Oscar Prognosticators - Post Your Nomination Predictions Here! (1 Viewer)

[Dana Fillhart]

...such as totally skipping Art Direction! D'oh!

(It's been corrected )

 

[Craig S]

To the folks participating in this thread:

My spreadsheet is ready and I will start counting the picks around 8-9 CST tonight. I will make one last check of the thread just before midnight, so if you make any changes to your existing post between 8 and midnight please alert me via a "bump" post here.

After my midnight pass I will post the final consensus. Should be up around 12:30 AM CST.

 

[Travis_S]

I'll throw my hat in here.

Best Picture
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Lost in Translation
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Mystic River
Seabiscuit

Best Director
Peter Jackson, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation
Peter Weir, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Clint Eastwood, Mystic River
Jim Sheridan, In America

Best Actor
Russel Crowe, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Johnny Depp, Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl
Ben Kingsley, House of Sand and Fog
Bill Murray, Lost in Translation
Sean Penn, Mystic River


Best Actress
Diane Keaton, Something's Gotta Give
Scarlett Johansson, Lost in Translation
Nicole Kidman, Cold Mountain
Charlize Theron, Monster
Evan Rachel Wood, Thirteen


Best Supporting Actor
Sean Astin, Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Alec Baldwin, The Cooler
Albert Finney, Big Fish
Tim Robbins, Mystic River
Ken Wantanabe, The Last Samurai

Best Supporting Actress
Shohreh Aghdashloo, House of Sand and Fog
Maria Bello, The Cooler
Patricia Clarkson, Pieces of April
Holly Hunter, Thirteen
Renee Zellweger, Cold Mountain

 

[Brian W.]

I updated mine to add Documentary Feature, Craig.

 

[Craig S]

Final HTF Consensus
Here is the final count. Listed in order of votes received. Wild-cards are indicted in red. Ties are indicated with italics.

In those categories where there is a predetermined list of eligible films (Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, Foreign Language Film, Makeup, Sound Editing & Visual Effects) any votes for non-eligible films have NOT been counted.

Performance By An Actor In A Leading Role
Ben Kingsley - House Of Sand And Fog - 12
Sean Penn - Mystic River - 12
Johnny Depp - Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl - 11
Bill Murray - Lost In Translation - 11
Russell Crowe - Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World - 7.5
Jude Law - Cold Mountain - 5

Performance By An Actor In A Supporting Role
Tim Robbins - Mystic River - 12
Benicio Del Toro - 21 Grams - 10
Alec Baldwin - The Cooler - 9
Albert Finney - Big Fish - 8.5
Ken Watenabe - The Last Samurai - 8
Sean Astin - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King - 7

Performance By An Actress In A Leading Role
Diane Keaton - Something’s Gotta Give - 12
Charlize Theron - Monster - 12
Naomi Watts - 21 Grams - 10
Nicole Kidman - Cold Mountain - 9
Jennifer Connolly - House Of Sand And Fog - 7
Evan Rachel Wood - Thirteen - 5.5

Performance By An Actress In A Supporting Role
Renee Zellweger - Cold Mountain - 12
Holly Hunter - Thirteen - 10
Scarlett Johansson - Lost In Translation - 9
Shohreh Aghdashloo - House Of Sand And Fog - 6
Marcia Gay Harden - Mystic River - 5
Keisha Castle-Hughes -Whale Rider - 5

Best Animated Feature Film Of The Year
Finding Nemo - 10
The Triplets of Belleville - 10
Brother Bear - 7
Millennium Actress - 2.5

Achievement In Art Direction
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King - 11
The Last Samurai - 8
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World - 7
Seabiscuit - 6
Cold Mountain - 5.5
Girl With A Pearl Earring - 5

Achievement In Cinematography
Andrew Lesnie - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King - 11
John Toll - The Last Samurai - 10
Russell Boyd and Sandi Sissel - Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World - 10
John Schwartzman - Seabiscuit - 8
John Seale - Cold Mountain - 7
Roger Deakins - House Of Sand And Fog - 3.5

Achievement In Costume Design
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King - 10
The Last Samurai - 8
Seabiscuit - 8
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World - 7.5
Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl - 7
Cold Mountain - 6

Achievement In Directing
Clint Eastwood - Mystic River - 12
Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King - 12
Peter Weir - Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World - 12
Sofia Coppola - Lost In Translation - 11
Gary Ross - Seabiscuit - 5.5
Anthony Minghella - Cold Mountain - 4

