Seth Paxton
Senior HTF Member
- Joined
- Nov 5, 1998
- Messages
- 7,585
Yeah, it was a mistake in the end BUT, I was taking the wife and "long, dull artfilm" isn't typically up her alley. She bailed on Yi Yi for example and waited in the lobby.
Producers also wasn't as good as I hoped. And I didn't realize NW was in 70mm there, I was working the plan on the fly and missed that. If I had a do-over I'd try to talk her into it.
I did get to see all the costumes on display (also for the Producers and something else).
Anyway, while it was a big bust last year, here are the "scores" so far this year. For perspective, adjusted for the M$B winning last year the final totals were:
Aviator 21.18
Million$Baby 15.93
Sideways 15.16
Neverland 12.84
Ray 8.66
So M$B was still 2nd but well behind Aviator. Adding in M$B didn't affect the other 11 years I have included in the formula, for what that's worth.
With Guild winners and Oscar noms still to be figured in (edit - PGA win included)
13.71 Brokeback
9.26 Good Night, and Good Luck
6.25 Crash
5.48 Walk the Line
5.45 Capote
4.70 Constant Gardener
3.75 Munich
3.12 Match Point
3.06 Cinderella Man
2.67 Syriana
2.40 History of Violence
2.40 Squid and the Whale
2.12 Mrs. Henderson Presents
GNaGL is having a great awards season so far and seems very likely to get a Best Pix nom at this point. Crash has proven strong and is a bit of a surprise coming "weakly" from the summer (ie, not a huge BO hit). And 3 other early films have hung tough as well with Gardener on the cusp and Cind. Man and Violence sticking in the outsider mix.
I guess my question would be is Capote as a total film enough to fight off Munich, and did Munich release too late?
Brokeback, GNaGL and Walk the Line seem like nomination shoe-ins. The last 2 spots are iffy, though Crash is a strong film with a great cast and script, and that usually means plenty of votes.
Producers also wasn't as good as I hoped. And I didn't realize NW was in 70mm there, I was working the plan on the fly and missed that. If I had a do-over I'd try to talk her into it.
I did get to see all the costumes on display (also for the Producers and something else).
Anyway, while it was a big bust last year, here are the "scores" so far this year. For perspective, adjusted for the M$B winning last year the final totals were:
Aviator 21.18
Million$Baby 15.93
Sideways 15.16
Neverland 12.84
Ray 8.66
So M$B was still 2nd but well behind Aviator. Adding in M$B didn't affect the other 11 years I have included in the formula, for what that's worth.
With Guild winners and Oscar noms still to be figured in (edit - PGA win included)
13.71 Brokeback
9.26 Good Night, and Good Luck
6.25 Crash
5.48 Walk the Line
5.45 Capote
4.70 Constant Gardener
3.75 Munich
3.12 Match Point
3.06 Cinderella Man
2.67 Syriana
2.40 History of Violence
2.40 Squid and the Whale
2.12 Mrs. Henderson Presents
GNaGL is having a great awards season so far and seems very likely to get a Best Pix nom at this point. Crash has proven strong and is a bit of a surprise coming "weakly" from the summer (ie, not a huge BO hit). And 3 other early films have hung tough as well with Gardener on the cusp and Cind. Man and Violence sticking in the outsider mix.
I guess my question would be is Capote as a total film enough to fight off Munich, and did Munich release too late?
Brokeback, GNaGL and Walk the Line seem like nomination shoe-ins. The last 2 spots are iffy, though Crash is a strong film with a great cast and script, and that usually means plenty of votes.