2022 At The Box Office (1 Viewer)

[Jake Lipson]

Amusingly, you can almost see people doing the math on the length of the movie because all the shows after 8 PM go from having dozens of people to about 4 people in them.

I think that's another factor working against a record-breaking opening. People aren't going to decide to see a movie this long on a whim. They're going to make it appointment viewing when they know they can spare the amount of time the movie requires. That means more advance planning than some people usually do, which also suggests a long run and not necessarily rushing out on opening weekend.

 

[Tino]

Great analysis.

THIS WEEKEND One of the most highly anticipated motion pictures of the year finally arrived as James Cameron's epic sci-fi sequel Avatar: The Way of Water opened at number one with an estimated $134M in North America and $435M globally.

Some had expected more in the domestic market, however the road ahead is extremely promising given stellar word-of-mouth and the upcoming holiday calendar when moviegoers will become more available. Domestically the new Avatar pic tied The Batman for the fifth biggest opening of the year behind Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness ($187.4M), Black Panther: Wakanda Forever ($181.3M), Jurassic World: Dominion ($145.1M) and Thor: Love And Thunder ($144.2M).

The mighty weekend for Water kicked off with $53M on Friday including $17M from Thursday pre-shows that began early at 3pm. Saturday dipped only 16% to $44.5M and Sunday is projected by Disney to drop 18% to $36.5M. 13 years ago when Fox released the first Avatar, the final weekend gross of $77M ended up rising $4M from the weekend estimate of $73M.

4,202 domestic locations played the new Pandora adventure with the weekend average coming out to a sturdy $31,890. Audiences were attracted to the premium screen options thanks to Cameron's reputation for delivering unique 3D visuals. 3D screens accounted for 57% of the gross while all premium screens represented 62% of the gross. These are huge numbers by today's standards. By comparison, 3D shares earlier this year were 14% for Doctor Strange and 11% for Thor.

While not sensational, reviews for the new Avatar were very positive and helped to boost interest in a franchise that for many seemed old. The die-hard franchise fans were always going to come out but pulling in a broader audience is key to reaching profitability on a project estimated to cost about $400M to produce. But the film did account for 89% of all sales in the top ten this weekend.

Word of mouth was even better. The A grade from CinemaScore matched its predecessor and the 94% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes bodes well for the road ahead. Even PostTrak polling came in super at 5 out of 5 stars. These are only slightly behind Top Gun: Maverick metrics (A+, 99%, 5/5). All this points to plenty of business ahead from those who didn't feel the need to rush out on opening weekend. Plus there is minimal action competition over the next four weeks.

2009's Avatar had a similar release calendar and it dipped only 2% on the second weekend for Christmas and then just 9% on the third weekend for New Year's. As a sequel, Water may not duplicate those numbers so larger drops are likely, but reaching $450M by the end of the long third weekend is certainly possible with all of January still to go. Oscar nominations that month could keep the party going too.

The overseas launch was everywhere and the estimate of $300.5M was a colossal start. Top international openings were China $57.1M, Korea $24.7M, Germany $19.9M, France $19.3M, and India at $18.1M which in a rare case beat out the UK (where the film's world premiere took place) which debuted to $14.2M.

China has been a volatile market of late. Weeks ago it looked like much of the country's theaters would still be on lockdown, then a quick reopening happened, and now a fast covid spread is once again closing some theaters and making many people rethink gathering in large indoor spaces with strangers. It remains to be seen how the days and weeks ahead will be in a market which loves this property so much. Regardless, the new Avatar by New Year's Day should become only the third movie of 2022 to break the one billion dollar global mark.

Following its five-week reign atop the box office, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever settled for second place with an estimated $5.4M, dropping 52%, giving the Marvel sequel $419M domestic to date. It's the second highest grossing movie of 2022 - so far - and with $367.5M overseas the global tally is now $786.5M.

