Warner CEO wants to combine UV and DMA (1 Viewer)

[Sam Posten]

DEG is a master of statistical misdirection.

Hey I know a guy who's been saying exactly that for a while.


And they'll never give you a breakdown of how much of EST percentage wise is going to UV vice the walled gardens. Which is convenient because if they are selling more on places like iTunes and XBL it allllll gets counted in with EST which makes the UV guys crow by proxy when they aren't a party to that.

 

[Towergrove]

Hey I know a guy who's been saying exactly that for a while.

And they'll never give you a breakdown of how much of EST percentage wise is going to UV vice the walled gardens. Which is convenient because if they are selling more on places like iTunes and XBL it allllll gets counted in with EST which makes the UV guys crow by proxy when they aren't a party to that.

I just wish we had accurate counts across the board which no one company seems to provide because of agendas.

 

[Patrick Donahue]

Bucksguy,

In thinking about all the great information you have provided, and all the different tangents the conversation could go, I think the one thing it all comes down to for us consumers is how safe do you feel our digital purchases are?

It makes me think back to a few years ago when Amazon pulled "1984" from people's Kindles and it made national news. Heck, Apple GIVING a free U2 album upset people. From licenses that can be revoked to providers that might only stream content you purchased directly from them - is there any way you can quantify how well spent our money on purchases is?

 

[Towergrove]

OK everyone, this has been very entertaining, and I wish I could spend more time in this discussion, but I need to get back to work and won't be able to reply for a while. Thanks for being civil. It's why I jumped into the conversation.

So great to get your opinions on this board. Please come back again in the future for more discussions.

Best Regards-

Sarah

 

[Ejanss]

In my idea the Netflix model would be nonexistent. You would pay a monthly fee directly to the studios (think HBO Now) for access to their entire catalogs, minus anything from the last, say, 3 years which would be available for rental or purchasing. The idea that movies would come and go, while true with Netflix, is not applicable to what I am proposing.

Fine, but just reminding that while Netflix is held up as the "good" example of sVOD's place in the current industry that has the most mainstream credibility and trust, the model you're proposing wouldn't be the one-stop Netflix: They're a clearinghouse of everyone else's digital files, and are at the mercy of everyone else's licenses.

What you want is similar to what CBS is already offering, and that's brought up the complaints of "Subscription burnout"--The majority of subscribers don't want to pay six monthly bills to six different sources for six different channels, they'd rather pay one bill to one source and get the most out of it, the way they used to do for cable.


You can have diversity OR a well-stocked back catalog, but they're completely different businesses.

And they'll never give you a breakdown of how much of EST percentage wise is going to UV vice the walled gardens. Which is convenient because if they are selling more on places like iTunes and XBL it allllll gets counted in with EST which makes the UV guys crow by proxy when they aren't a party to that.

Not to mention putting all their figures in "subscribers", and deriving their profits from that, when we never get a direct figure of how many of their subscribers actually paid for their goods.

And then wishfully presuming whoever subscribed immediately took a pledge to throw all their Blu-ray disks out the window.

 

[Patrick Donahue]

How about the studios form a conglomerate not unlike UV, and start ONE service, and charge $29.99 a month for EVERY title in their back catalog, plus rentals/purchases of new releases. I have got to think the Average Joe did not spend $29.99/month on DVD's last year, so the studios would probably be thrilled to make that, and it's a good deal for consumers. A Spotify for movies.

 

[Sam Posten]

I think Bucksguy has provided sufficient light on why the studios working together on that would be significantly challenging. Don't forget the example of the book publishers ganging up on Amazon via Apple as a reason why the studios have to be very careful of collusion and price fixing regulations too.

 

[bruceames]

Hey I know a guy who's been saying exactly that for a while.


And they'll never give you a breakdown of how much of EST percentage wise is going to UV vice the walled gardens. Which is convenient because if they are selling more on places like iTunes and XBL it allllll gets counted in with EST which makes the UV guys crow by proxy when they aren't a party to that.

