2020 At The Boxoffice (1 Viewer)

[Malcolm R]

Interesting, and I mostly agree.

Don't view "In the Heights" as a "safe bet", though. Not sure Lin-Manuel is quite as much of a "household name" as the author believes, and musicals tend to be iffy prospects...

Agree. I don't think he carries any special cachet to boost the box office. He certainly didn't seem to help Mary Poppins Returns in any way.

 

[Jake Lipson]

He certainly didn't seem to help Mary Poppins Returns in any way.

Lin-Manuel Miranda wasn't the creator of Mary Poppins Returns. He was just an actor for hire in that. There's a substantial difference between that and In the Heights and Hamilton.

 

[Tino]

I dunno. Something just bugs me about him. And I think “ In The Heights” looks like a disaster. Not a fan.

 

[Jake Lipson]

Something just bugs me about him.

Well, now you're getting into personal preferences. Something just bug me about 1917 -- I'm not going to be able to stand to watch it because it seems like it's got too many sudden loud noises that will make me uncomfortable -- but I don't doubt that it's going to be a success and certainly a major contender for the Oscars.

In the Heights looks like a movie version of that show should look like. It's got Lin-Manuel Miranda's name, as well as John M. Chu and is being promoted as "from the director of Crazy Rich Asians." It also looks like it was budgeted responsibly. I don't have a problem believing it will be a hit. Is it going to be the biggest movie of the summer? No. But that doesn't mean it won't work.

 

[Josh Steinberg]

I have nothing against Miranda, but Broadway doesn’t always scale up, especially not at the level that most theatrical releases require to be worthwhile for studios in 2020 and beyond.

Even “Hamilton,” as a smash Broadway hit, probably doesn’t do the kind of business that a theatrical tentpole requires.

I don’t anticipate this film being a flop but I don’t expect it to have gigantic crossover appeal either. But I’ll be happy to eat my words if I’m wrong. I’d like it to do well.

 

[Jake Lipson]

Obviously, it all depends on the price. I'm not sure what the budget was for In the Heights, but I doubt it was enormously expensive.

I don't think it is being viewed as a tentpole. Wonder Woman 1984 is Warner's big tentpole for June. In the Heights is being used as counterprogramming for the opening weekend of the Top Gun sequel, and that seems to be well-positioned because they will largely appeal to different audiences. Mamma Mia! did very well opposite the opening of The Dark Knight by positioning itself as an alternative for mostly female audiences,. The same general idea should apply here as well as long as the movie is good.

 

[Josh Steinberg]

The big difference with that scenario being that the entertainment world has changed dramatically since The Dark Knight opened in 2008. In The Heights could work as counterprogramming, or it could just as easily wind up as a “Why should I spend $15 to see this? It’ll be streaming in three months” selection. It could be the next Crazy Rich Asians (diverse case appealing to underserved markets, familiar enough to attract wide appeal but different enough to feel fresh, based on known but not overwhelmingly overexposed material), or it could be the next Doctor Sleep (“sure thing” based on pedigree of talent and popular source material, in a genre that still sells, but couldn’t answer question of “Why should I go out and pay to see it today when it’ll come to my home for free tomorrow?”)

So much is changing so quickly, I think it’s going to be harder than usual to guess what could happen.

 

[Tino]

Well, now you're getting into personal preferences. Something just bug me about 1917 -- I'm not going to be able to stand to watch it because it seems like it's got too many sudden loud noises that will make me uncomfortable -- but I don't doubt that it's going to be a success and certainly a major contender for the Oscars.

In the Heights looks like a movie version of that show should look like. It's got Lin-Manuel Miranda's name, as well as John M. Chu and is being promoted as "from the director of Crazy Rich Asians." It also looks like it was budgeted responsibly. I don't have a problem believing it will be a hit. Is it going to be the biggest movie of the summer? No. But that doesn't mean it won't work.

I certainly don’t want the film to fail. I love musicals and hope it’s better than the trailer looks to me.

I don’t think I liked the trailers for LaLa Land or The Greatest Showman either. And I would up loving both those films.

