2018 At The Boxoffice (1 Viewer)

[Jake Lipson]

You hit the nail on the head, Wayne. Disney and Universal knew that the level of success with TFA and JW, respectively, was a lightning-in-a-bottle situation an never expected the sequels to be quite that large. The only people who made an issue of that are fanboys on the internet who have nothing better to do, and particularly tone-deaf analysts who smell clickbait every time a movie fails to break an all-time record.

TLJ became the highest-grossing film since TFA (until Black Panther came along) and was an unqualified success. Fallen Kingdom is similarly performing really well within the realistic expectations set for it and is making Universal a lot of money. So I'm sure they're fine with that.

 

[Adam Lenhardt]

Well Jurassic World-Fallen Kingdom is running about $177M down from what Jurassic World did. 17 days in JW made $500M. The sequel 'only' at 333M.

So, wheres the media hate and vile Where's the headlines? Sure remember quite a few when Last Jedi didn't make the $$ like Force Awakens.

I say that in jest to a degree. But it is interesting how we read nothing like that for the Jurassic films. But with Star Wars its fair game.

This is down to three things:

1. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom was critically panned, while The Last Jedi was well-reviewed. The reaction from both critics and audiences was lukewarm, so it's easy to explain the drop as being the result of a subpar movie. The Last Jedi was loved by critics and insanely polarizing among fans. Polarization tends to generate a lot more discussion than consensus.
2. Jurassic World was pretty much a fluke that far outperformed all previous entries in the series. By contrast, every Star Wars movie up until that point was among the highest grossing films of all time. Solo is the first one in the franchise not to crack the top 100. The expectations were just higher.
   
3. The Jurassic Park franchise is one of Universal's bigger ones, but it doesn't have anywhere near the cultural status of Star Wars. People just care more about all things Star Wars.

I was never expecting TLJ to do as well as TFA. Like, with Jurassic World, there was a long period of time between films in the franchise so fans were unusually excited to see TFA and JW. A sequel to those massive hits coming only 2-3 years after shouldn't be expected to do as well.

Not just a long period of time between films, but the first time Harrison Ford, Mark Hamill, and Carrie Fisher were reprising arguably their most iconic roles since Return of the Jedi. That is huge.

 

[Jake Lipson]

Also, I haven't seen the recent ones but the Jurassic series doesn't seem anywhere near as densely plotted as Star Wars. So there may not be as much urgency to see the follow-up to see what happens next to the characters, which would explain a dropoff between films if people were simply satisfied by the dino fix they got last time. Did anyone spend the last few years wondering about who Chris Pratt's character's parents are? I'm guessing probably not.

Not just a long period of time between films, but the first time Harrison Ford, Mark Hamill, and Carrie Fisher were reprising arguably their most iconic roles since Return of the Jedi. That is huge.

Yeah, of the three of them, only Ford has other roles that might qualify as more iconic, and I don't think they quite get there. The prequels count, obviously, but in a way they don't because the characters and status of the universe they were creating were so different from that depicted in the original trilogy. The Force Awakens was a sequel people had been wanting for 32 years, and a phenomenon of that nature only comes around once in a great while. To match it, Star Wars would have to take another decades-long hiatus and then suddenly return with Daisy Ridley and company in 2051.

 

[Malcolm R]

I don't think Universal is concerned in any way about JW. It's already over a Billion at the worldwide box office with more to come. It was also never going to match or exceed the first JW film as there were years of pent-up demand since JP3 waiting for another dino adventure, and it finally delivered on the promise of a theme park with dinos.

It's a sad thing that we've fallen into this trap where every sequel is supposed to far and away surpass the prior film at the box office. Ant-Man 2 improved upon the prior film by over 30%, but is being met with reactions of "moderate debut" or "met low end of expectations" since it's not another $100 million Marvel debut. It's a fine debut for a lesser-known supporting character.

