2019 At The Box Office (1 Viewer)

[Jake Lipson]

Warner Bros. must be very thankful for the continued legs of Joker at this point. Aside from that, their recent slate (Goldfinch, Motherless Brooklyn, Doctor Sleep) hasn't exactly been a rousing success, and even It Chapter Two did well for itself but represented a dropoff from the first film. They also have The Good Lair next week, which I'm interested in but doesn't seem to be generating a lot of buzz.

 

[Adam Lenhardt]

The Warner marketing team can't be having a good weekend. The reviews for Doctor Sleep were really good, for the most part, and the CinemaScore is a B+, which is outstanding for a horror picture. The problem doesn't seem to be with the product, it seems to be a problem with how the product was sold.

Among the mistakes: Not promoting the hell out of it at Comic-Con. Warner Bros. focused all of their efforts on IT: Chapter Two instead.

I loved all of the posters that played off the stylistic motifs of the original posters and marketing for The Shining. But given that that movie bombed too in its initial weekend, maybe it wasn't the best strategy. Warner Bros. has to hope that it gains steam at the box office the way the Kubrick film did, but that kind of thing is far more rare nowadays than it was back then.

 

[Malcolm R]

I think possibly the length could be a factor, too. I know my interest waned when I learned it was a 2-1/2 hour horror film.

 

[Jake Lipson]

I don't have any skin in this game because I don't watch horror films, but dating it in early November seems weird to me. Except for Countdown, which came and went without much notice, there wasn't a major new horror release in October this year. Why didn't they date Doctor Sleep in advance of Halloween? It Chapter 2 had played out and October didn't have a huge amount of other competition aside from Joker. It seems like they could have slotted Doctor Sleep in there and gotten more of a Halloween bump by default from being a major horror title in October.

 

[Tino]

. Warner Bros. has to hope that it gains steam at the box office the way the Kubrick film did, but that kind of thing is far more rare nowadays than it was back then.

The Shining grossed the equivalent of a $2 million opening and $144 million domestic total in today’s dollars.

 

[Malcolm R]

I don't have any skin in this game because I don't watch horror films, but dating it in early November seems weird to me. Except for Countdown, which came and went without much notice, there wasn't a major new horror release in October this year. Why didn't they date Doctor Sleep in advance of Halloween? It Chapter 2 had played out and October didn't have a huge amount of other competition aside from Joker. It seems like they could have slotted Doctor Sleep in there and gotten more of a Halloween bump by default from being a major horror title in October.

I think it was originally scheduled for January 2020, but Warner moved it up. As you say, I'm not sure why they didn't move it up a couple weeks more.

 

[Josh Steinberg]

A repeat lesson perhaps from Blade Runner 2049. Having a popular cult film as partial source material doesn’t guarantee tentpole numbers for a sequel, regardless of actual quality.

I think something like this would have done well as a Netflix film or as a mini series to launch HBO Max with. Castle Rock is apparently doing very well for Hulu. It’s not that the audience doesn’t exist, it’s that it’s a mismatch for what that audience will leave the house to see.

 

[Adam Lenhardt]

A repeat lesson perhaps from Blade Runner 2049. Having a popular cult film as partial source material doesn’t guarantee tentpole numbers for a sequel, regardless of actual quality.

The big difference is that Blade Rudder 2049 was budgeted like a tentpole, reportedly as much as $185 million. Mike Flanagan got his start in low-budget horror, and he brought that same cost consciousness to Doctor Sleep, making the picture for only $45 million.

With home video and streaming, Warner Bros. will definitely make a (modest) profit on this one eventually.

 

[Edwin-S]

Maybe sequels to Baby Boomer franchises are just not appealing to Millennials. In fact, it may actually be a deterrent for them to go to these films seeing as how many of them seem to despise Boomers and everything they supposedly stand for.

