Fox Executive's prediction on Blu-ray! (1 Viewer)

[Paul Borges]

I think its a bad idea if the Fox executive is putting too many eggs in the PS3 basket. As of end of last year, there were about 11-12 million HD tvs in US homes. How much of the market is that? Anyways...the point is many will buy PS3 even if they don't have a HD TV cause its primarily seen as a game machine. Its called 'Play' station! How many will buy it and intend to watch BD movies? I'd like to see the market research on that. I'm pretty curious if anyone knows.

How many ordinary Joe people, not early adopters and videophiles, who will buy Playstation even know that it will support Blu-Ray and that they could get screwed if they get the one without the HDMI connection?

Will there be a shortage of PS3? It's possible as there were problems with the 360. Probably all the hardcore gamers will snatch them up first and place holds on them. I could envision that it won't be until sometime next year that a typical Joe can walk into Walmart and pick up a PS3.

BD could be one year behind HD by the time PS3 really starts rolling. And they'll have to play catchup. Can they? You have to expect that HD players will start to drop prices too and people may prefer to buy a stand alone player if its significantly cheaper than PS3.

I think BD has got to get cheaper players out now to compete with HD. And fix the problems they got right now. If FOX isn't worried, they should be. Maybe early adopters are the one critizising BD, but this is the internet age and the word on BLOGS gets around fast. If BD has a bad image, it could stick.

 

[Mark Zimmer]

Fox also put all its eggs in the DIVX basket. Didn't that work out well for them?

 

[Cees Alons]

If we multiply each studio with the amount of films they have in their vaults eligible for being released on a HR format, the picture of support for each of the formats from studios gets a bit different.

BTW, "weighing" a studio according to its ownership of filmrights isn't too strange, in light of Rob Walton's remark about the number of films potentially hitting the HR market being of importance to the acceptance of a format.

In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if a majority of all A- en B-films currently were "supporting" HD DVD.

Warner is the most important player in the field by far, in this respect. They already pledged to bring out movies in both formats. So even if several companies would be refusing to put their movies on a particular format, it would be of relatively little consequence. A majority of all A- en B-films would also be "supporting" BD, thanks to Warner!

Furthermore, in light of what happened with DivX, studios are known to switch in a wink, if they so choose (in their own interest).


Cees

 

[Gekkou]

Don't forget though that UMD only works with one small-screened device and is priced way too high. Blu-ray is a bona fide home theatre format, and the discs cost around the same as the competition.

 

[RobertR]

All I hear about the PS3 is that Sony is selling it at a big loss, and that they expect to make up for those losses by selling the games. That means each game will have to bring in a lot of revenue. That doesn't sound like they'll be cheap.

 

[PeterTHX]

Um, this has been true of most consoles for years. Sony took a big hit on the first couple years of PlayStation 2s, and Microsoft took a billion dollar bath on selling XBOXs. Only Nintendo was able to make a profit on the toy-like GameCube.

So the fact that Sony is once again selling PlayStation at a loss is par for the course and the retail prices for games are expected to be the same as the XBOX 360's: $59.99

Besides, Toshiba is selling their HD DVD players at a loss as well. They want sales and are willing to sacrifice a bit. Blu is profitable currently and Sony can afford to sell PS3s at a loss while making a profit on the BDP-S1 sales.

 

[DeeF]

I think Dunn's real point is well-taken, and I hadn't really considered it before (not this baldly, anyway). It doesn't matter which format has better quality -- the real winner here will be the one in more of the games. It does sound like Blu-Ray/Sony has the edge, even though the first BD movies/players have been less than stellar.

 

[Harminder]

Toshiba has already stated that they are not selling HD-DVD players at a loss and that they are in the business of making profit.

Can you confirm where it is stated that Blu-Ray has been profitable so far? Also I don't see how Sony can afford to sell PS3s at a loss when they just borrowed approx. $700 million to cover losses due to the PS3. They have to pay the loan off before they can start making a profit for themselves on the PS3.

Futhermore, Samsung will be receiving the majority share of the profits from the BDP-1000, not Sony since it is a Samsung branded Blu-Ray player.

 

[RobertR]

Hmmm. Two people with conflicting statements. Which is it?

 

[PeterTHX]

EA has stated that "next gen" games will be $59.99, and they mention the XBOX 360 and PlayStation 3 as the "next gen" in question (nothing about Wii).

