A few words about....Blu-Ray (1 Viewer)

[Paul.S]

An important distinction, if not so much between you as others who've given the issues even more "cursory" looks.

And damn--if your participation/contributions both herein and in other related threads is the result of only "cursory" looks, Goddess help us all when you get thorough!


-p

 

[Aaron_Brez]

I'm just a fanatic, same as you guys.

The only reason I have anything more useful than guesswork to add to this discussion is that I work in the portion of my company which makes media processing chips which will likely end up in a HD-DVD player or a Blu-ray player-- probably both. I speak the language and have seen a couple more specs and roadmaps than you.

And even with that "inside information", my comments are still mostly guesswork. I just know what features our customers (not end-users, the consumer electronics companies who will build the systems for end-users) are demanding, and what features are coming, so I can try to draw conclusions about what it all means.

I certainly don't expect you to think I speak with authority on this topic; I'm a cog on a wheel, not an engine. The reasons I post so much on this topic are 1) I love the technology of HD home theater, 2) there's some clarification I can add when it comes to industryspeak, and mostly 3) I can justify checking the HTF every couple hours or so as "market research" for my job.

 

[Paul.S]

Another Paul Sweeting article, this time from DVD Exclusive: "Lieberfarb Lobs at Blu-ray"

I largely agree with his criticisms but it seems a little tardy.

-p

 

[PeterTHX]

Why?

Would you have been happy if DVD had turned out to be an "extension of current CD technology"?

Lieberfarb neglects to mention that Blu-ray disc was first.
HD-DVD is a patent grab by his master: Toshiba.

 

[Aaron_Brez]

I'm quite amused by Lieberfarb's assertion that three companies were acting "anti-competitively" by dealing improperly with "the main cross-industry standards group".

So going against the grain of what is essentially a cartel of industry players is evidence of a trust? That's stretching it more than a bit. Toshiba's just mad because they weren't allowed their chance at manipulating the market through the DVD Forum-- Sony beat them to it.

Had Blu-ray brought their case to the trust cartel standards group, Toshiba and Warner would likely have used their own veto power to stymie the superior format in favor of, as Liberfarb puts it, "the lowest cost solution"-- which was, in case anyone has forgotten from prior to the Blu-ray group's schism, what Warner was pushing: red-laser DVD "with an advanced codec". HD-DVD as a blue-laser, higher capacity product was only adopted in response to Blu-ray's announcements, and in fact even when it was originally proposed, two tiers of HD disk (red-laser and blue-laser) were assumed by the DVD Forum to be coexistent at the start of the product life. It was only much later that HD-on-red was abandoned.

Lieberfarb was instrumental in the adoption of a single-standard for DVD, and for that I'm grateful, but at this point he's not looking for a replay of the DVD situation (two competing formats merging their efforts for a final solution): he's frustrated because the standards body he created-- with built in heavy-handed manipulation capability-- was manipulated in a way he didn't like. Cry me a river.

If it were not for the "system without a proven product that has any more capacity than HD-DVD", we'd be waiting for them to feed us max-18GB flippers with 9Mbps bitrate 1080i. Blu-ray, in its "anti-competitiveness", has forced a bump upward in the technology. I think that in the end, whichever format survives the war, the consumer will win in terms of product quality.

Edited for more liberal bitrate. Still doesn't compare to even HD-DVD, let alone Blu-ray.

 

[Paul.S]

Hey, Peter--Merry (early) Christmas: Par goes both ways.

-p

 

[PeterTHX]

Woot! Thanks Paul.

To paraphrase Barf in Spaceballs:
I am right. When it comes to Blu-ray, I'm always right!

I predicted this. No studios support HD-DVD exclusively. PLUS they all support the Sony PSP, a limited market if there ever was one.

The only thing that will confuse customers is the presence of HD-DVD discs for a couple players at Best Buy (Circuit City does not carry Toshiba, Sanyo, and NEC home electronics).

Format war? What format war?

 

[Aaron_Brez]

And the HD-DVD tower begins to crumble...

If Warner does soon, as the article suggests, "swing both ways", and Universal follows, the format war is officially over. Intel's and Microsoft's support is essentially meaningless if Blu-ray has, not half, not even most, but all the studios publishing on it.

Now, if we can verify that internet connection will not be mandatory for basic functionality, then I forsee shiny new disks on my shelves, and could it be they might have a distinctly Blu-ish cast?