The Santa thriller Violent Night held up well against the return of the Na'vi slipping 43% in its third weekend to an estimated $5M for $35M overall for Univesal.

Disney's animated flop Strange World followed with an estimated $2.2M, down 42%, for a dismal $33.8M cume after the fourth weekend. Totals at this point for recent Disney original Thanksgiving offerings were $81.5M for last year's Encanto (during the Omicron wave) and $150.7M for 2017's Coco.

The Ralph Fiennes suspense hit The Menu stayed in the top five for a fifth time with an estimated $1.7M, dropping 39%, putting the Searchlight film at $32.1M to date. Sony's military dramaDevotion fell 59% to an estimated $825,000 putting the sum at $18.7M.

Steven Spielberg has struggled to sell tickets for his latest awards contender The Fabelmanswhich followed with an estimated $750,000 sliding 36%. Universal has been expanding the pic and is now in close to 1,000 theaters but has collected only $8.7M overall with this weekend's average hitting just $785.

Super hero action took eighth place with The Rock's big-budget entry Black Adam grossing an estimated $500,000 in its ninth weekend which coincided with its streaming release on HBOMax. Warner Bros. saw a steep 62% drop putting the domestic total at $167.7M. Overseas markets have kicked in $223M for a worldwide take of $391M which is underwhelming for a pricey project anchored by one of Hollywood's most bankable stars.

The Christmas carol film I Heard the Bells grossed an estimated $309,000 this weekend, down 59%, and raised its cume to $5M. Sam Mendes rounded out the top ten with his latest drama Empire of Light which expanded from 110 to 436 theaters and took in an estimated $235,000 for a very mild average of just $539. Cume to date is $472,000.

The top ten films grossed an estimated $150.9M which was down 46% from the same weekend a year ago when Spider-Man: No Way Home opened to a record $260M, but up 37% from pre-pandemic 2019 when Jumanji: The Next Level debuted to $59.3M

Weekend Box Office

 

[Jake Lipson]

The Way of Water opened at #12 for the year after just four days (three days if you want to consider Thursday grosses as part of Friday.) It has already outgrossed the entire run of all but eleven films at the domestic box office this year.

I think Disney has every reason to be thrilled with this opening.

If the movie falls off a cliff in the weeks to come and it turns out to be abandoned after opening weekend, then they would have reason for concern. But as we've been discussing, Cameron's films don't typically perform like that, and there is a clear runway for it to play well into the new year. The next mega-tentpole isn't until Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantmania in February, which is also Disney's film. So they're fine.

 

[benbess]

Kim Masters on Hollywood’s Year of Wishful Thinking

This year brought some big box office wins — never underestimate Tom Cruise — but mostly it was a time for film execs to stanch bleeding, rethink radical change and figure out how to get consumers to magically forget all about that whole direct-to-streaming thing.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

"....Even with the spectacular performance of Top Gun and a handful of other successful films, it has been an anemic year for movies. Through the first week of December, domestic theatrical grosses (about $7.2 billion) fell about 35 percent from pre-pandemic numbers in 2019, according to Comscore. There were also roughly 35 percent fewer wide releases (67, as opposed to 105 in 2019), largely due to COVID production stoppages and postproduction delays. That’s a recipe for trouble. “To me it’s not just about the number of releases, but about the frequency and consistency of their release,” says Comscore’s Paul Dergarabedian. “It’s a momentum business. When that’s not happening and you have Wakanda Forever five weeks in a row at the top of the chart, that’s not a formula for success. You can’t just have one movie every few weeks that’s doing well.”

The number of wide releases — movies with some meaningful exclusive window — is expected to increase to something in the neighborhood of 106 in 2023, giving studio executives hope. “Volume was so low this year that people threw their hands up,” says a top studio exec. “You go on Fandango and nothing is there. After a while, you stop looking.”

