2022 At The Box Office (1 Viewer)

[steve jaros]

Short legs for "Wakanda", IMO. Similar to "Dr. Strange" I believe. Open at $175m, close at $430m (DOM).

Reminds me of 7-8 summers ago, when it seemed like lots of big SFX films would open at $90m and close at $200m.

Disney can't afford for Avatar 2 to follow that first pattern, I reckon.

 

[Tino]

‘Avatar: The Way Of Water’ Looks To Dive In With Half-Billion-Plus Global Opening Weekend – Box Office Preview​

‘Avatar: The Way Of Water’ Looks To Dive In With Half-Billion-Plus Global Opening Weekend – Box Office Preview

'Avatar The Way Of Water' Eyes $500 Million+ Global Box Office Opening

deadline.com

 

[Tino]

‘Avatar: The Way Of Water’ Opens To $134M; Why Pic’s Box Office Fate Will Be Determined Through The Holidays – Sunday AM Update

'Avatar: The Way of Water' Seeing $55M Friday, $150M Opening Weekend

deadline.com

 

[Joe Wong]

Box office is tough (or lacking in current content) when a re-release of Elf (2003) makes the top 10 for Friday!

‘Avatar: The Way Of Water’ Opens To $134M; Why Pic’s Box Office Fate Will Be Determined Through The Holidays – Sunday AM Update

'Avatar: The Way of Water' Seeing $55M Friday, $150M Opening Weekend

deadline.com

EDIT: the list in the article may not be complete or final.

 

[Patrick Sun]

Just rummaging through my AMC app, you would tell a very low percentage of Avatar 2 ticket buyers were attending the non-3D/IMAX/DC/premium screens this opening weekend. They were mostly showing up at the premium screens for the maximum viewing experience for this film.

 

[Lord Dalek]

Apparently the only good news for Avatar is coming out of India. Its falling short of projections everywhere else.

 

[Josh Steinberg]

The trades indicate the studio and Cameron aren’t concerned so I see no reason to be either. This was never about having a record breaking opening weekend. This was about pleasing the audience that did show up so that word of mouth could propel it through the next couple months and I expect that will happen.

 

[Wayne_j]

I expect this to have legs.

 

[TravisR]

The trades indicate the studio and Cameron aren’t concerned...

I think one reason they aren't concerned is that they and the industry know that the projections were wildly divorced from reality.

 

[Josh Steinberg]

I would have seen it this weekend were it not for the flu infiltrating my house. Given that it’s one of the most severe and early peaking respiratory illness seasons on record, I can’t be the only one who planned on going and got sidelined. Between that and people busy getting ready for the holidays, I think there are lots of potential audience members just waiting for their chance or ready to be persuaded by positive word of mouth. And it’s sort of a spoiler-proof movie - it’s about the experience and immersion of watching it more than it is about answering burning questions the audience has been waiting years to have solved. It’s not like Spider-Man where there was both an ongoing story and massive spoilers to lure people in quickly.

I think one reason they aren't concerned is that they and the industry know that the projections were wildly divorced from reality.

Agreed. This movie is going to double the opening weekend gross of the original, in the middle of a pandemic, a harsh flu season, and during a global recession. Not bad for a sequel to a 13 year old film that is often criticized as having made no cultural impact.

 

[Tino]

I guess I’ll just post this here too

‘Avatar: The Way Of Water’ Seeing $45M Saturday, Putting James Cameron Sequel At $135M Opening – Late PM Update​

Studios/Disney’s Avatar: The Way of Water minted an estimated $45M Saturday which will put the James Cameron directed sequel at a 3-day opening of $135Mper sources. That’s the 6th best domestic debut in December after Spider-Man: No Way Home ($260.1M), Force Awakens ($247.9M), Last Jedi ($220M), Rise of Skywalker ($177.3M) and Rogue One: A Star Wars Story ($155M).

Despite Avatar: The Way of Water missing its $150M-$175M projections, the town doesn’t seem bothered –nor do they believe that the sky is falling for cinema– particularly for a movie that cost according to sources (not Disney) at about around $460M before P&A.

First of all, the exits for Avatar 2 are excellent (A CinemaScore, 91% and 5 stars on ComScore/Screen Engine PostTrak), and provide confidence that the film will hold. In fact, it already is. Avatar 2‘s Friday to Saturday decline is only -15%. That’s the best Friday-to-Saturday hold for a year-end tentpole release of late beating Rise of Skywalker (-47%), Force Awakens(-43%), Spider-Man: No Way Home (-39%), The Last Jedi (-39%), and Rogue One (-35%).

