2020 At The Boxoffice (1 Viewer)

[jcroy]

At this point I have to wonder if there's something else bigger at play with Comcast/Universal.

For example, is Comcast finding a way to push AMC off the cliff and into bankruptcy ? If so, can Comcast just buy up the carcass of AMC (less liabilities) on the cheap in bankruptcy proceedings?

 

[Jake Lipson]

Cineworld (which owns Regal) has issued a statement now, and they won't allow breaking of the windowing either.

Cineworld’s policy with respect to the window is clear, well known in the industry and is part of our commercial deal with our movie suppliers. We invest heavily in our cinemas across the globe and this allows the movie studios to provide customers all around the world to watch the movies in the best experience. There is no argument that the big screen is the best way to watch a movie.

Universal unilaterally chose to break our understanding and did so at the height of the Covid-19 crisis when our business is closed, more than 35,000 employees are at home and when we do not yet have a clear date for the reopening of our cinemas.

Universal’s move is completely inappropriate and certainly has nothing to do with good faith business practice, partnership and transparency.

Mooky Greidinger, Cineworld’s CEO approached Brian Roberts, the Chairman of Comcast, back in 19th of March (after Universal announced that Trolls 2 would be released in breach of the window) and told him among other things that:

“Nice words from your team are worthless if we cannot trust you as a partner. The message that the media has portrayed is: “Hollywood breaks the window” – well, this is not true! All our partners called us in timely manner and told us that in the current situation they want to shorten window for movies that were already released as cinemas are closing, most importantly, they all reassured us that there will be no change to their window policy once the cinema business returned. Unfortunately I missed similar message in Universal’s announcement… not only did Universal provide no commitment for the future window – but Universal was the only studio that tried to take advantage of the current crisis and provide a ‘day-and-date’ release of a movie that was not yet released”.

Cineworld’s roots go back 90 years in the industry and it was always open to showing any movie as long as the rules were kept and not changed by one sided moves. Today we make it clear again that we will not be showing movies that fail to respect the windows as it does not make any economic sense for us.

We have full confidence in the industry’s current business model. No one should forget that the theatrical side of this industry generated an all-time record income of $42 billion last year and the movie distributors’ share of this was about $20 billion.

Regal Owner Cineworld Chimes In On ‘Trolls World Tour’ Controversy: “We Will Not Be Showing Movies That Fail To Respect The Windows”

EXCLUSIVE: Following yesterday’s flurry of dramatic exchanges involving AMC, the National Association of Theatre Owners and Universal, Regal Entertainment owner Cineworld Group has now added its voice to the chorus of windows controversy surrounding Trolls World Tour. The world’s second biggest...

deadline.com

 

[Jake Lipson]

The big chain theater owners have long believed that theatrical exclusivity is essential to their business model. After the pandemic, that will be even moreso than before. If you can stay home and get the same content offered to you in the theater, that's an incentive to stay home, which works against theaters trying to get back up and running again. They are going to need the cooperation of the studios in order to successfully reopen when the time comes for that. So I definitely don't see them backing down from this rule anytime soon -- which, again, is not new. Nothing about this should be surprising.

 

[jcroy]

Neither side knows or could possibly know. It’s not helpful to anyone that they’re sniping back and forth. With thousands of people dying every day and the prospect of the pandemic continuing through 2022, it seems remarkably petty for these groups to be getting into these arguments now.

All this war of words may very well sound like petulant infighting in a non-essential sector.

Nevertheless, I believe it is better for these folks (or fools?) running Universal, AMC, Regal, etc ... to be transparent.

 

[Adam Lenhardt]

The thing I don't get about Universal's position is that they're acting like VOD premium rentals is a one-for-one substitution for the theatrical window, where they've traded up from roughly 50 percent of the gross to roughly 80 percent of the gross. But there's no way the the premium VOD window didn't cannibalize physical media and digital purchases, as well as regular digital rentals.

Unless theatrical attendance really collapses on the other side of this pandemic, the theatrical window remains the best way for the studios to get two bites of the apple.

