Oscar Watch 2005 - pre-awards discussion (1 Viewer)

[Quentin]

They pushed it on Tuesday, I think. I had heard it was because they just weren't going to be done with the final cut; but, if they are releasing it to L.A. and NY on the 25th, they'll have it done.

 

[Adam_S]

I presume LA and NY will have the premieres in 70 as well. It'd be wonderful to catch in the Dome or at Graumann's. I was really busy Tuesday, so no wonder I didn't catch that headline.

 

[John Kilduff]

Although I haven't seen it yet, "Sin City" should probably get some nominations in the technical categories. Some say that Mickey Rourke gave a really great performance in that movie...Could there be a Supporting Actor nod in his future?

I think "The Aristocrats" should get a nomination for Best Documentary.

Stephen Colbert (Or is it Steve Carrell? I get them confused) seems like he's on track to getting a Best Actor nod for "The 40 Year Old Virgin". Critics have really gone wild for that movie.

Sincerely,

John Kilduff...

Kim Basinger once said that kissing Mickey Rourke was like kissing an ashtray.

 

[ChrisBEA]

I think Sin City has a shot at VFX and Charlie and the Chocolate Factory could be nominated for score.

 

[ChristopherBlig]

Sin City should be a strong contender in many categories (Best Directors, Best Visuals, Sound, Supporting Actor for Mickey Rourke, even best Picture IT WAS THAT GOOD)

I think a film I had seen at Tribeca (a few films actually) should've gotten distribution deals for a better shot for the end of the year such as The Ax (Costa Gavras' film)and Antibodies (great German thriller that puts recent serial killer flicks all to hell)

I have hopes for Episode 3 and Batman

and as for documentaries, had seen great ones this year such as Show Business, Z Channel: A Magnificent Obsession (hope it's eligible), and Special Thanks To Roy London.

2046 should be a solid foreign film contender but The Ax should still try to secure a spot by the end of the year unless it wants to dominate 2006.

Maybe Scorsese's Dylan documentary may have a shot, little chance at the Oscar for once (it almost worked for Spike Lee)

anyway, that's my take

 

[ThomasC]

I doubt it. Even if it was nominated, I highly doubt it would win.

 

[Ray H]

It's Carrell and I'd love to see the movie get an original screenplay nod if it has that kind of support.

 

[Adam_S]

sadly Sin City doesn't match the academy's demographics, I doubt it'll even get cinematography, they didn't nominate Collateral last year, though you never know.

 

[Steve Christou]

Was it? Maybe in some alternate universe where films like Sin City, Catwoman, Batman Begins, Fantastic Four etc are serious contenders for the big awards yeah but not mercifully in this one.

Methinks Revenge of the Sith & War of the Worlds are sure bets for the techie award noms so far.

And looks like Russell 'anger management' Crowe is a shoo-in for Best Actor noms but may have botched his chances of actually winning after the 'phone rage' incident..

 

[Craig S]

Here's my early thoughts, by film:

The Constant Gardener

I'll repeat here what I said in the discussion thread - at least 8 nominations are in store for this great film:

Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor (Ralph Fiennes)
Best Actress (Rachel Weisz)
Best Supporting Actor (Bill Nighy)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Cinematography
Best Editing

All deserved. The movie's that good. Right now (and yes, it's early), it's the clear front-runner.

Cinderalla Man

At this point I consider CM to be the 2nd best film of the year (behind TCG), but I just don't know if it has any momentum at all after underperforming at the box office. And no, that's not fair. Also, all the major players (Howard, Crowe, Zellweger) have won in recent years, so there's just no urgency to reward any of them. If some of the upcoming contenders disappoint it might make some noise (a la Seabiscuit), but right now it's not looking good. One exception - Paul Giamatti is a lock for Supporting Actor, and probably the frontrunner to win. He IS overdue for Academy recognition.