 

[Edwin-S]

Wow. The guy completely overlooks "Soul" with only a passing mention of it as a Summer release.

 

[Jake Lipson]

The big difference with that scenario being that the entertainment world has changed dramatically since The Dark Knight opened in 2008.

Yes, but the principle is still the same. In the Heights is being designed as counterprogramming to a big action blockbuster. Of course, any number of factors could contribute to its success or lack thereof, as is the case with every movie. But studios make bets all the time on every movie, because no one knows how anything will be received until it opens. If you're going to make a bet, In the Heights is one I would take without hesitation.

Although I'm not directing this particular comment at you specifically, I'm also really annoyed that people continually question if the musical is dead. Every other genre can sustain a big-budget bomb every now and then and no one questions whether the genre as a whole should continue. Dark Phoenix bombing didn't put a stop to all comic book movies. Doctor Sleep underperforming doesn't mean we won't see more horror movies. But for some reason, people in Hollywood seem to make every musical a litmus test for the entire future of the genre. Cats bombing has generated a lot of talk about people not being interested in musicals anymore, when in fact people just weren't interested in that specific one. There have been enough musical successes in the past few years that the weight of the entire genre should not be placed on the back of every single film that comes out.

Wow. The guy completely overlooks "Soul" with only a passing mention of it as a Summer release.

I think that's largely because we don't know much about it. So far, there's only been that brief trailer in front of Frozen II. I suspect it will get a lot more coverage as the release date draws closer and they begin marketing it more aggressively. Pixar has Onward first in March, so their biggest priority right now is to get that one launched. I think the media will focus more on Soul in due time.

The article mentions that launching Onward in March is a risk for Pixar because they've never put a movie there before, but that's grasping at straws. Although they are technically correct that Pixar has never gone in March before, Disney has had a lot of success in March with other divisions, so that's obviously not going to prevent people from coming out. Zootopia (a Walt Disney Animation Studios title) grossed a billion dollars with a March release, and Disney live-action has also used March for Beauty and the Beast and Cinderella. Plus, Marvel put Captain Marvel out last March. Like...really, people? Why are we worried about the release date?

I do think that it's interesting that Onward and Soul are so close together, because Pixar has never had two films that close together on the schedule before. But I don't think being in March will be a problem for Onward at all.

 

[Edwin-S]

I do think that it's interesting that Onward and Soul are so close together, because Pixar has never had two films that close together on the schedule before. But I don't think being in March will be a problem for Onward at all.

I think the Pixar having two movies out in the same year is more interesting than the March release date. I think that is a first for them. Isn't it?

 

[Jake Lipson]

I think the Pixar having two movies out in the same year is more interesting than the March release date. I think that is a first for them. Isn't it?

No, it's happened twice before, but they were much more separated on the calendar. In 2015, Inside Out (June) and The Good Dinosaur (November), and in 2017, Cars 3 (June) and Coco (November.)

March for Onward to June for Soul is a much more abbreviated timetable than either of those, especially considering that Disney is usually able to promote the new Pixar film as a major event. How much of an event is Soul going to be if we've just had one three months prior?

To be fair, I also said that having Aladdin, Toy Story 4 and The Lion King in a three-month period last year was bonkers and that they would eat into each other's gross potential. They all ended up hitting a billion dollars each, even though two of the three were complete garbage, so that worked out better than I thought it would. Soul will be able to do well, but it will have to rely on itself being distinctive, rather than being the only Pixar movie in radius of its release date.

 

[Tino]

1917 going even higher.

Deadline.

It’s another win for original movies, and this time around with a fresh face cast as Amblin/New Republic/Universal’s 1917 jumps to a $37.2M wide opening, putting its running total at $39.9M since its limited Christmas day debut. Sure, that Golden Globe win for Best Drama Picture has something to do with the halo here, but that’s why prestige movies are released during awards time, so that they can ride that wave. Also, keep in mind that this movie was solid on tracking before the Globes with at least a $20M start (bumped up to $25M on Monday). 1917 is also another testament to British war films without any major stars working at the box office, but in the hands of great filmmakers. Christopher Nolan was the marquee draw on Dunkirk with the rest of the film’s dazzle doing the rest of the lifting, and 1917 will no doubt go to greater heights thanks to the talent of Skyfall and Spectre filmmaker Sam Mendes, plus the unique suspense fueled by Oscar-winning DP Roger Deakins in making a battleground film that’s one continuous take. Wide polled-CinemaScore was A- for 1917 with an updated 4 1/2 stars on PostTrak and a 69% definite recommend. 1917 played best in West, Mid and South-West but was solid throughout.