Best Documentary Feature
Capturing The Friedmans - 11
The Fog Of War - 11
Bus 174 - 8
My Architect: A Son’s Journey - 5
My Flesh and Blood - 4
Charlie: The Life And Art Of Charlie Chaplin - 2
The Lost Boys Of The Sudan - 2
The Weather Underground - 2

Best Documentary Short Subject

Achievement In Film Editing
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King - 11
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World - 10
Mystic River - 9
Seabiscuit - 6
Kill Bill: Vol. 1 - 4.5
Lost In Translation - 4

Best Foreign Language Film Of The Year
The Barbarian Invasions (Canada) - 8
Osama (Afghanistan) - 8
Good Bye, Lenin! (Germany) - 7
Spring,Summer,Fall,Winter,and...Spring (Korea) - 5
The Return (Russia) - 3
Bon Voyage (France) - 2
Divine Intervention (Palestine) - 2

Achievement In Makeup
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King - 11
Monster - 8
Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl - 8
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World - 2.5

Achievement In Music (Original Score)
Howard Shore - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King - 10
Danny Elfman - Big Fish - 7
Gabriel Yared - Cold Mountain - 7
Randy Newman - Seabiscuit - 5
Hans Zimmer - The Last Samurai - 5
James Newton Howard - Peter Pan - 4

Achievement In Music (Original Song)
Annie Lennox, Howard Shore & Philippa Boyens, "Into The West" - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King - 10
Eddie Vedder, "Man of the Hour", Big Fish - 9
Sammy James, Jr. & Mike White, "School of Rock" - School Of Rock - 8
Bono, "Time Enough for Tears", In America - 7.5
Eugene Levy, Christopher Guest & Michael McKean, "A Mighty Wind" - A Mighty Wind - 7
Sting, "You Will Be My Own True Love" - Cold Mountain - 4

Best Motion Picture Of The Year
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King - 14
Mystic River - 14
Lost In Translation - 12
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World - 12
Seabiscuit - 9
Cold Mountain - 7.5

Best Animated Short Film

Best Live Action Short Film

Achievement In Sound
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King - 11
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World - 10
Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl - 8
The Last Samurai - 7
Kill Bill: Vol. 1 - 6
Cold Mountain - 4.5

Achievement In Sound Editing
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King - 11
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World - 8
Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl - 6
Kill Bill: Vol. 1 - 5.5

Achievement In Visual Effects
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King - 11
Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl - 10
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World - 8

Screenplay Based On Material Previously Produced Or Published
Frances Walsh, Philippa Boyens & Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King - 10
Brian Helgeland - Mystic River - 10
Shari Springer Berman & Robert Pulcini - American Splendor - 8
Anthony Minghella - Cold Mountain - 7
Gary Ross - Seabiscuit - 7
Peter Weir & John Collee - Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World - 4.5

Screenplay Written Directly For The Screen
Jim, Kirsten & Naomi Sheridan - In America - 11
Sofia Coppola - Lost In Translation - 11
Andrew Stanton & Bob Peterson - Finding Nemo - 7
Guillermo Arriaga - 21 Grams - 6
Richard Curtis - Love Actually - 4.5
Patty Jenkins - Monster - 4
Thomas McCarthy - The Station Agent - 4

Final Counts
These are the predicted number of nominations for each film. A number in parens following the count indicates the number of wild-card slots the film has. A range indicates the film was involved in a tie.

The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The Kings: 13 (1)
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World: 10 (2)
Seabiscuit: 8
Mystic River: 6 - 7
The Last Samurai: 6
Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl: 6
Cold Mountain: 6 (6)
Lost In Translation: 5 (1)
House Of Sand And Fog: 3 (1)
21 Grams: 3
Big Fish: 3
Kill Bill: Vol. 1: 2 (1)
Monster: 2 (1)
Finding Nemo: 2
In America: 2
Thirteen: 1 (1)
American Splendor: 1
Love Actually: 1
A Mighty Wind: 1
School Of Rock: 1
Whale Rider: 1 - 1
Girl With A Pearl Earring: 0 (1)
Peter Pan: 0 (1)
The Station Agent: 0 (1)

 

[Brian W.]

