"From Justin to Kelly" six week window moved back six weeks (1 Viewer)

[ThomasC]

http://www.msnbc.com/news/918922.asp

 

[Jonathan Dagmar]

Garenteed to be the stupidest movie ever made, but not the stupidest movie never made. That honour would have to go to the thank godd it never happened Grease 3 starring n'stink.

 

[Gary->dee]

Why is this even being released in theaters? Ok so they hope it'll be a big hit but it seems more like a Fox TV movie to me.


Justin: We are SO yesterday!
Kelly: Me too!

 

[Jeff Kleist]

Unfortunatley Kelley's gone double platinum with her bland,safe, innoffensive music. I'm sure Justin is next up, and this time next year we'll be innundated with Clay "I'm not gay" Aiken and Roooooooooooben.

It's a movie they tossed together, the fact that they're whole musical soundtrack is more soft safe hits just emphasises how bad this weill be.

And it'll still make 100 million, mark my words.

 

[Jonathan Dagmar]

Don't you mean Clay "Barry Manilow" Aiken?

 

[Gary->dee]

And it'll still make 100 million, mark my words.

Noted

I think it'll make 10-25 million tops. If it makes 100 million I'm moving to Iceland.

 

[Ed St. Clair]

Gary->dee,
The won't let you into Iceland.
You'll have too move to Greenland!
It can't be worse than Battlefield Earth.
But, it wont be able to hold a candle to Beach Blanket Bingo!

 

[Scott Weinberg]

Originally reported by the Wall Street Journal but deciphered on the internet courtesy of CHUD.com , here's an interesting story:



Six weeks?? Why even bother with a theatrical release at all? Oh yeah. Money.

(From Justin to Kelly hits theaters on June 13th.)

 

[Chris_Morris]

I think it'll make 10-25 million tops

You underestimate teeny boppers with big allowances and nothing else to do in the summer. I say it makes at least 100 million probably closer to 150.



Chris

 

[Xenia Stathakopoulou]

I think this will make about 5 million dollars more than real cancun ! anyway i will see it simply for the cheeseball factor ! I think this will be the most bashed film of the year, it might even win worst picture at the razzie awards ! I will definitely go opening week, because the following week im going to see hulk , and by then justin to kelly might be gone from theatres. This movie will be like grease 2 for this generation, instead of grease 1 !

 

[Malcolm R]

Well, I don't think it has a shot at $100M since its audience is quite narrow, namely little girls from about ages 10 to 14.

I'd expect it to top out around $40M max, more likely around $25M.

But it probably only cost around $10M to make, so unless it plays to totally empty theaters it should be profitable.

 

[Jeff Kleist]

Well, I don't think it has a shot at $100M since its audience is quite narrow, namely little girls from about ages 10 to 14.

Nope, American Idol is the #1 show among 10-18ers, AND there's a HUGE 30-something female audience for it. Reportedly like 80% of the people at the AI live shows are those 30-somethings. Don't forget, 25 percent of the households in the US voted on the AI final this year (don't forget, only 20% of eligable voters had bothered to vote in the primary the same day)

 

[Malcolm R]

Well, I think there's a slight difference between watching a TV show that's piped into every home in the country and actively going to the theater and paying $8 for a ticket to see these same people.

Didn't work for The Real Cancun, don't think it'll work for this either.

But, we'll see when it's released.

 

[Mark Silver]

Jeff,
YOur point is a good one, but those numbers are very deceiving. They are taking overall votes and not tracking multiple votes from the same house.

I understand the show is huge, but I am betting this movie is going to tank. THe clips they showed during the show looked awful.

 

[Chris_Morris]

Didn't work for The Real Cancun

Not really a good comparison because,
1. The Real Cancun was rated R
2. Not as many parents are going to take their teenys to see a movie glorifying getting drunk, and one night stands.

The ability of parents to drop the teenys off at the theater, and let them see it unsupervised is going to play a big factor.


Chris

 

[Colin Jacobson]

I think these predictions of $100 million plus for this flick are going to be WAY off base. I'm in the $25-$30 million camp. Yes, there's a big audience of American Idol fans, but pop musical acts simply don't translate to hit movies most of the time. Britney's Crossroads only made $37 million The sheer obvious cheesiness of Justin will keep a lot of folks home. I'll be shocked if this one doesn't tank at the BO...

 

[Randy A Salas]

If Fox expected this movie to make $100+ million, it wouldn't have scheduled the original video date (now pushed back to an undisclosed date) for just six weeks after the movie's opening.

The Britney Spears/Cross Roads example is a good one.

Also, look how hot Hilary Duff is now--with a top-rated TV show (for her age group of fans), massive Disney promotion (especially on Radio Disney with the target audience) and one of the top-selling CDs in the country. Yet The Lizzie McGuire Movie has made only about $37 million after four weeks and will probably top out around $50-$55 million based on its current trajectory. (For the record, that's very successful for such a fairly low-budget movie.)

From Justin to Kelly will be lucky to hit $50 million. Half that seems much more likely--and it would still be considered wildly successful.

 

[Mark Bendiksen]

{BIG SHUDDER}

That's the only reaction I can manage right now. "Reality TV" is one reason I tend to avoid television altogether these days and stick with movies on DVD. Yuck!

 

[Jeff Kleist]

Mark, try "The Amazing Race" on tonight. It's reality TV for those of us who hate it. Which is why it's on the bubble of cancellation *sigh*

 

[Julian Lalor]

Kelly and Justin are, well, so last year. I'm surprised FOX is even bothering to move this one into theatres. A double platinum album does not of itself translate into a successful film career. Just ask Madonna. Unless there is no other teen-centric film out there, expect small grosses for this one (hence its 6 week window).