2004 Academy Awards: Early predictions and discussion (1 Viewer)

[Ernest Rister]

"If The Incredibles doesn't win it will be a major upset (and just wrong to boot)."

As if Shrek winning over Monsters, Inc. wasn't just as wrong. The Academy Awards are meaningless. The entire history of the awards are rank with mistakes, prejudices, oversights, biases, prejudices, and politics. If The Incredibles wins, its just as meaningless as Shrek beating Monsters, Inc a few years ago, just as wrong as Roy Disney's Destino losing out in the shorts category last year. The awards mean nothing.

 

[Lou Sytsma]

Whatever happens I predict the ratings are going to take a big hit this year....

 

[ZacharyTait]

While I think Shrek deserved the win, if the second does, I'll be disappointed. Shrek 2 was hilarious and fun to watch, but The Incredibles stands head and shoulders above it as far as I'm concerned.

 

[Craig S]

You're right about that (IMO), but it wasn't an upset, which was my main point.

I'm with Zachary on Adam's choices. Swap Sideways for Ray. At least that what my gut is saying. If Ray does get in, I think it more likely that it will be at the expense of The Aviator, which has suffered from some less-than-stellar early reviews.

Poland does have Ray at number 2 right now, and Sideways at 3. I do hope Eternal Sunshine gets in there, but Poland has it just missing.

But it's early, and things will change.

 

[MatthewLouwrens]

What's with all this Incredibles/Shrek 2 discussion. There is only one deserving winner of the animation award this year - Clifford’s Really Big Movie.

 

[Adam_S]

I've thought a little more about best director and here's what I'm thinking right now:

Best Director:
Brooks/Eastwood
Gibson
Nichols
Schumacher
Scorsese

With Almodovar and Payne being my other two choices if Spang*lish and Million Dollar Baby flop hard, respectively. And I think Gibson has a better shot at being nominated than for PotC to be nominated for best picture (though I think it could make it in for Eternal Sunshine, especially with him running a low key Screener/screenings only campaign. In a year with no front runner, I could concieve of PotC getting enough votes to squeak in as first or second tier choices by people selecting the most significant film as well as those picking it as their favorite in the nominating process (if PotC is nominated, expect the biggest ratings since Titanic oscars). But I think that's still pretty unlikely but Gibson may be acknowledged for the achievement especially if does lots of personal appearances at screenings. I expect PotC to be relatively high on Seth's formula list cause I think it'll be picking up several awards from other organizations, nominations from critics groups and nominations from trade awards. The cinematography, costumes, makeup, and score should all be very strong contenders.

I think Best actor is the toughest category to call right now because it seems to be a really strong year for excellent/great performances.

 

[Kachi Khatri]

Directors coming out of the shadows
By Scott Bowles, USA TODAY

Martin Scorsese remembers the moment he gave up on the Academy Awards.

The director, then 34, was flipping through a trade magazine in 1977 when he saw that he was snubbed for a nomination for best director — even though his film, Taxi Driver, managed four nominations, including best picture. "After that, I stopped caring," he says. "I realized that the Oscars and I were going on different paths."

Perhaps, but the director and the statuette have come tantalizingly close over the years. And the hottest question early in this Oscar race is whether this might finally be Scorsese's year: His Howard Hughes movie, The Aviator, opens Dec. 17 with great Oscar expectations.


He'll face stiff competition. In a wide-open Oscar season, the directors field offers the most tantalizing story lines. Will Oliver Stone deliver with his historical epic? Can Clint Eastwood get his second nomination in two years and cement his place among the greats?

Plenty of spoilers are hoping for a first nod: Alexander Payne for Sideways, Taylor Hackford for Ray, and Switzerland's Marc Forster (Finding Neverland) leads a pack of hopeful foreign directors. (Related story: Where are the women directors?)

Spotlight on directors' Oscar dance

USA TODAY's Scott Bowles, Claudia Puig and Susan Wloszczyna profile the seven directors who have been nominated for Oscars before and their holiday offerings.

Oliver Stone

Alexander, opening Tuesday

Premise: An epic look at the Macedonian king (Colin Farrell) as he leads his armies through Greece, Persia and India while battling trained armies, elephants and the influences of his parents (Val Kilmer and Angelina Jolie).

