Official 90th Oscar Nominations Discussion Thread (1 Viewer)

[Tino]

Three Billboards pretty much swept the Baftas last night. It’s pretty much now the front runner to win the BP Oscar in two weeks.

Guillermo won Best Director and ditto for him to with that Oscar too.

 

[Matt Hough]

It looked like all the winners in the principal categories of the BAFTAs last night are the people and the movie that have been frontrunners for the Oscars for the past month. No real surprises or upsets that I could see.

 

[benbess]

Three Billboards pretty much swept the Baftas last night. It’s pretty much now the front runner to win the BP Oscar in two weeks.

Guillermo won Best Director and ditto for him to with that Oscar too.

Maybe. Since Three Billboards is more or less a British fantasy/nightmare of middle America it's not a surprise it would appeal to them. BAFTA even called it a "British film," which seems accurate. Will it work for the Academy too? Maybe yes maybe no....

From The Hollywood Reporter:

"....Can we deduce anything about the likely results at the 90th Oscars, which will take place in Hollywood two weeks from today, from the results of the U.K.'s equivalent ceremony?

Perhaps. The memberships of both BAFTA and the Academy number around 7,000. Roughly 500 people belong to both groups, meaning BAFTA's picks may reflect the preferences of seven percent of the Academy's, a healthy sample size. And, since the final round of Oscar voting only begins Tuesday (and extends through 5 p.m. PT on Feb. 27), BAFTA's picks could conceivably sway other Academy members to vote differently.

However, despite that sizable overlap and timing, there isn't a great track record of BAFTA winners repeating at the Oscars. Indeed, at the 17 previous BAFTA ceremonies since the BAFTAs moved in front of the Oscars on the calendar in 2001, only seven best film BAFTA winners went on to win the best picture Oscar...."

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/r...rds-just-reclaim-oscars-pole-position-1085988

 

[Mark Booth]

I'm getting carried away with decorations for our Oscar Night. We picked up a bunch of wall/hanging decorations at Party City today. I wanted to do some red carpet treatment but the paper/plastic runners that Party City carries just looks too cheap and reviews (Amazon) say it tears really easily. So, ended up ordering two real carpet runners (indoor/outdoor carpeting) in bright red from Amazon. A 20 foot length to lead to the front door and a 15 foot length to lead down the hallway to the garage theater.

Now I'm sitting here considering some gold stanchions with red velvet rope.

As I said, carried away.

Mark

 

[PMF]

Personally, the most interesting category for this year's Oscar race will be for Best Cinematography.
It's down to "Blade Runner 2049" vs. "Dunkirk".
Roger Deakins vs. Hoyte van Hoytema.
14 nominations (0 wins) vs. 1 nomination (current).
Pay off the debt vs. well, whatever one truly believes was the best.

 

[Tino]

I would go with Dunkirk.

 

[Mark Booth]

I think Roger Deakins’s long drought will be over on March 4.

Mark

 

[Jake Lipson]

I think Roger Deakins’s long drought will be over on March 4.

Let's hope so. Here's to that.

Hoyte van Hoytema dd great work on Dunkirk, but he will be nominated again later, because he will do more great work. Deakins will of course, too, but he has been overlooked long enough and his work on this particular film is one of the highlights of his career full of highlights. I think it's his time.

 

[Worth]

I think Deakins will get it this time around. Dunkirk looks great, but 90% of it is outdoors using mostly natural light.

 

[Tino]

The wife and I are also having our yearly Oscar Party. Very small with about 10 people but I give out gift cards to who predicts the winners and the wife gives out Swag bags to all the ladies.

Always a fun time.

 

[Josh Steinberg]

I think Deakins will get it this time around. Dunkirk looks great, but 90% of it is outdoors using mostly natural light.

In Dunkirk's favor, they used a large format camera system that everyone else in Hollywood is afraid to even go near. Nolan and his cinematographers continue to innovate on what a film can look like and what the IMAX format can be. It should be an automatic win for that. As it should have been every previous time Nolan has made an IMAX film.

 

[Jake Lipson]

In Dunkirk's favor, they used a large format camera system that everyone else in Hollywood is afraid to even go near. Nolan and his cinematographers continue to innovate on what a film can look like and what the IMAX format can be. It should be an automatic win for that. As it should have been every previous time Nolan has made an IMAX film.

I agree that Nolan's innovations should be celebrated, but I wouldn't go so far as to say that every single time they use IMAX cameras, it should be automatic. That devalues a lot of other great work being done by others simply because Nolan's tech is different.

 

[Josh Steinberg]

Not because it's different - but because he's asking so much more of his crew than anyone else is, so when they succeed, they achieve more than anyone else.

 

[Jake Lipson]

Switching gears here: I mentioned over in the software forum that Amazon is currently showing a March 6 release date for Lady Bird, even though I haven't seen a press release yet.

