2021 At The Box Office (1 Viewer)

[Jake Lipson]

^Looking at this week's box office, I think Fox made a tragic error in not opening Nightmare Alley this week as originally scheduled instead of going against Spider-Man in two weeks.

Disney is making a lot of strange choices lately with their 20th Century Not Fox titles. They are being really aggressive in promoting West Side Story and seem to really believe in it, which is great. But in addition to Nightmare Alley against Spider-Man as you mentioned, they are putting the Kingsman prequel five days later. It will compete with the second weekend of Spider-Man and Warner's opening of The Matrix Resurrections. I liked the first two Kingsman, but I feel like they are setting this one up to get railroaded by the other bigger films.

Due to the renegotiations with Sony after Far From Home, Disney has a 25% stake in No Way Home even though Sony is the studio releasing it. So perhaps their 25% will help to partially offset any losses from these other films competing against it.

 

[TravisR]

Disney is making a lot of strange choices lately with their 20th Century Not Fox titles. They are being really aggressive in promoting West Side Story and seem to really believe in it, which is great. But in addition to Nightmare Alley against Spider-Man as you mentioned, they are putting the Kingsman prequel five days later. It will compete with the second weekend of Spider-Man and Warner's opening of The Matrix Resurrections. I liked the first two Kingsman, but I feel like they are setting this one up to get railroaded by the other bigger films.

I've seen the trailer for Kingsman a bunch lately and I still totally forgot about it. But yeah, that'll get wiped out. About the Kingsman's only hope is that people that can't get into Spider-Man and they see it instead. Even with that, I think online ticketing will just make people stay home if they can't see Spidey rather than get there, find out Spider-Man is sold out, and then see Kingsman instead.

 

[Jake Lipson]

About the Kingsman's only hope is that people that can't get into Spider-Man and they see it instead.

I think movie theaters are more likely to just add screenings of Spider-Man in the event of a sellout. If something else isn't selling, it can easily be swapped out.

But if there was a movie that would absorb sellout business from Spider-Man, I think Matrix would be second in line for most people in that demographic. Even though Reloaded and Revolutions weren't well-received, there is still a lot of nostalgia for the first film and it will be fun to see Keanu Reeves and Carrie-Ann Moss back together again. This particular Kingsman movie is an odd duck because it is a prequel with a new cast. Taron Egerton made those movies, and while I wouldn't mind seeing this one at some point, it isn't a priority without him.

Before Disney bought them, Fox opened The Secret Service in February as counter programming to Fifty Shades of Grey and The Golden Circle in September opposite The Lego Ninjano Movie. They had the right idea, scheduling-wise, to make them stand out by being an action movie in parts of the calendar when other action tentpoles weren't really coming out. Against Spider-Man and Matrix, they are up against much bigger brands , and with a movie that seems to bear little resemblance to its predecessors. King's Man was in development at Fox before the Disney takeover, and it feels like Disney is hanging this one out to dry.

 

[Jake Lipson]

Charts with Dan for this week:

 

[Tino]

