Based on the past gaming history the first company out of the gate is always the first to die out. Sega has been a prime example of that with Saturn and the DC. So this means that Sony is at a disadvantage...
That's pretty sloppy reasoning.
Even if we assumed that the "the first company out of the gate is always the first to die out" thing was true, it doesn't necessarily mean the first causes the second. Also, there's not much of a sample size - just four or five generations of gaming consoles.
Besides, it's patently untrue. The Atari VCS/2600 outlived Intellivision to an insane degree, although I suppose it could be argued that Magnavox's Odyssey came out first. I'm pretty sure ColecoVision outlasted the Atari 5200; if not it's only because Coleco, in a suicidal fit that's almost Tramiel-esque, put their money on the Adam. Even if you dismiss the Golden Age as not relevent, the NES outlived the Sega Master System and Atari 7800; Genesis outlived the TurboGrafx-16, if not the SNES; the Game Boy and its descendants survived challenges from Atari, Sega, NEC, and Tiger. What seemed to kill Sega wasn't necessarily first, but releasing systems before the market was ready for a new one (see also Atari Jaguar and and 3D0).