2020 At The Boxoffice (1 Viewer)

[jcroy]

Almost like playing a game of "truth or dare".

 

[Colin Jacobson]

Almost like playing a game of "truth or dare".

"Truth or Dare" - a Universal release!

The Uni vs. AMC fight is more like a game of Chicken, though...

 

[Colin Jacobson]

None of this posturing matters.

Meaning you think Uni will back down and stick with the traditional release model?

Or AMC will cave and accept the dual theatrical/video model?

Or AMC will shutter and never reopen?

Or movie theaters are toast period?

Or...?

 

[Josh Steinberg]

I think there are so many variables and uncertainties that neither company can offer anything more than wishful thinking at this point.

 

[Jake Lipson]

Universal has responded:

Universal Responds To AMC: Studio Believes In Theatrical, But Expects To Release Movies Directly To Theatres & PVOD When “Outlet Makes Sense”

Universal has responded to AMC boss Adam Aron telling the studio that the chain won't be playing their titles at their global venues.

deadline.com

“Our goal in releasing Trolls: World Tour on PVOD was to deliver entertainment to people who are sheltering at home, while movie theatres and other forms of outside entertainment are unavailable. Based on the enthusiastic response to the film, we believe we made the right move. In fact, given the choice of not releasing Trolls: World Tour, which would not only have prevented consumers from experiencing the movie but also negatively impacted our partners and employees, the decision was clear. Our desire has always been to efficiently deliver entertainment to as wide an audience as possible. We absolutely believe in the theatrical experience and have made no statement to the contrary. As we stated earlier, going forward, we expect to release future films directly to theatres, as well as on PVOD when that distribution outlet makes sense. We look forward to having additional private conversations with our exhibition partners but are disappointed by this seemingly coordinated attempt from AMC and NATO to confuse our position and our actions.”

I think this is deflecting the actual issue. AMC's statement was in response to the idea that future films would go theatrical and VOD after they reopen. That's different than objecting to Trolls specifically.

 

[Jake Lipson]

The National Association of Theater Owners has issued a new statement in response to Universal's response:

Earlier today NATO issued a statement regarding Universal Studios’ public comments in the Wall Street Journal regarding that studios’ evaluation of the results of releasing the movie Trolls World Tour directly to the home without a theatrical release, and specifically that Universal would release future movies both theatrically and to the home.

Also today, according to various public press reports, AMC released a letter that company sent to Universal stating AMC’s individual company reaction to Universal’s public statement earlier in the day in the Wall Street Journal. NATO and AMC did not coordinate those statements in any way. Indeed, AMC had no comment on NATO’s draft statement when sent to NATO’s Board of Directors, nor did AMC participate in the Board deliberations regarding that statement. Regarding AMC’s reported letter to Universal, NATO had no involvement with nor knowledge of that letter before reading about it in the press.

Without any knowledge of the facts, or the common courtesy to inquire about those facts, Universal nonetheless made the reckless charge this evening that the company is “disappointed by this seemingly coordinated attempt from AMC and NATO to confuse our position and our actions.” Unfortunately Universal has a destructive tendency to both announce decisions affecting their exhibitor partners without actually consulting with those partners, and now of making unfounded accusations without consulting with their partners.

More at the link:

Theater Owners Accuse Universal Of “Destructive Tendency” And Not Involving Circuits In ‘Trolls World Tour’ PVOD Decision

2nd Update, 8:05PM: Following the National Association of Theatre Owners’ earlier statement today deflating NBCUniversal’s $95M PVOD victory with Trolls World Tour in the Wall Street Jo…

deadline.com

 

[Colin Jacobson]

Universal has responded:

Universal Responds To AMC: Studio Believes In Theatrical, But Expects To Release Movies Directly To Theatres & PVOD When “Outlet Makes Sense”

Universal has responded to AMC boss Adam Aron telling the studio that the chain won't be playing their titles at their global venues.

deadline.com

I think this is deflecting the actual issue. AMC's statement was in response to the idea that future films would go theatrical and VOD after they reopen. That's different than objecting to Trolls specifically.

The Uni statement confuses me. Are they saying they play to release movies theatrically and on video at the same time or not?

