Is it time to talk about coronavirus? (1 Viewer)

[LeoA]

St. Lawrence County now has a positive. So add them to the New York State list.

 

[Adam Lenhardt]

I am very concerned about Adam Lenhardt. Does anyone here communicate with him outside of the forum?

I hope that Adam and his mom are going to be OK!

Thank you all for your concern. My mom and I are both still kicking!

I just spoke with her on the phone, and it sounds like she's starting to recover. I spent most of the night last night coughing, but once I did finally get to sleep I got a good 6-7 hours of sleep. Woke up a little after 11 AM and just laid in bed until about twenty minutes ago.

If this is COVID19, I wouldn't wish it on my worst enemy. After a couple days of a dry cough, starting to bring up green and brown stuff now when I cough. So that's pretty indicative of pneumonia.

Even though I'm working from home, I decided to just call in sick. My plan is to just veg in front of the TV all day.

A lot of talking heads are now suggesting we go back to work and that grandparents should be willing to die to keep things going. I cannot begin to express how insane this is.

Without getting into too political territory, it's worth pointing out that those talking heads are predominantly on one specific news source among the media, and one particular strain of ideological affiliation among the politicians.

It's a bizarre, self-defeating form of magical thinking.

 

[Tony Bensley]

Thank you all for your concern. My mom and I are both still kicking!

I just spoke with her on the phone, and it sounds like she's starting to recover. I spent most of the night last night coughing, but once I did finally get to sleep I got a good 6-7 hours of sleep. Woke up a little after 11 AM and just laid in bed until about twenty minutes ago.

If this is COVID19, I wouldn't wish it on my worst enemy. After a couple days of a dry cough, starting to bring up green and brown stuff now when I cough. So that's pretty indicative of pneumonia.

Even though I'm working from home, I decided to just call in sick. My plan is to just veg in front of the TV all day.


Without getting into too political territory, it's worth pointing out that those talking heads are predominantly on one specific news source among the media, and one particular strain of ideological affiliation among the politicians.

It's a bizarre, self-defeating form of magical thinking.

Indeed, it is. Everyone needs to be united in defeating this pandemic, period.

I'm really glad to hear that your mom is doing better, and I hope that you're on the mend as well, Adam!

CHEERS!

 

[Ronald Epstein]

Adam, I expected the worst. I am so glad you are still here. That goes double for your Mom.

 

[Adam Lenhardt]

Adam, I expected the worst. I am so glad you are still here. That goes double for your Mom.

Thanks Ron!

 

[PMF]

Adam Lenhardt, you are in my thoughts and prayers. May comfort and recovery arrive; for both you and your mom; in the most quickest of time.

 

[SamT]

Chief consultant on pandemic film Contagion tests positive for coronavirus

Ian Lipkin, a researcher who served as a medical consultant on the 2011 film Contagion, announced Tuesday that he tested positive for COVID-19.

While discussing the virus in an interview on Fox Business, he said, "I would just like to say on this show tonight that this has become very personal for me too, because I have COVID as of yesterday. And this is miserable. [If] it can hit me, it can hit anybody," he said.

Lipkin is the director of Columbia University's Center for Infection and Immunity, as well as a professor of epidemiology, neurology, and pathology at the school. He was instrumental in identifying the West Nile virus as the cause of the encephalitis epidemic in New York in 1999 and he also assisted the World Health Organization in China during the SARS outbreak in 2003.

Lipkin was the chief scientific consult for Steven Soderbergh's Contagion, which focused on the spread of a global virus and how researchers and officials try to halt it. Starring Kate Winslet, Marion Cotillard, and Matt Damon, the film was noted for its scientific accuracy. In the movie, Elliott Gould played a research scientist named Ian, who was based on Lipkin.

 

[Mark Booth]

Thank you all for your concern. My mom and I are both still kicking!

I just spoke with her on the phone, and it sounds like she's starting to recover. I spent most of the night last night coughing, but once I did finally get to sleep I got a good 6-7 hours of sleep. Woke up a little after 11 AM and just laid in bed until about twenty minutes ago.

