Directors consensus: great movies - results

Discussion in 'Movies' started by george kaplan, Mar 20, 2002.

  1. george kaplan

    george kaplan Executive Producer

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    I've started a new thread to post the various results of our study. However, I am giving voters one last chance to finish up. In particular, I'd like to encourage andrew_sch, jay e, jeff amaris, and martin teller who are all very nearly complete. Look for results here coming soon.

    "LAST CALL for votes".
     
  2. rhett

    rhett Supporting Actor

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    bump
     
  3. george kaplan

    george kaplan Executive Producer

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    First of all, I spelled consensus incorrectly in the title, but, then again, no one noticed. [​IMG]
    The voting is complete and now we can consider the results. I’m going to do this in bite-size pieces to keep from getting overwhelmed. There’s a lot of data here. Hell, I could do a dissertation with this much data. First things first. Some provisos:
    1. Our sample is neither a random sample, nor necessarily representative of any larger population. I’ll talk as if our results generalize to the HTF community as a whole, but there’s no way to know how accurate that is.
    2. There were a lot of votes cast. Over 7500! I created an excel spreadsheet and entered each vote in it’s appropriate place, one at a time. I was very careful in doing this, but I did NOT double-check my work by entering each vote a second time. Also, not everyone voted in quite the same way. There were occasional ambiguous votes that I couldn’t get clarification on. I did my best to figure out the correct votes in such cases. Also, some people may have changed their votes after I first entered them. If this was done with a new post, I updated the results. If people just edited their original post, the changes might not have been reflected. Overall, I think this data is a nearly perfect representation of the votes cast.
    3. I’ve created various index scores and I also provide rank ordering. You may notice two films with the same score but different rankings. There are two reasons for this. One, the scores may not in actuality be the same, but may simply look that way due to rounding. And two, I typically used tiebreakers in ranking (e.g., number of votes cast or number of abstentions). For example, if one film got 10 thumbs up out of 10 votes cast, and another got 30 out of 30, they both got 100%, but the latter has more precision and would get a higher ranking.
    4. There were a few people who only cast a few votes. I have left these votes in when calculating statistics on the movies, but excluded these people when talking about any statistics on the voters.
    I think that’s it. I’ll be back soon with some initial results.
     
  4. george kaplan

    george kaplan Executive Producer

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    This all started when I noticed that it seemed every movie, no matter how well-regarded in general, seemed to have it’s detractors around here. So this got me wondering whether there were any films that we’d all agree was a great film, not necessarily the greatest or even the top 10, just great. The idea was if we were all in a room and the names of films were called out and we raised our hand if we agreed it was great, were there any films where we’d all raise our hands.
    The answer, sadly, is no. We voted on 220 films that were nominated because they were felt they had a good chance of being a universal choice, and not a single one was. Of course, when people fail to raise their hands, it could be for one of two reasons. Either they’ve seen the film and don’t think it’s great, or they haven’t seen the film and are abstaining.
    I’ll look at abstaining in different ways, but our first statistical index, the consensus index, treats them as no votes. I think this is appropriate. Consider Sons of the Desert. Every single voter who saw this film considered it a great movie. Yet, over 85% of us, haven’t seen it. Can we say it’s a consensus choice for a great movie? No. It’s possible if we all sat and watched it that we’d have 100% consensus. But I’d consider that unlikely.
    So what film did have the highest degree of consensus? Rear Window with a consensus index of 97.22. The only thing keeping this from being a true consensus film was one person who hasn’t seen it. But out of our 220 films, only 8 obtained 90% or higher consensus. They are:
    rank...........film.........consensus
    1.....Rear Window...............97.22
    2.....Psycho.......................97.14
    3.....The Godfather.............94.44
    3.....The Godfather, Part 2...94.44
    5.....Citizen Kane................94.29
    6.....Star Wars...................91.89
    7.....Dr. Strangelove............91.43
    8.....North by Northwest......91.43
    The second tier of films, reaching at least 80% consensus are:
    rank...........film.........consensus
    9.....2001: A Space Odyssey..................88.89
    10....Goodfellas.................................. .88.57
    11....The Wizard of Oz..........................88.57
    12....Apocalypse Now...........................88.24
    13....Vertigo..................................... ...85.71
    13....Bridge on the River Kwai.................85.71
    15....Chinatown................................... 85.71
    16....Casablanca.................................. 85.71
    17....Ben-Hur (1959).............................82.86
    18....Raiders of the Lost Ark...................82.86
    18....Snow White And the Seven Dwarfs...82.86
    18....One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest.....82.86
    21....Schindler's List..............................82.35
    22....To Kill a Mockingbird.......................80.00
    23....A Clockwork Orange.......................80.00
    24....Lawrence of Arabia........................80.00
    In general, some of the observations I’ve made include:
    Big winners:
    Hitchcock – not only does he have the number 1 and number 2 film, he has 3 of the top 8 (the 90% club).
    Mafia films – 3 of the top 10, Godfather 1 & 2 tied for #3, Goodfellas at #10
    Kubrick – #7, #9, #23
    Lean – not as good as the others, but still good (#14, #24)
    Big losers:
    Comedies – yes, Dr. Strangelove did well (#7), but after that the next highest consensus comedy is a tie at #52 between Duck Soup & the Apartment, each getting only 60% consensus. What’s Up Doc?, a great comedy in my opinion came in at #218, with only 8.57% consensus.
    Silents – The best silent was the Gold Rush wish came in at #70 with 54.29% consensus. Greed was #213, with 14.29% consensus.
    Billy Wilder – I think Hitch & Wilder are the two best directors. You guys agree with me on Hitch, but not Billy. His highest ranking film was The Apartment #52, only 60% consensus. One, Two, Three came in #215, with only 11.76% consensus
    Foreign films – they didn’t do quite as badly as the above, but still nowhere near consensus. The best was Seven Samurai at #36 (71.43% consensus), the worst, The Killer, #219 (8.33% consensus).
    Most of us are going to agree with the top films. After all, they’re the top films because almost all of us called them great. But there’s bound to be less happiness with the bottom films. After all, somebody nominated them, not only because they thought they were great, but thought there’d be near universal agreement with that sentiment. And our bottom 10 are:
    rank...........film.........consensus
    211....Predator.................14.71
    212....Sons of the Desert...14.29
    213....Greed....................14.29
    214....Open City................11.76
    215....One, Two, Three......11.76
    216....Victor/Victoria..........11.43
    217....Pillow Talk..............11.11
    218....What's Up Doc?........8.57
    219....The Killer................8.33
    220....Wag the Dog...........2.86
    Keep in mind, that these are only the worst of those 220 that were nominated. There are tons of films that would have fared much worse. And in most cases, a thumbs down meant “a very good, but not great film”, not “this film sucks”. So, it’s kind of unfair to consider these films as having done really bad. But, in terms of consensus, they are far from it. Those of us who thought there’d be near universal praise for these films, were wrong. J
    I’ll be back with more analyses later. Feel free to comment, or ask questions or ask for analyses. I’ll do those that I can reasonably do.
     