 

[Jake Lipson]

I think Universal's statement is vague on purpose in order to give themselves wiggle room. I also don't understand why this issue is currently news. Cinemark, Regal and AMC have always had a standard policy that they won't play movies that aren't theatrical exclusives. This is the same reason that they won't play films from Netflix. The only thing that's different now is Universal's attempt to use the success of Trolls to justify changing the model, and that they have been fighting about it in the press. I also think that people who are saying that the theater owners are upset about Trolls specifically are oversimplifying the issue. I think that they know current circumstances made a theatrical release at this time impossible for Trolls. What they are upset about is Universal's stated intention to show movies in theaters and on VOD at the same time after theaters reopen, which is what their CEO said to the Wall Street Journal in an article published yesterday.

In other news, Variety has an interview with John Fithian, the CEO of the National Association of Theatre Owners, about the steps being taken to prepare for when theaters can reopen. It's interesting reading.

Theater Owners Chief on Plans to Reopen Cinemas After Coronavirus Crisis

NATO chief John Fithian targets July debuts of ‘Tenet,’ ‘Mulan’ as the time for theaters to ramp up — with a few changes.

variety.com

 

[Jake Lipson]

And now the European cinemas body has released a statement as well:

“The performance of Trolls Word Tour should be viewed – and only viewed – in the context of the exceptional circumstances surrounding its release and the unprecedented times we are living through. When a third of the global population is currently on some form of a coronavirus lockdown and only 4% of cinema screens around the world are open, it is hardly surprising that many have turned to VOD and similar other services.

The results for this title also undoubtedly owe a great deal to its marketing as – what was then planned to be – a theatrical release. The sequel was also one of the very few children’s films to hit the market at this time, making it – even at a premium price – appealing to many families confined indoors.

This combination of unusual circumstances should not be used as a reference to re-design a longstanding and proven release business model, which remains crucial in ensuring the ongoing availability of films to the benefit of audiences. Those who will depend on the success of the film industry should refrain from hastily altering key practices for short-term gains and should instead commit to create the best conditions for the whole sector to recover as soon as possible.

Everyone has had to make adjustments in their daily lives and this includes film fans. This should, however, not be seen as a sign of changing preferences from an audience standpoint – it is after all worth recalling that 2019 was a record-breaking year for cinemas worldwide.”

European Cinemas Body UNIC Says ‘Trolls World Tour’ VOD Release “Does Not Justify Wholesale Changes”

Org says Universal's PVOD release “Does not justify wholesale changes”.

deadline.com

 

[TravisR]

The European statement above is exactly right. Every child in the U.S. is in quarantine so it's not hard to imagine that lots of parents would pay the price of the rental to give them something to do. Even more importantly is that Trolls had an ad campaign designed for a theatrical release and the added benefit of tons of press saying "Wow! New Trolls Movie Goes Straight To Home Instead Of Theaters. Wow!". Outside of Fast and the Furious, Trolls is the absolute monetary peak for what they can make with VOD.

If VOD becomes the norm, there won't be press for smaller new movies and there definitely won't be theatrical release-sized ad campaigns for any movie. Without big ad campaigns, how many people are going to even know about (let alone choose to spend $20 on a rental for) a Blumhouse movie? Those movies are cheap enough that they are very profitable for Universal. If Universal can get by on the money from their annual Fast and the Furious movies then VOD may work for them. If not, they need to keep releasing their movies in theaters.

 

[Malcolm R]

It's just blustering by AMC as they're backed into a financial corner from several directions.

If push comes to shove, and things get back on track, AMC is not going to refuse to show the next Fast & Furious film, or the next Jurassic World film. If they did, their nearby competitors would be happy to screen them.

 

[Jake Lipson]

Their competitors would absolutely refuse to show F&F or Jurassic if Universal tries to release them on VOD and in theaters at the same time.

All of the major chains have maintained a policy of only supporting exclusive theatrical releases for years. That is not new. It's why Roma, Marriage Story and The Irishman didn't play in wide release. Any studio that decides to unilaterally break that code with the theater chains will have the release blocked. We know this. Nothing is new here.

 

[jcroy]

It's just blustering by AMC as they're backed into a financial corner from several directions.

If they did, their nearby competitors would be happy to screen them.

