Mark Booth
Senior HTF Member
- Joined
- Aug 25, 1999
- Messages
- 3,580
Just read this article in the Washington Post about the tiny island of Seychelles in the Indian Ocean. They have a population of about 100,000 and 60% of that population is fully vaccinated already. Yet, they are seeing a spike in COVID infections.
Of the 1,068 current active cases, 65% are either unvaccinated or have only received 1 dose. That means 35% of the active cases are among fully vaccinated persons!!
Seychelles uses two vaccines (from China and India) that are known to be less effective at preventing infection (but still reasonably effective at preventing serious illness). However, even though the statistics are better for Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, I think the situation clearly underscores the need to continue to be vigilant and careful even after you've been fully vaccinated.
60% fully vaccinated is NOT yet "herd immunity". We need to get to 75-80% or greater to achieve that. In the U.S., unfortunately, I do not believe that will happen from vaccine alone. Too many people are unwilling to get the vaccine.
We may reach herd immunity in the U.S. once more of the unvaccinated have been infected. But how many will die because of vaccine hesitancy and how long will it take?
My wife and I don't want to be part of the problem. While it is true we are enjoying a limited and controlled amount of return to "normalcy", we do not feel it is yet safe to meet in large groups in indoor spaces, even if everyone in the group is fully vaccinated. At least, not without masks (double masks).
My magic club is discussing the idea of meeting in person again starting in July. The meeting would be held at someone's home. The decision depends on what happens with regard to state & county guidelines in the next several weeks.
Since vaccination rates are slowing, WELL before we've gotten remotely close to herd immunity, I fear we are going to be in a spike situation (just like Seychelles) by July. Fingers crossed that I am wrong.
Mark
Of the 1,068 current active cases, 65% are either unvaccinated or have only received 1 dose. That means 35% of the active cases are among fully vaccinated persons!!
Seychelles uses two vaccines (from China and India) that are known to be less effective at preventing infection (but still reasonably effective at preventing serious illness). However, even though the statistics are better for Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, I think the situation clearly underscores the need to continue to be vigilant and careful even after you've been fully vaccinated.
60% fully vaccinated is NOT yet "herd immunity". We need to get to 75-80% or greater to achieve that. In the U.S., unfortunately, I do not believe that will happen from vaccine alone. Too many people are unwilling to get the vaccine.
We may reach herd immunity in the U.S. once more of the unvaccinated have been infected. But how many will die because of vaccine hesitancy and how long will it take?
My wife and I don't want to be part of the problem. While it is true we are enjoying a limited and controlled amount of return to "normalcy", we do not feel it is yet safe to meet in large groups in indoor spaces, even if everyone in the group is fully vaccinated. At least, not without masks (double masks).
My magic club is discussing the idea of meeting in person again starting in July. The meeting would be held at someone's home. The decision depends on what happens with regard to state & county guidelines in the next several weeks.
Since vaccination rates are slowing, WELL before we've gotten remotely close to herd immunity, I fear we are going to be in a spike situation (just like Seychelles) by July. Fingers crossed that I am wrong.
Mark
