2018 At The Boxoffice (1 Viewer)

[Tino]

Boxoffice guru analysis.

THIS WEEKEND With the snap of a finger more box office records crumbled to dust as Avengers: Infinity War scored a terrific second weekend while still in complete control of the worldwide marketplace. In North America, the Marvel giant grossed an estimated $112.5M, dropping 56% from its record-breaking debut, to propel the cume to a staggering $450.8M after only 10 full days of play becoming the top-grossing movie ever from the month of April.

The decline was in the same vicinity as recent MCU films which also kicked off the summer movie season. Second weekend drops over the last few years were 56% for Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 from last year, 60% for 2016's Captain America: Civil War, and 59% for Avengers: Age of Ultron from 2015. Should Infinity War follow the same trajectory that Guardians did, it would end up with $706M. But the new Thanos pic has the advantage of limited direct competition in the third weekend so it could very well hold up a little better.

Infinity War also generated the second biggest second weekend gross of all time edging out the $111.7M of Black Panther from just three months ago and trailing only the $149.2M of Star Wars: The Force Awakens during the Christmas holiday frame in 2015. The new Avengers zoomed up the all-time domestic blockbusters chart this weekend to land at number 15 right behind Ultron's $459M. By Saturday, it should crush the $500M mark and enter the all-time Top 10. Infinity War and Black Panther may very well deliver to Marvel and Disney back to back $700M+ domestic hits.

Global domination was in play again for Infinity War which captured another $162.6M this weekend from 54 overseas markets including a record-breaking $17.6M opening weekend in Russia. The new Marvel moneymaker is already the top grossing movie of all-time in Brazil, Indonesia and the Philippines, and is the second highest grossing Hollywood film ever in India behind only The Jungle Book.

The international cume smashed through the $700M mark becoming the first film in 2018 to do so. The latest numbers put the new Avengers at $713.3M overseas and $1.16 billion worldwide without any sales from China. That market is expected to deliver an explosive debut when it arrives next weekend as pre-sales are already red hot there. Ultron did $235.5M and Civil War did $190.4M, but Thanos is expected to top those numbers by the end of the run in that lucrative market giving Infinity War a clear shot at reaching a $2 billion finish.

Marvel reached another box office milestone this weekend as the 19-film Marvel Cinematic Universe broke the $16 billion mark in combined global grosses. The latest numbers through this weekend are now $6.42 billion domestic and $9.59 billion international with an even 40/60 split. That's a stunning average of $843M per film! The total will soar past $17.5 billion by the end of this summer as Infinity War plays on and July brings Ant-Man and the Wasp.

Leading the way for all the other films in the marketplace was the new comedy remake Overboard which enjoyed a fantastic start opening in second place with an estimated $14.8M. MGM and Lionsgate went out in 1,623 theaters but averaged a muscular $9,088 per site powered by a diverse audience. The debut beat out the $12.3M bow of star Eugenio Derbez's How To Be a Latin Lover from a year ago, which also opened at number two nationwide. The audience breakdown was 61% female and 83% over 25 and the A- CinemaScore indicates that good word of mouth should allow the PG-13 comedy to be a popular choice next weekend for Mothers Day and beyond. Negative reviews were mostly ignored by moviegoers.

Still showing great legs was the low-budget thriller A Quiet Place with an estimated $7.6M in its fifth frame, sliding only 31% for the lowest decline among all wide releases. With a massive $159.9M, the sleeper hit is now Paramount's highest grossing film since Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation from the summer of 2015. The $17M-budgeted hit has taken in an additional $95.4M from overseas markets for a robust $255.3M global total.

 

[Adam Lenhardt]

April 2018 first-ever billion dollar April at box office

 

[Jake Lipson]

Interestingly, Box Office Mojo is officially counting Infinity War as a spring release because the official start of the summer movie season is the first weekend of May. I get why they would make that choice, but I feel like it's still a summer blockbuster release which happened to arrive a little earlier than May this year, so I personally would start the "summer" movie season with its arrival. This also speaks to Hollywood needing to put out big titles year-round, and that the idea of the "summer movie season" may be becoming slightly antiquated.

