2004 Academy Awards: Early predictions and discussion

Discussion in 'Movies' started by Nathan V, Sep 10, 2004.

  1. Nathan V

    Nathan V Supporting Actor

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    2004 is 3/4ths over, and Oscar season starts in a few weeks. It's time to start the annual discussions.

    There are a few things that set this year apart from most others:

    -The Passion of the Christ.
    The eighth highest grossing film of all time, if my memory serves me right, and highly regarded by many. The best religious movie in years. The question here is, how will the film figure into the academy awards? Awareness of the film is not a problem, despite the early release; people have been talking about it practically non-stop since the internet teaser came out over a year ago. I can definitely see some smaller nominations. Cinematography, Costumes, Effects(?), Makeup (btw, can someone quickly recap what the hell happened with 2002 makeup? I remember somethingabout bizarre guidelines and The Time Machine), and other non-major awards. If the year turns out to be weak, I can see a Best Actor, and maybe even a Director nom.

    -Jude Law.
    The man is everywhere. I can't remember a time with one man in so many films at once- and headlining most of them. I was at the Bourne Supremacy, and every trailer had Jude Law in it!!! Although he probably won't be nominated six times, expect, at the absolute very least, 1 or 2 noms, most likely from Alfie, Closer, and the Aviator (in which he has 1 scene, which has been talked baout ever since he was cast).

    -Farenheit 9/11 and Michael Moore.
    This is election year. Depending on what happens in November, Farenheit (sp?) could show up in major categories, but I highly doubt it.

    People always say it's pointless to start discussing Oscar until October or November, but let's keep in mind that they are always films from earlier that show up in the race. It happens every year.

    Anyway, here's the lineup-

    September:
    Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow. Jude Law #1. This film will not flop- check Mr. Weinberg's 7-page thread for extended discussion on why. I think it will appeal to older markets, and perhaps even kids, Critics will definitely get into the 30's art-deco approach. I see an FX nom on the horizon...

    Wimbledon. Expect nothing.

    The Motorcycle Diaries. I think this'll be great, but don't expect any noms besides screenplay.

    Vanity Fair. No idea what the story is on this one.

    Other assorted stuff in September-

    Mr. 3000
    The Final Cut (robin williams thriller)
    Head in the Clouds (Charlize, period piece with bad reviews)
    The Forgotten
    First Daughter

    Silver City- Chris Cooper plays a version of George W. John Sayles directs. Getting average-good reviews. (shot on 16mm)

    October:
    Ray. 100% chance of an actor nomination. But, who the heck is Taylor Hackford?

    Ladder 49. How good is a fireman movie going to do right now, I wonder?

    Alfie. Jude Law #2. This is a remake, by a no-name director. I can see a good movie that doesn't live up to the original, which had Michael Caine, that could have award-worthy acting but will be overshadowed by Law's other perf's.

    I Heart huckabees. Jude Law #3. A killer cast, with a very good writer/director. I don't know too much about this. perhaps someone else can eleborate.

    Team America: World Police. I get the feeling this won't be getting many nominations. I also get the feeling it's going to be hilarious.

    Friday Night Lights
    Stage Beauty- billy crudup transvestite theatre movie. USA Today included in their short list of "notable" upcoming films.

    Shark Tale. I want to talk about this for a minute. I think I figured out why Martin Scorsese's in this- because Joe Pesci won in 1990 for Goodfellas. You'll remember that he was also in Home Alone that year, a fun box-office hit. Scorsese might be going for the same approach- "I can direct the Aviator, but I can also be in hip, funny movies," that sort of thing. Or he might just to take his career in new directions, like being in an animated fish movie.

    Shall We Dance
    The Machinist (christian bale thriller)
    Sideways- Alexander Payne's next, Paul Giamatti, outstanding advance reviews

    Undertow- from David Gordon Green , the director of George Washington and All the Real Girls. Probably no nominations, but I am so in line for this.

    Vera Drake- Mike Leigh's next. I have no idea what this is about.

