The Official 2019 Oscars Nomination Announcements Discussions & Predictions Thread (1 Viewer)

[Jake Lipson]

Solo gets downplayed because it's just another Star Wars score but, Powell took a new John Williams theme, plus old ones, and crafted a fun and exciting score. He surprised me because I didn't think he was going to pull it off when they announced him as the composer.

As was a matter of some discussion in the Solo thread before nominations, the score for Solo was never going to be nominated. It was ineligible because someone at Disney didn't submit the paperwork to make it eligible on time.

A Simple Favor

Seriously? I had a blast at A Simple Favor, I thought it was extremely entertaining, but I wouldn't put it anywhere near Best Picture consideration. It was a fun afternoon at the movies. Black Panther was that, too, but with an exploration of timely themes and issues that brought it real gravitas. It had things to say inside its entertainment, and struck a nerve culturally because of its ideas, as well as the extraordinary and very specific cultural representation that it brought forward. A Simple Favor simply wasn't designed to do that. I can fully understand why the Academy chose to honor Black Panther and why A Simple Favor was not there, even though I think both films were very entertaining. Black Panther just has a lot more going on in it.

 

[Tino]

Two movies about the intersection of race and commerce, straddling the line between comedy and drama. One of was bold and inventive and contemporary and absurdist, and the other was cozy and derivative and nostalgic and told through the filter of a white protagonist. Green Book is the kind of movie the Academy loved thirty years ago. Cinema has moved forward, but the Academy hasn't.

Gotcha. I havent seen either yet so I can’t comment on your opinion.

 

[Chris Will]

As was a matter of some discussion in the Solo thread before nominations, the score for Solo was never going to be nominated. It was ineligible because someone at Disney didn't submit the paperwork to make it eligible on time.



Seriously? I had a blast at A Simple Favor, I thought it was extremely entertaining, but I wouldn't put it anywhere near Best Picture consideration. It was a fun afternoon at the movies. Black Panther was that, too, but with an exploration of timely themes and issues that brought it real gravitas. It had things to say inside its entertainment, and struck a nerve culturally because of its ideas, as well as the extraordinary and very specific cultural representation that it brought forward. A Simple Favor simply wasn't designed to do that. I can fully understand why the Academy chose to honor Black Panther and why A Simple Favor was not there, even though I think both films were very entertaining. Black Panther just has a lot more going on in it.

I’m completely aware that Solo was ineligible. That doesn’t change the fact that it was one of my 2 favorite scores of the year.

I’m sorry my opinion on Black Panther differs with yours but we will just have to agree to disagree. I thought it was a really good movie but not BP level IMO. Maybe “A Simple Favor”, and even “Widows”, is a stretch for BP but, I enjoyed both a good bit more than Black Panther. Probably doesn’t help that I’m getting burnt out on superhero movies as well.

 

[Jake Lipson]

Maybe “A Simple Favor”, and even “Widows”, is a stretch for BP but, I enjoyed both a good bit more than Black Panther.

Oh, that's fine, you're entitled to your opinion of course and I wasn't trying to imply otherwise. I just meant to make the point that A Simple Favor as a Best Picture nominee over Black Panther would be a stretch for the reasons I stated. Black Panther included serious themes and dramatic content that A Simple Favor did not, which would naturally make it more attractive to voters.

Widows would have been less of a stretch because of the cast and especially the director involved there (whose previous film won Best Picture) and it was more of a serious dramatic film.

 

[Winston T. Boogie]

So, here is how I would handicap the Best Picture category and this is not at all based upon what I think of the films, I have not seen them all, just based on guessing what Academy voters want to give awards to and what makes them feel good to say they have given an award to...

So, first let's just toss out all the films I believe have no shot and are just filling space in the category...

Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, Green Book, A Star is Born, and Vice are all out. I would say none of them have a shot to win this. While Rhapsody and Green Book have elements that the Academy likes there are other films that far overshadow them. They are essentially too "lightweight" to win.

So, the favorite to win, in my mind, is...

Roma -This film has everything that makes Academy voters tingle and slap themselves on the back for handing out awards. It is topical and timely and is the perfect salute to all they want to show that they stand for.

Next best chance...

The Favourite: I don't think this can beat Roma because it does not contain enough of a way for the Academy to make a political statement. It does feature three good roles for women in the year of Me Too but that likely won't trump (ha) what Roma gives them a chance to do. Both films are made by master filmmakers so they do represent the greatest achievements in filmmaking of the bunch. If they give the award to this picture it would only be because it is great filmmaking...which is not something that seems to be most interesting/important to the Academy.

And the long shot but still could pull it off...

BlacKkKlansman - Again, a master filmmaker in Lee that provides the Academy a chance to make a political statement with their choice and could win if Roma and The Favourite somehow cancel each other out or they do the thing where they want to spread the love around. Lee could get Best Director if he fails to win Best Picture for this.