If this is COVID19, I wouldn't wish it on my worst enemy. After a couple days of a dry cough, starting to bring up green and brown stuff now when I cough. So that's pretty indicative of pneumonia.

Even though I'm working from home, I decided to just call in sick. My plan is to just veg in front of the TV all day.


Without getting into too political territory, it's worth pointing out that those talking heads are predominantly on one specific news source among the media, and one particular strain of ideological affiliation among the politicians.

It's a bizarre, self-defeating form of magical thinking.

Adam, you got your antibiotic prescription filled, right? Don't miss any doses!

Thinking good thoughts for a fast recovery for both you and your mom!

Mark

 

[Adam Lenhardt]

Latest numbers from New York State:

(earlier dates available here)

Three additional counties with confirmed cases: Chautauqua, Franklin, St. Lawrence (for real this time!)

285 confirmed fatalities.

Again, I'm am skeptical of the declining percentage increase because the testing capability simply isn't there. While the governor is correct in saying that New York State is doing more testing than any other state, the vast majority of people still can't get tested. Community testing simply isn't available north of Ulster county. When Gov. Cuomo stated during today's press conference that you can walk into any New York State hospital and get tested if you're symptomatic, he simply wasn't stating the truth. All of the area hospitals are only testing admitted patients for whom testing might change treatment strategies.

Unless the antibody test is made widely available, or unless my condition worsens significantly and requires hospitalization, I will likely never know whether my current illness is COVID19 or some other respiratory ailment.

Adam, you got your antibiotic prescription filled, right? Don't miss any doses!

I did and I haven't! Hasn't really helped with the cough or congestion, but has given me pretty severe diarrhea (TMI, I know). However, the sinus congestion I've been battling for weeks is starting to clear up so the antibiotic might be doing some good!

 

[DaveF]

Thank you all for your concern. My mom and I are both still kicking!

I just spoke with her on the phone, and it sounds like she's starting to recover. I spent most of the night last night coughing, but once I did finally get to sleep I got a good 6-7 hours of sleep. Woke up a little after 11 AM and just laid in bed until about twenty minutes ago.

If this is COVID19, I wouldn't wish it on my worst enemy. After a couple days of a dry cough, starting to bring up green and brown stuff now when I cough. So that's pretty indicative of pneumonia.

It seems to still vary a lot. My friend's adult kid, my impression is he had a couple of hard days -- labored breathing -- but is feeling much better in under a week. For them, it seems to have been less horrible than flu, which tends to kick your ass for two weeks. I need to see if this is really the case, but that agrees with early reports on COVID-19.

Not to say you didn't have a miserable experience. You're not alone in being just hammered by this.

I'm glad to hear you're doing better, and sorry it was so miserable!

 

[DaveF]

COVID-19 confirmed cases in US are accelerating slightly. Rate of growth is faster than my extrapolation on Saturday. Social Distancing isn't working. Or we're getting better at testing and finding more cases more quickly.

 

[The Obsolete Man]

COVID-19 confirmed cases in US are accelerating slightly. Rate of growth is faster than my extrapolation on Saturday. Social Distancing isn't working. Or we're getting better at testing and finding more cases more quickly.

Well, let's be honest, how seriously have a good deal of people been taking Social Distancing?

 

[DaveF]

<Moderator Hat on>

I'm going to be more direct and more "inside baseball" than is typical for the moderation staff, in hopes that in this unique situation, I can keep threads that I and others personally appreciate open longer.

We've got three or so COVID-19 / coronavirus threads going. These, in my opinion, are great to have. I find them interesting and useful and provide good information in a largely positive and encouraging manner. I think I'm not alone in this.

But HTF has its no-politics rule, and for good reason. And people are starting to bring more politics more frequently to these threads. I get it. This is a pandemic. It's a national emergency. And politics are deeply entwined in our personal, local, state, and federal responses. Politics is very tangled up in the conversations and the information flow.

