2004 Academy Awards: Early predictions and discussion (1 Viewer)

[Kristian]

quote:I haven't heard any of you mention Ray.

Is that a joke? Nearly everyone here has mentioned Jamie Foxx as a lock.

On a related note, the movie is currently scoring 56% at Rotten Tomatoes. I don't think these bad reviews will affect Jamie Foxx's chances (the reviews were similar for Ali in 2001 and Will Smith still got nominated), but I think they will seriously hurt the movie's chances for a Best Picture nod.

 

[Lew Crippen]

quote:' "I'll tell you why 'The Passion' won't be nominated," snaps one industry executive. "Happily, there are too many people in the Academy who believe the Holocaust actually happened." '

This won't be the reason that the film will not be nominated--it may be a reason that it won't win.





The nomination process is not based on total ballots, but on a process that is designed to allow all opinions to have weight. For example last year in the nomination process, one a film like LOTR had been selected, all the ballots that were included in that film's nomination were excluded from further rounds.





So it is not a popular vote, nor a process of vetos, but rather a process that allows a film with a strong, though minority set of backers to be nominated.





If it is not nominated it won't be because some (or even many) in Hollywood don't like the film (or Gibson).





Of course these factors will be a part of the votes once all of the films are nominated. But this is true every year. Some members vote for people they like and some members won't vote for someone they don't like (the same for subject matters).

 

[Kachi Khatri]

I just need to rant with biopics about people in general. It seems whenever there is one, it's almost a shoe-in for an Oscar nomination and possible win.





Sometimes, even if the actor does not have a fleshed out career, but with one solid acting performance in this type of genre and the Oscar buzz is in.





You want an Oscar nomination...this is your ticket to the Oscar.

 

[Seth Paxton]

Speaking of which, Foxx's most likely competition will be coming from Liam Neeson in Kinsey, a film that will also be in the Best Pix running. We should all be getting our shot to see for ourselves in the next couple of weeks.

I would also add that Finding Neverland and Ray are top contenders. Ray is now running 84% at RT in the cream of the crop, 82% overall. Add the Best Actor nom/win and that film has a lot of weight.

So that's 3 biopics right there, though Finding Neverland has stretched things quite a bit I understand.


Two other major forces for Best Pix seem to be Sideways which is looking extremely strong and has Oscar/award buzz/due with both Payne and Giamati (after last year's A. Splendor) and yet a 4th biopic The Motorcycle Diaries.

So if you put them in with PotC and Eternal Sunshine, you have a pretty strong list. The Incredibles has Pixar's usual outside shot at a nom as well. It does seem as though the year is ending in decent fashion with several top (contender) films panning out. I'd like to hear more on Closer but it also sounds like it could get in the mix, especially with the team involved.

Not a great year for films in total, but it looks like it won't be so bad once its all said and done. We did get a great horror film in DotDead, a great action film in Spidey 2, and a pretty good fantasy film in Harry Potter 3. I won't have 30 films I really liked this year, but I should have 20 I think.

Also, I wonder if Before Sunset will be remembered come Oscars. It did extemely well critically speaking. Certainly it helps to fill up what looks to be some pretty tough acting races.

 

[Craig S]

Add another biopic to your list, Seth - The Sea Inside. Javier Bardem is likely to grab another Best Actor nod for this, and the film itself has to be considered the front-runner (by a long shot) for Best Foreign Language Film.

On Closer, I'm hearing that Natalie Portman in particular has a real good shot at a Supporting Actress nomination (it doesn't hurt that she had another highly praised role this year in Garden State).

I can't wait to see Sideways (opens this week in Houston), and I would put Paul Giamatti as a near-lock at this point, as the Academy will want to make up for overlooking him last year. In fact, Sideways is starting to feel to me like this year's Lost In Translation - wouldn't be surprised to see Best Picture, Actor, Director, Screenplay (Adapted), and Supporting Actress (Virginia Madsen) noms go to this one (based strictly on reviews & buzz at this point).

 

[Holadem]

This is shapping up to be one boring season...





Seabiscuit, Cold Mountain, Big Fish, In America, Mystic River, Last Samurai etc... and of course ROTK were already generating a copious amount of press by this time last year, no?

I just don't any high profile Hollywood OR indie release on the horizon.