Looks like a pretty good list, Craig. I can't wait to find out how close we came. Did you do a concensus last year for the nominations? I was thinking you did, but I only found a concensus for the winners for last year. Got a link by any chance?

 

[Tino]

I'm very late, but here are some of my predictions. No problem if you can't include them Craig. Sorry.:frowning:

Picture

Return Of The King
Lost In Translation
Mystic River
Seabiscuit
Master And Commander

Direction

Peter Jackson
Sophia Coppola
Clint Eastwood
Gary Ross
Peter Weir

Actor

Sean Penn (MR)
Bill Murray
Ben Kingsley
Johnny Depp
Russel Crowe

Actress

Charlize Theron
Diane Keaton
Evan Rachel Wood
Naomi Watts
Jennifer Connely

Sup. Actor

Tim Robbins
Sean Astin
Alec Baldwin
Ken Watenabe
Benecio Del Toro

Sup. Actress

Rene Zellwegger
Holly Hunter
Scarlet Johansen
Keisha Castle-Hughes
MArcia Gay Harden

 

[Holadem]

OK, so... is this the actual nominations thread? Will another one be created? It's 8:34AM ET, it's happening right now, I am surprised there isn't a new thread, is all.

--
H

 

[Craig S]

Holadem, I'll create another thread to predict the winners later today.

 

[Dana Fillhart]

Well, I was WAY off on so many of these, worst predictive power displayed yet.

Overall-effort awards:
(3/5) Best Picture - Had Finding Nemo and Cold Mountain in place of Lost in Translation and Seabiscuit
(2/3) Best Animated Film - Can't actually believe that Brother Bear beat out both Satoshi Kon's efforts (Millennium Actress, Tokyo Godfathers)...but maybe that was the problem -- the vote was too evenly split, and BB pulled ahead. Ah, well, my first and I think only REAL disappointment in the entire awards list.
(n/a) Best Foreign-Language Film - I abdicated from this category, but I knew without a doubt that The Barbarian Invasions would get a nom, and sure enough it did.
(3/5) Best Documentary Feature - Surprised Bus 174 didn't make the cut, but hey, I actually got 3/5 without having seen a single one of these!
(The other overall-effort categories -- the shorts -- I did not proffer guesses, so they're n/a.)

Singular-effort awards:
(3/5) Best Director - Had Cold Mountain and Seabiscuit instead of City of God and Lost in Translation
(4/5) Best Actor - Had Russell Crowe instead of Bill Murray, not a surprise there
(3/5) Best Actress - Had Nicole Kidman and Evan Rachel Wood instead of Keisha Castle-Hughes and Samantha Morton...BIG CONGRATS to KCH for Whale Rider!!
(2/5) Best Supporting Actor - ouch! Could've done much better, but this one has always been a tough one for me. Lots of surprises, but I don't think there were any major upsets (though I guess there's a lot of love here for Saarsgard, and those folk might perceive his non-nom as a snub).
(3/5) Best Supporting Actress - Had KCH for Whale Rider and Scarlett Johansson for Lost in Translation instead of Shohreh Aghdashloo and Marcia Gay Harden. Almost feels like a 3.5
(1.5/5) Best Original Song - I was way off, but it's not unexpected -- I don't know enough on how the Academy thinks and reacts to the potential candidates in this category to make an educated guess. I had the wrong song for A Mighty Wind, but had the film right, so I put a half point down for that. I also list this category in the Singular-effort awards over the technical awards grouping because I thought it better fit here.