 

[Robert Crawford]

Interestingly, Box Office Mojo is officially counting Infinity War as a spring release because the official start of the summer movie season is the first weekend of May. I get why they would make that choice, but I feel like it's still a summer blockbuster release which happened to arrive a little earlier than May this year, so I personally would start the "summer" movie season with its arrival. This also speaks to Hollywood needing to put out big titles year-round, and that the idea of the "summer movie season" may be becoming slightly antiquated.

Frankly, I think calling a movie that opens in April a summer blockbuster release is stretching it when school is still in session and Memorial Day is still almost three weeks away from today, May 9th. TBH, I think the summer blockbuster season shouldn't begin until Memorial Day weekend, but that's just my opinion.

 

[Jake Lipson]

I think the summer blockbuster season shouldn't begin until Memorial Day weekend, but that's just my opinion.

And originally, it didn't. There was some big movie in the early 2000s that decided to go earlier than Memorial Day and worked there, so then the studios opened up blockbuster season to include all of May on a regular basis. I don't remember what movie it was that caused the change, but there was one.

Personally, I think the idea of peak seasons and off-seasons needs to change; the studios need to be looking at the entire 365-day calendar and put good product everywhere. Right now, theaters make the bulk of their money in the summer and in the holiday season, and they're struggling to fill seats the rest of the time. The last weekend in April was considered one of the deadest on the calendar, but Infinity War had the best opening ever there. The near-$700 million record-smashing success of Black Panther opening in February also demonstrates this. If you have content people want to see, they'll come out for it no matter what the date is.

By all means, they should continue putting big titles in the summer and for the holidays, but the notion that these are the only times to release movies the studios believe are their biggest titles needs to go away. Big titles should be placed every month. hat would not only help the theater owners keep the lights on, but might help to avoid crunches where big titles like Deadpool and Solo are one right after the other and may infringe on each other's business.

 

[Vic Pardo]

When I was in public school, the summer blockbuster season began on July 1st, the day after school ended, only we didn't call it the summer blockbuster season back then, we just called it..."summer."

When I began my life as a full-time employee, the summer blockbuster season began at the start of summer, on June 21, only we didn't call it the summer blockbuster season back then, we just called it..."summer."

At some point, after Spielberg and Lucas got their hooks into studio release patterns, the summer blockbuster season began a little earlier than summer, at some point, I forget when, starting on the Memorial Day weekend. That's when we began calling it..."the summer blockbuster season."

With the success of AVENGERS INFINITY WARS in April, and other, similar successes in recent years, I propose that we call March-April-May..."the SPRING blockbuster season." And then, when summer actually starts, then THAT will be the start of "the Summer blockbuster season." What could be simpler?

I mean, if we start calling spring "summer" then crops will fail, bees will stop pollinating plants, food riots will break out, the waves will inundate coastal cities and we'll all be doomed. We don't want that, do we? All that does is give Roland Emmerich a new excuse to make a film. And we really don't want that, do we?

That is all.

 

[Malcolm R]

Yeah, I'm not sure why we would begin labeling the season by the type of movies released, rather than by the calendar.

It's been proven over and over that good films with high interest will attract huge crowds regardless of when they're released. We don't need to "expand" the summer season, the studios just need to release better films year round instead of trying to cram all the big movies into three months and releasing the dreck during so-called "slow" times. By doing so, the studios themselves create the boom/bust cycle at the box office. It has nothing to do with the seasons.

 

[Robert Crawford]

When I was in public school, the summer blockbuster season began on July 1st, the day after school ended, only we didn't call it the summer blockbuster season back then, we just called it..."summer."

When I began my life as a full-time employee, the summer blockbuster season began at the start of summer, on June 21, only we didn't call it the summer blockbuster season back then, we just called it..."summer."

At some point, after Spielberg and Lucas got their hooks into studio release patterns, the summer blockbuster season began a little earlier than summer, at some point, I forget when, starting on the Memorial Day weekend. That's when we began calling it..."the summer blockbuster season."

With the success of AVENGERS INFINITY WARS in April, and other, similar successes in recent years, I propose that we call March-April-May..."the SPRING blockbuster season." And then, when summer actually starts, then THAT will be the start of "the Summer blockbuster season." What could be simpler?