--


H

 

[Amy Mormino]

I agree that this awards season is lacking appeal. I really loved ROTK, Lost in Translation, and Master and Commander, but I just don't see any movies to get me excited this year, except maybe Alexander and The Aviator. But early word on Alexander hasn't been great, so I'm not expecting it to be in the race. Oh well, always next year.

 

[Eric.]

Well i hope this doesn't sound to harsh but for me they are looking as largely irrelevant.Why?Well because unless something amazing happens with cinema in the English speaking world in the next month or so i would say most of the films in my top ten for 2004 will be foreign.

The Oscars hold little interest for me to see who they give best foreign film to after last years fiasco with City of God coming away with nothing

To be perfectly honest the best English films i have seen this year are Shaun of the Dead followed closely by Bubba Ho-Tep .Long live the king baby!!

 

[Quentin]

I don't see a lot of "Phantom of the Opera" talk here...so, I'll throw it in.





I saw a screening last night. I think it's a lock for a nom...probably around 8+ noms. It's got to be a strong fave to win as well.





It's not that I thought it was better than Sideways or Eternal Sunshine, or even the Incredibles. It's just THAT KIND of movie.

 

[Seth Paxton]

Well Jeff Wells agrees with you Quentin.

I don't know that Oscar buzz is that low right now. Certainly Ray is cooking pretty hot, especially for Foxx. And I don't think that last year had the buzz you remember it having, no more than this year. Yes, films were mentioned but I don't recall a lot of people beating the joe 6 drums for any film to win. Yes, ROTK had huge buzz but then that was not just Oscar buzz due to the circumstances but also BO buzz.

It is only mid-NOV and we are just talking Oscar a little early. We are only now starting to see the first series of real contenders coming out.

I do (and have in other posts) agree that the PRESEASON was very weak this year, weaker than even last year, though Passion I'd say has plenty of Joe 6 buzz and F911 has had people talking. Maybe we are dismissing it but that doesn't mean that average fans won't be upset if the Academy overlooks them. So that's buzz too.

Anyway, the real heat will get going in a few weeks after many of us have seen a lot of these films and start having a vested interest (emotionally) in which films get nom'd/win. Unlike most years I'd say this Oscar season appears to have more contenders coming through. Usually 2/3 of the expected challengers end up failing.

I mean you threw in Last Samurai which was not even close to the big prize, and even In America ended up mostly on the outside looking in. In fact one sign of the weaker Oscar season was that Seabiscuit was pulled back into contender status after being earlier dismissed as summer fun but not Oscar caliber.

Ray is already here and its getting lots of press I think. Aviator is still a bit away for the real hype machine to go nuts. Kinsey is just starting its 1st tier and about to be wide.

Craig is right about Sideways I think. That film has been getting low but steady buzz. I've seen it discussed several different places, but not hyped out the ass. Looks to be a terrific flick and will likely grow into its full audience (and noms). Definitely in the vien of hte LiT campaign.

Just think about where Chicago was early on. Just a month before release IIRC people were still talking about it being a flop (through the buzz vine). Maybe some disagree with the win but I happened to think it was a stellar success as a musical and was pleased with its win. So the same thing could be going on with something like Phantom, esp when you consider that Joel Screwmaker wrote and directed. People are probably waiting to see it before believing it.

And that means that the real buzz is probably about to start churning over the next few weeks. In fact I'll bet many of us are sick of it by Dec 15th.

 

[George See]

quote:You want an Oscar nomination...this is your ticket to the Oscar

I don't know if i'd say biopic is the end all be all ticket for oscar gold, it certainly didn't work for Jim Carry. If you liked the movie or not he owned andy kaufman.

 

[Adam_S]

moviecitynews.com has a link up to the Aviator trailer. Looks really damn good, DiCaprio especially, hard to tell on Cate's performance as Kate. It doesn't sound as though she's trying to imitate the distinctive voice, but it'll be interesting to see how her manner comes across in the film. Her performance seems to have dropped off Poland's radar, which makes me think it could be one to experience a big surge in the next two months, you never know. Some fabulous imagry at the end of the trailer too. I'm seeing a slew of tech awards to go with the best pic, dir, actor and screenplay it'll pick up. This and Phantom of the Opera are shaping up to be the awards season juggernauts (we'll have to wait and see if colin farrell penis turns off or turns on academy auds) with Sideways slipping in actor and screenplay (I don't see it hitting picture and director. I think either Ray or Kinsey will be another contender on the pic/dir noms, but I'm not sure on which it'll be. I hope Eternal Sunshine gets some love and a better than seabiscuit campaign to get it up on the best pic nom list at least.