But not in HTF. Not if we want to keep these threads open.

And I've got a crazy work schedule right now due to the crisis so I'm not "pulling my weight" right now in keeping on eye on these threads.

So, please, keep the politics out of HTF threads. Find another space in your life to process that side of it.

If you can't, these threads will get shut down. And don't misunderstand this as a moderator schism: I will supporting shutting them down. And don't take this as a way to get a thread locked you don't like: bad actors are at risk of thread or even forum bans for making making life even more difficult during an already very difficult time.

Thanks you for your help in keeping some good threads and helpful conversations going!

 

[DaveF]

Well, let's be honest, how seriously have a good deal of people been taking Social Distancing?

yeah. It depends. My neighborhood: extremely seriously. My sister-in-law who only shut down a big family party, inviting a bunch of elderly relatives, because the state banned gathering over 10 people -- not seriously at all.

 

[Adam Lenhardt]

Not to say you didn't have a miserable experience. You're not alone in being just hammered by this.

Oh definitely not. You've got figure I'm not even in the 20 percent severe enough to be hospitalized. I've had other illnesses (some 72-hour stomach bugs for instance) that were even more miserable.

This cough is more irritating than debilitating -- but it's really, really irritating.

What's new for this one that I'm not used to is that our medical infrastructure isn't really up to the task. Not being able to get tested was really disconcerting, even though -- long-term -- it probably makes no difference to the outcome for me.

COVID-19 confirmed cases in US are accelerating slightly. Rate of growth is faster than my extrapolation on Saturday. Social Distancing isn't working. Or we're getting better at testing and finding more cases more quickly.

I think we are getting better at testing, and I also think that social distancing hasn't been in effect long enough to make a significant difference in a lot of places. Many of the newly reported cases are probably people who got infected before we all started self-isolating and social distancing.

Assuming I do have COVID19, how many additional people would I have infected had I not been home alone for all of those days before I started showing symptoms?

 

[David Weicker]

One thing to remember, when trying to do any extrapolation, is these numbers are not accurate.

They only represent tested cases. The total number of infected people is, in all likelihood, much, much higher.

And as far as calculating ’new’ cases. That is a statistical joke. These tests do not show when the person was infected. For example, the last graph posted for New York showed 25k yesterday and 30k today. The implication is that there were 5k new cases. But because those 5k were newly tested, they might have really belonged in yesterday’s total, or last week’s total. Heck, all 30k could have caught it 12 days ago and there have been no new cases since (unlikely, but the data doesn’t rule it out)

The other number I haven’t seen (although it may be out there somewhere) is how many negative tests there are (and the percentage of negative to positive)

 

[DaveF]

Assuming I do have COVID19, how many additional people would I have infected had I not been home alone for all of those days before I started showing symptoms?

What are the stats now? Is it 3 days or 14 days of contagiousness before feeling symptoms? I'm very low on news this week.

 

[DaveF]

One thing to remember, when trying to do any extrapolation, is these numbers are not accurate.

They only represent tested cases. The total number of infected people is, in all likelihood, much, much higher.

Yes. I'm trying to be explicit about that. I'm fitting tested cases, which might really mean I'm fitting test-kit availability. But the exponential growth in that also speaks to how widespread this really is...and our profound lack of good data to make policy decisions.

 

[Malcolm R]

The other number I haven’t seen (although it may be out there somewhere) is how many negative tests there are (and the percentage of negative to positive)

Anecdotally, a few days ago I posted from my state, "I heard were 29 positive cases but over 800 negative tests."

So with less than 4% of the tests being positive, it seemed like maybe they were testing a bunch of people that didn't really need it.

 

[Mike2001]

From what I read, symptoms may start to appear from a few days to 14 days after initial infection. I also saw a study that said peak virus shedding (I.e. maximum contagiousness) was 2 to 3 days before the onset of symptoms. Iceland, being small, actually tested 1/30th of its population. They found the same number of asymptomatic (but contagious) carriers as those showing symptoms.