2018 At The Boxoffice (1 Viewer)

[TravisR]

It was just a question of how big a hit it would be.

Answer: Really big.


And I thought Tino had gone off his nut or was drinking moonshine or something with his box office predictions for BP but he called it.

 

[Jake Lipson]

I didn't mean to imply that I didn't believe it would be a hit, because of course I did. I just expected it to be a more normal-sized one, with an opening around Marvel's standard range. Thus, I didn't do the advance ticket thing because if a movie is opening in the standard range for Marvel, I've never had a problem giving it walkup business on the first weekend. At no point prior to its actual release did I think that that would be different for Black Panther. Therefore, when tickets went on sale several weeks in advance of the opening, it did not occur to me to buy one yet. Star Wars, by its very nature, guarantees a huge advance ticket sale in the way that few other films do. Which is why it doesn't surprise me that Solo's first day ticket sales exceeded the first day of Black Panther, before it was known quite how much of a monster Black Panther would be.

 

[Josh Steinberg]

I am actually surprised at how well Solo tickets appear to be selling for premium locations in NYC on opening night and weekend given the almost complete lack of excitement concerning this title's release. The marketing campaign has been underwhelming, and the trailer that played before the sold-out Infinity Wars IMAX opening night showing generated absolutely no response whatsoever from my crowd of about 600 - it was the only trailer out of about twenty minutes of trailers to not get any response, positive or negative. So I figured that while it would ultimately open well, that there wouldn't be an advance demand for premium tickets, and was surprised that they're selling as fast as they are.

 

[Adam Lenhardt]

Someone actually yelled out "So unnecessary!" when the Solo trailer played before Infinity War when I saw it in IMAX.

I think it's doing a lot of upfront business because it's a new Star Wars film. Either the negative buzz will be validated when the movie comes out and it will drop off quickly after the opening weekend, or audiences will be pleasantly surprised and the word of mouth will turn around.

On one hand, you've got the most acclaimed writer for the Han Solo character credited as a screenwriter on this. Ron Howard isn't my favorite director, but he's a competent one. On the other hand, everything I've seen of Alden Ehrenreich's performance has been completely lackluster.

 

[Jake Lipson]

The marketing campaign has been underwhelming, and the trailer that played before the sold-out Infinity Wars IMAX opening night showing generated absolutely no response whatsoever from my crowd of about 600 - it was the only trailer out of about twenty minutes of trailers to not get any response, positive or negative.

Incidentally, I could have written that exact thing about my Infinity War opening night screening as well, so yours was not an isolated case.

Someone actually yelled out "So unnecessary!" when the Solo trailer played before Infinity War when I saw it in IMAX.

It would be interesting to know if that person ultimately ends up seeing it anyway. If they're a Star Wars fan, I suspect they might.

So I figured that while it would ultimately open well, that there wouldn't be an advance demand for premium tickets, and was surprised that they're selling as fast as they are.

I think it's doing a lot of upfront business because it's a new Star Wars film.

This. I think that in the case of Star Wars, the level of excitement is almost irrelevant in guaranteeing a huge opening. The series is so beloved and iconic that even a title where there doesn't seem to be much excitement is still going to have fans in a hurry to get in, because the idea of not going to it is just bizarre. Plus, the reputation of the George Lucas prequels is so bad that even if Solo isn't great, there's almost no way it could be as widely reviled as, say, Jar Jar Binks. My guess is that even if people aren't super excited, it's still Star Wars, so they'll go to the opening show because they always do. It's a habit thing now.

Personally, I don't feel I need an advance ticket because the fact that it is a spinoff movie and not Episode IX makes a difference in terms of my being okay seeing it merely at some point on the opening weekend, as opposed to feeling like I have to go on the Thursday evening.

Similar to how I didn't think I needed a Black Panther ticket ahead of time until the night before, as things stand now I expect Solo to do well, but my theater will probably have it starting at least once every half hour on opening weekend, so I'm not worried about being able to get in via just going to the box office and buying a ticket before the show starts. If the one I originally plan on is sold out, which I doubt, I'll wait at most half an hour before the next one. Since my local preferred theater doesn't do reserved seating, a ticket is a ticket, so I'm good.

 

[Malcolm R]

I think it's doing a lot of upfront business because it's a new Star Wars film. Either the negative buzz will be validated when the movie comes out and it will drop off quickly after the opening weekend, or audiences will be pleasantly surprised and the word of mouth will turn around.

I agree that the test will be the second and subsequent weeks. In the first week, you'll get all the die hard SW fans who would turn out for Star Wars: Chewbacca Reads Haiku. First week and advance sales are always going to be big for SW. It's the legs in subsequent weeks that indicate if the film is reaching beyond the guaranteed core audience.

I also think this continuously moving best ever/new record for advance sales is more reflective of the number of theaters that keep adding the ability to purchase tickets online or for reserved seating moreso than any indicator of the increasing popularity of the films being released. Theaters around here have only recently added advance/online sales. None yet offer reserved seating.

