2018 At The Boxoffice (1 Viewer)

[Tino]

AIW posted a record $25 million gross for an April Monday but........

Deadline

For Mondays overall, Infinity War currently ranks ninth, well below the Mondays of Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No. 2, $40.1M, Dec. 21, 2015) and Rogue One (No. 3 $32M, Dec. 26, 2016). This is largely because those films benefited greatly from schools being off during the holidays. Yesterday there weren’t any K-12 schools off, and only 7% colleges were on break according to ComScore. The fact that there weren’t any schools off on Friday, didn’t impact Infinity War‘s weekend business, however, it does slow down Monday’s turnstiles a tad. Still, you can’t knock a $25M Monday. That’s the envy of any rival studio.

Running domestic total to date for Infinity War is $282.9M. Force Awakens holds the record for crossing $300M in five days, and odds are that Infinity War will tie that feat today.

 

[Colin Jacobson]

Running domestic total to date for Infinity War is $282.9M. Force Awakens holds the record for crossing $300M in five days, and odds are that Infinity War will tie that feat today.

"AIW" got my $5 today!

 

[Adam Lenhardt]

Avengers: Infinity War Crosses $900 Billion at Global Box Office in Nine Days

That's just one day slower than The Force Awakens, the top-grossing domestic performer (and third-highest global performer) of all time.

 

[Tino]

I predict AIW will top out at about $800 million domestic.

 

[Robert Crawford]

Avengers: Infinity War Crosses $900 Billion at Global Box Office in Nine Days

That's just one day slower than The Force Awakens, the top-grossing domestic performer (and third-highest global performer) of all time.

It broke the record as it made $1B in 10 days which beats previous record of The Force Awakens when it made $1B mark in 11 days.

http://money.cnn.com/2018/05/05/media/avengers-infinity-war-billion-box-office/index.html

 

[Sean Bryan]

I predict AIW will top out at about $800 million domestic.

That would be mighty impressive, but I don’t think it is likely. I think $700 million is the goal to wonder if it will reach.

It would need like a 2.72x domestic multiplier to get to 700M.

That would be about halfway between the first film, which was slightly better than 3x, and Ultron, which was about 2.4x.

We’ll have to see what the drops look like the next couple of weekends.

 

[Jake Lipson]

I predict AIW will top out at about $800 million domestic.

Do you still think Black Panther can get to $700 million? I think it would...if the digital release weren't next Tuesday and the Blu-ray the week after that. But since they are, it's going to cut it very close. After this weekend, it should be around $695m give or take. We'll see how badly the disc release causes its theatrical presence to bleed. If only they had scheduled the home release for, say, even a month later than they did, it would for sure get there. Now, I don't know.

 

[Tino]

Do you still think Black Panther can get to $700 million? I think it would...if the digital release weren't next Tuesday and the Blu-ray the week after that. But since they are, it's going to cut it very close. After this weekend, it should be around $695m give or take. We'll see how badly the disc release causes its theatrical presence to bleed. If only they had scheduled the home release for, say, even a month later than they did, it would for sure get there. Now, I don't know.

Absolutely will reach $700 million. No doubt about that.

 

[Tino]

That would be mighty impressive, but I don’t think it is likely. I think $700 million is the goal to wonder if it will reach.

It would need like a 2.72x domestic multiplier to get to 700M.

That would be about halfway between the first film, which was slightly better than 3x, and Ultron, which was about 2.4x.

We’ll have to see what the drops look like the next couple of weekends.

Don’t doubt my predictions Sean. Some scoffed at my $700 million prediction for Black Panther.

 

[Adam Lenhardt]

Do you still think Black Panther can get to $700 million? I think it would...if the digital release weren't next Tuesday and the Blu-ray the week after that. But since they are, it's going to cut it very close. After this weekend, it should be around $695m give or take. We'll see how badly the disc release causes its theatrical presence to bleed. If only they had scheduled the home release for, say, even a month later than they did, it would for sure get there. Now, I don't know.

I think it'll squeak over that. It's still in 1,600 theaters this weekend, and probably won't lose the bulk of them until next Friday. Assuming it makes around half a million a day Monday through Thursday, we're only talking $250k to go. I anticipate a steep drop off next weekend, but not quite that steep.

I wouldn't be surprised if the multiplexes keep it around for a couple screenings a day even next weekend, to continue building off Infinity War mania.

 

[Malcolm R]

It shouldn't be a problem. Jumanji 2 made about $4 million at theaters in the four weeks after it was released to video, and it had been in theaters nearly 2 months longer than BP.