The only way Universal will blink first, is if AMC forms a unified front (or cartel) with Regal and CineMark. (Assuming they don't file for bankruptcy first).

 

[TravisR]

It's just blustering by AMC as they're backed into a financial corner from several directions.

If push comes to shove, and things get back on track, AMC is not going to refuse to show the next Fast & Furious film, or the next Jurassic World film. If they did, their nearby competitors would be happy to screen them.

I agree that they will definitely play F&F and JW but if AMC wants to cause them problems, they can not carry every other movie that Universal releases or have them for a week or two and drop them. That would be financially devastating to Universal. And like Jake said, the other chains won't play Universal pictures if their movies are going VOD.

 

[Wayne_j]

The only way Universal will blink first, is if AMC forms a unified front (or cartel) with Regal and CineMark. (Assuming they don't file for bankruptcy first).

That is called NATO. (North American Theater Owners).

 

[Jake Lipson]

If Universal agrees to abide by a standard window, then AMC will happily book their big event titles.

It's not like they're blustering about Trolls. They're upset that the CEO is using Trolls as a justification for altering the windowing on future titles, not ones that are coming out during the pandemic. That's different.

 

[TravisR]

If Universal agrees to abide by a standard window, then AMC will happily book their big event titles.

It's not like they're blustering about Trolls. They're upset that the CEO is using Trolls as a justification for altering the windowing on future titles, not ones that are coming out during the pandemic. That's different.

Honestly, I think both sides are just talking tough but they both know it'll get worked out because it's in both AMC and Universal's best financial interest to work it out.

 

[jcroy]

That is called NATO. (North American Theater Owners).

Can they penalize/censure their members for breaking away from a unified front ?

 

[Jake Lipson]

It is a unified front.

The exclusive windowing requirement is not new.

When the pandemic is over I fully expect the 90(-ish) day windows will return. Universal will open F&F next April and then it will be on VOD in say August or so and everything will be fine. It's only a problem if Universal tries to do a simultaneous window.

The theater owners are not publicly disparaging Warner Bros. because of their decision to release Scoob on VOD. They are not publicly disparaging Disney for taking Artemis Fowl to Disney+. Those studios have demonstrated that these decisions are one-offs as a result of the pandemic and they are committed to theatrical windowing. Disney is holding Mulan, Black Widow and Soul. Warner Bros. is holding In the Heights and Wonder Woman and hasn't even undated Tenet (yet) for July. This clearly demonstrates that they still believe in the theatrical model.

Only Universal has said that their VOD experiment will continue beyond the pandemic, and that's why AMC is upset.

 

[Josh Steinberg]

And with no knowledge of what the theatrical landscape will look like when this ends, I really don’t think it matters what either the studio nor the theater chain say - neither know with any certainty what the landscape will be.

It’s quite possible that we’ll live in a world where a substantial number of people won’t go to a theater anymore no matter what, while a substantial number will go. It’s possible that we’ll have a scenario where parts of the country are open for normal activities and part aren’t. Universal can’t say with any certainty that there’s a PVOD audience out there to support $20 rentals in a post lockdown world. And AMC can’t say with any certainty that the business model that worked prepandemic will be the one that makes the most sense to return to when it ends. And it can very well end up that one market may not overlap at all with the other.

I know a lot of us believe that safe or not, a lot of people will want to resume normal life activities as soon as possible. And that may be absolutely true. But it also may be the case that when the reality of that hits, people may not feel as comfortable sitting packed into a crowded auditorium as they thought they would.

I don’t think Universal is in a position to say that day and date theatrical and PVOD releases work as a sustainable tactic during normal circumstances, and I don’t think AMC is in a position to say that their business is so healthy that they can categorically refuse to any changes to it and that there will be no new realities that will factor into the future landscape.

Neither side knows.

We may emerge in a future with a split market where the only way big ticket releases are financially viable is from a combination of theatrical revenue from fewer tickets selling at higher prices to those who are willing to go out, and PVOD revenue from those who are not, and that neither group alone is enough to break even.

Neither side knows or could possibly know. It’s not helpful to anyone that they’re sniping back and forth. With thousands of people dying every day and the prospect of the pandemic continuing through 2022, it seems remarkably petty for these groups to be getting into these arguments now.