The Uni statement confuses me. Are they saying they play to release movies theatrically and on video at the same time or not?

I think Universal's original statement was a trial balloon; they wanted to see:

1. If other theater chains would take a hard line like AMC did.
2. Whether other studios would back their play.

It's looking like the other theater chains are taking a hard line, and the other studios are remaining silent. So my guess is that this quietly goes away once the country reopens.

 

[jcroy]

I think Universal's original statement was a trial balloon; they wanted to see:

1. If other theater chains would take a hard line like AMC did.
2. Whether other studios would back their play.

It's looking like the other theater chains are taking a hard line, and the other studios are remaining silent. So my guess is that this quietly goes away once the country reopens.

With the theater chains being in a weakened state, they have noting to lose by taking an official hard line. (Especially if the executives are privately anticipating bankruptcy).

 

[jcroy]

Heh.

NBCUniversal CEO Jeff Shell On ‘Trolls World Tour’ Window Fracas: Theatrical “Central Element To Our Business” But PVOD “Complementary”

Days after Jeff Shell‘s statements in the Wall Street Journal spurred AMC boss Adam Aron to embargo the studio’s films, the NBCUniversal CEO acknowledged the company’s commitment to theatrical, but that Premium VOD will still be part of the equation. “The question is when we come out of this...

deadline.com

We provided consumers with a product they desperately needed at home, particularly if you have a bunch of 7 year olds and 5 year olds running around. And it was good for employees as it kept them working on something, and gave us an ability to make money on something that we were proud of.

If the theater chains don't do a complete blanket boycott of Universal, I wouldn't be surprised if it's primarily the huge tentpoles and "awards"-worthy type of films, which end up still on theater screens.

Will animation/kids type films end up going direct to streaming with very little or no theater screenings?

 

[Jake Lipson]

None of the major chains will play anything that doesn't adhere to their exclusive window. They're not going to change that.

However, I think Universal will blink here and their future releases post-pandemic will respect the window, and then everything will be fine.

 

[TravisR]

None of the major chains will play anything that doesn't adhere to their exclusive window. They're not going to change that.

However, I think Universal will blink here and their future releases post-pandemic will respect the window, and then everything will be fine.

Unless they can get by on making money once or twice a year when they have megahits like Fast And The Furious and Jurassic World, they'll be doing what the theaters tell them. I think they're churning out those F&Fs annually now (especially with the lead time that pushing this year's one back has given them) but there is no JW the next year so they better prepare for lean times if they think they can get by without theaters.

 

[Jake Lipson]

The CEO of IMAX says Christopher Nolan is pushing for Tenet to keep its release in July: https://www.rereleasenews.com/2020/...to-have-tenet-released-in-july-says-imax-ceo/

 

[Tino]

The CEO of IMAX says Christopher Nolan is pushing for Tenet to keep its release in July: https://www.rereleasenews.com/2020/...to-have-tenet-released-in-july-says-imax-ceo/

Shame on Nolan then.

 

[TravisR]

The CEO of IMAX says Christopher Nolan is pushing for Tenet to keep its release in July: https://www.rereleasenews.com/2020/...to-have-tenet-released-in-july-says-imax-ceo/

I'd imagine Nolan is the only reason it hasn't been pushed back yet but I don't think even he has the juice to make Warners gamble $200 million that seems likely to have trouble earning its money back right now. Selling an expensive non-franchise movie to the audience is tough enough today but for it to be the lead off movie to reopen theaters seems like a hurdle too tough to overcome and Warners knows it.

EDIT: Everyone knows Nolan is a big 35mm and IMAX booster but far fewer people are going to be able to see it on film because, IF theaters open, they'll be operating under social distancing. And while digital screenings can balance that out by having more screens, there's no way that theaters are going to get multiple 35mm prints and it's impossible to have more than one IMAX print so by opening in July, he'd be doing a disservice to his preferred format.

 

[Josh Steinberg]

I love Nolan and I love IMAX.