    The Grudge
    Taxi

    November:
    Finding Neverland, from Miramax. Ebert, who saw it at Toronto, liked it a lot, likening it to a Beautiful Mind, and likening it to the old classics, in that it appeals to all age groups (film is classified PG).

    The Incredibles- Pixar's next, from the dir. of the Iron Giant. Best Animated Film, here we come.

    Surviving Christmas
    Christmas with the Kranks- based on a John Grisham novel!

    Bridget Jones 2

    Alexander. 11-time nominee and 2-time best-director winner Oliver Stone is back. This is a huge contender, a lock for many of the majors in my opinion. The last of the sword and sandal epics, this is going to make Troy look even more like a made-for-TV movie. Cinematography by Rodrigo Prieto. A couple of side notes- Oliver is the sole writer. He also spent the past YEAR editing.

    Millions- from Danny Boyle, director of Transpotting and 28 Days later. Amazingly, this film has no sex, drugs, or violence.

    The Spongebob SquarePants movie. November's other big contender. Tom Kenny's performance is said to be superb. Acting, picture, and director nominations are very likely.

    The Polar Express. Tom Hanks and Robert Zemeckis. 'Nuff said. However, besides playing himself, Hanks will also play Marlon Brando in a supoorting role. I'm not so sure about that.

    Bad Education. From the great Pedro Almodovar, and starring Gael Garcia Bernal as a transvestite. Talk to Her got screenplay and director noms. It could happen again; the buzz is great. And is it me, or does this have the coolest title ever?

    Birth-Nic Kidman. 'good performance in a mediocre film' is the word on the street.

    After the Sunset

    Beyond the Sea- a biopic on Bobby Darin (no, I don't know who he is either). Kevin Spacey's dream project, in which he co-wrote, directed and stars in. The trailer show potential. Kevin Spacey is in bad need of a hit.

    National Treasure- the worst, most laughable trailer in years. I'm sorry.

    Kinsey, by Bill Condon. The buzz calls for a Best actor nomination.

    December:
    Martin Scorsese's The Aviator. Aside from Alexander, this is really the only lock I see for the majors. DiCaprio WILL get nominated, as will Marty. If my Shark Tale theory is correct, he will win as well. The film is about Howard Hughes, early Hollywood, and aviation; it features everyone and their grandmother, from Willem Defoe to Gwen Stefani. Expect a slew of supporting noms. Also, this film, amazingly, is said to have no violence whatsoever; as of now, this is my prediction for the BP winner. (jude law #4)

    The Woodsman (kevin bacon pedophile movie)

    Lemony Snicket's A series of Unfortunate events. based on the popular kid's series. Paramount wants this to be the next Harry Potter. The trailer is fascinating- check it out. (jude law #5)

    Ocean's Twelve- same cast and director. Expect strong BO.

    An Unfinished Life, from Lasse Hallstrom, whose "Shipping News" vanished the week it came out. This film stars Jennifer Lopez and Robert Redford "as you've never seen him before," if the buzz is to be believed.

    Fierce People
    Blade 3
    Meet the Fockers
    Phantom of the Opera- directed by, of all the people, Joel Schumacher. Reviews will lead to techies.
    Spanglish- Adam Sandler drama, except not directed by PTA.

    Proof- Gwyneth, Hopkins, Jake Gyllenhall. By John Madden. It's about fear, uncertainty, death, and mathematics. Not sure how this will turn out.

    Closer, by Mike Nichols. The trailer looks terrific, very wierd. This has potential written all over it. (jude law #6)

    Synergy

    The Life Aquatic by Wes Anderson. Criterion, please do this one! Screenplay, but probably not Actor, although Gene Hackman did get a golden globe for the Royal Tenenbaums.

    A Very Long Engagment- the director and star of Amelie. A big-budget WW1 romance. This ALREADY has FYC ads out!!! (You know who's distributing this! [​IMG] )

    The Assassination of Richard Nixon- Sean Penn and Naomi Watts. Do I need to say more?