Technical awards
(2/5) Best Cinematography - Ouch! Way off here. I can understand Lesnie's non-nom but I'm still a little disappointed. The other 2, well, it was a tough choice between the 8 or 9 that were reasonable choices, so I'm not upset on the outcome.
(2/5) Best Film Editing - Another Ouch. Not at all surprised by the announcements. Heck, I'll even go as far as say that I think ROTK's editing was its weakest element and could have been eliminated from the list, though it does make it harder to justify it being in the Best Picture category (Cold Mountain made it here, so go figure).
(4/5) Best Screenplay, Adapted - Ahh, much better No upset feelings on my part here.
(3/5) Best Screenplay, Original - Lots of good candidates here. I had The Station Agent and 21 Grams; I'm happy Finding Nemo made the cut, but haven't seen Barbarian Invasions to know which one I would've eliminated.
(2/5) Best Original Score - Wow, what a surprise (not disappointed -- nor elated -- just surprised). I'm surprised that Finding Nemo and House of Sand and Fog made the cut (I had Seabiscuit, Peter Pan, and Last Samurai), but not terribly surprised over Cold Mountain given that it has 2 Original Song noms.
(3/5) Best Sound - And I seriously thought Terminator 3 had a chance. Heh, oh well. I also had Kill Bill in place of the 2 that did make it (Pirates of the Caribbean and Seabiscuit).
(1/3) Best Sound Editing - Figures, only 1/3, and the only one I get is Master & Commander. Glad to see Finding Nemo made it, but I would've chosen Kill Bill or Lord of the Rings over Pirates.
(3/3) Best Visual Effects - MY ONLY 100%, WOOHOO!
(3/5) Best Art Direction - Not too bad; I had Down with Love and Pirates of the Caribbean in place of Master & Commander and Seabiscuit...not disappointed at all.
(3/5) Best Costume Design - Had Down with Love and Pirates of the Caribbean over Girl with a Pearl Earring and Seabiscuit. Really, now, can you say Seabiscuit's costumes were better than either DwL or POTC? Thought not
(2/3) Best Makeup - Surprised Monster didn't get the nom, but Master & Commander, I can accept.

So, overall my feelings range from very satisfied to elated (especially for Keisha Castle-Hughes, whom I dearly would love to see upset Theron in her category). My only disappointment of any significant note is the nom of Brother Bear, but that's tempered by a lack of Song noms (thank GOODNESS the Academy didn't go googoo over Philly-boy again).

Lastly...I wonder if Harvey knew the writing was on the wall for Cold Mountain and instead of twisting arms over it, he was actually calling voters up and reminding them about City of God...

Heh, one can dream of conspiracies all day, no?

 

[Tino]

23 out of 30. Not too bad I suppose

 

[Seth Paxton]

4 of 5 Motion Picture Of The Year
4 of 5 Director
4 of 5 Actor
3 of 5 Supporting Actor
3 of 5 Actress
3 of 5 Supporting Actress

21 of 30
I've had better years, but then again I didn't really have the time to devote to the guesses this year as much so I feel pretty good about it.

And the final nominations make an outstanding and diverse list. Good job Academy.

 

[Craig S]

4.5/5 - Picture (M&C was my wild card)
4/5 - Director
5/5 - Actor
4/5 - Supporting Actor
3/5 - Actress
4/5 - Supporting Actress

24.5/30. I'm pretty happy with that. I imagine that very few did better than 3/5 in Actress. I'm amazed I did 4/5 in the Supporting categories.

 

[Craig S]

And here's how the HTF did:

5/5 - Picture
4/5 - Director
4.5/5 - Actor (Jude Law was the wild card)
4/5 - Supporting Actor
3/5 - Actress
4/5 - Supporting Actress (there was a tie for the 5th spot between Hardin & Castle-Hughes. I'll award the whole point to us since both actresses DID get nominated. )

For a total of 24.5/30. Again, not too bad.

 

[ZacharyTait]

Results:

Picture: 5/5

Actor: 4/5 - That 5th slot was dicey and I expected Russell Crowe to ride the coattails of M&C to the final spot. Oh well.

Actress: 3/5 - Keisha and Samantha came out of nowhere. I was hoping they would get nominated, but didn't think they had a chance. I'm glad I was proven wrong.

Supporting Actor: 4/5 - Sean Astin was the real chance for ROTK to getting an acting nomination. I can't complain about the 5 that were though.

Supporting Actress: 2/5 - Ouch. At least one I didn't get ended up in the Actress race: Keisha. I'm disappointed Scarlett didn't get nominated for anything.

Director: 4/5 - I made the mistake of pairing up Pic with Director when I knew it would probably go 4 for 5. I'm thrilled at Fernando Mereilles getting nominated.

Adapted Screenplay: 3/5 - I had no clue about City of God, but kind of figured Seabiscuit might squezze in there. It was hard whitiling it down to 5.

Original Screenplay: 3/5 - This, just like Adapted Screenplay, was hard to get a feel for the consensus. At least I didn't screw it up too bad.

Final Score for the Big Categories: 28/40. Not bad at all.

If I feel like it, I'll post comments about the technical categories at a later date.