  5. Gabe D

    Gabe D Cinematographer

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  6. Darren H

    Darren H Second Unit

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    George, I'd love to see an analysis that omits the abstains. I'm curious about other films like Sons of the Desert (which I also haven't seen). I bet Open City, for instance, got a high percentage of thumbs ups from those of us who have seen it.
     
  7. MartinTeller

    MartinTeller Screenwriter

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    I think you should compile a separate set of scores that DOESN'T factor in the abstains. For example:

    Rear Window - 100% (99% of voters)

    Sons of the Desert - 100% (15% of voters)

    I would definitely be interested in those scores. IMHO, a vote shouldn't count for anything if the person hasn't seen the film. If only 5 people saw a film but they all loved it, it shouldn't rank lower than a film that 50 people saw but only 30 loved it.
     
  8. Dheiner

    Dheiner Gazoo

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    I am looking forward to more analysis. I am most interested in the ratings among those who saw each of these. I agree that from one perspective a didn't see vote is a no, but, often, at least in my case, a didn't see vote was due to my ignorance in selecting films to watch.

    Also, at least one of us noticed, but you caught it before I could ping you on it.
     
  9. SteveGon

    SteveGon Executive Producer

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  10. george kaplan

    george kaplan Executive Producer

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    I've finally got the tables looking halfway decent, but man what a pain. If anyone has any ideas for easily getting pretty tables in word into here without looking horrible, I'd appreciate it. Otherwise it's going to slow me down quite a bit.
     
  11. Andrew_Sch

    Andrew_Sch Cinematographer

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    How did Fight Club , Willy Wonka and Ferris Bueller do?
     
  12. Brian Kissinger

    Brian Kissinger Screenwriter

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    George:

    I didn't participate in this because there were a lot of movies I haven't seen. I now wish I would have. You have clearly put forth a lot of effort into this, and the results are quite interesting. Even though I didn't "vote" in this thing, I just wanted to say thanks for going to all the trouble.
     
  13. Rob Tomlin

    Rob Tomlin Producer

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    George-
    Just wanted to thank you for this great info. I truly think that this is the single best idea for a "poll" that I have ever seen! Great Job! [​IMG]
    Oh, and I am sure that you noticed that Lawrence of Arabia garnered an 80% approval rating for being considered a "Great" film, right!?
    [​IMG]
     
  14. Scott Weinberg

    Scott Weinberg Lead Actor

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    Very cool project George! I'd be curious to see any more statistics you have!
    How'd Airplane!, Fight Club and Young Frankenstein do?? [​IMG]
     
  15. Evan Case

    Evan Case Screenwriter

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    Exceptional work, sir. [​IMG]
    And considering that two of my nominations finished in the bottom 10 (Sons of the Desert and One, Two, Three), I'm interested in the non-abstaintion version as well. [​IMG]
    Evan
    Well, at least Sons got 100%. I'll just consider it HTF's greatest unwatched classic. [​IMG]
     
  16. george kaplan

    george kaplan Executive Producer

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    TEST:
     
  17. george kaplan

    george kaplan Executive Producer

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    I'll be adding a new index a bit later. I still can't easily put the tables of info in here. In the meantime, let me address some of the questions: (btw, from now on I'm rounding precentages to whole numbers to make it easier for me to format).
     