 

[Tino]

Top 20

1 (17) 1917 Universal $36,500,000 +5,809% 3,434 +3,423 $10,629 $39,221,279 3
2 (1) Star Wars: The Rise o… Walt Disney $15,059,000 -56% 4,279 -127 $3,519 $478,169,690 4
3 (2) Jumanji: The Next Level Sony Pict… $14,000,000 -47% 3,904 -230 $3,586 $257,124,981 5
4 (28) Just Mercy Warner Bros. $10,000,000 +12,952% 2,375 +2,371 $4,211 $10,435,988 3
5 N Like a Boss Paramount… $10,000,000 3,078 $3,249 $10,000,000 1
6 (3) Little Women Sony Pict… $7,650,000 -44% 3,216 -92 $2,379 $74,031,009 3
7 N Underwater 20th Cent… $7,003,000 2,791 $2,509 $7,003,000 1
8 (4) Frozen II Walt Disney $5,761,000 -51% 2,655 -520 $2,170 $459,384,042 8
9 (7) Knives Out Lionsgate $5,725,000 -36% 2,060 -82 $2,779 $139,621,744 7
10 (6) Spies in Disguise 20th Cent… $5,108,000 -51% 2,671 -831 $1,912 $54,616,429 3
- (5) The Grudge Sony Pict… $3,500,000 -69% 2,642 n/c $1,325 $17,906,715 2
11 (8) Uncut Gems A24 $3,500,000 -54% 2,081 -605 $1,682 $43,466,672 5
- (9) Bombshell Lionsgate $1,500,000 -63% 1,289 -432 $1,164 $27,948,223 5
- (15) Parasite Neon $966,000 +15% 345 +123 $2,800 $25,368,732 14
- (11) Ford v. Ferrari 20th Cent… $769,000 -55% 567 -163 $1,356 $111,424,605 9
- (10) Cats Universal $520,000 -80% 818 -2,084 $636 $26,359,425 4
- (13) A Beautiful Day in th… Sony Pict… $500,000 -59% 519 -337 $963 $59,908,011 8
- (14) Queen & Slim Universal $385,000 -67% 442 -183 $871 $43,491,305 7
- (19) Jojo Rabbit Fox Searc… $209,000 -39% 125 -84 $1,672 $21,981,387 13
- (20) A Hidden Life Fox Searc… $93,000 -64% 119 -32 $782 $1,500,417 5
- (23) Midway Lionsgate $90,000 -49% 178 -19 $506 $56,712,945 10

 

[Tino]

Terrific opening for 1917. Almost double it’s original projections. Should have no problem making over $100 million domestic. Probably much more with it’s inevitable Oscar wins.

Looks like a final domestic total of about $520 million for TROS.

Knives Out still holding strong. Looks like a $150 million domestic total.

 

[Jake Lipson]

Terrific opening for 1917. Almost double it’s original projections. Should have no problem making over $100 million domestic. Probably much more with it’s inevitable Oscar wins.

Every once in a while there is a film that I believe is probably really good which I just can't see on account of my startle reflex with sudden loud noises, as I just don't want to be physically uncomfortable while watching the movie. The Hurt Locker and Us fell into this category, and based on what I've heard, I think 1917 does as well. However, even so, I am really glad for its success. I hope Universal and other studios take note of it the next time a smart director comes in with a pitch for adult audiences that isn't based on a pre-existing IP.

Looks like a final domestic total of about $520 million for TROS.

If this pans out, it will be $100 million shy of The Last Jedi and the first time for any Star Wars trilogy that the third chapter did not outgross the second. With both the originals and prequels, the first was the biggest, the second one dipped a bit and the third ended up between the two previous ones.

