2018 At The Boxoffice (1 Viewer)

[Adam Lenhardt]

When I lived in Rochester, there was a second-run theater called Movies 10 that had $3 matinees, $4 evening shows and $2 movies all day on Tuesdays. I believe that was a Cinemark as well. Some unruly crowds, and the occasional unsavory character, but it was a cheap way to see movies on the big screen as a poor college student.

Black Panther is over $694 million after yesterday. It probably made another half-million today and is likely to make another half-million tomorrow. So that will leave about $4.2 million to go. It made almost exactly that between Friday 5/4 and Thursday 5/10.

I do think it's going to crawl over the $700 million mark, but I think it's going to take a couple more weeks.

 

[Robert Crawford]

When I lived in Rochester, there was a second-run theater called Movies 10 that had $3 matinees, $4 evening shows and $2 movies all day on Tuesdays. I believe that was a Cinemark as well. Some unruly crowds, and the occasional unsavory character, but it was a cheap way to see movies on the big screen as a poor college student.

Black Panther is over $694 million after yesterday. It probably made another half-million today and is likely to make another half-million tomorrow. So that will leave about $4.2 million to go. It made almost exactly that between Friday 5/4 and Thursday 5/10.

I do think it's going to crawl over the $700 million mark, but I think it's going to take a couple more weeks.

Yeah, it's going to take more than next weekend to cross the $700M mark. It might take until just before the Memorial Day weekend.

 

[Sean Bryan]

$61.8M weekend estimate for Infinity War, which is a 46% drop in its third domestic weekend.

$200M opening weekend estimate in China.

This brings the film to $1.606M world wide. A $2B world wide final total is a good possibility.

 

[Tino]

Top 10. Boxofficemojo

Change Theater Count / Change Average Total Gross Budget* Week #
1 1 Avengers: Infinity War BV $61,817,000 -46.1% 4,474 - $13,817 $547,829,103 - 3
2 N Life of the Party WB (NL) $18,500,000 - 3,656 - $5,060 $18,500,000 - 1
3 N Breaking In (2018) Uni. $16,500,000 - 2,537 - $6,504 $16,500,000 $6 1
4 2 Overboard (2018) PNT $10,100,000 -31.3% 2,006 +383 $5,035 $29,593,977 - 2
5 3 A Quiet Place Par. $6,400,000 -17.6% 3,144 -269 $2,036 $169,552,634 $17 6
6 4 I Feel Pretty STX $3,710,000 -26.5% 2,858 -374 $1,298 $43,856,576 $32 4
7 5 Rampage (2018) WB (NL) $3,380,000 -27.1% 2,548 -603 $1,327 $89,744,663 $120 5
8 6 Tully (2018) Focus $2,240,000 -31.8% 1,356 +3 $1,652 $6,980,060 - 2
9 7 Black Panther BV $1,932,000 -40.6% 1,370 -271 $1,410 $696,186,611 - 13
10 15 RBG Magn. $1,165,000 +101.9% 180 +146 $6,472 $2,002,767 - 2

 

[Adam Lenhardt]

On one hand, the unbelievable success of Black Panther belied the conventional wisdom that movies with predominantly black casts wouldn't play well overseas -- $645 million foreign gross is certainly nothing to sneeze at.

On the other hand, it's amazing just how much stronger Infinity War is playing overseas than Black Panther. Black Panther made 52 percent of its gross domestically. The domestic box office only accounts for 34 percent of Infinity War's gross so far, and that percentage is likely to drop as it continues to open huge in international markets.

 

[Jake Lipson]

it's amazing just how much stronger Infinity War is playing overseas than Black Panther.

Good observation. I hadn't noticed the breakdown yet myself but you're absolutely right. I think the difference can be explained at last partially by how many known characters are in Infinity War. Yes, Civil War was used to set up Black Panther, but he was a supporting character in that film, and it didn't soar as high as it would have if they had actually put The Avengers in the title. Comparatively, audiences know they're going to love Infinity War almost before they buy tickets because it brings together so many characters that they have invested in from other films over the past decade. Even though it's Marvel, Black Panther is simply a harder sell because it's new. Obviously, that didn't matter in the US, but maybe it does in other cultures. Just a guess.

