From Cedia: Don't count Blu-Ray out yet.... (1 Viewer)

[Chris S]

Ron,

What films were they showing? Was it on a demo loop or were these fully pressed discs?

 

[Ronald Epstein]

Hey Chris!

Demo loops for most of the booth displays, but a few of
the high-end projector demos were off of actual Blu-Ray pressings.

 

[MarekM]

Hello Ronald,

those pressings, were from released movies, or some fututure releases ?

Marek

 

[Paul_Scott]

not surprised there were no big title announcments- at least not after Sony scaled back its launch estimates for the PS3. Why bother putting out a big title if only 50 or 60,000 copies will sell. They aren't here to cater to the faithful who will build and nurture the format to widespread adoption-Fox and Disney are in for the big score- so screw you, little niche format buyer, we don't need you, we'll have millions of PS3 owners...soon enough.

 

[Tim Glover]

From Ron's early CEDIA report, I was bracing for some huge news from Blu-Ray....?

 

[Dave Moritz]

Bluray is really going to have to step up to the plate and soon. Especially with Toshiba's gen2 HD-DVD players that will be 1080p and use hdmi 1.3. While I am still hoping to have a Sony Bluray player I am still going to look into it before droping the cash on the player. I am also waiting on some better VC-1 encoded titles to come out so I can start building a Bluray library. I am also thinking about a gen2 HD-DVD player to replace my current HD-A1. This mainly because I want to have a native 1080p HT system, one that I will not be upgrading for at least 5-7 years.

Keep up the great work Ronald Epstien all the information is much appreciated.

 

[Ronald Epstein]

I still have no idea how successful a launch Blu-Ray is going
to have.

The one thing that Blu-Ray has going for it over HD-DVD is
the amount of hardware manufacturers supporting it. Walking
around the show this past week you can see that just about
everyone was pushing Blu-Ray. Really, unless you walked outside
the convention center and across the street to the mobile setup,
it would be a bit difficult to see much HD-DVD on the floor (outside
of Toshiba's booth).

It was very interesting to learn that the second generation 1080p
capable Toshiba player is being set at a $1k pricepoint. This
certainly brings HD-DVD pricing in line with similar Blu-Ray hardware.

On the other hand, you certainly won't find any new Blu-Ray
players being offered for less than $1K. In fact, the Pioneer
Elite player and (I think) Panasonic player is being pushed above
the $1k mark. Please correct me if I am wrong on the Pana specs.

As long as Toshiba still offers a player for $500 (now selling
discounted for $400), and consumers don't mind the absence
of 1080p compliance, HD-DVD may still have a huge advantage
over Blu-Ray. For those of us who want 1080p, it seems the
playing field has now been leveled.

Additionally, we saw a very impressive demo of Fast &
Furious Tokyo Drift. It is the first of the next generation
of HD-DVD titles to offer incredible interactive content that can
be viewed without leaving the film. I saw none of this sort of
stuff being demonstrated at any of the Blu-Ray booths.

Also, while most of the Blu-Ray stuff I saw looked quite good
(mostly animation), there were some live-action material that
didn't look as good as HD-DVD. Fortunately, most of what I
saw looked awfully impressive including Fox's Kingdom of
Heaven which the studio was showing off clips of at its
Blu-Ray launch party.

It's so hard to determine at this point if one format will win,
both will coexist with each other, or both will go the way of
Betamax. Certainly, HD-DVD seems to have captured the
hearts of many early adopters across the Internet, but looking
at the amount of manufacturer support behind Blu-Ray you
begin to see a second coming. I think the overall lack of
manufacturer support is going to hurt HD-DVD in the long run.

 

[Tim Glover]

I agree Ron and even the B&Ms are pushing Blu-Ray. Best Buy told me they have Blu-Ray out front due to the upcoming PS3 even though their guy thinks HD-DVD looks better.

HD-DVD is really up against a HUGE obsticle. (s)...more manufacturers must come in -can't just be Toshiba. It won't survive even with a pretty good movie lineup so far.

What they really need is to find some way to get more units from other companies. If this can be achieved, the studios will follow. They really don't care (studios) they just want to make $$ on their films.

 

[ppltd]

A couple of problems I see with this.

1: Most video game systems are located in the owners bedroom (most are young teens or young adults. The use of the PS3 as a gaming machine is going to well outway it's use as a video player. I don't know many players that are going to give up their gaming time so the family can watch a movie. Multi-purpose entertainment systems have seldom worked out well.

2: Normally these are not set up in the 'home theater' or living area where most owners of HD have their equipment.

3: I do not see that purchasers will buy the PS3 for watching movies, rather than buying a stand alone. Not when they can get into the HD player market for less than 450.00.

4: It will be 6 to 9 months, and maybe more, before the PS3 hits the millions of installed base. This will be worse if the cell processor production and diodes shortages don't correct themselves soon.

As the HD-DVD is going to have some of the above problems (shortage of diodes), it doesn't bode well for that camp either. I think we are in for a long war over which system will survive. Hopefully both will. Only time will tell.

Thomas Eisenmann

 

[Jason Harbaugh]

This is actually one of those myths that just can't seem to get squashed. The average age of gamers now is 33 and has been playing games for 12 years. 69% of American heads of households play either pc or console games. The average age of the most frequent video game buyer is 40.

These systems aren't setup in kids bedrooms, they are as much a part of the family home entertainment system as the DVD player.