I cannot imagine any circumstance under which I’d feel comfortable going to my IMAX theater to see this in July. It’s a huge auditorium with strongly sloped stadium seating. Even if everyone sits six feet apart and they cap ticket sales, the layout of the auditorium means that if someone sneezes in the back row, it travels to the front row. No thanks.

 

[Malcolm R]

With limitations on attendance when things open, we could be headed for a period when a hit film plays for several months instead of having one or two big weeks then being forgotten.

Studios may need to be patient and allow more space between the bigger titles, rather than trying to open a new blockbuster every week.

 

[Jake Lipson]

Studios may need to be patient and allow more space between the bigger titles, rather than trying to open a new blockbuster every week.

That's a great point. But the challenge there is that the studios would essentially have to work together in order to make a schedule balance out like you're describing. For example, as of right now Tenet and Mulan are scheduled to open on back-to-back weeks in July. I doubt either one of them will, but let's say for sake of argument that they could. Which one moves in order to allow the other one more space? Neither Warner nor Disney will want to be seen as the studio that blinked.

The longer it takes for movie theaters to get safely back up and running, the more congested the release schedule will become as more and more movies have to get pushed back.

 

[jcroy]

35mm is one of the few reasons I would still be watching something in the theater. (Unfortunately there has not been many films of interest to me which was possibly shot on 35mm over the past decade or so).

If I hear that something I'm possibly interested in was done all digitally without any film at all, then that usually demotes any interest I have in watching any theaterical screenings.

 

[jcroy]

Some more punditry by research analysts.

Studios bypass cinemas with lucrative lockdown premieres

Universal’s latest on-demand hit, kept out of theatres by Covid-19, has made more profit in three weeks than its predecessor did in five months on the big screen

www.theguardian.com

One passage popped out to me:

PVOD releases would also likely cannibalise secondary windows. If you rent a film for £15.99, you’re not then going to rent it again for £5.99 a few months later. But you might do that if you had seen it at the cinema first.


Does anyone here know what this passage means? (ie. What exactly is a "secondary windows" ?)

 

[Wayne_j]

Some more punditry by research analysts.

Studios bypass cinemas with lucrative lockdown premieres

Universal’s latest on-demand hit, kept out of theatres by Covid-19, has made more profit in three weeks than its predecessor did in five months on the big screen

www.theguardian.com

One passage popped out to me:

PVOD releases would also likely cannibalise secondary windows. If you rent a film for £15.99, you’re not then going to rent it again for £5.99 a few months later. But you might do that if you had seen it at the cinema first.


Does anyone here know what this passage means? (ie. What exactly is a "secondary windows" ?)

The first window would be theatrical release, secondary windows would be 90 days later when you can see it at home on vod or purchase.

 

[Jake Lipson]

Does anyone here know what this passage means? (ie. What exactly is a "secondary windows" ?)

Wayne explained this in a more succinct manner while I was typing out this longer response. But let's go with Trolls as an example. It skipped the first window due to the pandemic, which is why they've decided to set the price at $19.99 for a rental because it's a premium product and they are trying to recoup some of the monies they would've gotten from a standard theatrical release. Eventually, it won't be priced as a premium rental anymore because eventually it won't be new. If the movie had come out in theaters first, then you would be able to rent it when the disc comes out for about $5 or thereabouts.

It's saying that if someone pays $19.99 to rent the movie now, they are less likely to pay $5 to rent it again later because they've already done that at a higher price.

 

[BobO'Link]

I would guess those doing the ~$20 rental are a mix of people who'd normally see the movie in the theater and those who'd normally wait for the ~$5 rental. That cannibalizes both release segments.

I can't see that many adults renting a movie they've already seen in the theater and believe these direct-to-VOD rentals are no different. It's been rented once and they are unlikely to rent it again no matter how cheap it may be. That's mainly because, from my experiences, the vast majority of adults are content to see most movies once. My wife's one of those. She doesn't watch many movies and very rarely rewatches one she's already seen. She's more likely to rewatch a TV series.

The movies that will benefit most from bypassing theatrical for VOD and still get those $5 rentals later are going to be those aimed at kids. Kids'll rewatch a movie dozens of times.