 

[Hanson]

While Infinity War has already beaten the WWBO of Black Panther, I'm starting to wonder if it can overtake it domestically. We're getting into the thick of the summer season, and 150mil+ needed seems like a lot looking at the upcoming release schedule. They probably squeezed out another 100mil by pushing it up a week into April as it is.

The fan service nature of the film helped it a lot because anyone who was a fan of any of the franchises involved wanted to go see it, resulting in a record opening weekend. But it was never going to do that well with newbies and casuals as far as repeat viewing is concerned, which handicapped its legs.

 

[Colin Jacobson]

While Infinity War has already beaten the WWBO of Black Panther, I'm starting to wonder if it can overtake it domestically. We're getting into the thick of the summer season, and 150mil+ needed seems like a lot looking at the upcoming release schedule. They probably squeezed out another 100mil by pushing it up a week into April as it is.

The fan service nature of the film helped it a lot because anyone who was a fan of any of the franchises involved wanted to go see it, resulting in a record opening weekend. But it was never going to do that well with newbies and casuals as far as repeat viewing is concerned, which handicapped its legs.

Seems likely "Deadpool 2" will dent "Infinity War" heavily - though the former's "R"-rating may blunt some of the damage.

In a weird way, "D2" might help "Infinity" - all those kids who can't get into "D2" due to its rating might wanna get their superhero fix anyway and will see "Infinity" instead.

Still, another Marvel movie inevitably has to hit the one that's been out for 4 weeks...

 

[Hanson]

In a weird way, "D2" might help "Infinity" - all those kids who can't get into "D2" due to its rating might wanna get their superhero fix anyway and will see "Infinity" instead.

In a more likely and realistic scenario, kids will buy Infinity tickets and then sneak into Deadpool. I remember the South Park guys hearing that the screenings for South Park:Bigger Longer Uncut were jam packed and some other PG-13 movie was doing oddly good box office, which led them to conclude kids were buying tickets for the other movie and sneaking into South Park BLU

 

[Jake Lipson]

In a weird way, "D2" might help "Infinity" - all those kids who can't get into "D2" due to its rating might wanna get their superhero fix anyway and will see "Infinity" instead.

Or, since Infinity War will still have the most showtimes of anything that isn't Deadpool, it is the most likely film they would buy tickets to in order to try to sneak into Deadpool.

Quick edit to acknowledge that Hanson beat me to essentially the same observation while I was in the process of typing this post.

 

[mattCR]

In a more likely and realistic scenario, kids will buy Infinity tickets and then sneak into Deadpool. I remember the South Park guys hearing that the screenings for South Park:Bigger Longer Uncut were jam packed and some other PG-13 movie was doing oddly good box office, which led them to conclude kids were buying tickets for the other movie and sneaking into South Park BLU

This became so problematic a theater near us stationed a ticket taker right outside of the South Park BLU screen to verify tickets as people were buying tickets to something else to slip in; South Park: BLU remains one of only two movies I've ever actually been carded at the door.

 

[Adam Lenhardt]

South Park: BLU remains one of only two movies I've ever actually been carded at the door.

What was the other one?

 

[Sean Bryan]

The weekend actuals for Infinity War came in slightly higher at $62.078M for a 45.9% drop.

 

[mattCR]

What was the other one?
View attachment 46292

Shortbus. I still have no idea how I got dragged to this; saw in an art theater.

 

[Malcolm R]

$18.6 million in Thursday previews for DP2. A record for an R-rated film, and about $5m ahead of the first film. That number also puts it in the same ballpark as the preview numbers for the first Avengers and Jurassic World, both of which topped $200m for the first weekend.

 

[Tino]

$18.6 million in Thursday previews for DP2. A record for an R-rated film, and about $5m ahead of the first film. That number also puts it in the same ballpark as the preview numbers for the first Avengers and Jurassic World, both of which topped $200m for the first weekend.

