but had transitioned to Darnold, Rapoport added. Darnold now takes the starting reins for the Panthers, while Carolina will look to trade Bridgewater, Rapoport reported.

 

[Jeffrey D]

They gave up a 2nd round pick for Darnold, so my guess is they won’t take a QB at #8 in this year’s draft. What would it hurt to actually be a little patient with Sam? Give him the team for this year, and maybe get somebody next year- my take.
It drives me a bit nuts that not enough teams stick with a QB for long.

 

[Scott Merryfield]

Wow. I'm surprised the Jets got a 2nd round pick for Darnold, along with two other picks. That's a decent haul for a QB that's been a bust for them. I think I would rather have Bridgewater and keep the draft picks if I was a Panthers fan.

 

[Patrick Sun]

Panthers gave up a 2021 6th round pick, plus 2022 2nd and 4th round picks for Darnold, who's a turnover machine even in his college years, so he'll need to clean it up as the new starter for the Panthers.

 

[Winston T. Boogie]

Wow. I'm surprised the Jets got a 2nd round pick for Darnold, along with two other picks. That's a decent haul for a QB that's been a bust for them. I think I would rather have Bridgewater and keep the draft picks if I was a Panthers fan.

So, they have this points system for trades in the NFL where if you are trading a pick in future years it actually has a lesser value than a pick from this year. This means that according to this system a 2nd round pick in 2022 is valued as a 3rd round pick this year and the 4th round pick in 2022 would carry the value of a 5th round pick in 2021.

Meaning according to the point/value system they use the Panthers traded a 6th round, a 3rd round, and a 5th round pick. Which probably is more than the Jets should have got based on the fact that nobody wanted to trade for Darnold except the Panthers.

Basically, the price tag on Darnold the Jets wanted was a third round pick and so they essentially got that (next year) plus a 5th and 6th round pick. It's odd but that's how they look at it.

 

[Winston T. Boogie]

They gave up a 2nd round pick for Darnold, so my guess is they won’t take a QB at #8 in this year’s draft. What would it hurt to actually be a little patient with Sam? Give him the team for this year, and maybe get somebody next year- my take.
It drives me a bit nuts that not enough teams stick with a QB for long.

They may not. They have been mostly attached to taking Justin Fields but now with this trade and how they just outright announced Darnold is their starter I think that really calls into question that they would take a QB with the 8th pick. According to NFL people the amount they gave up in the trade with no stipulations on the 2022 picks, they are not conditional on playing time or performance, means they are committing to Darnold as their starter for 2 years.

If they made the 2022 picks conditional it would supposedly mean that they were not committing to Darnold beyond this season and then there would certainly be a possibility that they could draft a QB with the 8th pick. They still could take a QB at 8 but it just looks less likely now.

 

[Robert Crawford]

The draft starts tonight, but I'm hardly interested in it. My sports fandom has lessen over the past year or so. I wonder why?