2019 At The Box Office (1 Viewer)

[Jake Lipson]

By all means, you can answer how you want. And you're right, it doesn't really matter when you see something. However, I keep track of all the movies I see in a given year, so at the end of the year like this I start to become aware of how many more I have left before I switch over to beginning the count for the new year. It's not ultimately a big deal whether or not I see something in December or in January, but I do kind of think about it at the end of the year in terms of the sum total of the year in moviegoing, if that makes sense.

Also, @Colin Jacobson, I think you're missing a slash in the end quote section of your post, because right now the post above mine is entirely in the quote box as if I said all of it, including your message.

 

[Colin Jacobson]

By all means, you can answer how you want. And you're right, it doesn't really matter when you see something. However, I keep track of all the movies I see in a given year, so at the end of the year like this I start to become aware of how many more I have left before I switch over to beginning the count for the new year. It's not ultimately a big deal whether or not I see something in December or in January, but I do kind of think about it at the end of the year in terms of the sum total of the year in moviegoing, if that makes sense.

Also, @Colin Jacobson, I think you're missing a slash in the end quote section of your post, because right now the post above mine is entirely in the quote box as if I said all of it, including your message.

Fixed - thanks!

 

[Tino]

I think TROS will end up with about $600 million domestic.

 

[Josh Steinberg]

A colossal failure!

 

[TravisR]

I've already seen it three times. My fourth time will be on Sunday in 3-D at an IMAX theater.

How am I not in the lead of this race? I've seen it twice so far and will be seeing it again tonight. I don't know when I'll get to viewing #4 but it'll happen (so will viewing 5 and 6 and 7 and...).

 

[Josh Steinberg]

I was going to see a 9am show this morning, but instead I had bacon on an English muffin and hash browns. I know the movie is great and I will see it again but I have no regrets!

 

[Robert Crawford]

How am I not in the lead of this race? I've seen it twice so far and will be seeing it again tonight. I don't know when I'll get to viewing #4 but it'll happen (so will viewing 5 and 6 and 7 and...).

My fourth viewing tomorrow might be my last one. I might try to catch it once more before it leaves my local cinema.

 

[Malcolm R]

from the-numbers.com

Cats isn’t living up to lowered expectations, as it only managed $2.62 million on Friday and Universal is projecting an $8 million debut as a result. Furthermore, its reviews are a disaster and the film only managed a C plus from CinemaScore, which is the kind of rating you see for horror movies, not musicals.

Yikes.

 

[Edwin-S]

I'm sure, for me, that one viewing or possibly two will be enough for this particular film.

 

[Wayne_j]

Deadline is reporting $193.7 million which is lower than both The Force Awakens, and The Last Jedi, but is definitely still solid and better than Disney's low ball $175 million pre weekend estimate.

 

[Tino]