‘Avatar: The Way Of Water’ Opens To $134M; Why Pic’s Box Office Fate Will Be Determined Through The Holidays – Sunday AM Update

'Avatar: The Way of Water' Seeing $55M Friday, $150M Opening Weekend

deadline.com

 

[Tino]

I expect this to have legs.

Yup. It’s not how you start. It’s how you finish.

 

[benbess]

Overall, total movie theater revenues, even next year, are still expected to be more than 25% below what they used to be....

"In the last pre-pandemic year, 2019, global box office hit an all-time high of $42.3 billion. At current exchange rates, Gower Street’s 2023 forecast is still 27 percent behind the average of the last three pre-pandemic years of 2017-2019."

Global Box Office Forecast to Hit $29B in 2023 But Remain Well Below Pre-Pandemic Levels

Gower Street's annual forecast expects further double-digit growth next year after a 21 percent jump in 2022.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

Even a huge hit like Wakanda Forever, which so far has made $775 million worldwide, seems like it might be a more or less break-even movie, given its $250 million dollar budget. Once merchandise, streaming, and other things are taken into account, however, I assume it will be solidly profitable.

But the last big Disney animated movie, Strange World, lost probably $150 million. The Worldwide box office was 55m against a budget of 180m. Advertising costs might be another $100m on top of that.

Spielberg's latest movie has so far made 8 million against a budget of 40 million.

Amsterdam grossed $31 million against an $80 million dollar budget.

The list of money-losing movies for 2022 seems to go on and on.

Streaming and home video help, of course, but I still wonder if some kind of industry-wide retrenchment in terms of movie costs might be in the works.

 

[Tino]

‘Avatar: The Way Of Water’ Opens To $134M; Why Pic’s Box Office Fate Will Be Determined Through The Holidays – Sunday AM Update​

Disney’s Avatar: The Way of Water is coming in close to where we told you last night: $44.5M for Saturday and an opening weekend of $134M. The global $435M start of Avatar 2 puts Disney very close to notching the $4 billion mark worldwide for the year.

Despite Avatar: The Way of Water missing its $150M-$175M projections, rival distribution sources and exhibition aren’t bothered –nor do they believe that the sky is falling for cinema– particularly for a movie that cost according to sources (not Disney) at about around $460M before P&A. When it comes to the ultimate fate of Avatar 2, which was propped greatly by Imax, PLF and premium 3D ticket sales this weekend at 62%, we have to play the long-game, determining its fate when we get through the holidays as each day from Monday through New Year’s weekend, is like a Saturday at the box office. Media outlets at the time of Titanic and Avatar‘s play immediately declared them bombs before they respectively became the highest grossing movies of all-time (the former before the latter).

‘Avatar: The Way Of Water’ Opens To $134M; Why Pic’s Box Office Fate Will Be Determined Through The Holidays – Sunday AM Update​

SUNDAY AM WRITETHRU after Saturday PM Update: Refresh for more analysis and chart 20th Century Studios/Disney’s Avatar: The Way of Water is coming in close to where we told you last night: $4…

deadline.com

 

[Josh Steinberg]

Streaming and home video help, of course, but I still wonder if some kind of industry-wide retrenchment in terms of movie costs might be in the works.

I think they’re long overdue for some serious self-reflection, and I don’t necessarily think there’s one single solution but rather an across-the-board series of tweaks, changes and attitude adjustments.

For years, studios have thought about home video/cable/streaming revenue as a bonus. It’s probably time instead to consider all of those venues part of a film’s lifecycle and to make budgets not based on a best case theatrical scenario but based on how much a property can reasonably be expected to make over, say, a year across various venues and platforms.

They have to look at things like spending $80 million to make movies like Amsterdam. An $80 million movie needs to gross $200+ million to break even theatrically, and given the current theatrical landscape, has just 2-3 weeks to do that. I saw the movie and I’m at a loss for why it needed to cost $80 million. There needs to be some real soul searching there. The question can’t be just “are these talented people worth working with?”. It has to be, “Does this seem like a movie that can make $200 million in three weeks?” Most movies no longer have legs - the industry isn’t built for that anymore. They can no longer budget films as if they will. What used to be legs is now replaced by home video and licensing fees from subscription streaming.

This has happened before in Hollywood history. The 1970s auteur filmmaking craze hit a point of diminishing returns as budgets began soaring out of control and ultimately that had to be reigned in. The late 1950s/1960s large format, high budget, frequently musical craze hit a point of diminishing returns and had to be reigned in.