Pedigree: Stone has a few statuettes already, including two for best director for 1986's Platoon and 1989's Born on the Fourth of July, as well as one for best adapted screenplay for Midnight Express in 1978. He has been nominated for eight others for writing, directing and producing for films including 1995's Nixon, 1986's Salvador and JFK in 1991.

His inspiration for Alexander:"I've always been fascinated by history, and Alexander is about as special as they come," Stone says. "More than 2,000 years have passed since his time, and we still know his name. He's the greatest conqueror and one of the greatest leaders the world has seen."

Outlook: The battles and sweep of the film have Oscar written all over them. But the stilted dialogue and jumbled story line have taken the air out of its awards hype.

Mike Leigh

Vera Drake, in theaters

Premise: Vera Drake (Imelda Staunton) is a family woman who quietly performs abortions in 1950s England, a practice that imperils her family.

Pedigree: Leigh was nominated for best director for 1996's Secrets & Lies and has two writing nominations, for Secrets and 1999's Topsy-Turvy.

His inspiration for Vera Drake: "I've always been intrigued by families and the pressures they face," he says. "All of my movies deal with parents, having children, not having children. It's the drama that all of us face and can't avoid."

Outlook: Reviews have been strong, particularly for Staunton. But the subject matter may be too controversial and the movie's scale too small to get Oscar's attention.

Mike Nichols

Closer, Dec. 3

Premise: A searingly honest, caustic drama about the passions and foibles of four Londoners (Julia Roberts, Clive Owen, Jude Law and Natalie Portman) who pair up, break up and make up.

Pedigree: You couldn't ask for a more impressive career than that of German-born director Nichols. He won the best director Oscar for 1967's The Graduate and was nominated three other times, for 1966's Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf?, 1983's Silkwood and Working Girl in 1988. He was also nominated for best picture after producing 1993's Remains of the Day.

His inspiration for Closer: "I read the play by Patrick Marber long before I ever saw it, and I just couldn't get it out of my head," he says. "There's just something about that dread question 'I promise I won't be mad, but I just want to know (about a suspected infidelity).' The horror that ensues answering that question seems to be at the heart of something, and I was endlessly interested."

Outlook: Nichols is a much-admired veteran who may get a nomination for his non-linear style of direction on Closer. And there could be nominations for the actors, particularly Portman. But the film is dark, insular and could prove too disturbing for academy members.

James L. Brooks

Spanglish, Dec. 17

Premise: A Mexican housekeeper (Paz Vega) with a young daughter is hired by a world-class L.A. chef (Adam Sandler) and his high-strung wife (Téa Leoni). Cultures clash but eventually click.

Pedigree: Brooks scored a directing Oscar with his first film, 1983's Terms of Endearment, which also won best picture.

His inspiration for Spanglish: "Bits of things in my head came together. This Hispanic woman I knew had a 12-year-old child who had been in this country for 10 years and she wanted her to get a taste of who she was. So she took her to her homeland."

Outlook: Brooks is a maestro when it comes to striking resonant relationship chords. And the Hispanic theme could not be more timely. If moviegoers can embrace Sandler as an adult success instead of a whiny loser, then Spanglish could be a holiday hit.

Martin Scorsese

The Aviator, Dec. 17

Premise: A biopic depicting the early years of legendary director and aviator Howard Hughes (Leonardo DiCaprio), from the late 1920s to the mid-1940s, when he courted stars Katharine Hepburn (Cate Blanchett) and Ava Gardner (Kate Beckinsale).

Pedigree: Scorsese is Hollywood's bridesmaid, having been nominated for best director for four films, 1980's Raging Bull, 1988's The Last Temptation of Christ, 1990's Goodfellas and 2002's Gangs of New York. But he has never won.

His inspiration for The Aviator: "I really didn't know anything about the man other than the name," Scorsese says. "But I had always been fascinated with flying — even though I'm not a fan of it — and of Hollywood back in that era."

Outlook: Scorsese is the sentimental favorite again. But he will have to bring out the man in DiCaprio if he is to take the gold.