I don't think the studios care about theatrical grosses after a certain number of weeks because the split on ticket money with the theater owners is in favor of the theaters at that point. So the studio can make more money on the video release than trying to sell more tickets at the box office.

The ones who care most about the quick home video releases are the theater owners. Just at the point where they're finally making some money at the box office from these films, it's available for home viewing.

 

[Jake Lipson]

It shouldn't be a problem. Jumanji 2 made about $4 million at theaters in the four weeks after it was released to video, and it had been in theaters nearly 2 months longer than BP.

Good point.

I don't think the studios care about theatrical grosses after a certain number of weeks because the split on ticket money with the theater owners is in favor of the theaters at that point. So the studio can make more money on the video release than trying to sell more tickets at the box office.

You're correct -- but I'm sure Disney would like to have it hit $700 million because that's a nice round number to brag about, even if the latter end of that money went to the theater owners. Assuming it gets there, Black Panther will be only the third film ever to hit that mark domestically. That's a stat they'll like to push.

Let's also note that, of the other two, Disney made one (The Force Awakens) and is in the process of buying the other (Avatar.)

The ones who care most about the quick home video releases are the theater owners. Just at the point where they're finally making some money at the box office from these films, it's available for home viewing.

I would assume that they're already making good money with Black Panther, as it is currently in its 11th weekend and was #5 last weekend. I think you'd be hard-pressed to find a theater owner who isn't delighted with the results they've had from it. But, again, you're right, and your point is well taken.

 

[Sean Bryan]

Do you still think Black Panther can get to $700 million? I think it would...if the digital release weren't next Tuesday and the Blu-ray the week after that.

Yeah, it’ll be close. But I’m pretty sure it’ll hit the $700M mark now. Really impressive. I initially thought it would finish closer to $650M than $700.

 

[Sean Bryan]

Don’t doubt my predictions Sean. Some scoffed at my $700 million prediction for Black Panther.

Would love to see that. It is certainly possible. Would take about a 3.1 multiplier, so it’s legs would need to be about the same as, or just slightly better than, “The Avengers”.

I think the movie is brilliant, but due the nature of the ending I wouldn’t be surprised if the legs weren’t quite as strong as they were for the first one which was much more upbeat.

I’m going again tomorrow, and then a third time next weekend. Will probably get in at least one more viewing after that, so I’m doing my part.

 

[Josh Steinberg]

I think the movie is brilliant, but due the nature of the ending I wouldn’t be surprised if the legs weren’t quite as strong as they were for the first one which wa much more upbeat.

And there's also much stronger competition these days, and the theatrical window in general is much smaller than it was in 2012. Infinity War starts losing premium screens with the release of Deadpool, and completely loses any that it manages to hold when Solo opens the weekend after that. There will also be pressure on theaters to start cutting standard screens once the film has played for four weeks, which is usually the longest that Disney is able to contractually mandate that films play. With the film's long running time and fewer screens available, there will be less showtimes per day, which decreases the chances an audience has to see it. Now, if films like Deadpool and Solo flop at the box office, there's a chance that Avengers could hold on longer than expected, but with the onslaught of summer releases, it's hard for me to see a path for this film to stick around as long as Black Panther did. The first Avengers film in 2012 also got a little bit lucky because the releases in the following weeks that other studios put out flopped (Tim Burton's $150 million production of Dark Shadows, to name just one), which allowed it to play longer and thus gave audiences more chances to see Avengers with less competition. And the first film had a novelty factor that this one just can't have - it's no longer the first time we're seeing a superhero team-up movie, and that concept is no longer a novelty but a regularly scheduled routine at this point.

It's impressive how much money Infinity War has made in a short time, but I think it's a very front-loaded gross.

 

[TravisR]

And there's also much stronger competition these days, and the theatrical window in general is much smaller than it was in 2012. Infinity War starts losing premium screens with the release of Deadpool, and completely loses any that it manages to hold when Solo opens the weekend after that.

And it looks Solo's pre-sale tickets are doing very well too as the first day was the second highest pre-sale tickets of the year. Solo was behind Avengers but ahead of Black Panther's first day ticket sales. It's a Star Wars movie so it's got a devoted fanbase and the May The 4th hoopla helped sales but I'm surprised it was ahead of Black Panther.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/h...is-no-2-preseller-year-first-24-hours-1108854

 

[Jake Lipson]

It's impressive how much money Infinity War has made in a short time, but I think it's a very front-loaded gross.