 

[Tino]

Index

		Movie Title	Distributor	Gross	%LW	Theaters	Theaters Change	Per Theater	Total Gross	Weekends In Release
1	N	Avatar: The Way of Water	20th Century…	$134,000,000		4,202		$31,890	$134,000,000	1
2	(1)	Black Panther: Wakanda Forever	Walt Disney	$5,400,000	-52%	3,380	-345	$1,598	$418,991,185	6
3	(2)	Violent Night	Universal	$5,000,000	-43%	3,525	-198	$1,418	$34,962,085	3
4	(3)	Strange World	Walt Disney	$2,200,000	-42%	2,870	-690	$767	$33,778,060	4
5	(4)	The Menu	Searchlight …	$1,700,000	-39%	1,875	-835	$907	$32,122,499	5
6	(5)	Devotion	Sony Pictures	$825,000	-59%	2,211	-1,247	$373	$18,660,954	4
7	(7)	The Fabelmans	Universal	$750,000	-36%	955	-18	$785	$8,665,926	6
8	(6)	Black Adam	Warner Bros.	$500,000	-62%	1,304	-839	$383	$167,722,380	9
9	(9)	I Heard the Bells	Fathom Events	$308,893	-59%	426	-754	$725	$4,993,048	3
10	(-)	Elf		$278,500		270		$1,031	$178,100,000	998
11	(-)	Empire of Light	Searchlight …	$235,000	+44%	436	+326	$539	$471,821	2
12	(10)	Spoiler Alert	Focus Features	$208,000	-69%	771	-12	$270	$1,246,358	3
13	(11)	Ticket to Paradise	Universal	$172,000	-72%	531	-863	$324	$67,943,135	9
14	(-)	The Whale	A24	$169,827	-49%	6	n/c	$28,305	$596,136	2
-	(-)	Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile	Sony Pictures	$135,000	-59%	423	-510	$319	$46,475,866	11
-	(-)	The Mean One	Atlas Distri…	$108,000	-51%	146	-16	$740	$442,350	2
-	(-)	The Banshees of Inisherin	Searchlight …	$104,000	-37%	165	-105	$630	$8,795,205	9
-	(-)	Prey for the Devil	Lionsgate	$75,000	-55%	159	-127	$472	$19,757,519	8
-	(-)	EO	Janus Films	$59,500	+49%	33	+19	$1,803	$238,650	5
-	(-)	TÁR	Focus Features	$42,000	-37%	63	-17	$667	$5,455,313	11
-	(-)	All The Beauty And The Bloodshed	Neon	$34,295	-24%	48	+13	$714	$217,921	4
-	(-)	She Said	Universal	$33,000	-81%	121	-357	$273	$5,806,175	5
-	(-)	Decibel	Wide Lens Pi…	$2,361	-79%	3	-13	$787	$58,529	3
		23		$152,340,376

 

[Bryan^H]

Yup. It’s not how you start. It’s how you finish.

"That's what she said"

 

[benbess]

Tár is another movie that didn't do well financially compared to its costs. I read somewhere that this exquisitely made but gloomy epic cost about $35 million—and as we see above it's earned less than $6 million so far.

As Josh reminded us, there have been several past cycles of expansion and retrenchment when it comes to movie costs.

In the parallel world of TV retrenchment seems to have already begun, according to a few recent articles I found, such as this one....

"HBO Max and other studios have also asked for 20 to 30% reductions in tv series budgets, and will not approve any other projects above a certain amount. Disney will also be reducing their content spending by 10%. Consequently, film and television production have aggregately decreased by almost 25% in Los Angeles county."

Massive Film & TV Layoffs: Media Companies Begin Firings and Consolidation - Hollywood Insider

Consolidation has begun for many major media companies, leaving the industry hesitant to create new and bold projects during a difficult time for the economy amidst layoffs.

www.hollywoodinsider.com

PS This amusing New Yorker comic from 1999 seems somehow maybe even more relevant today....

 

[Jake Lipson]

Theaters can always add more standard showtimes to meet demand over a big opening weekend, but they can't add more premium screens than they have in their theaters. The Way of Water is a long movie made even longer by the ridiculous amount of trailers and ads being shown before all movies these days. If people want to see the film in premium auditoriums like IMAX, there are an inherently limited number of screenings in one weekend for those formats. I think this is one of those rare movies where people will wait to see it in a premium format later rather than accepting a regular screening of the same movie. I just checked the seating chart for the closest IMAX near me, which has a screening starting in about 20 minutes. It looks crowded. Standard screenings I've glanced at are much less busy. Disney had to expect this result, and they will continue to have access to the premium screens for several more weeks. They're playing the long game with this movie.

 

[TravisR]

Standard screenings I've glanced at are much less busy.

The theater closest to me (with no premium screens) has had all of its standard screens at least 3/4 full from about 9 AM to 8 PM today. Considering it's playing 18 times today, that's very busy for that theater.

Amusingly, you can almost see people doing the math on the length of the movie because all the shows after 8 PM go from having dozens of people to about 4 people in them.