 

[PeterTHX]

I think the only thing Blue about Blu-ray is the logo and the laser...even then isn't it a kind of violet?

I predict internet connectivity will NOT be mandatory.

 

[FrancisP]

Blu-ray may go down if the copy protection is too onerous.
I do not believe that people are ready to accept the idea of Hollywood being able to shut down the player that a consumer purchases on a whim. Also why should Joe sixpack
buy into blu-ray or hd-dvd? Hollywood will probably just
re-release the same movies that are currently on dvd. Why
should they buy another copy? I think it is possible that
it could be another laserdisc vs CED where both formats were abandoned.

 

[Aaron_Brez]

Laserdisc lasted about 20 years. Not sure I'd be dissatisfied with that.

Copyright protection could be a problem, if it's obvious to the user (having to plug it into a phone jack). Other than that, it's not like it will be listed on the side of the box: "Now, with Studio-deactivation mode!" People won't know about it unless it happens.

As for J6P, he probably won't buy in the first couple of years-- he didn't on DVD, either. Nobody's expecting that it will be anything but an enthusiast's medium for the first stage of its existence.

If the past is any guide, though, three years in, prices on Blu-ray drives will be in the $200-300 range, or possibly lower, and this will drive penetration. Arguably, the biggest hurdle to surmount will be HDTV market penetration-- even though you could theoretically get a better picture with Blu-ray than a DVD on an SD TV, it won't be a big enough difference to matter to the generic consumer.

 

[Frank@N]

The casual consumer will most likely buy the most popular format (VHS->DVD->???). J6P isn't really concerned with PQ OAR SQ.

I think the real issue is what Early Adopters will do. Many will buy HD movies almost immediately, others will only upgrade titles that were poorly done on DVD.

I'm not an EA, so I'll consider upgrading titles when used HD prices are around current used DVD prices ($7-$14).

 

[Glenn Overholt]

Aaron - wouldn't it be a blast to make up some stickers that read - Now, with Studio-deactivation mode!" and then slapping them on all of the new players in stores?

Glenn

 

[Aaron_Brez]

Sure, if you want to get kicked out of the store.

In other news, Tom's Hardware has part 2 of the HP/Blu-ray response here.

This quote is likely to generate controversy, but I must stress that this is interpretive on the part of Tom's Hardware, and not set in stone in the AACS spec as released so far. AACS does not, at this point, require a continuous internet connection.

 

[Nils Luehrmann]

This PR from InterVideo regarding WinDVD's support of Blu-ray may hold interest for the HTPC community looking for an economical Blu-ray player:

 

[Juan C]

Star Wars on Blu-ray early on

 

[DaViD Boulet]

One of the reasons Lucas said he waited so long getting his original trilogy on DVD to begin with was that "something better than DVD is coming...hi def"...so apparently he's all over the idea of getting his movies out in hi-def to the public.

 

[Jesse Blacklow]

That's odd, because the quote from this report at DVDTalk is a lot more ambiguous:I think the DVDAnswers guys were interpreting it a little differently, given that Blu-Ray had a lead at the time of the article.

Nils, both Intervideo (WinDVD) and Cyberlink (PowerDVD), as well as Nero, have announced support for Blu-Ray. I think all 3 may have announced support for HD-DVD as well, but of course HTPC support for either all hinges on how nasty copy protection will be. I don't think most computers are fast enough for anything but decoding, and it's quite possible that the chain may have to remain unbroken if there's any postprocessing, cutting open-source programs like FFDshow out of the loop.

 

[TedD]

WinDVD and PowerDVD are both non-Directshow players, so there will be NO chance of using ffdshow, no AR control, no blanking control, no autostart bookmarks (means no skipping forced trailers and FBI warnings), etc etc etc -- unless Intervideo includes those functions within their player application. Since they have avoided doing so up to now, I doubt they will ever do so.

While both vendors supply Directshow filters with their apps, neither one actually uses them. We have already seen Intervideo begin to disable features in the filters that are available in their player applications.

Ted

 

[Nils Luehrmann]

Rumors about a delay in 50GB BD discs appear to be false.

TDK announced that they have four types of Blu-ray discs (25GB & 50GB BD-R, BD-RW) ready for production and that they are simply waiting for the BDA to issue licenses for the format. Once that happens, they plan on releasing both 25GB and 50GB discs at the same time. In addition, TDK has also developed and demoed 100GB prototype discs.

No word on pricing yet.