Adam

 

[Craig S]

In the last few days, a real front-runner has emerged for BP, at least according to Poland (and Wells, albeit grudgingly) - Joel Schumacher's Phantom Of The Opera. The consensus from the early screenings (despite a few outright pans) is that the film delivers, successfully bringing the popular stage production to screen in a spectacular & satisfying manner. Screening crowds are supposedly eating it up.

Poland says the only film that can stop it now is The Aviator. Screenings have started on Scorsese's latest opus, and early reports are mixed.

Poland's been pretty accurate in the past on his early BP pronouncements. He was one of the first (if not the first) to call it for Chicago two years ago.

Another addition to the biopic derby that I don't think has been mentioned here is Kevin Spacey's Bobby Darin project, Beyond The Sea. The knock on this one all along has been (1) Spacey's too old to play Darin, and (2) who cares about Bobby Darin anyway?? But the film has apparently been very well-received at Academy screenings. Spacey is said to deliver the goods as Darin (I have long heard that he's an excellent song-and-dance man), and may be a strong Best Actor contender.

 

[Haggai]

I sure hope Kaufman wins in Original Screenplay for Eternal Sunshine. He got noms for Malkovich and Adaptation (the latter in Adapted Screenplay), so it's gotta be all but guaranteed that he'll get nominated this time as well, and I hope they'll give it to him. What's his likely competition in this category?

 

[Craig S]

I expect (and hope) that Brad Bird will get an Original Screenplay nod for The Incredibles.

In a perfect world, The Incredibles would be a BP front-runner as well. It's one of the best-reviewed films of the year, and will be one of the most popular as well. It certainly has to be considered a lock for winning Best Animated Feature at this point (sorry, Dreamworks, no repeat for Shrek).

 

[Haggai]

Yeah, Incredibles seems likely for screenplay. Maybe Tarantino as well? I'd be happy about that, let's see if they liked both volumes of Kill Bill enough to nominate him for screenplay on Vol. 2.

 

[Malcolm R]

I'd like to see a Supporting Actress nod for Rosemary Harris (Aunt May) in "Spider-Man 2."

 

[Craig S]

The Documentary finalists have been announced:

• Born into Brothels
• Home of the Brave
• Howard Zinn: You Can't Be Neutral on a Moving Train
• In the Realms of the Unreal
• Riding Giants
• The Ritchie Boys
• The Story of the Weeping Camel
• Super Size Me
• Tell Them Who You Are
• Touching the Void
• Tupac: Resurrection
• Twist of Faith

Surprising omissions include Tarnation, The Control Room, and The Yes Men. Farenheit 9/11, of course, was withdrawn by Michael Moore so he could pursue the BP slot (which is now looking like a lost cause).

There'll be some controversy about Touching the Void, since it features recreated events with actors. But it and Super Size Me would seem to be the front-runners based on their relatively high media profiles (for docus).

 

[Craig S]

And here's the Animated Feature finalists, announced last week:

• Clifford’s Really Big Movie
• Disney’s Teacher’s Pet
• Ghost in the Shell 2: Innocence
• Home on the Range
• The Incredibles
• The Legend of Buddha
• The Polar Express
• Shrek 2
• Shark Tale
• Sky Blue
• The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie

Eleven contenders means there will be three nominees this year. The Incredibles is a lock, and Shrek 2 likely is as well. The race is for the third slot, probably between Shark Tale and The Polar Express. I'm guessing Zemeckis's Christmas tale will get the nod because of its technical achievement, and Dreamworks' misbegotten fish story will be left out in the cold.

But as far as the winner this one is all locked up. If The Incredibles doesn't win it will be a major upset (and just wrong to boot).

 

[Adam_S]

Poland has a new column out today and seems to think Aviator is slipping. Poland is also pushing Sideways hard hard hard a film I felt was good but doesn't quite have it to make it into best picture territory, two or three acting noms and a writer nod, sure, but not picture or director. Sideways is a good film but didn't feel to have any of the appeal In America had, a film with a really damn good shot, much stronger than Sideways.

Anyways here's what I think will be nominated for best picture: The Aviator
Closer
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Phantom of the Opera
Ray

and I think Closer will win with Scorsese picking up the director award.