There was a time (probably the 80's) when sequels were considered successful if they grossed 70% of the prior film. Diminishing returns were natural and expected. Now if a sequel doesn't greatly exceed the prior film, it's somehow seen as a disappointment, even if it's grossing hundreds of millions and is profitable overall.

 

[Colin Jacobson]

1. Jurassic World was pretty much a fluke that far outperformed all previous entries in the series. .

Only if you discount inflation. "JP" was a much bigger hit if you factor in ticket prices - it was huge in 1993 in a way "JW" wasn't in 2015...

 

[Wayne_j]

To the best of my knowledge Jurassic Park is still Spielberg's top grossing film.

I just looked and it is at just over $400 million domestic. adjusted for inflation it is third behind E.T. and Jaws.

Rank Title (click to view) Studio Adjusted Gross Unadjusted Gross Release
1 E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial Uni. $1,299,385,700 $435,110,554 6/11/82
2 Jaws Uni. $1,173,202,000 $260,000,000 6/20/75
3 Jurassic Park Uni. $839,255,900 $402,453,882 6/11/93
4 Raiders of the Lost Ark Par. $811,058,000 $248,159,971 6/12/81
5 Close Encounters of the Third Kind Col. $512,252,300 $135,189,114 11/16/77
6 Close Encounters of the Third Kind (40th Anniversary) Sony $512,252,300 $135,189,114 9/1/17
7 Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom Par. $490,360,600 $179,870,271 5/23/84
8 The Lost World: Jurassic Park Uni. $457,175,200 $229,086,679 5/23/97
9 Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade Par. $452,655,100 $197,171,806 5/24/89
10 Saving Private Ryan DW $419,043,200 $216,540,909 7/24/98

 

[Malcolm R]

To the best of my knowledge Jurassic Park is still Spielberg's top grossing film.

In straight dollars, JP ($402m) is second to E.T. ($435m).

 

[Hanson]

It's a sad thing that we've fallen into this trap where every sequel is supposed to far and away surpass the prior film at the box office. Ant-Man 2 improved upon the prior film by over 30%, but is being met with reactions of "moderate debut" or "met low end of expectations" since it's not another $100 million Marvel debut. It's a fine debut for a lesser-known supporting character.

Actually, the reason why AMATW is considered an under-performer is that it missed it's low end estimate of $80 million. It also weakened over the weekend and slipped under the Friday projections (based on Thu-Fri, it was tracking to hit $87 million). It was never expected to approach $100 million (although I'm sure Disney was crossing their fingers). Similarly, TLJ was tracking to open around $220 million and make $740 million domestically. They hit the opening, but it never had the momentum to power past $700 million and missed projections by over $100 million. They built in the fact that it was not going to rival or surpass TFA. In contrast, JW:FK was projected to open around $130-$150 domestically. It opened at $148, which is near the top end. That's why it's considered a success. It's also cleaning up internationally, particularly in China, which is where TLJ flopped hard.

Marvel is indeed a rare bird that releases sequels that do better than their first outings. They may be unique in that it's the norm for this to happen.

 

[Adam Lenhardt]

Ant-Man And The Wasp Plunges Record 75% For $8.4M Friday

 

[Malcolm R]

Ant-Man And The Wasp Plunges Record 75% For $8.4M Friday

The headline sounds bad, but it's comparable to some other Marvel sequels:

Ant-Man and the Wasp earned $8.4 million on its second Friday of release, dropping a record-high (for the MCU) 75% from its $33.8m opening day. That’s [not] good, but it’s also not that far from the 73% drop of Spider-Man: Homecoming and the 74% drops of Avengers: Age of Ultron and Captain America: Civil War. The MCU movies tend to take big Friday-to-Friday dives. Even The Winter Soldier dropped 68% on its second Friday).

 

[Josh Steinberg]

As going to the movies continues to transition to a “everybody needs to see this as soon as possible before it disappears” business these drop offs will continue like this.

 

[Jake Lipson]

This is non-scientific, but when I went today for Leave No Trace, it seemed like everyone was buying tickets for Ant-Man and the Wasp or Incredibles 2. I didn't hear anyone buying for Hotel Transylvania or Skyscraper.