Index

		Movie	Distr	Gross	%LW	Thr	Thr Chng	Per Thr	Total Gross	W
1	N	West Side Story	20th Cent…	$10,500,000		2,820		$3,723	$10,500,000	1
2	(1)	Encanto	Walt Disney	$9,425,000	-28%	3,750	-230	$2,513	$71,345,055	3
3	(2)	Ghostbusters: Afterlife	Sony Pict…	$7,100,000	-31%	3,815	-244	$1,861	$112,004,281	4
4	(3)	House of Gucci	United Ar…	$4,060,749	-42%	3,407	-70	$1,192	$41,032,121	3
5	(5)	Eternals	Walt Disney	$3,100,000	-24%	3,030	-200	$1,023	$161,217,043	6
-	(6)	Resident Evil: Welcom…	Sony Pict…	$1,650,000	-39%	2,572	-231	$642	$15,851,944	3
-	(7)	Clifford the Big Red Dog	Paramount…	$1,325,000	-30%	2,840	-421	$467	$47,708,811	5
-	(8)	Dune	Warner Bros.	$857,000	-54%	948	-269	$904	$106,210,000	8
-	(-)	Venom: Let There be C…	Sony Pict…	$850,000	-15%	1,003	-231	$847	$212,052,968	11
-	(-)	No Time to Die	United Ar…	$586,900	-35%	777	-400	$755	$160,538,078	10
-	(-)	King Richard	Warner Bros.	$530,000	-57%	1,402	-1,252	$378	$14,446,000	4
-	N	National Champions	STX Enter…	$300,000		1,197		$251	$300,000	1
-	(-)	The French Dispatch	Searchlig…	$234,000	-37%	310	-115	$755	$15,551,767	8
-	(-)	C’mon C’mon	A24	$177,322	-62%	569	+4	$312	$1,604,582	4
-	(-)	Licorice Pizza	MGM	$176,350	-27%	4	n/c	$44,088	$1,105,538	3
-	N	Red Rocket	A24	$96,593		6		$16,099	$96,593	1
-	(-)	Ron’s Gone Wrong	20th Cent…	$40,000	-62%	210	-100	$190	$22,959,269	8
-	(-)	Tadap	20th Cent…	$28,000	-51%	50	-13	$560	$114,173	2
-	(-)	Antlers	Searchlig…	$19,000	-56%	145	-35	$131	$10,610,848	7
		19		$41,055,914

 

[Robert Crawford]

The pandemic has taken its toll on movies that need the "senior" demographic to be a box office hit. Of course, every movie's box office receipts have been negatively affected by this pandemic including those that grossed over 100M and 200M.

 

[Wayne_j]

Definitely not what we were hoping for from WSS.

 

[Robert Crawford]

Will this movie appear on Disney+ or any other similar streaming outlet?

 

[Keith Cobby]

Folks will still go out for a family popcorn movie (Spiderman), but anything aimed at more mature (discerning!) audiences hasn't a hope now. The theatrical landscape has been irrevocably changed by covid and streaming. I've been twice this year (Bond, Red Notice) with the family but other than a Chris Nolan film that they didn't want to watch, I wouldn't bother.

 

[Tino]

Will this movie appear on Disney+ or any other similar streaming outlet?

Late January from what I’ve read.

 

[TravisR]

I'm going to tactlessly throw it back in everyone's face when WSS keeps steady earning over the next few weeks. The best part is that if I'm wrong and it just dies, no one will remember this post so I win either way.

 

[Josh Steinberg]

I'm going to tactlessly throw it back in everyone's face when WSS keeps steady earning over the next few weeks. The best part is that if I'm wrong and it just dies, no one will remember this post so I win either way.

I definitely believe that’s in the realm of possibility. Spider-Man will probably burn out quick after bringing in an astonishing haul, and if Matrix is a success that’ll probably be very frontloaded too.

The longer it’s open in theaters, the better the box office split is for them, so they have incentive to give it a chance to have legs.

 

[Patrick Sun]

I doubt The Matrix Resurrections will do all that well, $10-$12 million opening weekend is my guess. My nearby AMC theaters are booking that movie in small-sized theaters.

 

[Josh Steinberg]

I doubt The Matrix Resurrections will do all that well, $10-$12 million opening weekend is my guess. My nearby AMC theaters are booking that movie in small-sized theaters.

Every Wachowski film since the previous Matrixes (Matrices?) has performed below expectations at the box office. I think they (or in this case, Lana) are really interesting filmmakers that do stuff no one else will try but they’re willing to take risks going down paths that audiences aren’t necessarily willing to follow them on, so it’s really hard to know what will happen. On the one hand, it is a return to their biggest success, and Keanu Reeves is having one heck of a resurgence, but on the other hand, the general public doesn’t have fond memories of the other Matrix sequels, and it’s not entirely clear if it’s truly a Keanu resurgence or if it’s just that John Wick is insanely popular.

 

[TravisR]

Every Wachowski film since the previous Matrixes (Matrices?) has performed below expectations at the box office. I think they (or in this case, Lana) are really interesting filmmakers that do stuff no one else will try but they’re willing to take risks going down paths that audiences aren’t necessarily willing to follow them on, so it’s really hard to know what will happen. On the one hand, it is a return to their biggest success, and Keanu Reeves is having one heck of a resurgence, but on the other hand, the general public doesn’t have fond memories of the other Matrix sequels, and it’s not entirely clear if it’s truly a Keanu resurgence or if it’s just that John Wick is insanely popular.