 

[Jake Lipson]

I can only speak for myself, not other people my age, but my two cents, for what it's worth:

I didn't grow up loving Blade Runner -- I didn't even see it until a few years before 2049 came out, and while I thought it was a really cool movie, the circumstances around which I saw it meant that it wasn't something that meant a great deal to me in the way that it obviously was for a lot of people. But I saw 2049 in IMAX on its opening weekend and I thought it was great.

If I were into horror, I would also have no problem with Doctor Sleep, even though The Shining came out before I was born. I don't like horror as a general rule, because I don't like being scared and hate jump scares -- but personally, the age of the original film isn't an issue if the sequel seems like something I want to see.

 

[Edwin-S]

I finally watched "The Shining" because people kept going on about how great it is. It never really struck a chord with me but the film did strike me more as a "supernatural thriller" than a horror film. It was never gratuitously gory like a lot of horror films are and, to me at least, there were few to no jump scares. It was actually a rather slow paced film in my book.

 

[Colin Jacobson]

A repeat lesson perhaps from Blade Runner 2049. Having a popular cult film as partial source material doesn’t guarantee tentpole numbers for a sequel, regardless of actual quality.

One difference: Stephen King. The fact "Sleep" was based on one of his books sets it apart from the "Blade Runner" franchise.

In theory. Apparently audiences weren't especially interested in this one.

Maybe Ewan's awful American accent kept them away!

 

[Adam Lenhardt]

I think Doctor Sleep has the potential to be leggy, given the limited number of showings (only four a day at my local multiplex) and the good word of mouth. The question, given the disastrous opening weekend, is whether it will hold onto screens long enough to get the chance.

Maybe Ewan's awful American accent kept them away!

It's not really an awful American accent, it's an extinct American accent. They were going for a cross between Jack Nicholson's accent and Shelly Duvall's accent circa 1980. The problem is that in the age of mass media and mass communication, regional accents are a lot less distinct than they were forty years ago.

 

[TravisR]

I think Doctor Sleep has the potential to be leggy, given the limited number of showings (only four a day at my local multiplex) and the good word of mouth. The question, given the disastrous opening weekend, is whether it will hold onto screens long enough to get the chance.

Once the "It's a bomb" news stories get going, it's the only thing that the general audience hears and it's basically over for that movie.

 

[Colin Jacobson]

It's not really an awful American accent, it's an extinct American accent. They were going for a cross between Jack Nicholson's accent and Shelly Duvall's accent circa 1980. The problem is that in the age of mass media and mass communication, regional accents are a lot less distinct than they were forty years ago.

I based my comments on trailers, so I may reassess when I see the movie.

Right now I'm sticking with "awful American accent"!

 

[Tino]

www.the-numbers.com


1 N Midway Lionsgate $17,500,000 3,242 $5,398 $17,500,000 1
2 N Doctor Sleep Warner Bros. $14,100,000 3,855 $3,658 $14,100,000 1
3 N Playing with Fire Paramount Pi… $12,800,000 3,125 $4,096 $12,800,000 1
4 N Last Christmas Universal $11,600,000 3,448 $3,364 $11,600,000 1
5 (1) Terminator: Dark Fate Paramount Pi… $10,799,870 -63% 4,086 $2,643 $48,457,000 2
6 (2) Joker Warner Bros. $9,200,000 -32% 2,806 $3,279 $313,491,507 6
7 (3) Maleficent: Mistress of Evil Walt Disney $8,002,000 -39% 3,201 $2,500 $97,301,901 4
8 (4) Harriet Focus Features $7,230,000 -38% 2,186 $3,307 $23,463,140 2
9 (6) Zombieland: Double Tap Sony Pictures $4,315,000 -42% 2,427 $1,778 $66,655,483 4
10 (12) Jojo Rabbit Fox Searchlight $3,942,000 +69% 802 $4,915 $9,117,882 4
11 (7) Countdown STX Entertai… $2,800,000 -51% 1,829 $1,531 $22,232,505 3
12 (11) Parasite Neon $2,552,000 n/c 603 $4,232 $11,278,976 5
13 (9) Motherless Brooklyn Warner Bros. $2,225,000 -36% 1,342 $1,658 $7,382,074 2
14 (8) Black and Blue Sony Pictures $1,875,000 -55% 1,129 $1,661 $19,056,865 3
15 (10) Arctic Dogs Entertainmen… $1,100,000 -62% 2,320 $474 $4,868,345 2
- N Better Days Well Go USA $1,034,341 70 $14,776 $1,034,341 1
- (16) Downton Abbey Focus Features $620,000 -47% 474 $1,308 $95,657,915 8
- (17) Abominable Universal $450,000 -58% 406 $1,108 $59,213,085 7
- (14) Gemini Man Paramount Pi… $430,153 -77% 480 $896 $48,049,000 5
- N Honey Boy Amazon Studios $288,825 4 $72,206 $288,825 1