The portion of gamers that you are referring to actually only make up 31% of all gamers. For consoles, the number is higher, at 40% but still the minority. (data from ESA)

The unknown question is how many of those PS3 owners will purchase BD movies. An extremely low 5% would still put 50,000 BD purchasers for every million sold out there. Sony is still expecting(hoping) 2m by the end of the year. Even if they don't meet that, they will be pumping out more BD players than the HD-DVD group will. The only unknown is the Xbox addon and how well it sells.

But from a strictly numbers game, Sony is holding the cards and that is the reason why I've always felt/knew BD would win the war if it is ever won. I just got discouraged with the first run of BD movies. I was starting to think that the winning/popular format was going to be the one with the worst PQ. Thankfully it seems that they are finally starting to turn things around.

 

[Austan]

Thomas... you might be correct in all 4 points... but you need to consider these points also...

1. 500,000 PS3 in November and supposedly 1.5 million by End of Year vs an unconfirmed 50,000 HD DVD players currently.

2. It not a question of PS3 vs HD A1. Its a question of will PS3 owners buy Blu Ray movies? They already own a player, will they buy the SD DVD version of a movie or Blu Ray version?

3. Its also a battle of the mind... if every retail outlet you go to is pushing Blu Ray and almost every major CE manufacturer has a player (besides Toshiba), will it be thought of as the standard mainstream format?

Toshiba did a great job with HD DVD, they were able to get it to market first and the audio/video quality is top notch!!! That battle has been won, but this is a war. Blu Ray is amassing an army and its training (improving with VC1 software and 50gb discs) its forces for the Nov & Dec holiday battle.

 

[Shawn Perron]

Going by the last few generations of consoles, including the PS2 that had major production problems, it'll probably be 3 million or so in the US by May.

 

[Michael Osadciw]

I believe the strategy for the PS3 is to insert a few Blu-ray movies in the box. They'll come with the system, as well as with some flyer/insert that lets the owner know that the alternative to DVD movies is Blu-ray. It's a way to get the consumer interested/educated/excited.

Mike

 

[Dave H]

Good strategy, but hopefully they'll include the better mastered titles.

 

[ppltd]

Shawn, that is what I said 6 to 9 months to hit sales in the millions. May is 6 months after the initial release. As far as Sony's projections 1.0 to 1.5 million by the end of the year, I do not believe it is likely. They will be hard pressed to hit their 400k (US) release numbers for the opening sale day. Assuming that Cell productions goes up, Diodes become more available, the gamming public doesn't get feed up with another XBOX360 release fiasco maybe, but this is a lot of maybe's. Only time will tell.

BTW, I am an Xbox 360, HD DVD and soon to be BR owner (waiting for the Pioneer Elite) who will purchase a PS3 when they are available.

Thomas Eisenmann

 

[ppltd]

I agree that the Circuit Cities and Best Buys are pushing BR over HD. But these are not the make or break stores for the system, it is the Wal-Mart’s and Targets, who's sales force is trained to tell you what isle to look in, not the difference between BR and HD.

 

[Austan]

Sony will sell out every PS3 it can produce from now until 2008. The debate is not about HD-A1 vs PS3 as a HT center piece... It's about the how many of those PS3 owners will buy Blu Ray movies... Sony sold 8.2 million UMD movies at $30/each in 1 year. UMD a failure? sure... but look at those failing numbers... do you think 50,000 HD A1 owners have bought 1 million HD DVD movies? These numbers are all verifiable.

I understand this can be an emotional debate. Especially if you are invested. But I'm looking at the numbers. The number of CE Manufacture support... the number of PS3 that will be sold no matter what... the number of retail outlets support...

 

[dpippel]

The reason that Sony sold that many UMD movies is because of the their gimmick factor - they're on small, portable media for use in a small, portable media device. But despite the numbers, UMD *is* a failure. It's on its way out. Sony and it's partners certainly don't want to see Blu-ray go down the same road.

As for the PS3, here's my opinion. I know a couple of dozen people who own the PS2. Out of that number only 2 have ever used the machine to play a DVD and for both it was an experiment only. When they sit down to watch a DVD they use a DVD player, not their game console. I predict that the PS3 will suffer a similar fate and very few people who purchase it will use it to watch movies on Blu-ray disc. IMO laying a large chunk of the Blu-ray success strategy at the feet of the PS3 is a *colossal* mistake on Sony's part. Time will tell.

 

[Austan]

EXACTLY my point!!! PS3 owners will increase Blu Ray software sales...

 

[Shawn Perron]

ppltd, you seem to have bought into the myth that video game players are younger people with very little discretionary income. You couldn't be more wrong. Assuming you were 10 when the original Nintendo Entertainment System was released in 1985, you'd now be 36 years old. You have to remember that the longest playing and often most enthusiastic supporters are well into thier 30's now. Not only do these people have money to spend, but they grew up with computers and other technology. These people also grew up during the dawn of the Block Buster summer movies. The video game industry brings in over 10 billion dollars a year in the US, edging out even theatrical box office revenue. Obviously those with a lot of discretionary income are buying a lot of games or this number could be reached. It's not uncommon for older gamers to have collections of $50 games numbering in the 100s. You are also wrong if you think gamers do not care about audio and visual quality. "Eye Candy" as it's called has been driving the video game industry sales since before even the Sony Playstation came out in 1995. Of the many gamers I know in thier 30s, all of them have a HDTV and a decent audio setup for both games and movies. You'd really have to be part of this demographic and care about video games to really see this.

Also the PS3 has sold HDTVs to atleast 2 people I know of, so they can afford the $600 PS3 and also own a HDTV, and it hasn't even been released yet. On the video game forums I frequent, there are always requests for info on a good HDTV to purchase. Video gamers have thier own culture, and if you people aren't tuned into it then they really don't really understand it.