2011 at the Box Office (1 Viewer)

[TerryRL]

http://www.deadline.com/2011/06/first-box-office-super-8-on-target-for-about-11m-friday-and-30m-weekend/


It's encouraging to see an original movie overperforming at the North American box office as well as receiving an overall 'B+' CinemaScore. (Especially after Hollywood has spent the past month relentlessly beating up on what it's been deriding as a throwback in which ET meets Close Encounters meets Jurassic Park.) That grade breaks down as follows: 29% of the audience under age 25 gave it 'A-', 71% over 25 'B', 56% of males 'B+', and 44% of females 'B+'. Moviegoers spent $12 million Friday on the the Bad Robot/Amblin/Paramount movie Super 8 from JJ Abrams and Steven Spielberg for what should be $35M from 3,379 locations. "Sweeeeeeet," a Paramount exec emailed me tonight. These grosses do not include the $1 million made from Thursday's sneaks in about 335 theaters. Everyone is very skeptical of the reputed $50 million cost but that's Paramount's claim and the studio is sticking to it. Refined numbers and full analysis later. Fox's week-old X-Men: First Class is a strong #2 nearing $100M cume. Meanwhile, never underestimate the film taste of the public for sequels because #3 Warner Bros' The Hangover Part 2 has now grossed over $200m in its first 16 days of release for bragging rights as the largest grossing film of 2011. "With Green Lantern, Horrible Bosses, and Harry Potter 7B lined up and ready to go, WB is positioned to regain the industry market share (4th year in a row) by the end of summer," a Warner Bros exec just emailed me. Relativity's Judy Moody And The NOT Bummer Summer is another $5.5M stillborn weekend release for the studio despite its 'B+' CinemaScore. Overall, total moviegoing this weekend is looking like $130+M, down -13% from last year. Refined numbers and full analysis in the morning.


1. Super 8 (Bad Robot/Amblin/Paramount) NEW [3,379 Runs]
Friday $12M, Estimated Weekend $35M


2. X-Men: First Class (Fox) Week 2 [3,692 Runs]
Friday $7.4M (-65%), Estimated Weekend $24M, Estimated Cume $98M


3. The Hangover Part II (Warner Bros) Week 3 [3,644 Runs]
Friday $5.7M, Estimated Weekend $17.5M, Estimated Cume $215.3M


4. Kung Fu Panda 2 (DWA/Paramount) Week 3 [3,929 Runs]
Friday $4.8M (-25%), Estimated Weekend $17.5M, Estimated Cume $128M


5. Pirates Of The Caribbean 4 (Disney) Week 4 [3,433 Runs]
Friday $3.2M, Estimated Weekend $11.5M, Estimated Cume $209.3M


6. Bridesmaids (Universal) Week 5 [2,922 Runs]
Friday $3.1M, Estimated Weekend $10.5M, Estimated Cume $124M


7. Judy Moody (Relativity) NEW [2,524]
Friday $2.2M, Estimated Weekend $5.5M


8. Midnight In Paris (Sony Classics) Week 4 [944 Theaters]
Friday $1.8M, Estimated Weekend $7M, Estimated Cume $15.5M


9. Thor (Marvel/Paramount) Week 6 [1,782 Runs]
Friday $700K, Estimated Cume $2M, Estimated Cume $173.3M


10. Fast Five (Universal) Week 7 [1,329 Runs]
Friday $550K, Estimated Cume $1.8M, Estimated Cume $205.2M

---Nikki Finke

 

[Zack Gibbs]

I had no idea Super 8 was supposed to be a low-budget affair, that would certainly put it in a different light. A 30mil opening sounds like what I was expecting but I figured they were looking for a lot more than that.


I mean they are releasing this as a summer tentpole, one they starting teasing a full year ago. If this was the business they actually wanted they would have been much better off with a January or March release.

 

[Brian Sheffield]

Originally Posted by Zack Gibbs

I had no idea Super 8 was supposed to be a low-budget affair, that would certainly put it in a different light. A 30mil opening sounds like what I was expecting but I figured they were looking for a lot more than that.


I mean they are releasing this as a summer tentpole, one they starting teasing a full year ago. If this was the business they actually wanted they would have been much better off with a January or March release.

The studio was preemptively trying to save face after the low initial tracking numbers. There's no way they were "expecting" a low to mid 30's opening for a Spielberg produced summer tentpole with a long marketing scheme including a Superbowl spot.


This way they can say they were happy, even if it did not meet realistic expectations. My BS meter is pinging.

 

[Adam Lenhardt]

Both Super 8 and X-Men: First Class slightly outperformed tracking, according to estimates. Super 8 logged an opening weekend of $37 million, slightly under Cloverfield's opening weekend but with roughly double the budget. If estimates hold, X-Men: First Class will have the best second weekend hold of any movie in the franchise with a drop of only 54.6%.

 

[TerryRL]

International box office report from The Hollywood Reporter...


Weekend action—Po pushes Jack Sparrow aside!