 

[Craig S]

And for comparison, here's how Dave Poland did:

4/5 - Picture
3/5 - Director (he backed off of Coppola for some reason)
4/5 - Actor
3/5 - Supporting Actor
3/5 - Actress
4/5 - Supporting Actress

21/30. Woo hoo!! We beat the pundit!!

 

[Kristian]

Here's how I did in the major categories:

Best Actor - 4/5
Best Supporting Actor - 3/5
Best Actress - 3/5
Best Supporting Actress - 4/5
Best Director - 4/5
Best Picture - 5/5
Best Adapted Screenplay - 4/5
Best Original Screenplay - 3/5

30 out of 40, not bad at all.

I'm very happy with the final list of Oscar noms. Several pleasant surprises and only a few notable omissions.

 

[Ray H]

Best Motion Picture Of The Year – 5/5
Achievement In Directing – 4/5
Performance By An Actor In A Leading Role – 4/5
Performance By An Actor In A Supporting Role – 4/5
Performance By An Actress In A Leading Role – 3/5
Performance By An Actress In A Supporting Role – 3/5
Screenplay Based On Material Previously Produced Or Published – 3/5
Screenplay Written Directly For The Screen – 3/5

Did pretty badly with screenplays and the Actress noms. :b

Though my list is coincidentally in order of the # I got right.

 

[Adam_S]

Best Actor 5/5
Best Supporting Actor 3/5 I did get wildcard Djoumon honsou but I went against the grain further counting on albert finney against Ken watanabe. No Sean Astin is very very sad, especially for Alec Baldwin to replace him (there's a screener nomination for you!)
Best Actress 4/5 No Jennifer Connelly surprises me, no Nicole Kidman doesn't-that'd have been three consecutive noms for her, in a year following a win of the biggest actress prize. Hurray for Keira Keisha though!
Best Supporting Actress 3/5 I was really rooting for Sarah Bolger, but it's good to see Patricia Clarkson get a nomination, but horrific to see Scarlett Johannson not nominated, I think maybe because a lot of people didn't see her as a supporting actress in the film? I hadn't seen Mystic River, so I went against the grain and thought that MR would be the big surprise non-nom in this, not LiT.
Best Animated Feature 3/3 this was the easiest prediction of all, and it's the easiest oscar winner prediction too.
Achievement in Art Direction 4/5 I almost went with the guild nom for Girl with a pearl earring but then went with my guy master and commander.
Achievement in Cinematography 1/5 WOW this was one category I got all five on last year. City of God surprises and I personally wasn't wowed by Seabiscuit, I almost put cold mountain but decided on a surprise nom for House of sand and fog. I guess no nom here is because of FOTR's win.
Achievement in Costume Design 2/5 I'm gettting killed in the technical area for following my gut instead of the guilds.
Achievement in Direction 4/5 - hurray for CIty of God, but I'm saddened at no Jim Sheridan.
Best Documentary Feature 3/5 - I almost put down Balseros as a random guess...
Achievement in Film Editing 2/5 - again with the technical awards, ouch, I suck. awesome nom for City of God
Achievement in Makeup 2/3 - shoulda gone with Pirates.
Best Foreign language film 1/5 well it was all semi-random guesses anyway on my part.
Best Score 4/5 That's more like it, I'd have loved to see JNHs score for Peter pan honored though :frowning:
Best Song 1/5 TWO songs from Cold Mountain? impressive, most impressive. Good to see love for Triplett's of Belleville. i was going to put in Eat at Joes from Mighty wind, but saw everyone else putting in the title song so I went with that, wrong either way but the nominated song is the better one anyway.
Best Motion Picture 4/5 - damn near got it right and almost predicted Master and Commander
Achievement in Sound 3/5 - the two I picked had better sound than the other ones nommed.
Sound Effects Editing 1/3 - LOTR shut out again! damn, well that's what they get for winning it last year
visual effects - 2/3 - I thought I'd picked M&C but I must have been on a kill bill thought process or something, stupid me.
Adapted Screenplay 4/5 GOood for City of God!
Original Screnplay 3/5 Good for Finding Nemo!

Final Counts:
59/97 (not counting animated/live action/docu shorts)
30/40 (the big eight)
23/30 (the big six)

Not Too bad, about on par in the top six with my predictions last year I believe.

Adam

 

[Dome Vongvises]

I had...I was too lazy.