Captain Marvel (2019) (2 Viewers)

[Josh Steinberg]

Black Panther sold out its opening night IMAX showings in NYC almost instantly. Tickets were literally disappearing off the seating chart faster than I could select them.

Captain Marvel has a similar opening date and is in a comparable position in terms of audience awareness and engagement. Half the tickets to the first IMAX show are gone, all of the others ones are pretty much entirely full. While I have no doubt that these will sell out or be mostly sold out by the time the date arrives, tickets are not moving at the same speed in NYC as other Marvel Phase 3 origin movies.

 

[Jake Lipson]

While the comparison to Black Panther makes sense because it's a Marvel origin movie opening in the spring, I think that was a special case where it became a cultural phenomenon rather than just a regular movie. While I have no doubt that Captain Marvel will do extremely well, I don't think Marvel has any expectation that it will replicate the enormous grosses of Black Panther.

It's also worth noting that because Captain Marvel is going in March and Avengers is still in the end of April, that's roughly one month less distance between the two than Black Panther (a February opening) had before Infinity War came along last year. So it will run into direct competition from its own sequel sooner than Black Panther did, as well.

 

[Josh Steinberg]

I’m surprised that on day one, it appears to be behind not only Black Panther but also Doctor Strange, and Ant-Man And The Wasp as well. A lot can change between now and then, but there seems at least the potential for this to be Marvel’s lowest grossing Phase 3 title.

 

[dpippel]

I can only speak for myself of course, but nothing I've seen so far makes me want to be there on opening night or even opening weekend, fighting the crowds. For all of the early hype surrounding this film, my reaction to the trailers and other promotional stuff has been decidedly ho-hum. It looks, well, kinda boring.

 

[Jake Lipson]

I think Ant-Man and the Wasp suffered a little bit by coming out after Infinity War but not being the sequel to that film. I think it was easier for people to ignore because it was largely self-contained and didn't appear to connect to the larger narrative (with the credits scene excluded) at a time when people mostly just wanted answers to the cliffhanger from Infinity War. If you took out the post-credits scene of Ant-Man and the Wasp, it could have been released prior to Infinity War just as well as after it, and I'm not sure there was an appetite for that coming off such a high-stakes ending.

Captain Marvel may have the same issue, although it appears that Marvel considers it significant in terms of the overall story they're trying to tell. It's obvious that they want us to meet Carol through this film rather than "backdoor piloting" her into Endgame and then doing her solo film later, as was the case with Black Panther and Spider-Man in Civil War.

Introducing her in Endgame and then doing her solo film after that would almost surely result in larger grosses for Captain Marvel than this order will, so I think it is clear that there is something in this film which will feed directly into Endgame, which is why they have to put it first. The question is whether the marketing can convey that to the general non-fanboy masses, and whether that's enough to get them to show up or not. We'll see.

 

[Adam Lenhardt]

I'm expecting it to do roughly Doctor Strange-level business, unless the buzz picks up significantly between now and its release date.

Wonder Woman beat it to the punch, and is a far more recognizable superhero to boot.

 

[Jake Lipson]

If Captain Marvel is good, the next one will be much bigger, because then she'll get the Avengers bump from having appeared in Endgame.

Even if the opening is not huge, word-of-mouth might help, especially if it is clear from this film how it feeds into Endgame.

If they can hold the screens once the summer starts, it's also possible that people who skip it in March might be interested in seeing it after Endgame if they like her appearance in that film. But it would have to do well enough upfront to maintain a presence in theaters after Endgame starts in order for that to happen.

But I also think it's going to do very well anyway. I don't think Marvel is worried. If Adam is right and it matches Doctor Strange, that's a win for them. Not every Marvel film has to be enormous in order to work.

 

[Tommy R]

As a sort-of-sometimes-MCU-fan, I feel more inclined in seeing this with it coming BEFORE Avengers 4 than if it came after. Though I guess whatever Avengers 4 ends up being will determine my overall feelings on my continuing to follow ALL the threads for the sake of the bigger MCU continuity. Infinity War's gimmicky ending still has me rolling my eyes, so Avengers 4 better be something REAL special, or I'm just gonna stick with the Thor and Ant-man stand alone films (if they even make any more).

As of now, though, I'll try to make it to a theater and see Captain Marvel when it comes out.

 

[Jake Lipson]

or I'm just gonna stick with the Thor and Ant-man stand alone films (if they even make any more).

I think Ant-Man 3 is a relative certainty. $622 million worldwide, an improvement of $103 million versus the first installment, is nothing to sneeze at. Plus, he hasn't appeared in an Avengers film yet, and that's almost always worth a bump in gross versus the prior film. And the Ant-Man film,ms have been less expensive than some of the others in the MCU, which means they don't have to do quite as well in order to be profitable.

Thor 4 would be more questionable based on the status of Hemsworth's contract, which I believe is up after Endgame. That's not to say they wouldn't extend it if he wants to extend it, but I do not believe he is contractually obligated to do more, and if he did he would probably want a pay bump. So the future of that character probably depends on contractual negotiations, not to mention where Endgame leaves him (which I don't know.)

As far as Captain Marvel is concerned, I am really excited about seeing it, but I have an out-of-town event on March 8. So I don't expect to see this on Thursday preview, but will be there on opening weekend at some point. My theater doesn't do reserved seating except in their premium auditorium, which I almost never use, so I don't think I'll need advance tickets if I'm not doing the Thursday preview show. They've already got two screens booked for advance tickets, and nothing sells out here in the mid-afternoon showtimes I usually go to. So I'm sure I'll get to it on opening weekend, but I'm also fine just getting the ticket at the box office prior to the showtime.

 

[dpippel]

 

[Jake Lipson]

I think that's the best-looking clip I've seen yet. I love her calling out Fury for use of the SHIELD logo.

 

[Jeff Adkins]

I'm not sure what time they actually went on sale, but I got the email from AMC notifying me they were on sale at 6:55 p.m. and went immediately to reserve a ticket. I was very surprised that the opening night Dolby Cinema screening at 7:00 p.m. was already half full. That was certainly not the case with Ant-Man & The Wasp (at least at this particular theater). I'm not sure that means anything in the grand scheme of things, but I was certainly surprised by it.

 

[Jake Lipson]

New featurette with interviews:

 

[Tino]

New featurette with interviews:

Ugh. Every subsequent trailer and clip I see makes it seem worse. And now I can’t get Crawdaddy’s comment about her “baby voice” out of my head. That’s all I hear now.

 

[Josh Dial]

This is a strange thread.

 

[Robert Crawford]

Ugh. Every subsequent trailer and clip I see makes it seem worse. And now I can’t get Crawdaddy’s comment about her “baby voice” out of my head. That’s all I hear now.

Don't blame me as I like the latest trailer.

 

[Sam Favate]

Still very much looking forward to this. I just bought tickets for March 9 for the whole family.

 

[Patrick Sun]

Colored me surprised when I checked on Thursday night 7pm (March 7th) seating availability, and had to quickly snag some top row seats near the side aisles at my local AMC Imax theater (Thanks, A-List!). Couldn't believe all the other seats were bought up already. I could have gotten better seats for the 10:30pm showing that night, but I just can't stay up that late due to work the next day).

 

[dpippel]

New theater system specific posters have been released:

 

[Adam Lenhardt]

Fandango is reporting that this is trailing only Avengers: Infinity War and Black Panther for volume of advance ticket sales.