I think it will hold longer than you think it will -- it should be easy to find it at least through the end of June in smaller 2D auditoriums, and there are a lot of people who don't care about premium formats who will be happy just to see it in any theater. Last year, I saw Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 on opening weekend, and then again in June on Father's Day, which was after Wonder Woman had opened and had become the bigger box office story. I was surprised to find Guardians full in June, with more people there than had been when I went on opening weekend. (Of course, on opening weekend it was on multiple screens and had been cut down to just the one by June, but still.) So, these do tend to hang around for a while.

I also think it has recaptured some of the event status from the first Avengers that Ultron didn't have, because of the other characters they've brought in this time who haven't crisscrossed with the Avengers before, like the Guardians and Doctor Strange. But the ending is also possibly divisive, as has been noted, and may impact people's desire to return, or not, as the case may be.

That being said, you're also right on with many of your points. Black Panther's outsize success seems partially due to the lack of other big films in February and March. No pun intended, but A Quiet Place in early April was the next film after Black Panther that had a noisy debut and overperormed expectations. (Ready Player One did well too in its opening the week before but doesn't seem to be a true zeitgeist movie.) People were going to see Black Panther again because it was good, but also because nothing else out at the time was as exciting as revisiting it.

As you noted, the summer calendar is just more crowded. And, the Pixar movie for this summer is a superhero one, which means The Incredibles provides more direct competition than if it were Cars (last year) or Brave (2012 opposite The Avengers.)

I also think it matters when the Blu-ray comes out. If it's late September like it was in 2012 when The Avengers came out, that will mean more ticket sales. If it's mid-August like Guardians last year, it's going to end its run sooner.

Regardless of where it ends up, I fully expect Black Panther and Infinity War to remain the #1 and #2 films of the year, in whichever order. So Disney and Marvel will likely be delighted either way.

I think a more interesting question would be the range Disney expects Ant-Man and the Wasp to end up in. The original was considered a hit at $180 million total, so it's obviously going to be smaller than the other two this year (again, no pun intended.) But the first one seemed to be generally well-liked and has had three years for people to find it on video, so I suspect there might be a bump of some sort.

I'm surprised it was ahead of Black Panther.

I'm not, because when Black Panther's tickets went on sale, I did not believe there was any reason to expect it to be anything more than a typical Marvel success story, like the Guardians films or Ragnarok. Not that those are anything to sneeze at either, but I didn't have any problem just getting into them on opening weekend without buying in advance. It wasn't until later on that it became clear, to me anyway, that Black Panther was going to exceed expectations in such an unprecedented way. I bought my ticket in advance for Black Panther, but not until the night before I was going to see it, because it was only then that I began to understand how gigantic of a draw that film was going to be.

Star Wars, by virtue of being Star Wars, is going to be a giant draw no matter what. So, it really doesn't surprise me much that Solo would be ahead if you consider only the first day of the advance ticket sales.

 

[Colin Jacobson]

I'm not, because when Black Panther's tickets went on sale, I did not believe there was any reason to expect it to be anything more than a typical Marvel success story, like the Guardians films or Ragnarok.

Disagree - there was a lot of attention given to "BP" as the first MCU film to focus on an African-American lead, and that sparked higher than usual interest.

Of course, some thought this would hurt the film, but obviously it didn't. The movie got a big boost from the pre-release enthusiasm of African-American viewers and that gave it better than usual momentum...

 

[TravisR]

I'm not, because when Black Panther's tickets went on sale, I did not believe there was any reason to expect it to be anything more than a typical Marvel success story, like the Guardians films or Ragnarok. Not that those are anything to sneeze at either, but I didn't have any problem just getting into them on opening weekend without buying in advance. It wasn't until later on that it became clear, to me anyway, that Black Panther was going to exceed expectations in such an unprecedented way. I bought my ticket in advance for Black Panther, but not until the night before I was going to see it, because it was only then that I began to understand how gigantic of a draw that film was going to be.

Star Wars, by virtue of being Star Wars, is going to be a giant draw no matter what. So, it really doesn't surprise me much that Solo would be ahead if you consider only the first day of the advance ticket sales.

I could be misremembering but I thought by the time that BP tickets went on sale, the hype was building for it. Not that anyone knew that BP was going to be a massive hit but it's not like it came out of nowhere either. Like you basically said though, Solo being a Star Wars movie is a guarantee of ticket sales from its fans.

 

[Josh Steinberg]

Right, Black Panther was always going to have a big opening, because standalone Marvel superhero films generally open between $90-100 million. I don't think an opening of that size was ever in question. I think the big surprise was that it opened with about twice that, which was unexpected for a non-team-up film. But to Travis's point, at no point in its pre-release tracking was Black Panther expected to be anything other than a hit. It was just a question of how big a hit it would be.