2018 At The Boxoffice (1 Viewer)

[Wayne_j]

Spider-Man has an A+ cinemascore, it should have massive legs.

 

[Colin Jacobson]

Gonna be interesting to see how "Aquaman" does.

Complete anecdotal observation: when I saw "Spidey" IMAX 3D the other night, I went to the Thursday "preview" showing. Maybe 15 people attended.

I went to reserve a ticket for "Aquaman" IMAX 3D for Thursday and they'd already sold a good 100 tickets!

 

[Josh Steinberg]

I think there's an explanation for that other than popularity, though I think Aquaman was always going to open bigger.

Aquaman tickets in IMAX went onsale about a month ago; those ticket sales were widely publicized and moviegoers have been encouraged to purchase tickets through various email and social media ad campaigns, not to mention TV spots and trailers noting that tickets are now available.

On the other hand, Spidey wasn't originally announced as an IMAX release, and was only added to IMAX theaters the week before at the earliest - and some theaters didn't even get IMAX showtimes posted until a couple days before opening night. Spidey tickets had been onsale for about a month, but it wasn't known that it was getting an IMAX release until the last moment. I think a portion of the audience that might have opted for a reserved IMAX ticket had already made their plans before IMAX added the film. That's what happened to me. I would have seen this in IMAX if I had known it was getting an IMAX release in advance, but when it finally appeared in the listings the week of the show, I had already purchased non-IMAX tickets, couldn't make the IMAX showtimes, and didn't feel the need to jump through hoops to try to adjust plans when I had a decent plan already.

 

[Colin Jacobson]

I think there's an explanation for that other than popularity, though I think Aquaman was always going to open bigger.

Aquaman tickets in IMAX went onsale about a month ago; those ticket sales were widely publicized and moviegoers have been encouraged to purchase tickets through various email and social media ad campaigns, not to mention TV spots and trailers noting that tickets are now available.

On the other hand, Spidey wasn't originally announced as an IMAX release, and was only added to IMAX theaters the week before at the earliest - and some theaters didn't even get IMAX showtimes posted until a couple days before opening night. Spidey tickets had been onsale for about a month, but it wasn't known that it was getting an IMAX release until the last moment. I think a portion of the audience that might have opted for a reserved IMAX ticket had already made their plans before IMAX added the film. That's what happened to me. I would have seen this in IMAX if I had known it was getting an IMAX release in advance, but when it finally appeared in the listings the week of the show, I had already purchased non-IMAX tickets, couldn't make the IMAX showtimes, and didn't feel the need to jump through hoops to try to adjust plans when I had a decent plan already.

Well, I did say it was anecdotal. You didn't have to go all Dr. Statistician on me!

 

[Josh Steinberg]

But when else will I get to use this useless trivia??

 

[Adam Lenhardt]

Into the Spider-Verse only cost Sony $90 million, while Aquaman cost Warner Bros. $160 million. So it'll need to make $63 million to be as successful. The most recent tracking I've seen puts it right about at that number.

Aquaman is already doing crazy business internationally, though, so there's less pressure on the domestic box office.

 

[Tino]

Into the Spider-Verse only cost Sony $90 million, while Aquaman cost Warner Bros. $160 million. So it'll need to make $63 million to be as successful. The most recent tracking I've seen puts it right about at that number.

Aquaman is already doing crazy business internationally, though, so there's less pressure on the domestic box office.

If those numbers are correct it will take about $250 million for Spidey to break even.

It will take about $450 million for Aquaman to break even.

 

[Malcolm R]

As Adam noted, Aquaman already has over $260 million in the bank worldwide (about $190 million of that from China alone), so it's well on its way to profitability.

 

[Tino]

As Adam noted, Aquaman already has over $260 million in the bank worldwide (about $190 million of that from China alone), so it's well on its way to profitability.

Yup. Aquaman will definitely be profitable. Hopefully Spider-Man will too. Would love to see a sequel.

 

[Tino]

So it'll need to make $63 million to be as successful.

Not quite understanding this statement Adam.

 

[Adam Lenhardt]

Not quite understanding this statement Adam.

Aquaman had 178% of the production budget that Into the Spider-Verse had, so it needs to have 178% of the opening weekend that Into the Spider-Verse had to achieve an equivalent return on investment.

 

[Jake Lipson]

Hopefully Spider-Man will too. Would love to see a sequel.

Sony announced a week or two ago that they are already developing sequels and spinoffs for Spider-Verse. So, that is definitely their intention, as long as this film doesn't completely fall off the rails gross-wise. I think the word-of-mouth will help, but it wasn't surprising to me that the opening was on the lower end of expectations.

The family audience knows they're going to have an extended holiday break period coming up where they have time off to go to the movies, so lots of them probably thought it's fine to catch up with movies over the next couple of weeks, and didn't need to rush out on this one. The pre-Christmas period has had huge grosses over the last few years because Star Wars, but Spider-Verse just doesn't have the built-in urgency, so it's playing more of a long game by launching in this window. I will be much more concerned about Spider-Verse if for some reason it has a low gross after New Year's.

That being said, Aquaman is going to target the comic fanboy crowd and Mary Poppins is going to target families, plus Bumblebee should have at least some appeal to both of those audience segments as well. So Spider-Verse has great reviews and word-of-mouth in its favor, but is also going to face really intense and direct competition for the exact audience it wants starting tomorrow. We'll see how it holds up.

 

[Tino]

Aquaman had 178% of the production budget that Into the Spider-Verse had, so it needs to have 178% of the opening weekend that Into the Spider-Verse had to achieve an equivalent return on investment.