Knives Out still holding strong. Looks like a $150 million domestic total.

This will make it the second-highest-grossing completely original film from 2019, behind Us, and ahead of Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. I always expected this one would do well, but that's amazing.

 

[Tino]

I just can't see on account of my startle reflex with sudden loud noises, as I just don't want to be physically uncomfortable while watching the movie. The Hurt Locker and Us fell into this category, and based on what I've heard, I think 1917 does as well

I’m seeing this again tomorrow night and I will play close attention for scenes like that Jake. I’ll let you know.

 

[Jake Lipson]

I’m seeing this again tomorrow night and I will play close attention for scenes like that Jake. I’ll let you know.

Thanks.

 

[Tino]

Box office guru analysis.


THIS WEEKEND Universal capitalized on the right heat at the right time with its war film 1917which expanded nationwide right after winning double Golden Globes for Best Picture - Drama and Best Director and hit number one with an estimated $36.5M. January films don't often break $30M so this was a terrific result. The average was a stellar $10,629 from 3,434 locations.

Reviews have been strong, awards buzz is hot, and word of mouth has been very positive too. Plus Oscar nominations will be announced on Monday morning and many nods are expected for 1917, with Best Picture being likely. All of this will lead to a prolonged run at the box office for the next few weeks on its way well past the $100M mark.

Following its three-week reign atop the box office, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker dropped down to second and took in an estimated $15.1M. The total after 24 days is $478.2M which is huge, but is also down 41% from The Force Awakens and down 17% compared to The Last Jedi after the same amount of time. Given the different holiday calendars, this 24-day total includes the full holiday season runs and make for a fair comparison.

A domestic final in the $520M range seems likely. Overseas markets have contributed $511.4M to date for a new global tally of $989.6M. Later this week, Episode IX will become the seventh 2019 release from Disney to break $1 billion - a new industry record.

Jumanji: The Next Level spent its fifth weekend in the top three and grossed an estimated $14M falling 47%. The Sony blockbuster sequel has collected $257.1M thus far and is shooting for that $300M mark.

The comedy Like A Boss delivered a respectable debut with an estimated $10M from 3,078 locations for a $3,249 average. Reviews for the R-rated film were quite negative and Paramount reached an audience that was 60% female and 65% over 25.

The criminal injustice drama Just Mercy expanded nationwide after two weeks of limited play and generated moderately good numbers with an estimated $10M weekend. Averaging a good $4,211 from 2,375 locations, the PG-13 film starring Michael B. Jordan and Jamie Foxx earned strong reviews and has generated electric word-of-mouth with its A+ grade from CinemaScore. Warner Bros. hopes that solid buzz will help it remain popular next weekend over the long MLK holiday frame.

Sony's Little Women dropped 44% to an estimated $7.7M lifting the cume to $74M so far. It is counting on some Oscar nominations on Monday, possibly Best Picture, to keep it going over the weeks ahead.

The new thriller Underwater did not energize too many moviegoers opening to an estimated $7M from 2,791 locations for a mild $2,509 average. Fox's PG-13 film starring Kristen Stewart earned mixed reviews.

November holdover Frozen II grabbed an estimated $5.8M, down 51%, for a robust $459.4M domestic, a massive $912M international, and $1.37 billion worldwide and counting.

Mystery hit Knives Out held up well again dipping 36% to an estimated $5.7M giving Lionsgate a solid $139.6M to date. An Oscar nod would help keep things going a little longer. Toon Spies in Disguise rounded out the top ten with an estimated $5.1M, down 51%, for $54.6M overall.

www.boxofficeguru.com

 

[Jake Lipson]

I just went back and looked at some past grosses and realized that if Rise of Skywalker closes at $520 million, it would also fail to outgross Rogue One, which ended its run with $532 million domestic I don't mean to imply that Rise of Skywalker is not a success, because it obviously is, but I also think the finale of the main saga ending its run underneath one of the spinoffs which didn't have many familiar characters in it is a surprise.