EST is digtal sales of movies and TV shows only. How much of that is UV revenue isn't that important. What has been driving the growth the last two years is the two week early window. So whether one chooses to buy that new release on iTunes or Vudu or Amazon, it's all good for the studios. The important thing is that it is growing rapidly. But eventually, for digital to get to the "next level", there will need to be a uniform standard like UV with everyone included. At least now though, Disney movies can be viewed on VUDU, so those with UV collection can watch all their digital movies using one provider (and see their whole collection)


SVOD is growing fast as well, but to single out SVOD as the only important growth stream is short sighted (not that you said that). EST is already 75% of Blu-ray revenue ($1.55 billion last year) and it should exceed it within the next two years. Whether or not EST exceeds physical revenue will be interesting to see. That I think would depend on consumer confidence in digital and how many would ultimately prefer convenience over packaging. Eventually the quality will be there, but for most people the quality on digital is already "good enough".


As for the DEG, they are like any other trade group. They will spin the data in the best possible light. That's why I never cherry pick any sound bites (at least try not to, lol) and just go to the raw data. That's the only use the DEG has for me.


Physical media was down nearly 11 percent last year. It was a little higher than normal (mostly due to BLu-ray being down for the first time), but overall physical has been declining at a roughly linear rate for the last 5-7 years), about 8 percent on average. It will be around a long time and perhaps well past our lifetimes. I even think that sales will bottom out and rebound like they did with vinyl (although will a much higher share).

 

[Patrick Donahue]

I think Bucksguy has provided sufficient light on why the studios working together on that would be significantly challenging. Don't forget the example of the book publishers ganging up on Amazon via Apple as a reason why the studios have to be very careful of collusion and price fixing regulations too.

Understood. Moving on...

 

[Ejanss]

I think Bucksguy has provided sufficient light on why the studios working together on that would be significantly challenging. Don't forget the example of the book publishers ganging up on Amazon via Apple as a reason why the studios have to be very careful of collusion and price fixing regulations too.

It's a pretty good illustration that as long as it's seen as a "gold rush" bubble, every company, provider, and studio wants to be the one company to strike the mother lode.

The ONE company. Not the conglomerate.


Parent-corporation studios jealously holding on to their property is already the reason why movies on broadcast TV became near-extinct (except for studio-owned channels), and we're asking that they all get together and share the wealth?

I have got to think the Average Joe did not spend $29.99/month on DVD's last year

(I'm assuming his last name starts with an S?)

 

[Patrick Donahue]

(I'm assuming his last name starts with an S?)

Come on Ejanss, I'm respectfully asking you to get into the spirit of civility here, and I'm the 3rd person in this thread alone to do so. You can make points without the little jabs here and there.

 

[satam55]

Bucksguy, thanks for the posting, its a very good read! I am wondering what your thoughts are of the newly formed and soon launching scsallc.com. supported by industry heavyweights Fox and Warner?

While the pendulum for rental vs sell thru swings one way or another as in the past the option to do both always continues to be there. Thats important as sell thru of media still in 2015 is a 7 to 8 Billion dollar a year business which is a large chunk of the overall pie and is hardly chump change. I find it interesting to hear sometimes that millenials have little interest in collecting media but then hear of the LP resurg which, by surveys shows is being fueled by millenials.
For me and my own opinion: Still waiting for the promised CFF before I make another digital purchase (I will buy physical until then).

Here's my entire opinion on SCSA.

http://xkcd.com/927/

I look at SCSA this way. CFF is for UltraViolet content. So seeing that UltraViolet retailers like VUDU/Walmart & M-GO are involved with SCSA, I'm hoping that SCSA is for NON-UV content.

 

[[email protected]]

Discuss... and by that I mean argue a lot...

http://homemediamagazine.com/studios/warner-ceo-wants-meld-ultraviolet-disney-movies-anywhere-35355

They need to do something to make this easier for the consumer. When I go buy a DVD I don't need to wonder if my DVD player will play it, because they all will regardless of brand. Imagine if when you bought a Sony DVD, it would only play in a Sony brand DVD player......that's what we have in digital right now, it's a mess.