Adult dramas — aka awards fodder — have performed especially miserably. Various theories have been put forward as to why. One high-level film executive says that recovery for the genre will “particularly take time. I think it will. It doesn’t have to come back to 100 percent but to 80, 90 percent.” Another expresses more skepticism. “Adults are fine with waiting. I don’t need to see The Fabelmans in a theater.” (Harsh words about a Spielberg movie, but here we are.)

If all this is going to work, one distribution executive says, it would be helpful if studios moved toward greater consistency on the window issue — though not in a collusion-y way, of course...."

****

I disagree that only epic special effects heavy movies work better in a theater. Movies that are smaller scale in terms of some things, but maybe bigger in terms of emotion, work better in a theater too.

 

[Keith Cobby]

I have watched more films theatrically this year than any year since the 1980s. However, this isn't due to a lot of wonderful 'must see' new releases, but the rerun of the Bond series in the UK. Streaming seems to be the main reason for decline, as big actioners like Top Gun bring people out but other smaller scale character driven films (older fare) can be more comforably (and cheaply) enjoyed at home on our large panels or projectors. Quality family films should still get customers into cinemas and hopefully more older films will be rerun.

 

[Tino]

‘Avatar: The Way Of Water’ Heads For $17M+ Tuesday – Box Office

20th Century Studios/Disney’s Avatar: The Way of Water’s Tuesday box office is looking at $17M, and could possibly topple Minions: Rise of Gru’s first Tuesday of $17.5M to become …

deadline.com

 

[Tino]

Christmas Delivers Box Office Miracle For ‘Avatar: The Way Of Water‘ Despite Winter Weather: James Cameron Sequel Finals At $95.5M+ 2nd Weekend

Total weekend box office over Christmas weekend for all titles is estimated to come in at an estimated $85.5 million, well off from last year.

deadline.com

 

[Tino]

Chart Index

		Movie Title	Distributor	Gross	%LW	Theaters	Theaters Change	Per Theater	Total Gross	Weekends In Release
1	(1)	Avatar: The Way of Water	20th Century…	$56,000,000	-58%	4,202	n/c	$13,327	$253,681,686	2
2	N	Puss in Boots: The Last Wish	Universal	$11,350,000		4,099		$2,769	$17,452,855	1
3	N	Whitney Houston I Wanna Dance With Somebody	Sony Pictures	$5,300,000		3,625		$1,462	$5,300,000	1
4	N	Babylon	Paramount Pi…	$3,500,000		3,343		$1,047	$3,500,000	1
5	(3)	Violent Night	Universal	$3,140,000	-38%	2,562	-963	$1,226	$41,608,460	4
6	(2)	Black Panther: Wakanda Forever	Walt Disney	$3,022,000	-43%	2,250	-1,130	$1,343	$425,677,401	7
-	(5)	The Menu	Searchlight …	$617,000	-62%	840	-1,035	$735	$33,796,843	6
-	(7)	The Fabelmans	Universal	$550,000	-26%	1,122	+167	$490	$9,724,456	7
-	(4)	Strange World	Walt Disney	$410,000	-81%	1,390	-1,480	$295	$35,599,242	5
-	(6)	Devotion	Sony Pictures	$180,000	-77%	427	-1,784	$422	$19,263,075	5
-	(12)	Empire of Light	Searchlight …	$71,000	-68%	350	-86	$203	$667,584	3
-	(-)	The Banshees of Inisherin	Searchlight …	$36,000	-64%	80	-85	$450	$8,891,686	10
-	N	Corsage	IFC Films	$32,000		2		$16,000	$32,000	1
-	(14)	Ticket to Paradise	Universal	$24,000	-86%	105	-426	$229	$68,062,570	10
-	(-)	TÁR	Focus Features	$15,000	-64%	36	-27	$417	$5,503,533	12
		15		$84,247,000

 

[Lord Dalek]

JFTR the drop between the first Avatar's first and second weekends was approximately 2%.

