Disney+ Mulan (2020) (1 Viewer)

[Colin Jacobson]

In that case, they would be hoping that Mulan brings in additional subscribers and in your hypothetical, it wouldn't be doing that. But it would also be keeping the current subscribers happy with new content so that the subscribers they already have don't unsubscribe.

Seems like they'd need a ridiculously high # of new subscribers to compensate for the budget and lost box office, and I just can't imagine that'd happen.

Is there any evidence that any of the streaming services have ever enjoyed large upticks in subscriptions that clearly stem from one specific property?

Feels like people join for the broader picture - ie, a wide array of programming options - and not just for one...

 

[Jake Lipson]

With regard to Disney+ specifically, I know people who have joined specifically for Hamilton, which is arriving next week. I've also heard reports of people signing up last November and then cancelling when The Mandelorian ended for the season. Disney+ in particular, with its $6.99/month price point, is inexpensive enough that you could easily join for just one thing and feel like you got your money's worth. That's less than the price of one movie ticket in most places.

I subscribed to HBO last summer specifically for Big Little Lies and then cancelled after that season was over.

Obviously, these services would like to make long-term customers out of all subscribers, but if not, they'll take people's money any way they can get it.

Another question that has to be weighing on the minds of exhibitors, though: if Mulan does move its release date again, Tenet is the only blockbuster remaining for the summer. (I'm not counting that Russell Crowe road rage movie because it feels like no one wants to see that.). Would it really be worth the effort for theaters to open if Tenet is the only big new title that would be available for them to screen? I mean, sure, it will have pretty much all the screens it needs, but still.

 

[Tino]

But a lot of someone's across the world saw the movie. It made over a billion dollars worldwide.

Which as we know, is no indicator of quality!

(Full disclosure. I also hated the Aladdin remake).

 

[Wayne_j]

I didn't hate the Aladdin remake but the original was vastly superior. I think the comment about Aladdin was originally relating to the movie still making lots of money even though in that one screening there were 30 people.

 

[Colin Jacobson]

With regard to Disney+ specifically, I know people who have joined specifically for Hamilton, which is arriving next week. I've also heard reports of people signing up last November and then cancelling when The Mandelorian ended for the season. Disney+ in particular, with its $6.99/month price point, is inexpensive enough that you could easily join for just one thing and feel like you got your money's worth. That's less than the price of one movie ticket in most places.

You can join for just a month and then quit? I figured there'd be some minimum membership commitment there to prevent people from doing that!

 

[Sam Favate]

There’s no way that moving the film direct to Disney+ doesn’t result in a loss for the film. If this played in theaters, I would have taken my wife and two kids, so about $40 for a Saturday afternoon showing. I already subscribe to Disney+, so they’re not making anything from me. Even if they do $20 VOD, they’re only making half what they would have.

Disney+ has 55 million subscribers. That’s $330 million a month, and it’s probably what’s keeping the company afloat right now. There’s still a lot of room for the service to grow. Netflix - which, let’s be fair, is a much bigger service - has more than 180 million subscribers, and that’s at $12-14 a month. But Disney’s service isn’t even available in all countries.

I think the company should reignite it’s Blu-ray sales - actually promote those releases. Black Panther, Infinity War and Endgame each added $100 million to their totals from disc sales. Rise of Skywalker has made $42 million from discs since the end of March. There’s still money in Blu-ray (and UHD and DVD), and it adds to the film’s total instead of the streaming service.

The other option is pushing everything to 2021. The biggest problem with that is that the theaters might not survive until then. Troubling, confusing times, to be sure.

 

[Jake Lipson]

You can join for just a month and then quit?

Yes. I mean, I haven't done that, but yes. They did, however, recently drop the one-week free trial option in advance of the Hamilton release, so anyone wanting to see that will now have to pay.

There’s no way that moving the film direct to Disney+ doesn’t result in a loss for the film.

Of course. Mulan was made and budgeted with the intention of being a big wide theatrical release. But the question is, as you mentioned, how long do they want to hold onto it in order to make the theatrical release happen? Can they afford to put it off until 2021, or do they just want to put it out now? Artemis Fowl lost money in the move to Disney+, but they would have lost even more if they had spent money to promote and distribute a theatrical release of it first. Mulan is a film which Disney appears confident in, and I do believe they will continue to hold it. Disney+ is only an option if they believe that they have held onto it too long. The value of putting it there would be to keep current subscribers happy with new content so that they don't cancel, but I agree it would represent a loss. I don't think they're at that point with this film yet. But I also don't think it's feasible to release it in theaters on July 24 either.

 

[cinemiracle]

Yes. I mean, I haven't done that, but yes. They did, however, recently drop the one-week free trial option in advance of the Hamilton release, so anyone wanting to see that will now have to pay.