Gonna open nowhere near that. Looks like a $130 million opening...pretty much same as the first. May hit $150 million tops.

 

[Malcolm R]

Gonna open nowhere near that. Looks like a $130 million opening...pretty much same as the first. May hit $150 million tops.

Yeah, I don't think it'll reach that high, either. Those are just the comparisons being bandied about based on the preview numbers. I'm thinking maybe in the 150's, max.

 

[Wayne_j]

Per Deadline Deadpool coming in at $125 million.

 

[Tino]

Per boxoffice mojo

1 N Deadpool 2 Fox $125,000,000 - 4,349 - $28,742 $125,000,000 $110 1
2 1 Avengers: Infinity War BV $28,672,000 -53.8% 4,002 -472 $7,164 $595,032,959 - 4
3 N Book Club Par. $12,500,000 - 2,781 - $4,495 $12,500,000 - 1
4 2 Life of the Party WB (NL) $7,725,000 -56.8% 3,656 - $2,113 $31,036,507 - 2
5 3 Breaking In (2018) Uni. $6,470,000 -63.3% 2,537 - $2,550 $28,750,710 $6 2
6 N Show Dogs Global Road $6,034,770 - 3,212 - $1,879 $6,034,770 - 1
7 4 Overboard (2018) PNT $4,725,000 -52.1% 1,820 -186 $2,596 $36,973,570 - 3
8 5 A Quiet Place Par. $4,040,000 -37.4% 2,327 -817 $1,736 $176,176,313 $17 7
9 7 Rampage (2018) WB (NL) $1,500,000 -56.7% 1,466 -1,082 $1,023 $92,423,329 $120 6
10 10 RBG Magn. $1,280,000 +7.7% 375 +196 $3,413 $3,880,766 - 3

 

[Tino]

Www.boxofficeguru.com analysis

Only the first Deadpool had a bigger opening weekend among all R-rated movies with a Friday-to-Sunday score of $132.4M, though that was helped by the double holidays of Presidents Day and Valentine's Day when it launched in February 2016. Those holidays helped that film's Sunday generate sales that were basically even with Saturday instead of witnessing the usual decline.

The Deadpool 2 audience was 61% male, 62% over 25, and split evenly between whites and non-whites. A big 24% of the gross came from premium-priced screens such as IMAX. Reviews for the Ryan Reynolds tentpole were generally positive and ticket buyers had a great time as evidenced by the A grade from CinemaScore. The mercenary's daily breakdown came out as $53.3M for Friday, which was a new record for R-rated films, $40.5M for Saturday falling 24%, and $31.2M for Sunday dropping another 23%. As expected, sales were more front-loaded this time since it is a sequel with more of a built-in audience.

Deadpool 2 shot up another $176M this weekend from overseas markets putting the global opening weekend at a healthy $301M and that is with no China release. It was the biggest international debut ever for Fox edging out X-Men: Days of Future Past as well as the R-rated Logan, and both of those included grosses from a China launch. Budgeted at a reasonable $110M, Deadpool 2 will try to surpass the $784M global gross of its predecessor.

Following its three week reign, the super hero juggernaut Avengers: Infinity War took the bridesmaid position this time with an estimated $28.7M. That represented a 54% decline which was not too bad considering the arrival of another massive comic book movie this weekend. Disney's domestic total to date is $595M which puts Thanos and pals at number eight on the all-time list behind another recent Disney-owned smash sequel - Star Wars: The Last Jedi ($620.2M). A domestic final in the $660-670M range might result.

International markets contributed another $84.4M boosting the cume to a remarkable $1.22 billion. China dropped sharply by 73% in its second weekend but has still amassed a giant $302.5M over ten days. All other overseas markets together declined by 62% this weekend. The next top market cumes are $89M in Korea, $87.8M from the U.K., $60.8M in Brazil, $57.7M from Mexico, $43.3M in Australia and $42.8M from India. The global haul rocketed up to $1.81 billion making it number four all-time on the worldwide list behind Avatar, Titanic, and Star Wars: The Force Awakens which all crossed $2 billion.