 

[TravisR]

JFTR the drop between the first Avatar's first and second weekends was approximately 2%.

And to give that record some very necessary context, there wasn't apocalyptic weather in vast stretches of the country between the first and second weekends for the first movie.

 

[Lord Dalek]

And to give that record some very necessary context, there wasn't apocalyptic weather in vast stretches of the country between the first and second weekends for the first movie.

Ticket prices were also a lot cheaper, 3D surcharges were nowhere near as high as they were now, Youtube video lengths were 10 minutes preventing 3 hour videos about why the first film was a poorly written white savior narrative, etc. etc.

But yeah if its the weather's fault then clearly James Cameron is finally paying for his deal with the devil.

 

[TravisR]

Ticket prices were also a lot cheaper, 3D surcharges were nowhere near as high as they were now,

Sure, prices are higher today but they have no bearing on your original point about the week to week drop off.

But yeah if its the weather's fault then clearly James Cameron is finally paying for his deal with the devil.

OK that did make me laugh.

 

[Joe Wong]

JFTR the drop between the first Avatar's first and second weekends was approximately 2%.

The domestic opening weekend for Avatar was $77m, while Avatar 2 returned $134m. So, different starting points.

 

[Wayne_j]

Definitely a bigger drop off from what I was expecting, but the weather this weekend probably had a fair amount to do with it.

 

[Tino]

Christmas Delivers Box Office Miracle for ‘Avatar: The Way Of Water’ Despite Winter Weather: Does James Cameron Pic 2nd 4-Day Weekend Have Shot At Near $100M?​

MONDAY AM: Despite some parts of the country being under 43 inches of snow, and some communities even having driving bans, Christmas delivered more money to Disney/20th Century Studio’sAvatar: The Way of Water than anticipated. Instead of hitting the studio’s anticipated $21.5M yesterday, the James Cameron directed sequel delivered $29.5M sending the pic’s 3-day to $64M, -52%, with Disney raising its 4-day outlook to $90M. That Christmas Day take is more than what Rogue One: A Star Wars Story made on its Sunday holiday back in 2016, that being $25.8M. That’s the pic which has been used as a comp to Avatar 2. Rivals believe Avatar 2‘s second 4-day weekend can get to $97M-$100M with most off from work today and all schools and colleges on break. Disney says $26M today, Others believes it’s $33M to $36M. We will see. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story posted a 4-day second weekend of $96.1M.

More here

Christmas Delivers Box Office Miracle For ‘Avatar: The Way Of Water‘ Despite Winter Weather: James Cameron Sequel Finals At $95.5M+ 2nd Weekend

Total weekend box office over Christmas weekend for all titles is estimated to come in at an estimated $85.5 million, well off from last year.

deadline.com

 

[Tino]

I think today will exceed projections too. Anecdotally pretty much every IMAX 3D showings near me are sold out all day.

We’ll see.

 

[TravisR]

I think today will exceed projections too. Anecdotally pretty much every IMAX 3D showings near me are sold out all day.

We’ll see.

Like you said, it's just anecdotal but all the premium shows closest to me are basically sold out today (terrible seats like the first row or two are open but no way would I pay $24 for that). I was considering seeing it again today but even the 3D shows at my local theater have been packed all day until a newly added 10:30 PM show.

 

[Tino]

‘Avatar: The Way Of Water’ Jumps to $955M WW Through Monday, Will Hit $1B With Tuesday Grosses​

‘Avatar: The Way Of Water’ Jumps to $955M WW Through Monday, Will Hit $1B With Tuesday Grosses

By Nancy Tartaglione
December 27, 2022 9:50am

'Avatar: The Way of Water'Disney
Refresh for latest…: James Cameron’s Avatar: The Way of Water is close to the $1B global box office mark, having more than handily crossed $900M worldwide through its second Monday. This is the latest benchmark for the long-in-the-works sequel and comes just 13 days after its global rollout began. With $955.1Mthrough Monday, The Way of Water has become the third-highest grosser of 2022 and the fourth-biggest film of the pandemic era. What’s more, it is expected to hit the $1B worldwide milestone with today’s turnout.