    Hotel Rwanda- Don Cheadle saves the lives of 1200 opressed Tusis in the 1994 Rwandan genocide (this is the event discussed briefly in Collateral). Joaquin Pheonix and Nick Nolte costar. This opens Christmas Eve [​IMG].
    UPDATE: This just won the majors at Toronto.

    Let the discussion begin. What do people think about these titles? Please, feel free to supply more info than th ultra-brief synopses I provided. What do people think about stuff from the past 9 months? (eternal sunshine, hero, etc)

    Regards,
    Nathan
     
  2. Nick C.

    Nick C. Second Unit

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    So many titles, and despite the compressed awards season, where many studios/mini's vowed to push up release dates, quite a few heavy weights are slated for pretty late in the season. Then again, there have already been so many outstanding titles already...

    I guess if there's anything to the worthlessness of the Oscars, I'd like to see Jim Carrey get some "recognition", if ETERNAL SUNSHINE's DVD push or LEMONY SNICKET's theatrical run succeeds. If Law gets in on 2 nods (unlikely, as I don't think he's built up the street cred of a dual nominee like Emma Thompson, Julianne Moore, or Pacino), I'm guessing they'd for CLOSER with supporting for HUCKABEES or AVIATOR.
     
  3. Kristian

    Kristian Supporting Actor

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    Before I clicked on this thread, I thought it was about the Sylvester Stallone movie. [​IMG] Maybe an admin can change the title to something more descriptive?

    Now, on to the topic...

    Best Picture: The Passion of the Christ and Fahrenheit 9/11 will have a lot of buzz going in, but I just can't see the Academy going for such controversial films. Then again, there don't seem to be that many safe choices out there, either (except maybe The Aviator). Personally, I'm rooting for Spider-Man 2 to get a nod. After all, it's the best-reviewed major release of the year and Return of the King already showed that it's possible for a fantasy sequel to win big.

    Best Actor: Jamie Foxx is looking like a lock for Ray. Liam Neeson is also getting a lot of buzz for Kinsey. I'd love to see Tom Cruise nominated for Collateral, but he might be submitted as Supporting Actor. Jim Caviezel will probably not get a nod, unfortunately.

    Best Actress: I was going to mention that it looks like it could be Natalie Portman's year, but I'm not really sure if her performances this year (in Garden State and Closer) could be considered leading roles. The only other contenders I see out there are Uma Thurman for Kill Bill Volume 2, Kate Winslet for Eternal Sunshine and Neve Campbell for When Will I Be Loved.

    Best Special Effects: As of right now, the race is between Spider-Man 2, Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban and The Day After Tomorrow. Sky Captain and Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events could replace the latter two, though.

    Best Cinematography: If it weren't for all the controversy, The Passion would win this easily. Alexander and The Aviator will probably be in the running. And if voters ignore their failures at the box office, The Terminal and The Village could become contenders.

    Best Score: Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban is a sure bet to be nominated here. The Passion and The Village are the only others I can see right now being nominated.

    Best Animated Feature: Shrek 2 is the huge frontrunner here, but that could change if The Incredibles is as good as the previous Pixar films.

    Best Documentary: Now that Fahrenheit 9/11 is out of the running, I think Control Room will most likely win this. But of course, it will have some strong competition from the likes of Bush's Brain, Metallica: Some Kind of Monster, The Hunting of the President, Super Size Me and others.
     
  4. Ocean Phoenix

    Ocean Phoenix Supporting Actor

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    I hope David Carradine gets a best supporting actor nomination for Kill Bill: Volume 2, continuing the trend of the supporting roles in Tarantino's films always getting recognized at the Oscars (ie Samuel L. Jackson in Pulp Fiction and Robert Forrester in Jackie Brown).

    I'm sure Carradine would be honoured just to be nominated after a career that most people would agree (and he probably would too) can best be described as that of a "B actor". I haven't seen too many movies that came out this year, but I can't imagine many performances being as simultaneously fun and fascinating as his was. I'd like to see him not only be nominated, but also win. He's been around for a long time, and this is probably his last and only shot at an Oscar nomination, as he isn't an actor one would expect to see nominated many times.
     