If it holds, it seems like March 6 was chosen in order to street the film immediately after hypothetical Oscar wins on March 4. This may be a smart move -- but I'm beginning to feel like Lady Bird may get shut out. I would love to be wrong, because I loved Lady Bird and would love to see it recognized. But at the moment, if I had to make a prediction, it would be:

Best Actress: Frances McDormand
Supporting Actress: Alison Janey
Director: Guillermo del Toro
Original Screenplay: Jordan Peele

If these four do go this way, the only award Lady Bird has left is Best Picture. I can't think of any film in Oscar history that won *only* Best Picture, without another win to accompany it. So that seems unlikely to happen in this case.

McDormand and Janey had, for lack of a better word, "louder" performances. They were great, and I don't intend to take anything away from their work with that remark. But being subtle and restrained is hard, and I think the Academy has a propensity to acknowledge the louder, flashier work.

We'll see what happens.

 

[Jake Lipson]

Not because it's different - but because he's asking so much more of his crew than anyone else is, so when they succeed, they achieve more than anyone else.

That's fair, but I don't agree it should be the case every single time. This year I think Blade Runner was the most incredible achievement in that category that I've seen, regardless of the fact that it was not IMAX (although I didn't like Dunkirk, but admit the cinematography was terrific.)

 

[Josh Steinberg]

I loved Blade Runner 2049 and thought it looked gorgeous.

But to play devil's advocate. Deakins shot the movie digitally, and immediately knew on set whether or not they got the shot or needed another take. He then used a digital intermediate, which allows for heavy tweaking of the imagery.

Hoyte shot on film from a remote location without the benefit of everyday dailies and without a DI. Not only did he have to capture it all there in person, but the production had to proceed with each day under the assumption that he did get it all, without being able to say for sure immediately. It's a physically and mentally more demanding task in my view.

 

[Hollywoodaholic]

Switching gears here: I mentioned over in the software forum that Amazon is currently showing a March 6 release date for Lady Bird, even though I haven't seen a press release yet.

If it holds, it seems like March 6 was chosen in order to street the film immediately after hypothetical Oscar wins on March 4. This may be a smart move -- but I'm beginning to feel like Lady Bird may get shut out. I would love to be wrong, because I loved Lady Bird and would love to see it recognized. But at the moment, if I had to make a prediction, it would be:

Best Actress: Frances McDormand
Supporting Actress: Alison Janey
Director: Guillermo del Toro
Original Screenplay: Jordan Peele

If these four do go this way, the only award Lady Bird has left is Best Picture. I can't think of any film in Oscar history that won *only* Best Picture, without another win to accompany it. So that seems unlikely to happen in this case.

We'll see what happens.

I still believe if Lady Bird wins anything, it could sneak through Best Director for Gerwig. It's just that year.

 

[bujaki]

Loud: McDormand.
Subtle: Hawkins
Loud: Janney
Subtle: Metcalf
Loud: Oldman
Subtle: Chalamet
I prefer subtle.

 

[Jake Lipson]

I still believe if Lady Bird wins anything, it could sneak through Best Director for Gerwig. It's just that year.

I would be happy if she won it, but GDT has been dominant this year in that category, and he made a really visionary film. It's easier for me to see them awarding GDT rather than Shape of Water itself with the top prize. Again, we'll see.

My favorite film of the year is Phantom Thread, but a win for it would seem highly unlikely, so I'd be really happy if somehow Lady Bird and Shape of Water and Get Out split the top categories, with one getting Picture, one Director and one Screenplay. It seems like all of them should be acknowledged in some way. It also speaks in some way to the frivolity of naming one film Best Picture, since they're all so great and so varied from each other that it's difficult to recognize just one.

(Of course, if I were voting for Screenplay I'd probably give it to The Big Sick, but that's not likely to happen either since we can tell the Academy is much fonder of the other film with more nominations.)

I prefer subtle.

Yes -- I tend to agree with you -- but what does the Academy prefer?

Also, I know that Saorsie Ronan will eventually be nominated again, because she is going to continue to work in interesting and varied films. But I've got to say that out of those nominees, I personally would give her the win this year. It's not hard to imagine that Lady Bird will remain a highlight of her career. I hope this doesn't happen for several decades to come, but whenever she passes away, Lady Bird feels like one of the performances that would be highlighted in the in memoriam reel for her. It's just that outstanding and something that she will be remembered for and linked to for ages. Conversely, I doubt that out of her impressive body of work, the eventual in memoriam for Meryl Strep will choose to spotlight The Post.

 

[Matt Hough]

I think Lady Bird's best shot is for screenplay, and I think Greta will win for that over Get Out. Just a feeling, but I don't think they'll give her Best Director despite the current Hollywood atmosphere.