(Jules Pulp Fiction Voice) Check out the big brain on Adam.

 

[Tino]

Top 10


1 N Aquaman WB $67,400,000 - 4,125 - $16,339 $72,100,000 - 1
2 N Mary Poppins Returns BV $22,235,000 - 4,090 - $5,436 $31,049,671 - 1
3 N Bumblebee Par. $21,000,000 - 3,550 - $5,915 $21,000,000 $135 1
4 1 Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse Sony $16,700,000 -52.8% 3,813 - $4,380 $64,800,063 $90 2
5 2 The Mule WB $9,950,000 -43.2% 2,656 +68 $3,746 $35,653,465 $50 2
6 3 Dr. Seuss' The Grinch (2018) Uni. $8,180,000 -30.4% 2,780 -900 $2,942 $253,218,975 $75 7
7 N Second Act STX $6,501,000 - 2,607 - $2,494 $6,501,000 $16 1
8 4 Ralph Breaks the Internet BV $4,599,000 -50.4% 2,495 -1,080 $1,843 $162,093,930 $175 5
9 N Welcome to Marwen Uni. $2,358,000 - 1,911 - $1,234 $2,358,000 $39 1
10 17 Mary Queen of Scots Focus $2,240,000 +220.1% 795 +729 $2,818 $3,544,755 - 3
11 12 The Favourite FoxS $2,060,000 -2

Boy that’s a pretty soft opening for MPR. They better hope for some Greatest Showman legs.

 

[Jake Lipson]

Yes, but that's the 3-day opening. If you add in the money it made since Wednesday, Mary's 5-day opening was $31 million. It also makes sense, since Mary is a family title, if families are waiting to see it over the Christmas-to-New Year's period when people often take time off. I think they're playing the long game on this one and expect it to leg out well in the end. I think Disney will be concerned if it still has a relatively low gross after New Year's, but once we hit Christmas, every day at the box office plays as if it is a Saturday. So we'll see.

Also, this is mostly as expected considering what they are, but it's still interesting to note that Hailee Steinfeld has two films in the top four with Bumblebee and Into the Spider-Verse.

 

[Tino]

Yes, but that's the 3-day opening. If you add in the money it made since Wednesday, Mary's 5-day opening was $31 million. It also makes sense, since Mary is a family title, if families are waiting to see it over the Christmas-to-New Year's period when people often take time off. I think they're playing the long game on this one and expect it to leg out well in the end. I think Disney will be concerned if it still has a relatively low gross after New Year's, but once we hit Christmas, every day at the box office plays as if it is a Saturday. So we'll see.

Also, this is mostly as expected considering what they are, but it's still interesting to note that Hailee Steinfeld has two films in the top four with Bumblebee and Into the Spider-Verse.

I get all that of course. And Still in my opinion it’s a soft opening. I thought it would open much bigger. We’ll see.

 

[Tino]

By the way tracking for MPR was $70 million thru Christmas. So it will be well below that.

 

[Jake Lipson]

I get all that of course. And Still in my opinion it’s a soft opening. I thought it would open much bigger. We’ll see.

I saw Bumblebee this afternoon and it was sparsely attended. I didn't count exactly but it looked like there might have been 40 or so people scattered throughout the theater, most of which appeared to be families, including lots of kids.

I suspect that the family crowd is being split in multiple directions, and none of the various options are strong enough to be the default choice, so everybody is getting a piece of the pie but nobody's getting an abnormally large one. Aquaman on top I have no interest in, so I can't say whether families were crowding that one, but it does seem like Mary Poppins and Bumblebee bled into their respective opening audiences a bit more than perhaps the studios were expecting. And of course Spider-Verse as well as Ralph and Grinch are still factors as well.

Hopefully for all of these movies' sake, the Christmas to New Year's stretch will cause people to connect with more than one of them.

 

[Malcolm R]

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/christmas-box-office-aquaman-hits-106m-1171632

Warner Bros.' Aquaman unwrapped $22.1 million from 4,125 theaters Tuesday, one of the top showings ever for Christmas Day outside of the Star Wars pics and Avatar.

From Disney, Mary Poppins Returns stayed at No. 2 with $11.6 million from 4,090 cinemas for a seven-day total of $50.3 million (the musical opened last Wednesday). The sequel to the 1964 film stars Emily Blunt as the eponymous nanny.

Paramount's Bumblebee, hoping to revive the Transformers franchise, placed No. 3 with $8.9 million from 3,550 theaters for a five-day cume of $34.3 million. Hailee Steinfeld stars in the origin story.

Like Aquaman, Bumblebee and Mary Poppins Returns came in slightly behind prerelease tracking.

On Christmas Day, the marquee got even more crowded as Sony's Holmes & Watson, starring Will Ferrell and John C. Reilly, opened. The comedy placed No. 4 for the day with $6.4 million, ahead of expectations and despite a dismal D+ CinemaScore. Holmes & Watson, which wasn't screened in advance for critics, also sports a rare zero rating on Rotten Tomatoes (only 12 reviews are counted so far).

The film placed No. 4, followed by holdovers Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse and Clint Eastwood's The Mule, with an estimated $5.7 million and $4.9 million, respectively.

 

[Jake Lipson]

Okay, so Mary Poppins didn't get a large Christmas bump. Now it does look like the underperformance isn't just a result of people waiting until Christmas to see it. These numbers continue to suggest to me that Mary and Bumblebee are splitting family audiences more than expected, and Spider-Verse is way below them despite great word-of-mouth.

We all said for several months that this Christmas release calendar was really overcrowded. It seems like everybody is paying the price.