Crash

Could be there. There is a small but vocal minority that is very critical of this one. I liked it myself (current #4 on my Top Ten of 2005), but I understand the criticisms that it's stocked with stereotypes and entirely too dependent on coincidence. Ultimately, I think that, like CM, it depends on how the other contenders play.

Sin City

Number 3 on my list so far, but c'mon, does anyone really expect anything other than technical noms for this one??

That's it for the films I've seen. Some notes on those yet to come:

Good Night, And Good Luck

Dave Poland says this a a very good film, but not quite good enough to break into the Oscar elite. I'm really looking forward to it, as I loved Clooney's Confessions Of A Dangerous Mind and I think he showed great potential as a director. Perhaps a nod for the superb actor David Straitharn in the lead role.

Rent

No way. Bad buzz on this all around. Broadway's darling a decade ago, it feels dated already. The trailer just lays there. Chris Columbus gets no respect. The contending musical this year will be...

The Producers

Early reviews have been very positive. Could be the feel-good nominee.

All The Kings Men

Seems to be garnering a lot of buzz though I don't think it's been seen.

Capote

Finally, a nomination for Philip Seymour Hoffman seems to be in the cards.

Walk The Line

Could surprise. Poland's seen it twice, and he says the second time it played better. He talked to director James Mangold who said he made some changes to make it seem less Ray-like. That could bode well. Phoenix & Witherspoon seem like shoo-ins for noms.

Narnia, Harry Potter, King Kong

Hollywood got the fantasy monkey off its back with RotK, and that'll be it for a few years. Only technical noms for these three.

Jarhead

Trailer looks great. Could play well in the current political climate.

The New World

Malick is always a threat. No real buzz on this one yet, however.

Munich

Steven Spielberg in a serious mode is always a force to be reckoned with.

Match Point

Said to be Woody's best in years. Could be a player.

Memoirs Of A Geisha

Will this amazing cast of Asian stars play in Hollywood?? Recognition for these great actors is overdue.

Oliver Twist

Polanski & a classic tale. Could get lost in the crowd.

Pride & Prejudice

Another high-class Jane Austin adaptation. There's talk that Focus is going to give this one the big Oscar push over TCG, which is incomprehensible to me. We'll see.

Elizabethtown

Cameron Crowe is overdue some love from AMPAS. If this is good (and early buzz is promising) it could be his awards breakthrough. Here's hoping.

Brokeback Mountain

The trailer looks great, and early reviews are positive. Said to be Ang Lee's best since Sense & Sensibility. But will gay cowboys play in middle America (even if they're not eating pudding)???

Going out on a limb, here's my early picks for Best Picture:

All The Kings Men
The Constant Gardener
Elizabethtown
Munich
The Producers

 

[Quentin]

Forgot all about MUNICH. I wonder if Spielberg will pull one out this time? Good chance.

 

[Nathan V]

a few very random, very unfocused opinions and thoughts-

I really hope Good night... and The New World recieve nominations, on the grounds that they appear to both be brilliant. However, remember how Clooney's Confessions mysteriously got the bigtime shaft from both the academy and the box office. I personally thought it was great, and that Clloney has a surprisingly skilled directorial hand. What a ballsy move, releasing a b&w film as a follow-up. I have no idea how the academy will receive this.
New World is absolutely guaranteed a cinematography nom, the trailer is astounding, but I have a feeling that the major wins will go to films of more mainstream quality- Walk the Line, Munich, etc. However, the fact that this film is about America and its beginnings will probably help it. Remember that Thin Red line got 7 big noms, even despite the juggernaut that was Saving Private Ryan. My only trepidation about this film is that Horner is scoring.

I have to say that this year's crop of upcoming releases looks very strong. I have no doubts about the high quality of Good night, New World, Munich, All the King's Men, and others. Constant Gardener is a masterpiece, the best so far, and is more than deserving of acting, writing, directing, shooting, and editing noms. And yes, I think Produceers will replace Rent as the potential musical nom. Walk the Line may take heat for being too much like Ray- OR it could benefit from positive comparisons to Ray.