  18. LukeB

    LukeB Cinematographer

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    Well I'm not surprised by "Singin' in the Rain"....after all, what the hell was AFI thinking putting it at #10? Cause it's a musical about cinema? What the hell! Had any of them seen it lately, or were they just going by their wonderful memories of it.
    Well, more than half of you thought it was great, so I won't bash it anymore.
    [​IMG]
     
  19. Jeff_A

    Jeff_A Screenwriter

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    George, one thing jumps out at me. On the Waterfront wasn't even nominated? [​IMG] Perhaps we should have considered automatically including the AFI top 100 and taken some additional nominations from there. That said, you have done a remarkable job with this study. I look forward to seeing the rest of the data. [​IMG]
     
  20. george kaplan

    george kaplan Executive Producer

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    Jeff,
    My bad. Of course it was nominated. I had searched for it but there was a typo in the search. Sorry.
    First of all, I'm going to spend a bit of time getting these tables to look readable, but beyond that, sorry for the way they look.
    It's time to introduce our next index. I call this the appreciation index. It essentially measures how appreciated the film is among those who have seen it. This is what some of you have been clamoring for.
    So, what films are there that everyone who's seen them agree are great. There are exactly 11. Read another way, that means that for 209 of the 220 films that people thought there'd be universal agreement, at least 1 person who's seen it, gave it a thumbs down, and does not agree it's great.
    So what are the 11 films with no dissenting votes? Here they are with appreciation index and consensus index.

    Rank….Film……………………….appreciation.....consensus
    1….Rear Window……………………………100……..........97
    2….Psycho…………………………………………100……..........97
    3….Citizen Kane……………………..100……..........94
    4….Notorious…………………………………100……..........74
    5….Das Boot………………………………….100……..........69
    6….12 Angry Men……………………….100……..........66
    7….M…………………………………………………..100……..........57
    8….Double Indemnity…………..100……..........51
    9….To Be or Not To Be……..100……..........34
    10…Gunga Din……………………………..100……..........21
    11…Sons of the Desert…………100……..........14
    Of course, there were also a number of films that had over 90% appreciation. They are

    Rank….Film……………………….................appreciation.....consensus
    12...The Godfather……………………………………………...... 97………..........94
    13...The Godfather, Part 2………………………….....97………..........94
    14...Dr. Strangelove………………………………………….....97………..........91
    15...Vertigo……………………………………………………………….....97………..........86
    16...Bridge on the River Kwai……………………....97………..........86
    17...To Kill a Mockingbird ……………………….....97………..........80
    18...Rebecca……………………………………………………………….....96………..........74
    19...The Good, the Bad and the Ugly…………….96………..........74
    20...The Third Man……………………………………………...... 96………..........71
    21...Touch of Evil……………………………………………….....96………..........66
    22...Mr. Smith Goes to Washington………………..95………..........59
    23...The Gold Rush (1925)…………………………….....95………..........54
    24...The Lady Vanishes…………………………………….....95………..........54
    25...Stalag 17………………………………………………………….....95………..........50
    26...Star Wars………………………………………………………….....94………..........92
    27...North by Northwest…………………………………..... 94………..........91
    28...The Passion of Joan of Arc………………....94………..........46
    29...Modern Times………………………………………………….....94………..........46
    30...Goodfellas……………………………………………………...... 94………..........89
    31...Chinatown………………………………………………………….....94………..........86
    32...8 1/2…………………………………………………………………….....94………..........43
    33...Ben-Hur (1959)…………………………………………….....94………..........83
    34...Rashomon…………………………………………………………….....93………..........41
    35...The Man Who Shot Liberty Valance…...93………..........38
    36...The 400 Blows……………………………………………….....92………..........35
    37...Persona……………………………………………………………….....92………..........34
    38...The Red Shoes……………………………………………….....92………..........34
    39...Sullivan's Travels………………………………….....92………..........34
    40...Laura…………………………………………………………………......92………..........34
    41...Paths of Glory…………………………………………….....92………..........68
    42...The African Queen…………………………………….....92………..........63
    43...Duck Soup………………………………………………………….....91………..........60
    44...The Apartment……………………………………………….....91………..........60
    45...The Wizard of Oz……………………………………...... 91………..........89
    46...Apocalypse Now…………………………………………….....91………..........88
    47...Casablanca……………………………………………………...... 91………..........86
    48...The Manchurian Candidate……………………....90………..........54
    49...A Clockwork Orange………………………………….....90………..........80
    50...The Seventh Seal……………………………………….....90………..........53

    Rob,
    Notice that The Apartment has 91% appreciation. I'm sure after you see it, it'll jump to 92% [​IMG].
     

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