Oscar Watch 2005 - pre-awards discussion (1 Viewer)

[Jose Martinez]

I'm not sure if this goes against forum rules (please delete if it is) and I apologise if it does and don't mean to offend anyone but I can't recall an Oscar season with this many liberal films in contention.

 

[Vickie_M]

If being tolerant and sympathetic toward consenting adults in love, being against corruption and witch hunts, and not giving a second thought about a writer doing his job (who happens to be gay) is "liberal" then I'd really REALLY hate to be anything else. Liberal is more normal and decent than the opposite, *if* the opposite means being hateful and intolerant toward consenting adults in love, being all for corruption and witch hunts, and judging a man strictly on the basis of his sexual orientation (no matter how good a writer he is).

 

[Ray Chuang]

Vickie_M,

I think Brokeback Mountain has a very good chance of winning Best Picture because technically, the movie is flat-out superb (Heath Ledger's awesome acting performance, Ang Lee's excellent direction and that flat-out GREAT cinematography ). Mind you, you have to wonder will Ledger lose to Philip Seymour Hoffman's portrayal of Truman Capote in Capote, though.

 

[Seth Paxton]

I have yet to see Capote, but based on clips and buzz at least I would be really surprised if PSHoffman lost at this point. Ledger was strong though. It was nice to see him have a chance to flex the acting muscles.


Brokeback is going to win it all IMO because of what Ray mentioned - GREAT cinematography, strong score, great direction, strong editing. The script and acting aren't always key for winning Best Pix, espcially acting. Often those make for good "also ran" wins. I haven't seen New World yet, but outside of that I can't think of any films with clearly better cinematography.


I'm with Vickie about the liberal thing. Most "arthouse" films which inevitably end up in award contention are going to showcase the ideals of the "liberal" world of filmmakers and artists. I don't see anything special about this year.

Gay cowboys, gay hobbits, whatever.

 

[Quentin]

I think THE NEW WORLD is the only film this year with better cinematography than BBM.

But, I think the best edited film of the year is CONSTANT GARDENER, and I hope it wins.

BBM also has a great score.

 

[Adam_S]

Just saw Brokeback tonight and if it wins, it wins on merit, not liberal kowtowing to issues. I was blown away.

 

[Vickie_M]

I agree with you Adam, Seth and Ray. If Brokeback wins, it'll be on merit, and "liberal" has nothing to do with it.

I saw The New World and I'm puzzled as to why it's not being talked up regarding Oscars. Not here, but anywhere. Perhaps if it had opened sooner? I just don't know. It's such a beautiful film. I agree that the Cinematography is breathtaking, and Kilcher, I feel, deserves a nomination. If Keisha Castle-Hughes can do it, she could. But Keisha was being talked up early in awards season, so while she was a surprise to the general public, her nomination wasn't so much of a surprise to oscarwatchers. A shock that it actually happened, maybe, but not an out of the blue surprise. Kilcher and everything associated with The New World has been almost completely ignored. Sigh.

The Producers Guild announces their winners tonight. My guess is that Brokeback Mountain will win Feature and Wallace & Gromit will win Animated. I'll update the Guild thread as soon as I hear.

 

[teapot2001]

I can't believe you chose to see The Producers over that at Arclight.

I didn't think the cinematography was that great in Brokeback Mountain, but then I did see it the day after I saw The New World. I have a feeling BM will win that award, though.

Everybody has been talking about Heath Ledger's non-verbal acting, but I thought Kilcher was more impressive.

I have no idea why TNW has been ignored. I thought the AFI would have had it as one of the year's best movies. ASC didn't even have it as one of the best photographed movies.

~T

 

[Adam_S]

New World is ignored because it ran for two weeks in LA and NYC, didn't get a critical powerhouse backing, and is a 'complex Malick film that is slow' and there are two cuts, the version on the academy screener dvds that ran for two weeks, and the version that came out nationally. It was available in theatres for half of the time between the end of the december and Monday that oscar nomination ballots were out and about and open. On the other hand, New World was selling out at Century City 15 and at the Grove this weekend, so people were seeing it and it may be on their minds.

In other words the press has absolutely no idea, but they can't imagine the academy to be intelligent enough to like the movie enough to nominate it based on two weeks in theatres and screeners. That and the press hasn't created buzz for the film the way they did for Brokeback Mountain and the way some tried to destroy/bury Munich.

I would not be surprised for the directors coterie to nominate Malick, in fact I expect it.

I think New World would be a very logical, and relatively non-shocking choice for BP nomination, on the other hand, a truly surprise nomination would be for a popular film that everyone apparently liked such as Chronicles of Narnia, but it stars kids so it'll never be nominated.

With the pick up in buzz New World has received with this new cut, it could possibly challenge Brokeback to actually win the title if it were to score a nomination, I don't think Good Night and Good Luck can do it and none of the other frontrunners except Munich seem like an oscar winner, and Munich has been turned into a polarizing force.

 

[Arman]

Every year I always expect big surprises from the Oscars (every year I end up being disappointed but still I continue to get excited big time and never fails to watch it and participate in forum/discussions like this). Will this year be any different? Well it feels like that we are now all living in a new world! Who would believe that a film like Brokeback Mountain will be the clear frontrunner to win and that the universally & critically-acclaimed Munich (directed by the king of Hollywood who invented BLOCKBUSTER) might not be even nominated? In the perfect old Academy world, The New World should be shutout of any nominations. Oh come on, even the Golden Globes completely ignored it.