Geisha could go either way. Marshall is the last director I would pair with the source material. I felt Chicago was a very average picture. Also, much of the brilliance of the book lies in the author's (who is a young white american male) use of the language to emulate the way an older japanese woman would speak english. The analogies and phrases and sentence structure of the book is quite incredible, and of course none of this will translate cinematically. In other words, the form of the book is what makes it brilliant, rather than its content. (Not that the content is boring, it isn't). It's like turning a Tony Scott film (main reason to see film: style) into a book. Half of the reason to see the movie isn't even there anymore. That said, Geisha has a serious techinical crew: John Williams, shooter Dion "Michael Mann" Beebe, and editor Pietro "JFK, Ridley Scott" Scalia. Then again, Akiva Goldsman is writing. Who knows what will come of this.

I also do not think Cinderella man will get hardly any noms; it made substantially less money at the BO than Seabiscuit, which broke $100. CM did not. Giamatti will hopefully have something going on next year. Man, does this guy get screwed over.

Any noms for Sin City will come as a surprise. I don't think Crash will get anything for some reason. I'm not sure why.

Hoffman finally has a nom in the bag. He can't not get it for Capote. Everyone loves this guy. The definitive 'character actor.' Penn and Fiennes should be locks as well.

Did Crowe WRITE Elizabethtown? If so, I'm there.

Everyone WANTS Woody to bounce back; all he has do to is release a strong film. This could be his year.

I think it's important to take a look at which big studios are releasing what, so we know where the marketing campaigns are coming from. This could clear up possibilities like Oliver Twist. Let's also try to separate the "critical darlings" from the "oscar favorites." These two factors seem to be what make ealry oscar talk non-substantative. At the moment I am too lazy/busy to research which studios are backing what; hopefully there's someone out there who wants to; I think it would go a long way in making this thread more worthwhile.

Gylenhall might get in the spotlight with two very strong roles. Jarhead should do well with the critics.

BTW, I saw a screening of Andrew 'Gattaca' Niccol's "Lord of War," starring Nic Cage, Jared Leto, Ethan Hawke, and Ian Holm. It's about illegal arms dealing from the 1980s up to the present; it is outstanding. Works as a personal drama, political film, and, in parts, comedy. Surprisingly light tone, considering its subject matter. I encourage all to see it. I'll post a detailed review shortly.

Regards, and apologies for the meandering post,
Nathan

 

[Joel C]

He's never made a movie he didn't write; even Vanilla Sky was his own adaptation of the original film.

 

[Kevin Grey]

The 'Rent' trailer looked horrible to me. Just awful.

I'm not sold on 'The New World' as a shoe-in yet. Reaction to the 'The Thin Red Line' was very mixed and I think the large number of nominations it received were primarily due to Malick's long absence. Everybody *wanted* to nominate Malick and his film. I don't thint that's the case this year. That's not to say that 'The New World' doesn't have a chance- it has a great one of course. But I think reaction is going to have to be a helluva lot more positive this time around.

'Crash' I definitely see some love for, even if its just screenwriting and a few supporting nods. Though I think they might have erred in releasing the DVD a little too early. A release later in the fall would have put the buzz much closer to voting season.

'Cinderella Man', on the other hand, I'm not feeling at all. Maybe a DVD release could turn it around but I'm skeptical.

'Munich' is an obvious contender but I'm guessing that it will be a while before anyone sees it since it has such an abbreviated production schedule.

I think 'Narnia' is going to have an uphill battle. After the LOTR dominance recently I think 'Narnia' is going to have to surpass the quality of any of the three LOTR movies in the mind of most (a tall order). It's chances will be significantly better if a lot of the current speculated front runners end up underwhelming. All of the above applies to 'King Kong' too.

'Jarhead' has obvious potential but it has a thin line to walk. It clearly has to make a statement in order to be effective in the minds of critics and the academy. But if that statement is too strong then it could risk alienating a large portion of academy voters. The trailer is giving off a similar vibe to 'The Three Kings' which was a critical darling but largely ignored by the academy IIRC.