I haven't liked all that many Wachowski movies but I agree that they're interesting filmmakers and I want to see movies from people who take some chances so I'm rooting for The Matrix to do decently. Fortunately, it can't be that expensive of a movie (after all the duds they've had) and box office expectations can't be that high so I think it will get Lana a probably much needed semi-hit and make the studio reasonably happy.

 

[Colin Jacobson]

I'm going to tactlessly throw it back in everyone's face when WSS keeps steady earning over the next few weeks. The best part is that if I'm wrong and it just dies, no one will remember this post so I win either way.

Now you just painted a target on yourself so expect major attacks if "WSS" sinks like a stone!

 

[Jake Lipson]

Charts with Dan for this week:

 

[Malcolm R]

Reports are $121.5 million for Friday for Spider-Man (includes $50 million from Thursday previews). The weekend total should be insane.

 

[Tino]

Wow. Spider-Man the Super Spreader event of the year!

Index

�

		Movie	Distr	Gross	%LW	Thr	Thr Chng	Per Thr	Total Gross	W
1	N	Spider-Man: No Way Home	Sony Pict…	$253,000,000		4,336		$58,349	$253,000,000	1
2	(2)	Encanto	Walt Disney	$6,528,000	-35%	3,525	-225	$1,852	$81,544,607	4
3	(1)	West Side Story	20th Cent…	$3,416,000	-68%	2,820	n/c	$1,211	$17,982,021	2
4	(3)	Ghostbusters: Afterlife	Sony Pict…	$3,400,000	-52%	3,282	-533	$1,036	$117,249,884	5
5	N	Nightmare Alley	Searchlig…	$2,958,000		2,145		$1,379	$2,958,000	1
6	(4)	House of Gucci	United Ar…	$1,854,219	-55%	1,907	-1,500	$972	$44,886,084	4
7	(5)	Eternals	Walt Disney	$1,192,000	-62%	1,900	-1,130	$627	$163,598,293	7
-	(7)	Clifford the Big Red Dog	Paramount…	$399,975	-69%	1,248	-1,592	$320	$48,586,000	6
-	(6)	Resident Evil: Welcom…	Sony Pict…	$280,000	-83%	719	-1,853	$389	$16,732,990	4
-	(10)	Venom: Let There be C…	Sony Pict…	$220,000	-71%	450	-553	$489	$212,413,049	12
-	(-)	The French Dispatch	Searchlig…	$129,000	-48%	180	-130	$717	$15,822,160	9
-	(-)	Licorice Pizza	United Ar…	$89,175	-48%	4	n/c	$22,294	$1,290,182	4
-	(-)	Red Rocket	A24	$80,760	-16%	16	+10	$5,048	$198,895	2
-	(-)	Belfast	Focus Fea…	$76,000	-73%	207	-612	$367	$6,748,260	6
-	(-)	Drive My Car	Janus Films	$46,200	-23%	27	+3	$1,711	$219,382	4
-	(-)	C’mon C’mon	A24	$38,891	-78%	102	-467	$381	$1,771,422	5
-	(-)	Ron’s Gone Wrong	20th Cent…	$21,000	-51%	80	-130	$263	$23,000,592	9
-	N	The Novice	IFC Films	$11,500		37		$311	$11,500	1
-	(-)	The Scary of Sixty First	Utopia	$10,379		3		$3,460	$20,656	3
		19		$273,751,099

 

[TravisR]

Wow. Spider-Man the Super Spreader event of the year!

That chart makes me feel pretty secure about seeing Nightmare Alley this afternoon.


So I guess Disney's plan for its Fox movies was to dump most of them and not care what happens? Obviously, they had to have hopes for West Side Story but NA and Kingsmen were just pumped out without concern for what else was being released. I mean when was the last time a studio released 3 of their movies- all largely aimed at adults- in two and a half weeks?