1 N Star Wars: The Rise o… Walt Disney $175,500,000 4,406 $39,832 $175,500,000 1
2 (1) Jumanji: The Next Level Sony Pict… $26,125,000 -56% 4,227 n/c $6,181 $101,936,365 2
3 (2) Frozen II Walt Disney $12,300,000 -36% 3,665 -413 $3,356 $386,533,961 5
4 N Cats Universal $6,500,000 3,380 $1,923 $6,500,000 1
5 (3) Knives Out Lionsgate $6,125,000 -33% 2,535 -878 $2,416 $89,573,909 4
6 (19) Bombshell Lionsgate $5,075,000 +1,490% 1,480 +1,476 $3,429 $5,484,281 2
7 (4) Richard Jewell Warner Bros. $2,565,000 -45% 2,502 n/c $1,025 $9,517,518 2
8 (7) Queen & Slim Universal $1,850,000 -48% 1,078 -482 $1,716 $36,598,765 4
9 (5) Black Christmas Universal $1,800,000 -58% 2,625 n/c $686 $7,248,650 2
10 (6) Ford v. Ferrari 20th Cent… $1,800,000 -56% 1,433 -1,462 $1,256 $101,961,608 6
11 (8) A Beautiful Day in th… Sony Pict… $1,300,000 -60% 1,524 -1,331 $853 $52,495,051 5
- (13) Parasite Neon $460,000 -27% 227 -79 $2,026 $21,205,409 11
- (9) Dark Waters Focus Fea… $312,000 -84% 451 -1,659 $692 $10,067,609 5
- (34) A Hidden Life Fox Searc… $250,000 +396% 5 n/c $50,000 $322,143 2
- (14) Uncut Gems A24 $232,000 -57% 5 n/c $46,400 $1,009,864 2
- (18) Jojo Rabbit Fox Searc… $186,000 -50% 230 -170 $809 $20,393,194 10
- (16) Last Christmas Universal $155,000 -66% 274 -342 $566 $34,843,055 7
- (11) Midway Lionsgate $155,000 -82% 283 -1,136 $548 $55,883,729 7
- (12) Playing with Fire Paramount… $149,941 -77% 287 -1,094 $522 $43,723,000 7
- (15) Joker Warner Bros. $140,000 -70% 201 -352 $697 $333,453,468 12
- (17) Harriet Focus Fea… $113,000 -73% 203 -445 $557 $42,224,530 8
- (22) Maleficent: Mistress … Walt Disney $107,000 -35% 180 -165 $594 $112,916,674 10
- (29) Abominable Universal $61,000 -18% 146 -13 $418 $60,533,660 13
- (20) Honey Boy Amazon St… $59,243 -75% 85 -302 $697 $2,849,567 7
- (24) Terminator: Dark Fate Paramount… $45,935 -66% 120 -130 $383 $62,196,000 8

 

[Tino]

Deadline is reporting $193.7 million which is lower than both The Force Awakens, and The Last Jedi, but is definitely still solid and better than Disney's low ball $175 million pre weekend estimate.

Not so fast. Now they’re saying $179 million.

 

[Tino]

Www.Boxofficeguru.com

Analysis

THIS WEEKEND The final chapter in the Skywalker Saga opened to huge numbers, except when compared to the most recent films in the Skywalker Saga. Better than Cats at least.

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker opened to $175.5M this weekend, according to estimates, from 4,406 theaters for a per screen average of $39,832. This is currently the 12th highest opening weekend in history. Unfortunately, it fell far behind the $220M opening of The Last Jedi from 2017 and the $247.9M opening of The Force Awakens from 2015. Critics were mixed and even opening weekend audiences gave the film a B+ CinemaScore, behind the A grades both of the previous films received. Overseas the film opened with $198M for a worldwide launch of $374M. It's strange to feel that a $175.5M opening is "weak" but could Star Wars fatigue finally be settling in? What does this mean for the future of the franchise? All that being said, the holiday season is known for allowing films to make more money over a longer period of time so when all is said and done, we may forget about the opening and just concentrate on the final numbers.

Falling 56% in its second weekend into second place was the action-comedy sequel Jumanji: The Next Level which took in an estimated $26M bringing its total up to $101.9M. The original film took in an astounding $50M in its second weekend back in 2017, nearly taking down The Last Jedi which was in its third weekend. Welcome to the Jungle ended its run with $404M, showing remarkable legs during the holiday season and into the new year. It doesn't appear The Next Level will have the same legs, but a final total in the $200 range is certainly doable.

Disney was back in third place with the animated sequel Frozen II which added an additional $12.3M this weekend, according to estimates, bringing its cume up to $386M after five weekends. Worldwide its total stands at an amazing $1.1B with more to come. It currently stands at #29 on the all-time worldwide charts.

There are flops. And then there's Cats. The $95M movie musical crashed and burned this weekend taking in a paltry $6.5M from 3,380 theaters for a per screen average of $1,923. Critics ravaged the film while audiences gave it a poor C+ CinemaScore. Now, a couple of years ago another movie musical, The Greatest Showman, debuted with only $8.8M before a long and magical run that saw it finish with $174M. That film however had an A grade from audiences and mixed reviews from critics. I don't think Cats is going to come within sniffing distance of even $30M when all is said and done making it one big, expensive flop.

