2004 Academy Awards: Early predictions and discussion (1 Viewer)

[Jose Martinez]

No disrespect to all that passed away since last year's Oscars, but Johnny Carson will definitely get the biggest applause.

 

[Craig S]

Where is MDB getting 10+ noms from??

Very Likely:

Picture
Director
Actress (Swank)
Supp Actor (Freeman)
Screenplay
Editing

Possible:

Cinematography

Possible, but unlikely:

Actor (Eastwood)

It's not eligible for Makeup, VFX, or Sound Editing. Disqualified for Score. That leaves Sound, Costume, Art Direction, and those just aren't going to happen.

I see MDB coming in with 6-7 noms. Am I missing something??

 

[teapot2001]

I don't think there'll be any special tribute for him, since he was in the TV industry and the award show is a good month away. He'll be included with the rest of the people who have passed away. There are more important people in the movie industry who deserve sole tributes more than Carson, and they probably won't get one.

~T

 

[Kirk Tsai]

How many have we've seen in the last few years? I can only remember two for Hepburn and Bob Hope. If there's one person this year that gets his/her own slot, it's Brando, by far and away. I wouldn't mind if they used a Elmer Bernstein or Jerry Goldsmith cue for background music, as well as muting the crowd reception during the segment. Don't make a tribute into a popularity contest.

 

[Ray Chuang]

I think you'll see separate tributes to BOTH Johnny Carson and Marlon Brando at this year's Oscar ceremonies.

Why? Carson will get it because many movie stars became famous by being on The Tonight Show between 1962 and 1992 and the fact Carson hosted the Oscar ceremonies multiple times; Brando will get it because of his extremely long and highly distinguished acting career.

 

[Craig S]

Surprises - always surprises. This year, I personally think they were not pleasant ones.

Big wow - Giamatti dissed again! Eastwood in. That's the big story to me. Absolutely unbelieveable.

Some of us saw Alda making the cut, but after the SAGs, I was backing off of him. Really would have preferred Highmore here.

The directors LOVE Mike Leigh. No one saw that one coming.

House Of Flying Daggers overlooked for Foreign Film. Hard to say much here with most of the nominees unseen by most of us.

More later.

 

[Chuck Mayer]

Craig,
Having seen HoFD, I don't think it was overlooked. I'm not surprised about Leigh, for the reason you mentioned.

More in other thread now

 

[Seth Paxton]

I wasn't saying it would, I was saying if you give Aviator just what you might expect but give M$Baby everything it possibly could still get, including all the Guild wins over Aviator, that it still couldn't catch it. It was hypothetical to show that M$B was already screwed.


Okay, I guess we are still going to use this thread for general Oscars discussion, so getting away from the noms and back to the race, here are the Best Pix numbers. If you don't want Aviator to win it all, don't look.


21.02 - Aviator
14.48 - Sideways
14.29 - Million Dollar Baby
13.01 - Finding Neverland
8.05 - Ray

6.28 - Rwanda
6.13 - Eternal Sunshine
4.92 - Kinsey
4.58 - Closer

So the numbers did pick the 5 noms in this case, ie no real "snub" for Best Pix.

Aviator could push past films like Chicago, Schindlers List, and Shakespeare in Love. SList didn't get 1 point because the SAG cast award didn't exist yet and it likely would have won it (or .7 for the nom), but even that would have left it at 22.23.

Editing and SAG cast wins could get Aviator past that, DGA win would be even more.

In any case, Aviator wins. It's totally over. This year's totals look very standard, especially by recent year standards in which most of the noms get into the 12-14 range. Last year was the first time all 5 went over 10, but Ray won't get there this year for the repeat.


Notice also that Sideways is actually stronger than M$Baby still, despite missing Giamatti to Eastwood.

 

[Ernest Rister]

Which makes little sense to me, because Sideways is an actor's film, completely character driven, and the loss of Giamatti has to be a crushing blow because it reveals a lack of enthusiasm.

Conversely, the appearance of Eastwood in the acting category bespeaks a groundswell of affection for Eastwood and his film, and from where I sit, Million Dollar Baby just got a major shot in the arm.

It may not be enough, but M$B clearly has to be regarded as the only strong contendor to Aviator right now.

 

[Haggai]

Ernest, I agree completely, especially on Sideways. Major surprise with Giamatti not getting nominated--in many ways, he makes the whole movie work! Though, unfortunately, I don't think M$B has any chance now for Best Picture.

 

[Ernest Rister]

You're probably right, but I'm going to be rooting for Clint, anyway.

 

[Joel C]

Man, that's just depressing. Sure, Aviator is an entertaining film, but it's nothing more. I can't imagine anyone getting really passionate about it, a biopic built on flash with nothing much to say.

Sideways is just about perfect as far as I'm concerned. I haven't had a chance to see Eastwood's film yet. Eternal Sunshine was the best thing I saw all year, but I knew it had no chance at anything other than what it got.