I was pleasantly surprised to find Leave No Trace decently full, with most of the stadium seating rows to the back of me occupied throughout, and some other people in the closer rows. It was in one of the smaller auditoriums but it seemed to attract a decent crowd. There were more people there for it in its sole auditorium than there usually are when a big blockbuster opens on four or five screens.

 

[Tino]

Top 11 courtesy BOM

1 N Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation Sony $44,100,000 - 4,267 - $10,335 $45,376,000 $80 1
2 1 Ant-Man and the Wasp BV $28,840,000 -62.0% 4,206 - $6,857 $132,825,225 - 2
3 N Skyscraper Uni. $25,485,000 - 3,782 - $6,738 $25,485,000 $125 1
4 3 Incredibles 2 BV $16,220,000 -42.9% 3,705 -408 $4,378 $535,818,492 - 5
5 2 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom Uni. $15,515,000 -45.8% 3,695 -654 $4,199 $363,297,215 $170 4
6 4 The First Purge Uni. $9,130,000 -47.5% 3,038 +7 $3,005 $49,509,970 $13 2
7 16 Sorry to Bother You Annapurna $4,258,000 +485.5% 805 +789 $5,289 $5,322,952 - 2
8 5 Sicario: Day of the Soldado Sony $3,850,000 -49.5% 2,006 -1,049 $1,919 $43,200,345 $35 3
9 6 Uncle Drew LG/S $3,225,000 -51.2% 1,702 -1,040 $1,895 $36,692,040 - 3
10 7 Ocean's 8 WB $2,910,000 -42.6% 1,618 -986 $1,799 $132,255,936 $70 6
11 9 Won't You Be My Neighbor? Focus $1,885,000 -26.7%

 

[Jake Lipson]

Ant-Man and the Wasp had a steeper drop than they deserved, but hopefully things level off from here.

Sicario with $43 million total is close to outgrossing the $46 million domestic final of the first film.

And Leave No Trace is at #14 with over $1 million from only 311 theaters too. I'm glad to see that expanding well since I thought it was just terrific.

 

[Tino]

Ant Man And The Wasp may buzz it’s way to $200 million. Not bad at all.

Skyscraper will probably top out at about $65 million. But will be better WW especially in China.

 

[Jake Lipson]

Yeah, Ant-Man and the Wasp will top out higher than the first film for sure and I still think it has a chance of outgrossing Solo. Disney will be pleased with its results.

Skyscraper just isn't competing well with so many other popular titles in the marketplace right now. I suspect Skyscraper will get severely dinged by Mission Impossible in a couple weeks too.

Oh well, at least Universal has Jurassic World in the top 5 still and should do well with Mamma Mia! next week.

 

[Sean Bryan]

Ant-Man and The Wasp’s second weekend drop of 62% is about the same as that of Spider-Man: Homecoming last July, which went on to have really good legs.

The second weekend drops for movies like this in the summer months tend to be bigger than those in the school months because more of those tickets are spread out over weekdays. Ant-Man and the Wasp may not wind up with legs as good as Homecoming, but hopefully work of mouth can help it maintain a similar degree of saying power.

 

[Wayne_j]

Deadline predicting $41 million opening weekend for Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!

 

[Adam Lenhardt]

Ant-Man and The Wasp’s second weekend drop of 62% is about the same as that of Spider-Man: Homecoming last July, which went on to have really good legs.

It bodes well for the movie that the extremely front-loaded opening day hasn't been indicative of a rapid drop off overall. The Saturday-to-Saturday drop and the Sunday-to-Sunday drop had to be relatively modest to make up for the steep Friday-to-Friday drop.

 

[Colin Jacobson]

Deadline predicting $41 million opening weekend for Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!

Is that being viewed as good, bad or about right?

I have a sense of what "big blockbusters" like Avengers are "supposed to make" opening weekend but no idea what expectations are for this one...