  5. Neil M

    Neil M Stunt Coordinator

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    I don't know if The Aviator is going to be a good movie or not but it seems like this could be Martin Scorsese's year to win Best Director. I'd sure like to see him finally get one. I think Bryce Howard deserves a nomination for her performance in The Village. I really hope that Metallica: Some Kind of Monster wins for Best Doc. although Super Size Me is also very deserving. I know that one of these Iraq/Bush documentaries will probably win but in a year where one subject is told from different views in multiple films, I can't stand to see any one of them win. It's useless to try and figure out Best Picture right now but there are many deserving films so far and I'm sure there will be many more. Nothing really sticks out in my mind as a sure frontrunner as of this moment but I'd like to see Garden State get a nomination.
     
  6. Kevin Grey

    Kevin Grey Cinematographer

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    He's been directing for almost 30 years. Director of An Officer and a Gentelman, Against All Odds, Dolores Claiborne, and Devil's Advocate to name a few. His last film was the ill-fated Meg Ryan/Russell Crowe Proof of Life.
     
  7. BridgetJZ

    BridgetJZ Second Unit

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    I don't know that Super Size Me is deserving of an oscar, especially in the documentary category. Isn't the point of a documentary to document a story, rather than create one and exaggerate it?
     
  8. ScottR

    ScottR Cinematographer

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    I think Passion will get a Best Picture nod, although it probably won't win. It will probably also get a nod for Best Actor, and two Supporting Actress nods (for Mother Mary and Satan) and Best Director. It will probably win for Score and Cinematography.

    I have a strong feeling that Johnny Depp is going to win Best Actor this year; just a gut instinct.

    Shrek2 will probably win for Best Animated Feature, although The Polar Express and The Incredibles could give it a run for its money.
     
  9. Nathan V

    Nathan V Supporting Actor

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    Kristian, I purposefully made the thread title as vague as possible so more people would click on it, but seeing as there's been hardly any responses, this was hardly the approach for me to take. Don't want to disappoint any more Sly Stallone fans out there!

    The Spider-man 2 comment is interesting. I wonder if the gross of this, along with Shrek 2, will lead either to get more than the usual FX, animated film nods. We shall see.

    Kevin, thanks for the clarification. Good to know Ray has a solid director behind it. Paul Fischer just saw the film over at Toronto and agreed the Foxx is a lock, but also raved about the film in general, saying it takes biopics to a new level. This might get more nominations than people think. Also, it comes out extra early.

    Fischer also says "Assassination of Richard Nixon" is ultra-dark, which probably nixes it from any nominations. Doesn't stop it from being good, though.

    Super Size Me will probably get nominated due to hype and interesting subject material. I do not see it winning. It's difficult to say what's gonna happen in that category.

    Scott, I would love to see the Passion get a nomination. One thing's for sure though, there's no way it could possibly win. That's pretty much the only definite this year- makes it a little more fun then last year, when we pretty much knew all the winners before the nominations were even announced!

    Regards,
    Nathan
     
  10. BridgetJZ

    BridgetJZ Second Unit

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    Couldn't have said it better myself...
     
  11. Chris

    Chris Lead Actor

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    I went back tonight and watched several films, and finished with TPOTC.

    I realize it's controversial, but there are very few films I can think of that have such mesmorizing cinematography to so completely envelope the audience. The lighting, staging, and camera movements put the audience in so close, taking rolls as spectators, persecutors, and sympathizers.

    I would love to see it pick up multiple nominations, but if any that it, at this point in the year stands hands and shoulders above, it is cinematography, and potentially costume design.

    I think Alexander will also be a powerful force at the Oscars.
     
  12. Jeff D Han

    Jeff D Han Supporting Actor

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    I would like to see Eternal Sunshine get some
    recognition for actress (Kate Winslet) and
    screenplay (original?).

    Spider-Man 2 will probably get nominated for
    visual effects and sound, but I don't think
    it will get into the major categories.
     
