Disney+ Mulan (2020) (1 Viewer)

[SamT]

'Mulan' Release Pushed Back Amid Coronavirus Pandemic

 

[Jake Lipson]

Yeah, Mulan and everything else, apparently. Is anyone surprised at this point?

 

[joshEH]

Bloodshot and Diesel are gonna ride this out!

 

[Jake Lipson]

Bloodshot opened tonight. It's probably too late to cancel the release of something that is already screening. But that doesn't mean people will go to see it.

My arthouse is opening an indie movie tomorrow that I really wanted to see and was looking forward to leaving my house for. Under normal circumstances, I would absolutely go. But now I'm not going to do that, despite my interest in the movie.

I take no pleasure in saying this, but theatrical moviegoing is going to grind to a halt. This should boost usage of Netflix, Prime and Disney+ though.

 

[Jake Lipson]

The original Mulan is this week's Honest Trailer, originally timed to arrive a little in advance of the remake and now arriving well in advance of the remake. But here it is.

 

[Jake Lipson]

Disney announced today that Mulan has been rescheduled for release on July 24.

This pushes Jungle Cruise (the previous occupant of the July 24 slot) back a year to July 30, 2021.

I feel like July 24 might be overly optimistic and they might have to delay it again, but we'll see what happens. At least by announcing Mulan will be there, they've put the other studios on notice to avoid that date in case the release can happen.

 

[TravisR]

Disney announced today that Mulan has been rescheduled for release on July 24.

This pushes Jungle Cruise (the previous occupant of the July 24 slot) back a year to July 30, 2021.

I feel like July 24 might be overly optimistic and they might have to delay it again, but we'll see what happens. At least by announcing Mulan will be there, they've put the other studios on notice to avoid that date in case the release can happen.

It might not happen in July but I think Disney is going to use Mulan as their first movie out of the gate whenever the theaters reopen.

 

[Jake Lipson]

It might not happen in July but I think Disney is going to use Mulan as their first movie out of the gate whenever the theaters reopen.

What's interesting is that Disney has yet to officially delay Soul, which was dated for June 19 a long time ago and remains there. They appear to be unwilling to move it for right now. If theaters are open by then (which is a big if), they seem to want that one to be the first one back. I would love for it to be safe to go back out in June, but I'm skeptical that that will be the case, so they might have to move it whether they want to or not.

But I absolutely agree that Mulan will be the first of the delayed movies that will resurface. That makes a lot of sense because it is completely locked and sitting on the shelf, and had already been heavily marketed in advance of the shutdown, so awareness is high. Plus, of course, it's a remake so has a built-in audience of fans who already know what Mulan is. If Soul is actually going to stick to June, they'll have to be very aggressive about marketing that in a very short span of time, and it's a new concept, which we know can sometimes be more difficult to sell.

 

[TravisR]

What's interesting is that Disney has yet to officially delay Soul, which was dated for June 19 a long time ago and remains there. They appear to be unwilling to move it for right now. If theaters are open by then (which is a big if), they seem to want that one to be the first one back. I would love for it to be safe to go back out in June, but I'm skeptical that that will be the case, so they might have to move it whether they want to or not.

I figure that Disney corporate has basically moved Soul but they're just waiting to officially announce it. Maybe they're hanging on to the date in the incredibly unlikely event that this somehow ends by then. I guess keeping the date doesn't really matter as long as they don't start spending money on ads.

 

[Jake Lipson]

Some Wall Street analyst believes Disney may move Mulan off the theatrical calendar into streaming:

Disney Won’t Be Able To “Jam People” On Prices At Parks, May “Kill” ‘Mulan’ Theatrical As Digital Boost – Analyst

Disney faces a long slump at its theme parks and could ditch a theatrical run for "Mulan," Wall Street analyst Michael Nathanson says.

deadline.com

I really don't see this as being very likely. While I would agree that a July 24 release date is very questionable at this point, I still think Disney would be much more likely to push the film into 2021 than to go straight to streaming with it. It cost too much to make for it to be profitable going straight to VOD or Disney+. Artemis Fowl going to Disney+ allowed them to avoid negative headlines because that one was likely to bomb anyway, but they obviously believe in Mulan, and I would be extremely surprised if they don't stick with a theatrical release plan for this one at some point. I hope so, anyway, even if it's not soon.

 

[Josh Steinberg]

At some point these companies need revenue. This would provide some. At a certain point it’s not a question of whether it could make more with a traditional release in normal circumstances. It’s a question of the company needing cash flow today, whether that’s from a PVOD release or whether it’s from putting it on D+ to lure in new subscribers while giving current ones incentive to keep their memberships active. And the way tax and accounting laws are written, they can take a write down or get a credit that covers the difference between what they projected the film making in a traditional release cycle vs what they got doing it this way.

