Lew Crippen
Senior HTF Member
- Joined
- May 19, 2002
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Time for some prognostication, as the beginning of The Champions Trophy approaches.
There are nominally 12 teams in the tournament, divided into four pools. But each pool has a sacrificial lamb included in the mix, with no realistic chance of winning even one match, much less advancing, so in reality there are only eight teams to be considered.
Pool A:
Australia
New Zealand
United States (no experience in Competitions of this nature—even if they had the players—and they don’t)
Pool B:
Bangladesh (ranked last in the world in both forms of cricket. And not only last—dead last)
South Africa
West Indies
Pool C:
India
Kenya (not a test side and ranked second last in ODI competition. Cricket in Kenya is undergoing some turmoil due to a lack of funds and national political unrest.)
Pakistan
Pool D:
England
Sri Lanka
Zimbabwe (Only ranked above Bangladesh and Kenya in one-day cricket—and the team is in a tailspin. Most of the top players have been suspended by their national board due to political considerations)
The format is a single round robin in each pool, with one team advancing. In Pool A, Australia should manage to beat New Zealand, but one-day cricket is much like baseball in that a hot player at the right time can help an inferior team to beat a better one. And the Kiwis are a very good team. Australia should probably beat them 3 or 4 times out of 5—but which day will it be?
South Africa used to be the second best team at both forms of cricket. They have fallen into a tailspin, especially in one-day cricket, getting hidings from the Kiwis and Sri Lankens of late. The West Indies may have fallen on even harder times, being pretty much beaten by everyone—most recently England. South Africa should prevail.
India and Pakistan are traditional arch-rivals, cricket being the national sport in each country. Both have very good teams, but India will miss Sachin Tendulkar generally considered to be the premiere batsman in the world. Pakistan has won the last couple of important one-day matches against India. I pick India in a minor upset.
England and Sri Lanka are two very fine teams on the rise, although England is probably playing better test cricket than the one-day form right now. They have the current hottest player. Sri Lanka has the best spin bowler in the world, and England are notoriously poor players of spin (Americans can think of a junk-ball pitcher here). England is playing at home, which should be an advantage, but I’ll pick Sri Lanka on current form (they just won the Asia cup).
The second round is the Pool A & D winners and Pool B against Pool C. In the latter pairing either India or Pakistan should handle either of the teams from Pool B, so I’ll go with India again.
Australia has a bit of an edge against Sri Lanka, beating them in both types of cricket a couple of months ago—so I’ll pick them again, but I’d not be surprised at any outcome.
This leaves Australia playing India for the championship. India has a dismal record in tournament finals—they manage to get to the finals, but always seem to lose. Just as Australia always seems to figure out a way to win. Australia in a close one (but again, any outcome would not be a surprise).
There are nominally 12 teams in the tournament, divided into four pools. But each pool has a sacrificial lamb included in the mix, with no realistic chance of winning even one match, much less advancing, so in reality there are only eight teams to be considered.
Pool A:
Australia
New Zealand
United States (no experience in Competitions of this nature—even if they had the players—and they don’t)
Pool B:
Bangladesh (ranked last in the world in both forms of cricket. And not only last—dead last)
South Africa
West Indies
Pool C:
India
Kenya (not a test side and ranked second last in ODI competition. Cricket in Kenya is undergoing some turmoil due to a lack of funds and national political unrest.)
Pakistan
Pool D:
England
Sri Lanka
Zimbabwe (Only ranked above Bangladesh and Kenya in one-day cricket—and the team is in a tailspin. Most of the top players have been suspended by their national board due to political considerations)
The format is a single round robin in each pool, with one team advancing. In Pool A, Australia should manage to beat New Zealand, but one-day cricket is much like baseball in that a hot player at the right time can help an inferior team to beat a better one. And the Kiwis are a very good team. Australia should probably beat them 3 or 4 times out of 5—but which day will it be?
South Africa used to be the second best team at both forms of cricket. They have fallen into a tailspin, especially in one-day cricket, getting hidings from the Kiwis and Sri Lankens of late. The West Indies may have fallen on even harder times, being pretty much beaten by everyone—most recently England. South Africa should prevail.
India and Pakistan are traditional arch-rivals, cricket being the national sport in each country. Both have very good teams, but India will miss Sachin Tendulkar generally considered to be the premiere batsman in the world. Pakistan has won the last couple of important one-day matches against India. I pick India in a minor upset.
England and Sri Lanka are two very fine teams on the rise, although England is probably playing better test cricket than the one-day form right now. They have the current hottest player. Sri Lanka has the best spin bowler in the world, and England are notoriously poor players of spin (Americans can think of a junk-ball pitcher here). England is playing at home, which should be an advantage, but I’ll pick Sri Lanka on current form (they just won the Asia cup).
The second round is the Pool A & D winners and Pool B against Pool C. In the latter pairing either India or Pakistan should handle either of the teams from Pool B, so I’ll go with India again.
Australia has a bit of an edge against Sri Lanka, beating them in both types of cricket a couple of months ago—so I’ll pick them again, but I’d not be surprised at any outcome.
This leaves Australia playing India for the championship. India has a dismal record in tournament finals—they manage to get to the finals, but always seem to lose. Just as Australia always seems to figure out a way to win. Australia in a close one (but again, any outcome would not be a surprise).