  13. Kristian

    Kristian Supporting Actor

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    I just saw Vanity Fair and I think it's a really strong contender for the Art Direction, Cinematography, Costume Design, Score and Song Oscars. Had it been better received by the critics, it might've also secured a Best Actress nod for Reese Witherspoon.
     
  14. Bryan Tuck

    Bryan Tuck Screenwriter

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    I agree that The Aviator will probably be the "safe" Best Picture nominee this year (just speculation, though). It would be great to see Scorcese finally win, but I just hope the movie is good.

    I really have no idea what's going to happen with The Passion of the Christ and Fahrenheit 9/11. The Passion should get nods for cinematography and music, and perhaps makeup. I doubt it will get recognized in any of the top categories, though; I think there was just too many people who were on the fence about it. As for Fahrenheit, I know we're all supposed to admire Michael Moore for eschewing an easy win in the Documentary category, but I really hope this thing is not nominated for Best Picture. And that's not meant to be a political statement; I actually think there were some good points made in the film, but I also thought it was surprisingly poorly made.

    I imagine Phantom will probably at least get a nomination for the one new song in it (usually happens that way). I hope it will be a good film and get more, though. Keep Joel Schumacher away from Batman, and he can make a pretty decent movie.

    Anyway, just some thoughts.
     
  15. Nathan V

    Nathan V Supporting Actor

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    I agree about the Aviator. Although, I never thought I'd ever end up calling a Scorsese picture a 'safe' movie and sure thing for best picture!

    I don't want F9/11 to be nominated. I mean, I like the movie a lot, and am very glad it got made and strongly recieved, but as Bryan said, it's just not very well made. Another thing- the film will rapidly lose relevance with the passage of time. It's a document that makes sense now, but might seem dated very soon. I mean, who watches biased news coverage from 1998? Hell, depending in the election results in November, this film might fade a lot faster than we think. Bowling for Columbine is different in that it deals with an issue that's going to be around forever, and has been around forever. it too will fade away, but not for awhile.

    I forgot all about Vanity Fair. Will someone tell me if this movie is good? The trailer shows a bunch of unrelated images, coupled with narration that has nothing to do with the footage being shown, and ends in what looks like a scene from a Bollywood musical. You can color me confused.
     
  16. Kristian

    Kristian Supporting Actor

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    It's more of a feast for the eyes and ears than for the heart and mind, which is why I think it'll only be nominated for the technical categories (if at all). Still, I think it's definitely worth seeing.
     
  17. MatthewLouwrens

    MatthewLouwrens Producer

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    I don't know, a Best Actor nomination certainly seems a possibility. But probably not Picture or Director.
     
  18. Bryan Tuck

    Bryan Tuck Screenwriter

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    I'd certainly vote for Caviezel if I were in the Academy; I guess we'll see. I just don't think they'll take the film seriously enough. I hope I'm wrong, though.

    At any rate, if it doesn't get nods for cinematography, music, and makeup, then there is some serious bias going on.

    Of course, what is else is new? [​IMG]

    Also, I admit I haven't seen all of the holiday offerings yet, and there are only so many places in each category. I guess we'll see.
     
  19. Bryan Tuck

    Bryan Tuck Screenwriter

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    Double-post; sorry, my computer is acting up again.
     
  20. Kenneth

    Kenneth Supporting Actor

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    One thing TPotC might have going for it is that the Academy almost always includes one "popular" movie in the Best Picture Catagory. That doesn't mean it will win but it might be good enough to draw the nomination.

    Looking at the top 4 movie in combined box office for 2004 you have Shrek 2 (will get the nomination in animated), Harry Potter III, Spiderman 2, and The Passion. Since I don't think they will nominate Shrek 2 for anything other than the animated (no best picture), I think they will nominate one of those three remaining ones. It is possible they might go with Potter or Spiderman but I think they will bow to the artistic elements of The Passion and give it a Best Picture nom. I would be surprised if they give Gibson a director nom though.

    Kenneth
     

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