Is it time to talk about coronavirus? (1 Viewer)

[DaveF]

I had a discussion with a fellow HTF member on the phone yesterday and he thought probably the best thing to do is eventually slowly open everything back up with all the social distancing rules in effect. Watch the numbers. If they go up, we pull back on allowing people to congregate. I think this may be the best idea for now.

Isn’t this is self contradictory? How do we “slowly open everything back up with all the social distancing rules in effect”?

Offices, schools, grocery stores, churches, buses, metro, airplanes, hotels, and so on...Isn’t it the social quarantine that enables the social distancing?

 

[Ronald Epstein]

Isn’t this is self contradictory? How do we “slowly open everything back up with all the social distancing rules in effect”?

Offices, schools, grocery stores, churches, buses, metro, airplanes, hotels, and so on...Isn’t it the social quarantine that enables the social distancing?

I think you misunderstand.

A vaccine could be 12-18 months away.

We can't keep the world shut down for that amount of time.

We need to find a way for people to go back to some sort of life, keeping some restrictions in place.

Congregating in churches? No. Airplane traveling? Severely limited. Hotels? Limited. Stop cruising! Workplaces will have to adjust. Mass transit will have to enforce distancing rules. Restaurants will have to limit capacity.

We won't go back to the kind of life we knew back in January. However, there is a chance we can open the world back up and co-exist with each other with enforced social distancing and the wearing of protective masks.

 

[HawksFord]

Sure but the problem there is this virus can take 1-2 weeks to appear in a person.

So the numbers might be down at the start and then we think it’s fine but in 3-4 weeks the numbers jump way up again and then we’re right back to the worst of it again.

It's going to be interesting to see what the numbers look like a week or two after Easter. Just on my block, I saw at least one gathering of extended family/friends. When my wife and I went out for a walk, we saw a number of cars on the road. I expect a bump in the numbers locally, but I have no idea how big that bump might be.

 

[Robert Crawford]

It's funny how some communities are better at social distancing than others. It shows a complete lack of respect towards this deadly virus and sooner or later some of those people are going to pay for that disrespect, but at the same time, others will pay too because of their lack of cooperation in combating this pandemic.

 

[Ronald Epstein]

It's funny how some communities are better at social distancing than others. It shows a complete lack of respect towards this deadly virus and sooner or later some of those people are going to pay for that disrespect, but at the same time others will pay too because of their lack of cooperation in combating this pandemic.

Well said!

People are horrible. This is why we can't trust social distancing to work.

All you need to prove this is to see all the disposed of gloves strewn around the Supermarket parking lots.

There will always be the few that show a total lack of respect for others that ruin the cause at hand.

 

[TravisR]

All you need to prove this is to see all the disposed of gloves strewn around the Supermarket parking lots.

Yeah and I fully understand that people don't want to take potentially contaminated gloves home with them or even put them in their car but then walk back 50 feet and throw them in the store's outside trash cans, ya ignorant fucking savages!

 

[Walter Kittel]

California governor Gavin Newsom on re-opening the state....

Six indicators when to relax social-distancing guidelines:

1. “The ability to monitor and protect our communities through testing, contact tracing, isolating, and supporting those who are positive or exposed.”
2. “The ability to prevent infection in people who are at risk for more severe COVID-19.”
3. “The ability of the hospital and health systems to handle surges.”
4. “The ability to develop therapeutics to meet the demand.”
5. “The ability for businesses, schools, and child care facilities to support physical distancing.”
6. “The ability to determine when to reinstitute certain measures, such as the stay-at-home orders, if necessary.”

Additionally Newsom indicated:

“As we contemplate reopening parts of our state, we must be guided by science and data, and we must understand that things will look different than before. There is no light switch here. Think of it as a dimmer. It will toggle between less restrictive and more restrictive.”


I think the dimmer analogy is apt, and I am heartened by his focus on maintaining the health and security of Californians.

- Walter.

 

[John Dirk]

Other than large venues such as theaters and sports arenas, mostly everything is already open [albeit at reduced functionality] today, at least where I live. I haven't paid a lot of attention to the "news" media [because I believe it quickly becomes counterproductive to do so] however I also believe it is clear the countries showing the best overall control of this pandemic are the ones structured to most easily implement autocratic control over their populations. Americans aren't used to that level of control and will largely ignore directives unless they come with the force of law.

There are real trade offs that must be considered here. What would it take in this country to truly enforce social distancing? The Posse Comitatus Act already prohibits the use of the Military in such situations and I doubt local Police forces are up to the task. Traffic in the Atlanta Metro is already at about 70% of normal levels and gradually increasing despite the statewide Shelter In Place order. Stores are also increasingly crowded and most people pay little attention to the employees and signage asking them to practice social distancing. Changing this dynamic would come at fundamental and significant costs in the U.S.