I loved 'The Constant Gardner' and would love to see directing, acting, supporting actress, and cinematography nods but I fear it may be releasing too early to be remembered in a few months.

 

[Adam_S]

iirc Poland didn't see Finding Neverland as oscar caliber either, so it doesn't worry me too much if GN,GL didn't work for him, I think the trailer certainly looks more BP material than any of the other fall front runners with trailers. And this doesn't have wierd stamped on it like Confessions of a Dangerous Mind did.

 

[Quentin]

The thing with GN, GL is that it is solid, but really short and really basic. Finding Neverland just feels bigger and is far more emotional...it's about 15+ minutes longer too.

I've already pretty much forgotten completely about GN, GL. But, it is solid...I just don't see it as an award winner.

 

[Seth Paxton]

I like the chance of Geisha and The New World early on. Great directors who have outstanding visual sensibilities. Put some solid actors and a decent script in their hands and they are 90% there.


And a political oriented film, modern or retro could play big with voters too. So Jarhead, Munich, All the Kings Men, and Good Night, and Good Luck could all be dialed in.

Munich gives you the terrorism topic, Jewish sympathy (plays well with voters for obvious reasons), and Spielberg.

All the Kings Men is a former winner and beloved original, so it comes in with automatic support if its in the park of the original.

Good Night is a powerful topic too, again especially with Oscar voters.

So that's my 6 for 5 spots

Memoirs of a Geisha
The New World
All the King's Men
Munich
Jarhead
Good Night, and Good Luck


I guess I need to follow the buzz on Constant Gardner too then. It could be an even tougher year for a pre-season film to breakthrough than it was last year where non of the BP noms were out of season (going by mid to late October as the very earliest to really consider the start of the season).

 

[Adam_S]

Well Seth's list is probably likelier than mine, at this point you can only really guess based on the oscar 'worthy' elements each project has running for it. Here's my list of what I think are the top fifteen likely frontrunners for best picture noms (and therefore are all on my must watch in theatres list for the fall).

The Constant Gardener
Capote
Oliver Twist
Elizabethtown
Good Night and Good Luck
Jarhead
Pride and Prejudice
Walk the Line
All the King's Men
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion the Witch and the Wardrobe
King Kong
Memoirs of a Geisha
Munich
The New World
The Producers

with wildcards being
Rent
Mrs. Henderson Presents
In Her Shoes
Match Point
Family Stone

Added in october but definite contenders
Brokeback Mountain
Syriana

 

[Adam_S]

The first professional and the first negative review (all the aicn reviews have been positive) for Elizabethtown is in, Dave Poland apparently didn't think too much of the film, but the writing in the review itself is damned good. Poland is often spot on with many genres and his industry analysis, but I mostly disagree with him on oscar contending films such as Sideways, Aviator, Closer, Finding Neverland, Ray etc... On the other hand, my sense that Elizabethtown wasn't a strong Best Picture contender have been strengthened by the review--I just don't see it having the academy appeal and Orlando Bloom seems like a weak leading man to carry the movie, though a few nominations such as script and suppporting actress wouldn't be surprising.

Dave also rereviewed Walk the Line from Toronto--it's the third time he's written about it and the second time he's reviewed it.
As of now, This is the one film I think is closest to a lock for a Best Picture nomination, everything else is still at a very unseen stage, for the most part.

And Brokeback Mountain won the Golden Lion at Venice. For whatever bizarre reason, I think this may kill its chances for a Best Picture nom--sorta a why should we pick something because it's pol-cor good for us backlash? Like Elizabethtown, I just don't see this film as having quite the necessary appeal for the Academy.

 

[Quentin]

I never saw much chance for Brokeback doing much for the Academy. Bad news for Elizabethtown. There is a bad buzz coming out of a lot of areas. Looks like Crowe just didn't do it this time.