DreamWorks Animation’s Kung Fu Panda 2 made its debut in the weekend’s No. 1 box office spot on the foreign theatrical circuit, grossing $56.5 million from 11,025 screens in 45 territories.


The tally was buoyed by the 3D animation sequel’s solid openings in 17 overseas markets. Total foreign gross for Panda 2 has exceeded the $200-million mark (cume is $205 million), as per distributor Paramount.


Panda 2 took the top spot in the U.K. and Ireland with an opening tally of $10 million from 516 venues. A Mexico bow delivered $8.3 million from 527 sites. Brazil kicked in $5.8 million from 404 situations while Argentina generated $2.3 million from 118 spots. Panda 2 in its Peru opening grossed $1.3 million from 52 locations for a $25,000 per-screen average, the biggest market opening of 2011.


With a tally of $41.1 million—down 41% from the prior round—Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides ended its three-stanza hold on the No. 1 overseas boxoffice title.


Ranking No. 3 this time, the Disney release starring Johnny Depp played at 14,602 venues in 72 markets, moving its foreign gross total up to $678 million—more than three times its domestic take. Top market remains Japan where Tides drew a No. 1 ranking with a weekend gross of $6 million, pushing the market cume to $74.5 million.


Tides is easily the biggest-grossing Pirates title of the four franchise installments thus far, handily outpacing the previous foreign frontrunner, 2007’s Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End, by $24 million. Worldwide cume stands at $886.8 million, making Tides the 19th biggest global grosser of all time.

Super 8, which premiered No. 1 in the U.S. and Canada, opened in nine mostly second-tier Southeast Asian markets on the weekend, drawing $6.7 million from a total of 652 screens and ranking No. 5 offshore overall. Opening weekend worldwide comes to $44.7 million.


The sci-fi adventure, written and directed by J.J. Abrams and produced by Steven Spielberg, premiered No. 3 in Australia to what distributor Paramount described as “an excellent holiday weekend gross” of $2.7 million drawn from 652 sites.


Super 8’s Hong Kong bow drew a No. 1 marketing ranking with $575,000 yielded from 42 situations for a per-screen average of $13,690. No. 1 openings were also recorded in Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. Openings in 16 territories loom this week including Russia, Sweden and South Korea.


Finishing second on the weekend was 20th Century Fox’s X-Men: First Class, which tallied $42.2 million from 10,643 screens in 66 markets.


Overseas cume now stands at $124.2 million after only a dozen days of release on the foreign circuit. The latest installment of the billion-dollar comic book franchise took the top spot in France for the second consecutive weekend, grossing $3.25 million from 687 sites for a market cume of $11.5 million.


Warner Bros.’ The Hangover Part II crossed the $200-million foreign gross mark (cume is $215.5 million) thanks to a $38.3 million weekend at some 7,200 screens in 55 markets.

In just 18 days of foreign release, the comedy sequel has surpassed the $191.6 million overseas gross total recorded by 2009’s original, The Hangover. The sequel ranks No. 4 on the weekend overall. Top market was Germany where Hangover 2 grossed $7.9 million from 872 sites, ranking a dominant No. 1 in the market.

Universal’s Fast Five hoisted its foreign gross total to $378.3 million thanks to a $5.9 million weekend at 5,450 playdates in 63 territories. The overseas cume to date (a Japan opening is due in October) makes the latest installment of the car action franchise the biggest-grossing title of the series, besting previous foreign frontrunner, 2009’s Fast & Furious, by $170.3 million.


In the U.K. Universal opened Honey 2, a dance drama from Marc Platt Productions, in the market’s fifth spot. Opening tally was $850,000 from 301 sites. An opening in Germany is next on June 23, while a France bow is due July 20.


Other international cumes: Sony’s Priest, $44 million; Fox’s Diary of a Wimpy Kid 2, $15.6 million; Universal’s Hop, $67.3 million; Sony, Focus Features and other distributors’ Hanna, $14.8 million; Universal’s Paul, $55.1 million; Fox’s Rio, $329.5 million; Universal’s Senna, $4.8 million from seven territories; Fox’s Black Swan, $216.8 million; Universal’s The Adjustment Bureau, $59.8 million; Fox’s Water For Elephants, $55.3 million.

 

[Edwin-S]

Somebody was speculating whether Green Lantern would be 2011's biggest summer box office bomb, but I'm wondering whether that dubious honour will actually go to TinTin. I know that I'll probably go to see it, but I can't imagine that mainstream North American audiences will be interested in seeing a film about a comic character that most have probably never heard of. I also wonder if some TinTin fans will be turned off because the character doesn't look much like Herge's character. In fact, when I saw the character he reminded me more of some bastardized version of Archie than TinTin.

 

[Zack Gibbs]

TinTin doesn't come out until Christmas.

 

[TravisR]

Somebody was speculating whether Green Lantern would be 2011's biggest summer box office bomb, but I'm wondering whether that dubious honour will actually go to TinTin.

It might be a tough sell but I think having Spielberg and Jackson's names on it guarantees that people will turn out. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong but isn't Tin Tin still hugely popular almost everywhere in the world but North America? Assuming that's the case, I imagine that it'll do great international business.