On the other hand it is unrealistic to believe we can wait this out indefinitely at the expense of our economy. The businesses that are not able to operate are some of the largest revenue generators and job creators we have and the ripple effect of this could be catastrophic in it's own right. Government bailouts won't help everyone as has been discussed in this very thread and they are also not without consequence. Our children's children will be saddled with yet more debt the longer this continues since the Government can only give away what it somehow takes from others.

Sadly there is no clear direction in this situation as all alternatives come with grave potential consequences. I'm not advocating a particular position at this point, only trying to illustrate the complexity. In my case, I practice social distancing and pray nightly for the wisdom and guidance of our world leaders and our scientific and medical professionals.

I believe that is the best any individual can do.

 

[Robert Crawford]

Other than large venues such as theaters and sports arenas, mostly everything is already open [albeit at reduced functionality] today, at least where I live. I haven't paid a lot of attention to the "news" media [because I believe it quickly becomes counterproductive to do so] however I also believe it is clear the countries showing the best overall control of this pandemic are the ones structured to most easily implement autocratic control over their populations. Americans aren't used to that level of control and will largely ignore directives unless they come with the force of law.

There are real trade offs that must be considered here. What would it take in this country to truly enforce social distancing? The Posse Comitatus Act already prohibits the use of the Military in such situations and I doubt local Police forces are up to the task. Traffic in the Atlanta Metro is already at about 70% of normal levels and gradually increasing despite the statewide Shelter In Place order. Stores are also increasingly crowded and most people pay little attention to the employees and signage asking them to practice social distancing. Changing this dynamic would come at fundamental and significant costs in the U.S.

On the other hand it is unrealistic to believe we can wait this out indefinitely at the expense of our economy. The businesses that are not able to operate are some of the largest revenue generators and job creators we have and the ripple effect of this could be catastrophic in it's own right. Government bailouts won't help everyone as has been discussed in this very thread and they are also not without consequence. Our children's children will be saddled with yet more debt the longer this continues since the Government can only give away what it somehow takes from others.

Sadly there is no clear direction in this situation as all alternatives come with grave potential consequences. I'm not advocating a particular position at this point, only trying to illustrate the complexity. In my case, I practice social distancing and pray nightly for the wisdom and guidance of our world leaders and our scientific and medical professionals.

I believe that is the best any individual can do.

TBH, I wouldn't want to live in Georgia during this type of crisis for obvious reasons. Not enough procedural control is happening there and what's funny is that CDC is located there. I hope the people of Georgia don't pay the price for such lapses.

 

[Carlo_M]

With regards to whether people will wait out the pandemic vs. reopening (and for the record I agree, 12-18 months would be utterly devastating to the world economies), the virus will determine what people will endure.

If we reopen, and the rates of infection don't rise dramatically and the death toll stays low, then yes, people will absolutely go back to "something approaching normalcy".

But if the original science is to be believed, more contagious and easily spread than the normal flu (the R0 was double normal influenza), and a 1-3% mortality rate (vs. 0.1 - 0.3% for normal flu), if the coronavirus starts rising to levels that match the science...

Let's just consider the 2018-19 flu season, which according to the CDC had about 35M infections. A 1% mortality rate is 350,000 and a 3% rate would me a smidge over a million. And remember, 1) 2018-19 wasn't a particularly horrible flu season, and 2) the current research that this coronavirus is easier to spread than the flu. Given that, an optimistic prediction of a similar covid outbreak would be 350K dead. A less optimistic prediction, let's say double the infection spread of the 2018 flu season, so 70M, 1% of that is 700K deaths, 3% of that is 2.1M.

And remember, as the number of those needing hospitalization and ventilators increases, it overloads the healthcare system. 1-3% mortality is based on a country's ability to adequately care for its sick, while also isolating them from others. Once the healthcare system can't accommodate all the infected, expect mortality rates to double...or more.

Conversations about the economy are heating up again because the current deaths are in the low tens of thousands and social distancing has served to flatten the curve in most of the hot spots. And outside of the worst areas we've been able to hospitalize the worst cases. But if we re-open too early, and a significant (not all, but you know there will be some) Americans try to "go back to normal", we risk reigniting the flame.

The unfortunate thing is that we have someone who can model the way forward: China is way ahead of the rest of the world in terms of the infection curve. Their strict lockdown has apparently worked, and they're reopening currently. However, and I'm not a pessimist or a conspiracy theorist, but I am a realist, and there is significant justification to doubt information coming from their government. If we could have the real, honest numbers, China's experiment to reopen after over 2 months of strict lockdown would show the world whether doing so is safe or not.

 

[Wayne_j]

Saliva testing now being performed in New Jersey.

 

[Robert Crawford]

With regards to whether people will wait out the pandemic vs. reopening (and for the record I agree, 12-18 months would be utterly devastating to the world economies), the virus will determine what people will endure.