 

[AaronSCH]

Personally, I made the decision to support HD DVD because of all the positive remarks I have read here and all over the internet. My personal experience has been exceptional and if that continues for HD DVD, it will win the format war. I go into many upper middle class homes for my line of business and I have yet to see a game system hooked up in any home theater area. The kids usually have the unit hooked up in the den or their bedrooms. In my opinion, the PS3 strategy is not a very good one. However, if the prices of Blu-Ray players fall and the kinks are worked out with image quality, it is conceivable if not probable that they could eventually prevail. I think Toshiba needs to get some other companies producing the HD DVD units to remain competitive. The success of either format will totally depend on more hardware in homes. Software sales will follow.

 

[David Ren]

Yes, but the next gen systems (X-Box 360 and PS3) are designed specifically for HD/DD5.1 and more people will hook them up to their main HTs to take advantage of that.

David

 

[Gekkou]

They don't conflict. He said it was expected, which is still speculation. It is however the best guess out of all the choices since it follows logically that Sony would price software competitively with Micosoft, otherwise they would barely stand a chance in the market.

And to add to what David said, the PS3 is not geared as a 'just for kids' piece of hardware. Sony is going out of it's way to promote the PS3 as more than just a toy. A huge percentage of adults even play games already.

 

[AaronSCH]

How are the folks gonna watch movies when the kids are zapping away playing games? Few people use the Playstation to play DVDs and I HIGHLY doubt that habits will change with the PS3. And they certainly aren't gonna allow the home theater to be the place where the kids gather with their friends to play that thing. Add to that the condition of the system. Most kids aren't exactly careful using their gaming systems. How are these $600 players gonna hold up with a gaming onslaught? Not very well I predict. From what I have read, the Blu-Ray Discs are much more susceptible to damage. The outside layer is thinner than the HD-DVD. What effect will a dirty player have on the quality of output? Non-gamers will not be buying a PS3, myself included. It's alot of wishful thinking.

 

[Gekkou]

Again, games are not just for kids. Adults make up a very large portion of all gamers (myself included). The PlayStation 3 is being promoted as more than a game console anyway.

The discs are also coated with Durabis, which at this point seems very resilient (demonstrations included rubbing a disc with steel wool and still having it in working order).

Sure there are kids who are rough with their game equipment, but it isn't exactly fair to say that every household will be in that situation. It's not like people play games 24/7 anyway.

It is a given that the first few shipments of PS3s will sell out. Many of those people will notice that their new piece of equipment plays BDs and may decide to give them a try, since they don't need to buy another $1000 player for it anymore.

 

[RobertR]

The claim is that loads of adults will buy the PS3 AND buy BR movies for it. I'd hate it if that happened. I don't want the gamer demographic determining the direction of a next gen movie format.

 

[Gekkou]

Well, I'm part of the gamer demographic and I do plan on buying movies on BD for it. It will be the most affordable Blu-ray player on the market and the first one in my household. I've been a gamer for years and over the past year or so I have been getting into home theatre equipment to enhance my gaming experience and, more importantly, my movie viewing experience. There are hundreds of millions of gamers out there, and I personally think it is a shrewd business move for Sony to tap into that.

 

[PeterTHX]

I'm a non-gamer. I don't have a PS2. I want an inexpensive, high quality BD player w SACD and HDMI 1.3...and I'm buying the PS3. I know a lot of other people who are doing the same.

 

[AaronSCH]

…Blu-ray's pits are not only tinier but also the disc's recording layer is much closer to the disc surface. Although the latter aspect is not discussed much, it has the potential to make the Blu-ray disc very sensitive to damage and scratches, which would be a huge drawback. One of the great strengths of current DVDs is that they are extremely rugged and resistant to damage from casual handling. (Have you ever noticed that the scratched and smudged surfaces of most rental DVDs play back perfectly?) The HD DVD, by contrast, would have the same resistance to damage and scratches as current DVDs, which makes it very attractive. -Alan Lofft, ecoustics.com

The "scratch-proof" TDK Durabis coating that was supposed to offset the more error-prone Blu-Ray is currently not being utilized. HD DVD doesn't need the same type of coating, because the plastic protecting the data is much thicker than BD. It's like regular DVD.

"Blu-ray moves the recording surface very close to the top layer of the disc, protected by just a very thin coating, and that makes maintaining "high reliability" of discs during the actual manufacturing process much more difficult. This factor is the key difference between the two formats, as HD-DVD, like traditional DVD, protects its data between two layers of protective plastic - above and below - thus making manufacturing of the discs much more reliable."

I am just wondering if Fox is banking on this so that people have to re-purchase discs they've already bought… because of damage. After all, they were supporters of DIVX weren't they?

 

[AaronSCH]

Amen. They won't.