If there's one actor who deserves to win the best actor other than Hoffman, Ledger and Phoenix - it should be Romain Duris for The Beat That My Heart Skipped. (Without Duris) My money is for Hoffman to win against Ledger and Phoenix but my mind and heart is for Ledger. But if a shocking nomination for Duris happens (longshot but who knows? Duris could take the last slot against Crowe with Strathairn a lock to take the 4th slot), I'd say Duris will win ala Brody. But then if the magnificent performance (in a role not so much unlike Hoffman's and Ledger's) by Gael Garcia Bernal in Bad Education was snubbed last year, why should I be dreaming Duris will have a chance this year?

 

[Vickie_M]

I was right! The Producers Guild went for Brokeback Mountain and Wallace & Gromit.

Wheee!

 

[Adam_S]

I can't see Ledger losing, Hoffman is due and his performance is outstanding, but Ledger to me delivered the performance of the year.

I rewatched Sin City tonight, damn shame Mickey Rourke isn't remembered for this role, it's the highlight of the film and joyous fun, and I'd say it's damn good acting too.

The actress and supporting categories to me are the really interesting ones. I don't see Judy Dench being nominated because so few people seem to have seen Mrs. Henderson Presents, it's definitely award worthy, but I would not be surprised if she doesn't make the cut. I think that Kilcher probably will get a nomination, but I don't know about Zhang Ziyi. I wish Toni Collette and Drew Barrymore got the attention they deserved from In Her Shoes. And it's hard to believe that Shirley MacLaine's wonderful performance in that film has faded from memory. I think there will be a lot of surprises in these categories and they feel pretty wide open (though Reese Witherspoon is every bit as strong a lock to win as Julia Roberts was for Brockavich).

Adam

 

[Patrick Sun]

It was Camerona Diaz in "In Her Shoes" (not her Angel buddy, Drew).

 

[Kevin Grey]

I don't see either of these as particularly surprising. Spielberg has a long history of being snubbed by the Academy to various extents and Brokeback's subject matter and talent surely made it a possible contender ever since it went before the lenses.

 

[teapot2001]

I don't see what's suprising about Brokeback Mountain being the frontrunner and I don't even see why it's receiving all the attention it is getting because of its subject matter.

I think Hoffman is guaranteed to win best actor. I thought he gave the best performance of all actors/actresses, and he seems to be admired by his peers.

I thought it was surprising the Academy would nominate a movie like The Thin Red Line for best pic, so there's still a chance that The New World could get it.

~T

 

[Adam_S]

Yeah I can't remember actors accurately after three months apparently, especially if I'm posting late at night. I only just figured out that Frank Langella played Bill Paley and not Don Hollenbeck, which blew my mind because I thought all the supporting actor praise was going to the Don Hollenbeck role (Ray Wise).

Spielberg at the oscars, major snubs in bold:
1975 - no BD nom for Jaws; no BP award
1977 - BD/BP noms for CE3K; neither award
1980 - BD/BP noms for Raiders of the lost Ark; neither award
1982 - BD/BP noms for ET; neither award
1985 - no BD nom for Color Purple, 11 total nominations, no awards
1987 - no BD/BP noms for masterpiece Empire of the Sun

six years before attempting another awards film

1993 - BD/BP awards for Schindler's List
1997 - no BD/BP noms for Amistad
1998 - BD award for Saving Private Ryan, no BP award
2001 - no BD/BP noms for AI, after virtually no awards campaign

five years before attempting another awards film

i think the AI bit is telling, it recieved basically the same critical/audience reception (polarizing) and box office gross as Moulin Rouge, both released about the same time of the year and Moulin Rouge was given a real awards push and secured an oscar nom, Dreamworks didn't even seem to try for A.I.

Likewise the campaign for Munich has seemed off course ever since Spielberg was placed in the crosshairs by conservative journalists for being too grey/liberal and by liberal journalists for being too grey/conservative.

After all, those poor journalists had to wait until December to see the movie and they had to suffer an embargo and they couldn't each have a one on one interview with Spielberg because TIME had an exclusive, oh woe is the poor shat-upon journalists.

(straw men make such delightful and easy targets, eh?)

 

[Robert Crawford]

I have to agree with you about Hoffman's performance and that his peers will probably reward him for it, along with his previous performances in so many films.





Crawdaddy

 

[Quentin]

Yeah...Hoffman has "earned" it, and will likely win SAG and Oscar awards. And, deservedly so. Actors love him and love to work with him.

Ledger gets to ride the 'rebirth' of his career. (I don't see it as a rebirth or comeback...the guy has only been around for a few years and has always been right there as far as I could tell)

 

[Brian W.]

I have this weird feeling "New World" could be a surprise Best Picture nominee this year. I know 4/5 of the BP slots are nailed down, because, if I recall my "formula" from previous years, a quadruple PGA-DGA-WGA-SAG Ensemble nom always, and I mean ALWAYS, equals a Best Picture Oscar nom. And four films have those four guild noms this year:

Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash
Goodnight and Good Luck

And this is what most Oscar-watchers are predicting, too. But both Sijmen's Oscar Experiment and USA Today's Oscar Oracle (both amazingly accurate in past years) are predicting "Walk the Line" in the fifth slot.

 

[Adam_S]

Almost Famous had all four, I think, and wasn't nominated, but that may be my misremembering, it may have only had three.