Clint Eastwood

Million Dollar Baby, Dec. 17

Premise: In the wake of a painful estrangement from his daughter, boxing trainer Frankie Dunn (Clint Eastwood) has been unwilling to let himself get close to anyone — until boxer Maggie Fitzgerald (Hilary Swank) enters his gym.

Pedigree: Eastwood won the best-director Oscar for 1992's Unforgiven, which also nabbed him the best-picture Oscar and a best- actor nomination. He was nominated for best director and best picture for last year's Mystic River.

His inspiration for Baby: "Clint talks a lot about looking at how families can form, even dysfunctional ones, when your real family kind of disintegrates," Swank says. "This is less about boxing than about the need to find a family to belong to, in whatever form it takes."

Outlook: The up-and-comer of the mix. Eastwood, who is known for his quick work, finished the film early, and the buzz is strong in several categories, particularly best actress for Swank.

Robert Zemeckis

The Polar Express, in theaters

Premise: A boy whose belief in Santa Claus is waning takes a ride on a mysterious nighttime train to the North Pole, where he meets Santa Claus. Based on the classic holiday tale by writer/illustrator Chris Van Allsburg.

Pedigree: Zemeckis won a best-director Oscar for 1994's Forrest Gump and was nominated for a best-original-screenplay Oscar for 1985's Back to the Future.

His inspiration for Polar Express: Van Allsburg's stylized illustrations inspired Zemeckis to come up with a new film technique that combines live action and computer animation. "I wanted it to look like a movie in oil painting, then have all the warmth and immediacy and subtleties of a human performance," he says.

Outlook: The movie is faithful to the book, but reviews were mixed and box office disappointing. Technical Oscar nominations are likely.

---------------------------

"He'll face stiff competition."

I don't think so, they seem to neglect Passion of Christ.

I believe if Passion of Christ is nominated then my guess
is between Scorsese & Gibson.

It may finally be Scorsese's year.

 

[Chris]

If Alexander wiffs anything but Razzies nods, it'll be an upset.

 

[teapot2001]

I'll predict these for best picture nominees:
-The Aviator
-The Passion of Christ
-Spanglish
-Closer
-Ray

Finding Neverland, Sideways, or Phantom of the Opera could replace one of those.

~T

 

[Quentin]

Since this is a prediction thread...

I'd say Phantom and Million Dollar Baby are now locks for BP. Other contenders will be Aviator, Spanglish, Closer, Ray, Sideways.

Foxx is a lock for Actor nom. Probably Eastwood and Bardem as well.

 

[Nathan V]

Wow, this race just changed a whole bunch. I was not even aware that Spanglish was a contender, and had never heard of Million Dollar Baby. I doubt that either will show up at the majors; nothing about the Spanglish trailer evokes oscar for me, and Clint's recent projects starring himself have been none too great (Blood Work, Space Cowboys). Although I find it funny that the USA Today article describes Clint Eastwood as an "up-an-comer." Clearly somebody was asleep between 1965 and 2003.

I hope we get some good foreign film recognition this year, it's certainly possible, with Motorcycle Diaries, Bad Education, A Very Long Engagement, and maybe even Hero.

Alexander may be the best-shot film of the year, but BOY is it ever out of the oscar race. Biggest cinematic letdown I've had in years. This just might flop harder than Pluto Nash.

As far as locks for picture, I'm only saying Aviator, Kinsey, Phantom, and probably Closer for now. Ray will probably get in there somehow. Sideways is a lock for screenplay. I'm real interested in seeing what happens to Eternal Sunshine.

Here's some excerpts from Variety's Aviator rave-

"An enormously entertaining slice of biographical drama...Martin Scorsese's most pleasurable narrative feature in many a year is both extravagant and disciplined, grandly conceived and packed with minutiae."

"Scorsese, who came aboard the project when Michael Mann decided he couldn't do a third big bio picture in a row, has injected his own mania for cinema into Hughes' obsession for aviation and, secondarily, for filmmaking and actresses. Resulting energy propels every aspect of the production, notably the performances, exceptionally dense soundtrack and magnificent design. If "Gangs of New York" felt heavy and never found its proper rhythm, "The Aviator" runs like a dream on all cylinders with scarcely a sputter or a cough."