 

[Tino]

Looks like Dr Sleep will top out with about $40 million domestic.

I wanted it to succeed more for the director Mike Flanagan than anything else.

 

[Adam Lenhardt]

Looks like Dr Sleep will top out with about $40 million domestic.

I wanted it to succeed more for the director Mike Flanagan than anything else.

The movie itself deserves to be successful, too. I want more thoughtful genre films that take their time like Doctor Sleep.

That being said, after seeing Midway, I don't begrudge its better-than-expected performance. I enjoyed it a lot more than I expected to.

 

[Wayne_j]

Finally up, this week's Charting With Dan.

 

[Jake Lipson]

Deadline is currently projecting a $28 million-plus weekend for Ford v. Ferrari in first place.

It's kind of embarrassing that $28 million is enough to top the box office in the middle of November. They're also reporting the budget as $96 million before marketing, which seems awfully high for a period car racing movie. So while that would be a good start, it is also going to have to hang on very well for a good while in order to become profitable. It's also worth noting that this is the first #1 opening for a Fox film since their acquisition by Disney.

Charlie's Angels (which seems to me to be both relatively lightly marketed and probably not very good based on the trailers I did see) is tanking with a projected $10.5 million opening.

And The Good Liar, with IanMcKellen and Helen Mirren, being directed by Bill Condon, is looking at a weekend of $3.8 million for the weekend. Of course, these are early numbers so they could change, but that doesn't look good and would be another bomb for Warner following The Goldfinch, Motherless Brooklyn and Doctor Sleep. They must be extremely thankful for Joker, which is the only thing in the marketplace right now that is really working for them. I'm looking forward to seeing Good Liar, but I'm not really sure what it's doing in this spot; it's obviously aimed at an older audience, but the reviews seem mixed and it doesn't really seem to have any major awards buzz, which other films aimed at this audience right now do. So getting audiences to choose it when they could instead choose things like Ford v. Ferrari, Harriet, Jojo Rabbit or Parasite seems like an uphill battle. I like both of those actors and the director, so I'm in, but it doesn't seem like Warner really conveyed why this should be a priority for most moviegoers.

Joker just crossed $1 billion, becoming the first R-rated film to do that ever, and the seventh film overall this year.

Tellingly, the other six are all either Disney (#1 Endgame, #2 Lion King, #4 Captain Marvel, #5 Toy Story 4, #6 Aladdin) or Disney-adjacent (Spider-Man, at #3, which is a Sony film which Sony paid for and released, but it's still extremely connected to Disney's MCU. and produced by a Disney subsidiary) So Joker is now also the highest-grossing film of the year that doesn't have Disney's fingerprints on it at all.

Disney also has two more coming which seem all but assured of joining the billion-dollar club with Frozen II next week and The Rise of Skywalker in December. It would be completely shocking if both of those didn't do that.

Next week should supercharge things again with the arrival of Frozen II, and I suspect the entire industry is going to benefit from that, because it will drive foot traffic to theaters and get lots of eyeballs on trailers for upcoming films in theaters.