I think Ultraviolet is a huge step in the right direction and really opened up digital movies for a lot of people but, as long as the walled gardens like itunes and to some degree Amazon and Google, continue to avoid UV like the plague people still have to try to figure out which players will work with what. I use UV and like it because it works on all my devices but what if Apple comes out with a new Apple tv that is better than my Roku and I want to switch? I really can't since none of my digital movies would play on it.

If I was an itunes guy with an iphone but really liked the new Galaxy S6, but if I switched, my movies would no longer be available on it. If the walled gardens wan't to stay walled gardens let them do so but not for digital media, that should be universal. IMO

 

[bruceames]

They need to do something to make this easier for the consumer. When I go buy a DVD I don't need to wonder if my DVD player will play it, because they all will regardless of brand. Imagine if when you bought a Sony DVD, it would only play in a Sony brand DVD player......that's what we have in digital right now, it's a mess.

I think Ultraviolet is a huge step in the right direction and really opened up digital movies for a lot of people but, as long as the walled gardens like itunes and to some degree Amazon and Google, continue to avoid UV like the plague people still have to try to figure out which players will work with what. I use UV and like it because it works on all my devices but what if Apple comes out with a new Apple tv that is better than my Roku and I want to switch? I really can't since none of my digital movies would play on it.

If I was an itunes guy with an iphone but really liked the new Galaxy S6, but if I switched, my movies would no longer be available on it. If the walled gardens wan't to stay walled gardens let them do so but not for digital media, that should be universal. IMO

Doesn't Apple TV have a VUDU app? You can access all your UV and DMA movies from that.

 

[Mark Booth]

I've never "redeemed" a single UV code. The only codes that I redeem are the ones that work in iTunes. And I don't even download the digital copies. They are in my iTunes account and I can access them at any time from any of my devices or computers.


For the rest of my Blu-rays, if ever I need a digital copy, it only takes a little while to rip a copy and convert it to an mp4.


Mark

 

[Patrick Donahue]

Doesn't Apple TV have a VUDU app? You can access all your UV and DMA movies from that.

Nope

 

[Joshua Clinard]

But you can use AirPlay to cast movies from vudu to the AppleTV.

 

[satam55]

I've never "redeemed" a single UV code. The only codes that I redeem are the ones that work in iTunes. And I don't even download the digital copies. They are in my iTunes account and I can access them at any time from any of my devices or computers.

For the rest of my Blu-rays, if ever I need a digital copy, it only takes a little while to rip a copy and convert it to an mp4.

Mark

And the point of you posting in this thread?

 

[Sam Posten]

I'm not Mark but I'll take a shot: Because a universal redemption scheme that isn't anywhere near universal doesn't fix any problems (not least of which is the goal of the OP), because iTunes works better than UV and has been around a lot longer and has higher customer satisfaction that UV, and because trying to judge what a market will do based on our own usage is folly. The wants and needs of self described fans often are wildly different than the mass market, sometimes to the point of being polar opposites. Mark's ripping strategy might work for about .001% of the market, which statistically isn't that far off from the wants and needs that the UV fans claim above are things that UV must deliver to be successful.

 

[Ejanss]

Mark's ripping strategy might work for about .001% of the market, which statistically isn't that far off from the wants and needs that the UV fans claim above are things that UV must deliver to be successful.

It's also the same argument that was brought up against "Who cares, I'll buy the import!" as an answer to R1 studios' problems:
The normal majority of customers don't like to do illegal or underground things to get their movies. Fans do--because they believe the end justifies it to either revenge themselves against the System or get nothing less than the prime edition--but most customers, whether they want disk or streaming, want it from the most reliable retail source at the most mass-market price.

And telling them, "Well, you should learn to, like me!" doesn't exactly help the credible/ethical image, either.


That's why they wanted one disk format during Disk War I & II, and why they'll pick up the pieces with whoever's left standing at the end of the UV wars, but for now, will take the first company to offer them a streaming movie for free and stick with it until it goes out of business.

That's because they don't really take digital seriously, you see.