RELATED STORY​

Christmas Delivers Box Office Miracle For ‘Avatar: The Way Of Water‘ Despite Winter Weather: James Cameron Sequel Finals At $95.5M+ 2nd Weekend​

Through Monday, the split is $293.2M domestic and $661.9M at the international box office. Internationally, Way of Water now stands as the No. 2 release of 2022 and No. 3 studio title of the pandemic era.


Midweeks last week were very strong, and the sci-fi epic is continuing that trend this week with vacations in full swing and a lot of holiday distractions in the rearview. France and Italy, for example, saw their best days of play on this week’s Monday since the film opened.
Monday’s total offshore haul was $52.2M, domestic’s was $31.5M.
The Top 5 overseas markets through Monday are China ($104.5M), France ($60.5M), Korea ($55.4M), Germany ($41.5M) and India ($39.2M).
On Tuesday, and not included in the totals above, the 20th Century Studios/Disney sci-fi epic rose to a running cume of $108.7M in China per local estimates. Ticketing service Maoyan has increased its projections again, now seeing a $170M final. In Korea, local estimates bring the cume through Tuesday to $58.2M.

 

[Tino]

Here’s the chart for the weekend of Dec. 23-26.

1) Avatar: The Way of Water (Dis/20th) 4,202 theaters, Fri $19.5M (-63%), Sat $15M, Sun $29.5M, Mon $31.5M, 3-day $64M (-52%)/4-day $95.5M/Total: $293.2M/ Wk 2

2) Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (Uni) 4,099 theaters, Fri $3.8M, Sat $2.8M, Sun $5.8M Mon $6.8M 3-day $12.44M, 4-day $19.2M/Total $26.1M/Wk 1

3) I Wanna Dance With Somebody (Sony) 3,625 theaters, Fri $2M Sat $825K Sun $1.94M Mon $1.99M3-day $4.7M 4-day $6.75M/Wk 1

4) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Dis) 2,250 (-1130) theaters, Fri $1M (-30%) Sat $800K Sun $1.7M Mon $2M 3 day $3.5M (-35%)/4-day $5.5M/Total $428.2M/Wk 7

5) Babylon (Par) 3,343 theaters Fri $1.47M Sat $590KSun $1.54M Mon $1.25M 3-day $3.5M 4-day $4.85M/Wk 1


6) Violent Night (Uni) 2,562 (-966) Fri $960K (-33%) Sat $780K Sun $1.8M Mon $1.18M 3-day $3.54M(-30%) 4-day $4.7M Total $43.1M/Wk 4

7) The Whale (A24) 603 (+597) theaters, Fri $300K (+512%), Sat $208K Sun $500K Mon $551K 3-day $1M (+597%) 4-day $1.55M Total $3.1M/Wk 38)

8) Fabelmans (Uni/Amb) 1,122 (+167) theaters, Fri $130K (-43%), Sat $160K Sun $460K Mon $360K 3 day $750K (+1%), 4-day $1.1M Total $10.2M/Wk 7

9)The Menu (Sea) 840 (-1035 theaters), Fri $175K(-65%) Sat $145K Sun $360K Mon $373K 3-day $680K (-58%) 4-Day $1M Total $34.2M/Wk 6

10) Strange World (Dis) 1,390 (-1,480) theaters, Fri $145K (-72%) Sat $110K Sun $175K Mon $225K 3-day $430K (-81%) 4-day $655K Total $35.8M/Wk 5
The Thanksgiving release, which is one of the biggest Disney animated bombs ever, is available to watch on Disney+.

 

[Josh Steinberg]

FWIW, expect a slow weekend coming up. With NYE falling on Saturday and NYD on Sunday, many theaters will have reduced times and/or early closures.