So, those films, to me anyway, are the only ones with any chance to win UNLESS the Academy goes in some radically different surprising direction. They could just say "Hey, superheroes are our bread and butter so let's give it to Black Panther!" but I think they take themselves too seriously to do that.

 

[Patrick Sun]

5 years from now, most of these films won't be remembered. I felt 2018 was a soft year for great films. I do need to watch Roma and The Favourite, though.

 

[Jeff Adkins]

I would love to know how what the overlap is between Driving Miss Daisy in 1989 and The Green Book in 2018. I would suspect a staggering number of the nominations came from the exact same Academy voters.

I don't think so. The Academy has expanded the number of members by 25% over the last three years. In 1989, the Academy demographics skewed older, so I would imagine that a good number of them from 30 years ago are no longer with us.

 

[Tino]

I thought it was a really good movie but not BP level

I agree.

 

[Tino]

Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, Green Book, A Star is Born, and Vice are all out. I would say none of them have a shot to win this. While Rhapsody and Green Book have elements that the Academy likes there are other films that far overshadow them. They are essentially too "lightweight" to win.

I would say you’re wrong about all of these films chances except Black Panther and Vice. Also out of the running imo is Roma( will win best foreign language film) and BlacKKlansman.

 

[Jeff Adkins]

GoldDerby has the odds currently at:

Roma 7/1
A Star Is Born 7/1
Green Book 15/2
The Favourite 17/2
BlacKkKlansman 17/2
Black Panther 9/1
Vice 21/2
Bohemian Rhapsody 13/1

 

[Chris Will]

Like Tino, I think Roma gets the best foreign win but something else grabs BP.

Has a foreign language film ever won BP? I don’t think it has so, it’s got an uphill battle with history.

 

[Lord Dalek]

Like Tino, I think Roma gets the best foreign win but something else grabs BP.

Has a foreign language film ever won BP? I don’t think it has so, it’s got an uphill battle with history.

Never. The closest any film got was Crouching Tiger in 2001.

 

[Jake Lipson]

New additional allegations against Bryan Singer this morning involving sex with minors should sink Bohemian Rhapsody. Not that I thought it had a chance of winning anyway, but this will make it impossible for the Academy to award that film amidst the Me Too movement. https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/03/bryan-singers-accusers-speak-out/580462/. The only question now is if this stops the film from winning any awards, or if they would feel comfortable awarding it other honors and not Best Picture.

 

[Josh Steinberg]

Has a foreign language film ever won BP? I don’t think it has so, it’s got an uphill battle with history.

There hasn't been a winner that's been entirely in a non-English language, but there have been several winners (like "Dances with Wolves") where a substantial portion of the film is not in English.

 

[dpippel]

IIRC, there are a couple of lines of English dialog in Roma.

 

[Tino]

IIRC, there are a couple of lines of English dialog in Roma.

Yeah one or two when they’re shooting guns.

 

[JQuintana]

New additional allegations against Bryan Singer this morning involving sex with minors should sink Bohemian Rhapsody. Not that I thought it had a chance of winning anyway, but this will make it impossible for the Academy to award that film amidst the Me Too movement. https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/03/bryan-singers-accusers-speak-out/580462/. The only question now is if this stops the film from winning any awards, or if they would feel comfortable awarding it other honors and not Best Picture.

But he was fired from the movie correct? So why should the folks who finished creating it be punished?

 

[Jake Lipson]

But he was fired from the movie correct? So why should the folks who finished creating it be punished?

He was fired from the movie with two weeks of shooting left to go. Because he shot the majority of it, his name is still on it as director. I'm not making a value judgment on the film, which I have no interest in. But I don't see how the Academy can justify awarding a film Best Picture that is any way connected with Singer in the current climate, particularly after that article, which is just disgusting.

 

[JQuintana]

He was fired from the movie with two weeks of shooting left to go. Because he shot the majority of it, his name is still on it as director. I'm not making a value judgment on the film, which I have no interest in. But I don't see how the Academy can justify awarding a film Best Picture that is any way connected with Singer in the current climate, particularly after that article, which is just disgusting.

Especially if proven true in court. Not court of public opinion.

 

[Jake Lipson]

Especially if proven true in court. Not court of public opinion.

Are you kidding? He doesn't have to be convicted in court in order for it to affect the Oscars. The perception of him, whether true or not, will be in voters' minds while they're casting their ballots. We've been talking on the previous pages about whether or not Peter Farrelly showing his penis on movie sets or an insensative tweet from the writer about 9/11 will affect Green Book. It's all about the perception of the voters, and that article is far more damming than anything that has been leveled against Green Book. So the existence of these allegations is definitely a factor.