TerryRL
Senior HTF Member
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Weekend Estimates
#1 "Borat" $26.3 million
#2 "The Santa Clause 3: The Escape Clause" $20.0 million
#3 "Flushed Away" $19.1 million
#4 "Saw III" $15.5 million ($60.0 million) -54%
#5 "The Departed" $8.0 million ($102.2 million) -18%
#6 "The Prestige" $7.7 million ($39.4 million) -18%
#7 "Flags of Our Fathers" $4.5 million ($26.6 million) -29%
#8 "Man of the Year" $3.8 million ($34.0 million) -19%
#9 "Open Season" $3.1 million ($81.3 million) -47%
#10 "The Queen" $3.0 million ($10.0 million) +57%
Despite the bigger than expected debut of "Borat", this weekend was down 3% to this frame last year when "Chicken Little" debuted with $40 million. Compared to 2004, business was down a steeper 15% when "The Incredibles" got off to its stellar $70.4 million start. 2006's year-to-date gross now stands at $7.627 billion, which is up 5% compared to this point last year ($7.226 billion), but still down 2% to 2004's $7.791 billion. Admissions are still running only slightly ahead of last years totals (1.16 billion vs. 2005's 1.13 billion), but still trail 2004 by a significant margin (1.25 billion vs. 1.16 billion).
This weekend saw Fox's comedy "Borat" blow away industry expectations and earn the biggest opening weekend for a film not playing in at least 1,000 theaters, besting former record-holder "Fahrenheit 9/11", which debuted with $23.9 million from only 868 locations (giving it a per-theater average of $27,558). The comedy pulled in $26.3 million, giving it a colossal $31,511 per-theater average from its modest 837 locations. On the list of all-time greatest opening weekends, the $31,511 average bests everything on the list except for Pirates 2 ($32,817) and the first Spidey flick ($31,768). Amazing.
Next weekend Fox plans to have "Borat" playing in at least 2,500 locations, so look for it to repeat as the nation's top box office draw. The film cost only $18 million to make and star Sasha Baron Cohen has just vaulted himself onto Hollywood's "A-List". Unlike what happened with last summer's "Snakes on a Plane", "Borat" used the internet (as well as the ingenious marketing from Cohen who has stayed in character for all of his public appearances) fully to its advantage. The last few weeks have seen the buzz on the movie grow by leaps and bounds. Do not be surprised if this one ultimately passes the century mark.
Disney's "The Santa Clause 3: The Escape Clause" took the #2 position this weekend as it pulled in about $20 million, giving it a per-theater average of $5,783 from its mammoth 3,458 locations. The film was expected to have little difficulty in topping the box office this weekend, so many are seeing its debut as a disappointment. Like with the previous two installments, this one will probably have strong enough legs to get to the century mark. At the end of the day though, this will likely be the swan song to the series.
DreamWorks' "Flushed Away" also pulled in slightly disappointing numbers as it earned just over $19 million, giving it an average of $5,152 from its staggering 3,707 locations. Paramount (who now owns DreamWorks) is hoping that the film has a leggy run well into the new year. We'll see what happens.
Lionsgate's "Saw III" took a 54% hit in business this weekend, which is a good hold for films in this genre, and has so far tallied just over $60 million. This one is on pace to top out in the neighborhood of $90 million, which would make it the biggest hit of the franchise, besting the $87.0 million haul of "Saw II". "Saw IV" hits theaters next October.
WB's "The Departed" keeps on rolling as it lost only 18% of its business from last weekend. This week also saw the film pass the century mark, bringing its total to $102.2 million. Tomorrow will see the Oscar hopeful move past the $102.6 million haul of "The Aviator" to become the biggest hit in director Martin Scorsese's long career. This one looks like it'll earn no less than $130 million before its all said and done. If it receives significant Oscar nods in January than it could end up flirting with a domestic haul of more than $150 million.
Disney's "The Prestige" also continues to show sturdy legs as it too lost a meager 18% of business from last week. The film has so far earned $39.4 million and looks headed for a final mark in the area of $60-$70 million. Putting it on course to end its run in the same neighborhood as Nolan's 2002 hit "Insomnia" ($67.3 million).
Paramount's "Flags of Our Fathers" took a very modest 29% dip this weekend and has so far earned a disappointing $26.6 million. Much more was expected from the $90 million epic and this could hurt its Oscar chances. The film is now expected to top out in the area of $40 million.
Universal's "Man of the Year" has now earned $34 million. Sony's "Open Season" continues its solid play as its tally hit $81 million. Miramax's "The Queen" made its debut in the top ten this weekend as it saw a very impressive 57% bump in business. The film expanded to 235 more theaters, bringing its count to 387 locations. The Oscar hopeful's average of $7,777 was the second best of the top ten.
In limited play, "Volver" (from Sony Pictures Classics) opened in 5 theaters. The film, which is generating strong Oscar buzz for star Penelope Cruz, earned $202K, giving it an impressive average of $40,400. Paramount Vantage's "Babel" entered 28 more theaters, bringing its total to 35. The Oscar hopeful earned another $918K, bringing its cumulative total to $1.4 million. The film had yet another fantastic per-theater average, this week to the tune of $26,228. The same can't be said for either Sony's "Running with Scissors" or New Line's "Little Children". Both films have struggled a bit in limited play.
Next weekend will see Sony's "Stranger Than Fiction", Fox's "A Good Year", Rogue Pictures' "The Return", and MGM's "Harsh Times" all hit theaters. The general consensus is that "Borat" will hold on to the top spot as it expands to more than 2,000 more theaters. Look for both "Stranger Than Fiction" and "A Good Year" to have strong showings though. I have no idea how strongly either "The Return" or "Harsh Times" will play. Still, it should all be about "Borat" next week.