Of course. Mulan was made and budgeted with the intention of being a big wide theatrical release. But the question is, as you mentioned, how long do they want to hold onto it in order to make the theatrical release happen? Can they afford to put it off until 2021, or do they just want to put it out now? Artemis Fowl lost money in the move to Disney+, but they would have lost even more if they had spent money to promote and distribute a theatrical release of it first. Mulan is a film which Disney appears confident in, and I do believe they will continue to hold it. Disney+ is only an option if they believe that they have held onto it too long. The value of putting it there would be to keep current subscribers happy with new content so that they don't cancel, but I agree it would represent a loss. I don't think they're at that point with this film yet. But I also don't think it's feasible to release it in theaters on July 24 either.

ARTEMIS FOWL was a very tedious and empty film.Not surprising that it lost money. Superb special effects but nothing else.

 

[David Weicker]

The other financial thing about Disney+ instead of Theatrical is how do the accountants actually attribute dollars to a particular title.

The standard accounting practice is this picture cost this much to make and this much to advertise/release vs. this much in ticket sales. Then they determine whether a picture was profitable.

Under the streaming model, this picture cost this much to make and this much to announce vs. some arbitrary percentage of subscription fees. Its a very non-auditable process

 

[Wayne_j]

Disney would know the viewership numbers. In addition to getting new subscribers they need content that keeps people subscribed.

 

[Jake Lipson]

Now moved to August 21, which is once again the week after Tenet:

‘Mulan’ Moves Release Date To August 21 With NY, LA & China Theaters Still Not Open

Disney said Friday it is moving Niki Caro's Mulan release date from July 25 to August 21.

deadline.com

 

[TravisR]

Mulan coming on "August 21".

 

[Jake Lipson]

We were posting the same thing but I beat you by about a minute.

Obviously, Disney chose this because they want to be second after Tenet and don't want to be first. That's fine. But I really think this musical chairs nonsense with the release dates is damaging to the theaters who are tying their reopening plans to these films being available. As I said in the Tenet thread, all 2020 films should just be dated as TBD right now. I'm not saying they should come out in July, but I am saying that the studios are being Lucy taking away the football from Charlie Brown who wants to be ready to play, so it would be much better not to even pick a new date until they're sure they can meet it.

 

[TravisR]

We were posting the same thing but I beat you by about a minute.

You completely beat me because I was replying to your post. I put the August 21 in quotes because I assume that release date will change again.

 

[Jake Lipson]

I feel like this meme should be reversed, but...

 

[Jake Lipson]

Disney statement, emphasis mine:

“While the pandemic has changed our release plans for Mulan and we will continue to be flexible as conditions require, it has not changed our belief in the power of this film and its message of hope and perseverance,” said Alan Horn, co-chairman and chief creative officer, and Alan Bergman, co-chairman, The Walt Disney Studios. “Director Niki Caro and our cast and crew have created a beautiful, epic, and moving film that is everything the cinematic experience should be, and that’s where we believe it belongs – on the world stage and the big screen for audiences around the globe to enjoy together.”

That sounds like even they know it won't make August 21. So why even bother assigning it to this date?

 

[Sam Favate]

Like Tenet, this is delayed indefinitely.

Disney delays 'Mulan' indefinitely, Star Wars and Avatar movies pushed back a year

Disney is making some major changes to its release calendar that include displacing "Mulan" from its Aug. 21 release and pushing back the debuts of future Star Wars and Avatar movies by a year.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Jason_V]

Well, no movie theater til at least September it looks like. I wonder, at that point, will anyone even care? It'll be more than a half a year without that particular luxury. As much as I've been raising my hand that I'll be there when the theaters open, I don't know if I will. I'm living just fine without that particular expense in my life. Keep delaying and y'all aren't going to have anywhere to release your movies aside from iPhones and tablets.

 

[TravisR]

Like Tenet, this is delayed indefinitely.

Disney delays 'Mulan' indefinitely, Star Wars and Avatar movies pushed back a year

Disney is making some major changes to its release calendar that include displacing "Mulan" from its Aug. 21 release and pushing back the debuts of future Star Wars and Avatar movies by a year.

www.cnbc.com

They might as well just say "A week or two after they decide on Tenet's date" at this point since that's what they've been doing for the last few months.

 

[Sam Favate]

If it takes a year, I will be back in movie theaters, but not before I think it is safe for me and my family. I understand the hardship that theater owners face. I think and hope they will get government assistance, but the fact remains that I can't go to a theater until I personally feel okay doing it. But the fact that it takes several months makes no difference. I'm not going to forget about it.