I mean, if we start calling spring "summer" then crops will fail, bees will stop pollinating plants, food riots will break out, the waves will inundate coastal cities and we'll all be doomed. We don't want that, do we? All that does is give Roland Emmerich a new excuse to make a film. And we really don't want that, do we?

That is all.

Those of us on the East Coast back in the day, always had their last day of school in late June. Our first day of school was the day after Labor Day. I've lived in the Midwest most of my adult life and they usually have their last day of school before Memorial Day and their first day of school is in August.

 

[Jake Lipson]

Yeah, I'm not sure why we would begin labeling the season by the type of movies released, rather than by the calendar.

Hollywood has done this for years. For purposes of the box office, the "summer" is considered to be the first weekend of May through Labor Day weekend. I'm not suggesting that we, personally, change the calendar to widen summer in terms of the actual seasons, but Hollywood has been operating under a different definition of summer for years.

 

[Malcolm R]

One of a multitude of reasons they live up to the name "Hollyweird".

 

[Tino]

That would be mighty impressive, but I don’t think it is likely. I think $700 million is the goal to wonder if it will reach.

It would need like a 2.72x domestic multiplier to get to 700M.

That would be about halfway between the first film, which was slightly better than 3x, and Ultron, which was about 2.4x.

We’ll have to see what the drops look like the next couple of weekends.

Looks like you’re going to be right Sean as my original estimate was a bit too lofty it seems.

Right now it’s tracking for a domestic total of about $650-700 million.

Is that a domestic “disappointment”? That it may not reach Black Panthers numbers?

 

[Josh Steinberg]

I think Disney is smart enough to recognize that Black Panther was a once-in-a-generation cultural phenomenon, and is smart enough to have not expected Infinity War to do the same. Thanks to Avengers 1 and 2, the studio knows what a reasonable expectation is for an Avengers film - approximately $1.5 billion worldwide. The first one took in more domestically than the second, but the worldwide total was about the same for both. So I would imagine that that's what they expected and that anything else is gravy.

Disney was smart enough to know this with Star Wars: The Force Awakens as well. They went out of their way in multiple investor calls in the following quarters to remind their investors that the grosses for TFA were a once in a lifetime thing, and shouldn't be taken as representative for what subsequent Star Wars movies would do. And I'm sure Disney knows that Black Panther 2 is unlikely to have the same gross, but that doesn't make them any less interested in making Black Panther 2.

Investors, stock holders, and entertainment journalists who see it only as a horse race might be disappointed. But those at Disney who actually greenlight the films, approve the budgets, and put together the calendar know the reality of the situation, and I'm sure they're enormously pleased with the result for Avengers. To have two $200+ million openings about two months apart from each other is pretty incredible. Or, over a five month span from December to April, they had three $200 million openings (The Last Jedi). That's incredible.

I also think that while journalists who don't understand the business and just view it as "more, more, more!" will be sounding notes of doom and gloom when Ant-Man 2 doesn't open with $200 million, Disney will be very happy with the $90-100 million that it is likely to open with.

 

[Jake Lipson]

Right now it’s tracking for a domestic total of about $650-700 million.

If it comes in on the higher end of those expectations, that would actually be about equal to where Black Panther is ending up.

I doubt Disney could've told you six months ago that Infinity War might be lower-grossing than Black Panther, but I doubt they're disappointed. They have both, so whichever one comes out on top, they're probably going to get a conga line going in their offices regardless.

 

[Adam Lenhardt]

Two weeks in and Infinity War has already outgrossed Age of Ultron's entire run. It would have to plummet like a rock not to exceed the first Avengers's box office. So I'm sure Disney's fine with its performance.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Captain Marvel moved up to mid-February, though -- especially if post-production goes smoothly.

 

[Jake Lipson]

I wouldn't be surprised to see Captain Marvel moved up to mid-February, though -- especially if post-production goes smoothly.