As inconceivable as it may sound, Disney can go out of business. These are moves of necessity.

 

[Sam Favate]

As inconceivable as it may sound, Disney can go out of business. These are moves of necessity.

The bigger concern, if you ask me, is Disney being in a weakened cash position and having its stock price tumble so that a takeover becomes a real possibility. There has been a lot of speculation that Apple would want to buy the company. Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that.

BTW, another way Disney could make some money right now? Sell some freaking blu-rays! Waiting on the Mandalorian and several Marvel shows.

 

[Jake Lipson]

Deadline indicates Disney is considering moving Mulan again, which isn't much of a surprise. The article says that a Christmas release could be a possibility.

Is Disney’s ‘Mulan’ Moving Off July 24?

It would not be a shocker if Disney moves Mulan, the first event movie after exhibition's COVID-19 shutdown, off its July 24 release date.

deadline.com

If I were in charge, what I would do is shift Mulan to Thanksgiving where Soul is, and push Soul to June 2021, which is currently occupied by an untitled/unannounced Pixar film that could just be bumped back one slot on Pixar's slate. Mostly this would be my preference because if one of these has to come out this year, I wouldn't mind missing Mulan in theaters (much.) But I would really be very sad if I had to miss Soul, because I've never missed a Pixar film in theaters before. But of course Disney has no reason to ask me what I would do, so we'll just see what happens.

 

[Wayne_j]

with the recent surge in cases moving any movie sounds like a good idea.

 

[TravisR]

with the recent surge in cases moving any movie sounds like a good idea.

Yeah, even leaving aside the potential health issues, it seems like any movie's earnings could be quite seriously damaged. And we're not talking about like "Oh man, I missed the Criterion sale at Barnes And Noble! Now I have to pay $30 for Beyond The Valley Of The Dolls on Blu-ray.". These movies seem likely to miss out on tens of millions of dollars just due to limited seating capacity.

 

[Jake Lipson]

These movies seem likely to miss out on tens of millions of dollars just due to limited seating capacity.

For me, it's not even the seating capacity. When I went to the terrible remake of Aladdin last summer on its opening night, there were probably 30 people there in the whole theater, and that was well before the virus or social distancing were a thing. I'm sure I documented it in the thread if I wanted to go back and look, but it was not a large number. The only movies that ever sell out at my local multiplex are opening nights of Avengers and Star Wars. So even if things were normal, I could probably find a screening of Mulan here the doesn't have a whole lot of people in it.

I think it's going to come down to people not being willing to return at this point in time. Even if they're at 25% capacity, I just do not feel like it will be safe to go to see a movie -- any movie -- at this juncture. The bigger issue, I think, is that in order for them to get to 25% capacity, people will have to want to go. Some people might, but I would like to think that most people would think twice right now. No studio wants to open something and then find out that they've got a bunch of empty theaters because no one felt safe to show up.

 

[Jason_V]

For me, it's not even the seating capacity. When I went to the terrible remake of Aladdin last summer on its opening night, there were probably 30 people there in the whole theater, and that was well before the virus or social distancing were a thing. I'm sure I documented it in the thread if I wanted to go back and look, but it was not a large number. The only movies that ever sell out at my local multiplex are opening nights of Avengers and Star Wars. So even if things were normal, I could probably find a screening of Mulan here the doesn't have a whole lot of people in it.

I know your opinion of Aladdin, and I respect it. But a lot of someone's across the world saw the movie. It made over a billion dollars worldwide.

That being said, just like I've said in the Tenet thread, if Mulan comes out as scheduled in just about a month, I'll be there opening night. If it gets pushed to later in the year, I'll be there. Bottom line: when theaters open again, I'll be there,

 

[Worth]

Ignore.

 

[David Weicker]

What I don’t understand is how they actually get revenue from streaming. If they put it on Disney+, it doesn’t create additional dollars.

If there are a million subscribers before its released, and a million subscribers after its released, where does the money come from?

If the total revenue doesn’t change, but they say that Mulan’s piece is X million, doesn’t that mean that some other title just lost X million?

 

[Jake Lipson]

If there are a million subscribers before its released, and a million subscribers after its released, where does the money come from?

In that case, they would be hoping that Mulan brings in additional subscribers and in your hypothetical, it wouldn't be doing that. But it would also be keeping the current subscribers happy with new content so that the subscribers they already have don't unsubscribe.

In the case of Artemis Fowl, which they did unload to Disney+ instead of saving for a future theatrical run, they probably knew it wasn't going to make very much money and unloaded it to save themselves the additional costs associated with promoting and distributing a theatrical release. Obviously, they would prefer to give Mulan a theatrical release and currently intend to do that.