#1 "Borat" $26.3 million
#2 "The Santa Clause 3: The Escape Clause" $20.0 million
#3 "Flushed Away" $19.1 million
#4 "Saw III" $15.5 million ($60.0 million) -54%
#5 "The Departed" $8.0 million ($102.2 million) -18%
#6 "The Prestige" $7.7 million ($39.4 million) -18%
#7 "Flags of Our Fathers" $4.5 million ($26.6 million) -29%
#8 "Man of the Year" $3.8 million ($34.0 million) -19%
#9 "Open Season" $3.1 million ($81.3 million) -47%
#10 "The Queen" $3.0 million ($10.0 million) +57%
Despite the bigger than expected debut of "Borat", this weekend was down 3% to this frame last year when "Chicken Little" debuted with $40 million. Compared to 2004, business was down a steeper 15% when "The Incredibles" got off to its stellar $70.4 million start. 2006's year-to-date gross now stands at $7.627 billion, which is up 5% compared to this point last year ($7.226 billion), but still down 2% to 2004's $7.791 billion. Admissions are still running only slightly ahead of last years totals (1.16 billion vs. 2005's 1.13 billion), but still trail 2004 by a significant margin (1.25 billion vs. 1.16 billion).
This weekend saw Fox's comedy "Borat" blow away industry expectations and earn the biggest opening weekend for a film not playing in at least 1,000 theaters, besting former record-holder "Fahrenheit 9/11", which debuted with $23.9 million from only 868 locations (giving it a per-theater average of $27,558). The comedy pulled in $26.3 million, giving it a colossal $31,511 per-theater average from its modest 837 locations. On the list of all-time greatest opening weekends, the $31,511 average bests everything on the list except for Pirates 2 ($32,817) and the first Spidey flick ($31,768). Amazing.
Next weekend Fox plans to have "Borat" playing in at least 2,500 locations, so look for it to repeat as the nation's top box office draw. The film cost only $18 million to make and star Sasha Baron Cohen has just vaulted himself onto Hollywood's "A-List". Unlike what happened with last summer's "Snakes on a Plane", "Borat" used the internet (as well as the ingenious marketing from Cohen who has stayed in character for all of his public appearances) fully to its advantage. The last few weeks have seen the buzz on the movie grow by leaps and bounds. Do not be surprised if this one ultimately passes the century mark.
Disney's "The Santa Clause 3: The Escape Clause" took the #2 position this weekend as it pulled in about $20 million, giving it a per-theater average of $5,783 from its mammoth 3,458 locations. The film was expected to have little difficulty in topping the box office this weekend, so many are seeing its debut as a disappointment. Like with the previous two installments, this one will probably have strong enough legs to get to the century mark. At the end of the day though, this will likely be the swan song to the series.
DreamWorks' "Flushed Away" also pulled in slightly disappointing numbers as it earned just over $19 million, giving it an average of $5,152 from its staggering 3,707 locations. Paramount (who now owns DreamWorks) is hoping that the film has a leggy run well into the new year. We'll see what happens.
Lionsgate's "Saw III" took a 54% hit in business this weekend, which is a good hold for films in this genre, and has so far tallied just over $60 million. This one is on pace to top out in the neighborhood of $90 million, which would make it the biggest hit of the franchise, besting the $87.0 million haul of "Saw II". "Saw IV" hits theaters next October.
WB's "The Departed" keeps on rolling as it lost only 18% of its business from last weekend. This week also saw the film pass the century mark, bringing its total to $102.2 million. Tomorrow will see the Oscar hopeful move past the $102.6 million haul of "The Aviator" to become the biggest hit in director Martin Scorsese's long career. This one looks like it'll earn no less than $130 million before its all said and done. If it receives significant Oscar nods in January than it could end up flirting with a domestic haul of more than $150 million.
Disney's "The Prestige" also continues to show sturdy legs as it too lost a meager 18% of business from last week. The film has so far earned $39.4 million and looks headed for a final mark in the area of $60-$70 million. Putting it on course to end its run in the same neighborhood as Nolan's 2002 hit "Insomnia" ($67.3 million).
Paramount's "Flags of Our Fathers" took a very modest 29% dip this weekend and has so far earned a disappointing $26.6 million. Much more was expected from the $90 million epic and this could hurt its Oscar chances. The film is now expected to top out in the area of $40 million.
Universal's "Man of the Year" has now earned $34 million. Sony's "Open Season" continues its solid play as its tally hit $81 million. Miramax's "The Queen" made its debut in the top ten this weekend as it saw a very impressive 57% bump in business. The film expanded to 235 more theaters, bringing its count to 387 locations. The Oscar hopeful's average of $7,777 was the second best of the top ten.
In limited play, "Volver" (from Sony Pictures Classics) opened in 5 theaters. The film, which is generating strong Oscar buzz for star Penelope Cruz, earned $202K, giving it an impressive average of $40,400. Paramount Vantage's "Babel" entered 28 more theaters, bringing its total to 35. The Oscar hopeful earned another $918K, bringing its cumulative total to $1.4 million. The film had yet another fantastic per-theater average, this week to the tune of $26,228. The same can't be said for either Sony's "Running with Scissors" or New Line's "Little Children". Both films have struggled a bit in limited play.
Next weekend will see Sony's "Stranger Than Fiction", Fox's "A Good Year", Rogue Pictures' "The Return", and MGM's "Harsh Times" all hit theaters. The general consensus is that "Borat" will hold on to the top spot as it expands to more than 2,000 more theaters. Look for both "Stranger Than Fiction" and "A Good Year" to have strong showings though. I have no idea how strongly either "The Return" or "Harsh Times" will play. Still, it should all be about "Borat" next week.
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