I agree and I've been saying that for a while. They certainly didn't expect Black Panther to be playing this strong into the run of Infinity War, and a March debut for Captain Marvel gives it even less time before it would have to overlap with Avengers 4. February 2019 currently has both Silver & Black (Sony's next non-MCU Spider-Man spinoff knockoff) and X-Men: Dark Phoenix, but the MCU is the strongest brand of those by far, so I think it could withstand the move to February just fine and give itself some more breathing room as compared to Avengers 4 (which I fully expect to move to the end of April again.)

Another interesting question: Black Panther is now on digital services for in-home viewing, and the disc lands Tuesday, meaning it will be advertised in store flyers on Sunday (at least stores that still have store flyers...*cough* probably not Best Buy *cough.*) Given the film's newfound home availability, how much is it going to drop this weekend? I'm assuming Disney wants to march it to $700 million, and it's currently at $694m, so they probably can, but it may not happen as quickly as it would if the disc weren't imminent. My copy has already been shipped, so as much as I liked the movie, I don't feel like I need to go back to it this weekend.

 

[Robert Crawford]

I agree and I've been saying that for a while. They certainly didn't expect Black Panther to be playing this strong into the run of Infinity War, and a March debut for Captain Marvel gives it even less time before it would have to overlap with Avengers 4. February 2019 currently has both Silver & Black (Sony's next non-MCU Spider-Man spinoff knockoff) and X-Men: Dark Phoenix, but the MCU is the strongest brand of those by far, so I think it could withstand the move to February just fine and give itself some more breathing room as compared to Avengers 4 (which I fully expect to move to the end of April again.)

Another interesting question: Black Panther is now on digital services for in-home viewing, and the disc lands Tuesday, meaning it will be advertised in store flyers on Sunday (at least stores that still have store flyers...*cough* probably not Best Buy *cough.*) Given the film's newfound home availability, how much is it going to drop this weekend? I'm assuming Disney wants to march it to $700 million, and it's currently at $694m, so they probably can, but it may not happen as quickly as it would if the disc weren't imminent. My copy has already been shipped, so as much as I liked the movie, I don't feel like I need to go back to it this weekend.

I doubt Black Panther makes it to 700M as too many movies are opening up now.

 

[Jake Lipson]

I doubt Black Panther makes it to 700M as too many movies are opening up now.

It's still playing here in the first-run theaters and hasn't even gone to the second-run dollar places yet. I don't see it completely losing all of its screens just yet. I'm also sure Disney would love to have $700m as a nice round number and rarefied achievement to brag about. Sony managed to keep Jumanji in theaters long enough to get $1 million past Spider-Man and claim the title of their highest-grossing release of all time even after the Blu-ray came out. But yeah, if it were to happen it would take exceptional strength by Black Panther in the face of the new films as well as its own disc.

Or...you know...they could always squeeze it past $700m next February when it receives a re-release following a Best Picture Oscar nomination. But I'm sure they'd prefer to do it now.

 

[Robert Crawford]

It's still playing here in the first-run theaters and hasn't even gone to the second-run dollar places yet. I don't see it completely losing all of its screens just yet. I'm also sure Disney would love to have $700m as a nice round number and rarefied achievement to brag about. Sony managed to keep Jumanji in theaters long enough to get $1 million past Spider-Man and claim the title of their highest-grossing release of all time even after the Blu-ray came out. But yeah, if it were to happen it would take exceptional strength by Black Panther in the face of the new films as well as its own disc.

Or...you know...they could always squeeze it past $700m next February when it receives a re-release following a Best Picture Oscar nomination. But I'm sure they'd prefer to do it now.

This weekend will determine whether BP has a chance. If each day is below 1M then it won't in my opinion.

 

[Jake Lipson]

Disney has also re-expanded A Wrinkle in Time this weekend for some reason. My theater which already closed it brought it back. It seems like Disney wants to march that to $100m, since it's just shy, but I don't think they'll be able to have both. They may not be able to have either. We'll see.

 

[Robert Crawford]

Disney has also re-expanded A Wrinkle in Time this weekend for some reason. My theater which already closed it brought it back. It seems like Disney wants to march that to $100m, since it's just shy, but I don't think they'll be able to have both. They may not be able to have either. We'll see.

I don't know where you live, but BP has closed in my part of mid-Michigan which is why I doubt the 700M achievement.