 

[Josh Steinberg]

Yeah, I don’t think the records for presales mean much. Especially when you consider that they’re measuring that by dollars spent and not number of tickets sold - which prices going up all the time, along with ordinary inflation, it’s very rarely an apples to apples comparison.

 

[Jake Lipson]

I agree that the test will be the second and subsequent weeks.

Because Deadpool vacated June 1, Solo will almost certainly top its second weekend. Its competition is a Paramount comedy called Action Point and Adrift, a Shailene Woodley drama from STX. But you're right that the drop will be telling.

 

[TravisR]

Someone actually yelled out "So unnecessary!" when the Solo trailer played before Infinity War when I saw it in IMAX.

And that same guy already bought his ticket.

 

[Tino]

AIW dropped 56%. A bit more than expected.

Top 10

Avengers: Infinity War BV $112,474,000 -56.4% 4,474 - $25,139 $450,806,540 - 2
2 N Overboard (2018) PNT $14,750,000 - 1,623 - $9,088 $14,750,000 - 1
3 2 A Quiet Place Par. $7,600,000 -30.9% 3,413 -152 $2,227 $159,894,386 $17 5
4 3 I Feel Pretty STX $4,900,000 -40.1% 3,232 -208 $1,516 $37,798,283 $32 3
5 4 Rampage (2018) WB (NL) $4,620,000 -35.9% 3,151 -357 $1,466 $84,793,100 $120 4
6 N Tully (2018) Focus $3,186,000 - 1,353 - $2,355 $3,186,000 - 1
7 5 Black Panther BV $3,146,000 -33.6% 1,641 -9 $1,917 $693,126,615 - 12
8 7 Truth or Dare Uni. $1,885,000 -42.3% 1,904 -516 $990 $38,236,360 $3.5 4
9 6 Super Troopers 2 Fox $1,815,000 -51.3% 2,118 -7 $857 $25,445,701 $13.5 3
10 N Bad Samaritan Electric $1,758,000 - 2,007 - $876 $1,758,000 - 1

 

[Jake Lipson]

AIW dropped 56%. A bit more than expected.

Considering the insane amount of upfront demand absorbed last weekend, that still seems reasonable to me. Also, I wonder what its drop would be if you factored out the Thursday previews, which were folded into last Friday. This weekend did not have that advantage.

 

[Tino]

Doesn’t matter. It was expected to do $120 million. All those factors were considered in the estimates.

Still a great 2nd weekend nonetheless.

 

[Jake Lipson]

Doesn’t matter. It was expected to do $120 million. All those factors were considered in the estimates.

Well, yeah, I'm not disputing that. but the percentage drop accounts for the previews being folded in. It would just be an interesting statistic to know the percentage drop for the true Friday to Sunday, which would just be another piece of information. That's all.

 

[Tino]

Well, yeah, I'm not disputing that. but the percentage drop accounts for the previews being folded in. It would just be an interesting statistic to know the percentage drop for the true Friday to Sunday, which would just be another piece of information. That's all.

Well that’s easy to figure out. Deducting the $39 million in Thursday previews = $219 million opening. Compared to this weekends $112 million estimate that approx a 51% drop.

 

[Malcolm R]

Well that’s easy to figure out. Deducting the $39 million in Thursday previews = $219 million opening. Compared to this weekends $112 million estimate that approx a 51% drop.

That would be a 49% drop. $112 mil is 51% of $219 mil.

 

[Tino]

Well there ya go. Still a moot point as Thursday’s grosses are counted into the first days gross. Which I don’t agree with by the way.

 

[Jake Lipson]

I think the idea behind adding Thursday to Friday is that anyone who would want to see it on Thursday night would go on Friday if the Thursday screenings weren't there. But I agree with you it's a bit of a weird way of accounting.

 

[Colin Jacobson]

AIW dropped 56%. A bit more than expected.

For comparison, "Force Awakens" dropped 39.8% in its 2nd weekend.

Not a totally "fair" comparison since "TFA" benefited from the Christmas time frame in its 2nd weekend, but there it is anyway!

 

[Sean Bryan]

A 2nd weekend percent drop in the mid 50’s is very good for a movie with such a huge opening weekend (the hugest ever) that was also significantly hyped amongst the fan base to pull a high percentage of viewers in on the first weekend.

This would still make it the 2nd best 2nd weekend of all time, just ahead of Black Panther's $111.7M. After GotG2 it would be the best 2nd non-holiday weekend hold out of all MCU SEQUELS (Ragnarok had holiday weekend boost in its 2nd weekend). Should have a better multiplier than Civil War and Age of Ultron, but I really don’t see it having the 3.11X multiplier that it would need to reach the $800M discussed upthread. So I stand by my rough prediction that $700M is the target to reach or not by the end. Though $700M would still be kind of tough to hit.

It is tracking really strongly in China. Looking like it may have a huge opening there next weekend. World wide, Infinty War should will beat the first Avengers by the end of next weekend and it’s final total could actually come in around the $2 Billion Mark if China is as big as some are projecting. It could come quite close to The Force Awakens world wide depending on how strong it plays in China.

 

[Sean Bryan]

The second weekend actual total for Infinity War came in a few million higher than the estimate at $114.8M for a 55.5% drop.