The best hold in the top 10 went to Knives Out which slipped only 33% this weekend to an estimated $6.1M, bringing its total up to $89.5M after a month in theaters. A visit to the $100M club is certainly in order. Awards-hopeful Bombshell took in an estimated $5M this weekend from 1,408 theaters for a per screen average of $3,429, good, but not great. Critics are on the positive side of mixed but it may not be enough for this one to break through with better reviewed adult oriented films still to come. Speaking of movies that didn't hit, Clint Eastwood's Richard Jewell fell 45% in its second weekend to an estimated $2.56M after a poor opening. It doesn't appear this one will stick around either this season, unless it somehow picks up some awards buzz over the next couple of weeks.

 

[Tino]

UPDATED, CHRISTMAS DAY: For what is expected to be one of the slowest days of the year at the box office (we’re talking Christmas Eve), Disney’s Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker had a fantastic day grossing an estimated $20M, which makes it the second best Christmas Eve for a Star Wars pic behind Force Awakens ($27.4M), and ahead of Last Jedi ($17.6M) and Rogue One ($15.3M). Skywalker even had a fantastic hold when compared to its previous holiday released chapters, -32% yesterday from Monday, which is a better hold than Last Jedi‘s Christmas Eve (-40%), Rogue One (-33%) and just behind Force Awakens’ hold between Dec. 23 and 24 (-28%).

 

[Tino]

J.J. Abrams' Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker is crushing the Christmas Day box office with as much as $35 million, the second best showing of all time behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($49.3 million), according to early estimates.

Rise of Skywalker will have no trouble staying atop the chart for the five-day holiday frame. Based on its Christmas Day performance, the tentpole could take in $150 million between Wednesday and Sunday, its second weekend.

 

[Colin Jacobson]

J.J. Abrams' Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker is crushing the Christmas Day box office with as much as $35 million, the second best showing of all time behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($49.3 million), according to early estimates.

Rise of Skywalker will have no trouble staying atop the chart for the five-day holiday frame. Based on its Christmas Day performance, the tentpole could take in $150 million between Wednesday and Sunday, its second weekend.

Will be interesting to see if it outperforms "Last Jedi".

For the 1st 2 trilogies, the middle chapter performed the worst. I assumed that would happen here but the lackluster reviews and the lower-than-"Last Jedi" opening made me skeptical.

But now... maybe it beats "Last Jedi"?

 

[Tino]

Will be interesting to see if it outperforms "Last Jedi".

For the 1st 2 trilogies, the middle chapter performed the worst. I assumed that would happen here but the lackluster reviews and the lower-than-"Last Jedi" opening made me skeptical.

But now... maybe it beats "Last Jedi"?

I think it has better word of mouth than TLJ so it’s possible.
TLJ opened with $225 million on its way to $620 million. A 2.8x multiplier

TROS opened to $177 million and with the same multiplier would reach about $500 million domestically.

After this weekend it should be at about $400 million.

Does it have another $225 million in its tank? Dunno.

 

[Colin Jacobson]

I think it has better word of mouth than TLJ

Which is funny, since "Rise" got such mediocre reviews and the fan reaction I've seen online has been so mixed.

I guess "real people" - aka, not weirdos like us - enjoyed it more!

 

[Jake Lipson]

I think it's also important to note that given the compressed time frame between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year, Rise of Skywalker also opened a week later than the other films -- and closer to the holiday. It's possible that may have impacted people deciding to wait until Christmas or later to see it, rather than going out earlier in its run.

 

[Robert Crawford]

I think it's also important to note that given the compressed time frame between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year, Rise of Skywalker also opened a week later than the other films -- and closer to the holiday. It's possible that may have impacted people deciding to wait until Christmas or later to see it, rather than going out earlier in its run.

Great point!