 

[TerryRL]

Given that WB has spent more than $300 million to make and market "Green Lantern" (counting cost overruns with all the late FX shots that were added), the movie has to do well globally if the studio hopes to not only see a profit, but to see another franchise to hang their hats on materialize. Current tracking suggests an opening weekend in the neighborhood of $55-$60 million, roughly between the openings of "Thor" ($65.7 million) and "X-Men: First Class" ($55.1 million). WB is really hoping the movie performs more on par with "Iron Man", especially considering that the tone of the two films are said to be very similar.

WB has mounted an aggressive marketing campaign for the movie and are expecting it to pay off in ticket sales. The studio's best case scenario would be if "Green Lantern" ended up being the biggest superhero hit of the summer.

 

[Edwin-S]

I really think picking Green Lantern for development into a movie was a dumb decision. Spandex-clad Superheroes are inherently silly, but a Superhero whose "powers" cannot effect anything yellow is just ridiculous.

 

[Jose Martinez]

yeah, just like that other superhero who gets superweak from a little tiny green rock or can't see through lead. Just silly. or how about that guy who calls himself after a flying rodent and fights crime without having a single super power. just super gadgets. just ridiculous.

Originally Posted by Edwin-S

I really think picking Green Lantern for development into a movie was a dumb decision. Spandex-clad Superheroes are inherently silly, but a Superhero whose "powers" cannot effect anything yellow is just ridiculous.

 

[Chuck Anstey]

Originally Posted by Edwin-S

I really think picking Green Lantern for development into a movie was a dumb decision. Spandex-clad Superheroes are inherently silly, but a Superhero whose "powers" cannot effect anything yellow is just ridiculous.

The Green Lantern haven't had that weakness in quite a while from what I understand. I do not expect the movie to use it either but who knows.

 

[Steve_Tk]

I think the green lantern is a cool idea, just the trailers look horrible. Digital suit? Bad CGI? Those first trailers made the story look terrible. It might bomb because it's a bad movie, not because it's the green lantern.

 

[TravisR]

It might bomb because it's a bad movie, not because it's the green lantern.

I think quality is meaningless to the opening weekend of a summer movie though. If Green Lantern bombs, it'll be because the marketing campaign couldn't convince people to see it. People will pay to see anything if they have the right marketing campaign. For example, the new Transformers movie will probably be as bad or worse than the other two but it'll make at least $300 million this summer.

 

[Brandon Conway]

I can't understand how anyone can consider the Green Lantern effects to be bad CGI. Looks on par to Avatar, IMO. Different subject matter, but it looks exactly what it should look like. Baffling to me.


This is the most hated unseen movie on message boards in a LONG time.

 

[Patrick Sun]

Originally Posted by Brandon Conway

I can't understand how anyone can consider the Green Lantern effects to be bad CGI. Looks on par to Avatar, IMO. Different subject matter, but it looks exactly what it should look like. Baffling to me.


This is the most hated unseen movie on message boards in a LONG time.

Forgive the pun, but the haters seem to be jaded. Now, I'll slag it after I see the film and don't like it, but the EFX in the trailers look okay to me.

 

[TravisR]

While I think GL is going to have a hard time grabbing an audience, I do hope it's a good movie. Based only its trailer, it looks like they capture a fun and adventurous tone that I wish more comic book movies would try to go for.

 

[ArchMike]

Only thing I noticed from GL is that it has Blake Lively - the Gossip Girl girl... I can think of one thing she was decent in, and quite a few she's been terrible in. Having her as a love interest made me instantly think of Fantastic Four level of garbage.

I'm thinking GL crashes like Sky Captains and the World of Tomorrow.

 

[Robert Crawford]

Originally Posted by ArchMike

Only thing I noticed from GL is that it has Blake Lively - the Gossip Girl girl... I can think of one thing she was decent in, and quite a few she's been terrible in. Having her as a love interest made me instantly think of Fantastic Four level of garbage.

I'm thinking GL crashes like Sky Captains and the World of Tomorrow.

She was quite good in The Town.

 

[Paul_Scott]

Originally Posted by Brandon Conway

I can't understand how anyone can consider the Green Lantern effects to be bad CGI. Looks on par to Avatar, IMO. Different subject matter, but it looks exactly what it should look like. Baffling to me.


This is the most hated unseen movie on message boards in a LONG time.

I haven't understood this either. I honestly thought that the uniqueness of the property would be such a breath of fresh air that it would have a good shot at capturing a mass audience- but the early word I'm seeing just ain't great.

And one of the recent clips they kicked out, from the climax of the movie, has dampened most of my enthusiasm. I never have a problem with the quality of the special effects and I don't here- it's how the film uses them (or in the case of the clip I saw, over-uses them).

Out of the four comic sourced movies this summer, it's looking like this will be the big dud after all.


FWIW, Captain America looks sadly derivative to me too. Just as I couldn't understand all the presumptuous hate for GL, I don't get all the love for CA. It could be great, but I just not seeing a whole lot of special and unique in any of the clips or trailers so far.