This is going to be a big one, folks...the talent on this is amazing. Robert Richardson, Thelma Schoonmaker, Dante Feretti, Howard Shore, and of course Scorsese and DiCaprio (who is, for all intents and purposes, the new DeNiro), plus a cast featuring everyone and their grandmother. I'm expecting 10+ noms.

Color me stoked!

FYI, the movie is PG-13 (!) and 166 mins. without credits.

 

[teapot2001]

Three of the four movies that James L. Brooks has written and directed has ended up receiving best picture nominations, with all three garnering a total 25 Oscar nominations.

~T

 

[Seth Paxton]

I'd like to see Kinsey first, but based on response and what I saw in Ray, I'd consider it to have a better shot for Best Pix.

When you consider what LiT did last year, I think that Sideways has a Best Pix shot with Payne having the name.


Of course, any article that mentions Stone/Alexander and Oscars is immediately unreliable and crap.

I still like the buzz on Aviator, Closer and (gasp) the Phantom. Aviator will likely be a $100m film, and that gives it a great shot. Of course if Phantom is really as good as buzzed then it could do pretty well also at the BO.



Not tons of great stuff this year, but it still looks to be a pretty interesting race among the top 7-8.

 

[Quentin]

I think only one real indy will get in. And, Kinsey won't be it. Too cold, won't click with the older voters. Sideways is the likely LiT of 2004.

 

[Jan H]

Predictions:

Best Pic:

Closer
The Phantom of the Opera
The Aviator
Sideways
Million Dollar Baby

Best Director:

All of the above films' directors.

 

[Lew Crippen]

I have no idea if it will be nominated or not Quentin, but I’d suggest that it is likely to click with the older voters.

I can well remember my parents discussing the report with their friends—and my friends and I rushing to the library to read the report.

 

[Craig S]

Anyone counting Clint Eastwood out may be in for a surprise. His Million Dollar Baby, which only began production in August (!), has begun screening and the buzz puts it up there with Unforgiven & Mystic River in the Eastwood canon. It is now being touted as a major contender by both Poland & Wells. BP, Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay, and Acting nods for Hilary Swank, Morgan Freeman, and Clint himself are being predicted.

I hope The Aviator is as good as that Variety review, but there has been some less enthusiastic reaction from early screenings. I think in the end it will be good enough to make the final five (kind of like GoNY 2 years ago).

Saw the trailer for Spanglish tonight. As Thi pointed out, James L. Brooks has a pretty good track record with Oscar. The main thing that struck me about the trailer was that for the first time in his life Adam Sandler appears to be playing a pretty normal guy - and looks to be doing a pretty danm good job at it to boot. Spanglish is, I believe, the only major contender yet to be screened. We'll have to see what the reaction is when people actually begin seeing it.

Phantom Of The Opera could be huge. Saw the new trailer tonight and it got the full house really buzzing.

Here's my current guess for the Fab Five:

The Aviator
Closer
Million Dollar Baby
Phantom Of The Opera
Sideways

 

[ZacharyTait]

That big thud you heard on Wednesday morning was Alexander opening and seeing it's Oscar chances go bye-bye.

Right now, based on the raves I've seen, I would put Million-Dollar Baby in the final 5.

 

[Seth Paxton]

Quentin, I see Kinsey (without a viewing yet) as being able to play like The Hours did to get its nomination, at least in terms of appeal and respect.

Seeing the trailers for Closer and especially Phantom of the Opera helped grow my belief that both films will be in the hunt.

Sideways didn't blow me away, but it was strong. It does have a certain LiT or Station Agent vibe to it.

Seeing footage of Phantom really impressed me. It looks like it will be better than I would expect from Schuey. Of course it merely needs to translate to screen what made the musical a big hit. Well "merely" is no small task, but the crowd appeal of the musical has already been established, ie the understanding of which moments the crowd reacts to best so that the director/producer can really hit the timing on it.

To me that is an advantage that could help it.

Currently the Phantom tour is in Indy (among other cities) which also reminds you of its continued strong appeal.

 

[Quentin]

I'll be interested to see if you guys are right about Kinsey. The older members I've spoken to didn't think the film "got it right". Since my "unofficial polling" is sorely limited, I'll wait and see.

I may be too biased by my feelings about Sideways. Perhaps Eternal Sunshine will be the LiT of this year. Of course, I loved that film too.