If we reopen, and the rates of infection don't rise dramatically and the death toll stays low, then yes, people will absolutely go back to "something approaching normalcy".

But if the original science is to be believed, more contagious and easily spread than the normal flu (the R0 was double normal influenza), and a 1-3% mortality rate (vs. 0.1 - 0.3% for normal flu), if the coronavirus starts rising to levels that match the science...

Let's just consider the 2018-19 flu season, which according to the CDC had about 35M infections. A 1% mortality rate is 350,000 and a 3% rate would me a smidge over a million. And remember, 1) 2018-19 wasn't a particularly horrible flu season, and 2) the current research that this coronavirus is easier to spread than the flu. Given that, an optimistic prediction of a similar covid outbreak would be 350K dead. A less optimistic prediction, let's say double the infection spread of the 2018 flu season, so 70M, 1% of that is 700K deaths, 3% of that is 2.1M.

And remember, as the number of those needing hospitalization and ventilators increases, it overloads the healthcare system. 1-3% mortality is based on a country's ability to adequately care for its sick, while also isolating them from others. Once the healthcare system can't accommodate all the infected, expect mortality rates to double...or more.

Conversations about the economy are heating up again because the current deaths are in the low tens of thousands and social distancing has served to flatten the curve in most of the hot spots. And outside of the worst areas we've been able to hospitalize the worst cases. But if we re-open too early, and a significant (not all, but you know there will be some) Americans try to "go back to normal", we risk reigniting the flame.

The unfortunate thing is that we have someone who can model the way forward: China is way ahead of the rest of the world in terms of the infection curve. Their strict lockdown has apparently worked, and they're reopening currently. However, and I'm not a pessimist or a conspiracy theorist, but I am a realist, and there is significant justification to doubt information coming from their government. If we could have the real, honest numbers, China's experiment to reopen after over 2 months of strict lockdown would show the world whether doing so is safe or not.

Man, I don't trust nothing coming out China as I think it was much worse there then they've indicated.

 

[jcroy]

Man, I don't trust nothing coming out China as I think it was much worse there then they've indicated.

(Without getting too heavily into politics).

I have noticed many expats from Hong Kong, absolutely do not believe in any information coming out of mainland China for many decades, and are willing to be speak loudly about it.

Some of my extended family and in-laws are from Hong Kong, where they're constantly talking daily about how corrupt and backwards things are there which rarely makes it to the international news wires.

 

[Carlo_M]

I agree Robert, which is why I lamented that, because they're ahead of the world in terms of where they are in the virus lifespan, so if they were honest and forthcoming, they'd show the rest of us what (and more importantly, what not) to do.

 

[John Dirk]

TBH, I wouldn't want to live in Georgia during this type of crisis for obvious reasons. Not enough procedural control is happening there and what's funny is that CDC is located there. I hope the people of Georgia don't pay the price for such lapses.

There's likely some overall truth to what you're saying but I'm not sure Georgia is that much different than most other states as it pertains to this crisis. I was born in Michigan. While, as previously stated, I limit the amount of media I expose myself to, the latest news I heard regarding that state appeared much worse than what we are dealing with here, which concerned me as I still have family and friends there.

I suspect population density is the greatest contributing factor to containment difficulties but, again, in a free society how much real control can we exert?

 

[ManW_TheUncool]

Too much still unknown.

It would be best if we finally have reliable testing widely available for all, not still so restricted like now.

Haven't heard much about how the rollout for serologic testing is going. That seems like the (next) most important, realistically helpful key that needs to happen asap, but seems in some inexplicable holding pattern...

_Man_

 

[Robert Crawford]

Too much still unknown.

It would be best if we finally have reliable testing widely available for all, not still so restricted like now.

Haven't heard much about how the rollout for serologic testing is going. That seems like the (next) most important, realistically helpful key that needs to happen asap, but seems in some inexplicable holding pattern...

_Man_

IMO, outside the availability of PPE and certain medical equipment like ventilators, the lack of testing is the major failure dealing with this crisis.

 

[TravisR]

IMO, outside the availability of PPE and certain medical equipment like ventilators, the lack of testing is the major failure dealing with this crisis.

And somehow those same people still have no interest in correcting that failure.

 

[Walter Kittel]

In terms of failings, I would add:

• Dismantling the government agencies designed to fight a pandemic by cutting funding, abolishing agencies and not filling vacancies with qualified personnel.
• A lack of uniform federal guidelines for 'stay at home'.
• Late mobilization of federal resources to fight the pandemic.
• Not fully utilizing the Defense Production Act to handle things like PPE and Ventilators.
• Not taking control of the supply lines to prevent the bidding wars and competition for resources that have driven up prices to the states.

- Walter.

 

[Steve Christou]