2007 at the Box Office (1 Viewer)

[TerryRL]

Adam, New Line sold off most of the overseas rights to "The Golden Compass". If the movie pulls in big numbers internationally New Line won't see very much of that money at all.

 

[Adam Lenhardt]

I know, that's what I was calling a stupid move on their part. My comments about New Line being "smart enough not to sell the overseas rights" was in reference to any potential sequels. If Golden Compass is a monster overseas, they still might greenlight sequels even if they don't see a dime of it for "Golden Compass" because they'd have proof that there was money to be made. My guess would be that the sequels would be even more attuned to European sensibilities (and more fearless about the religious aspects.)

 

[TerryRL]

My bad.

As for sequels, even if 'Compass' is able to squeak by the $100 million mark domestically, I seriously doubt there will be any sequels. I believe New Line's "magic number" to even discuss green-lighting a sequel was $150 million.

I think the 'Compass' situation may end up mirroring what Fox went through with "Eragon". That movie earned $75 million domestically and an additional $174.3 million overseas, giving it a worldwide haul of $249.3 million.

While a successful run, "Eragon" cost the studio more than $150 million to make and market. Unlike New Line with 'Compass', Fox retained more than 90% of the international rights. The movie didn't fare very well on home video and Fox ultimately decided that it wasn't worth it to do the following two stories. Especially with the very real likelihood of the films 2 and 3 costing them more than the original did.

I think New Line really made a mistake by letting go of those overseas rights and 'Compass' has the potential to lose the studio a great deal of money (hence my assertion that chairman Bob Shaye's job may be in jeopardy). Tomorrow, New Line execs are probably going to be working very hard to come up with a way to make nice with Peter Jackson so he will be willing to return in some capacity for the two 'Hobbit' movies.

New Line has spent hundreds of millions in the four years since 'The Return of the King' conquered the box office (as well as the Oscars), but they have very little to show for it. Its time to put egos aside and make nice with Peter Jackson.

 

[Claire Panke]

Selling off overseas distribution rights is the same strategy New Line employed to spread the risk on LOTR/FOTR. This time, it may have backfired on them.

NL's *biggest* mistake with Golden Compass was going with Chris Weitz as director and ditching the Tom Stoppard script . Weitz ain't no PJ, who despite his lack of commercial success pre-LOTR was the real deal as a filmmaker.

Nothing in Weitz's resume suggests he was the right guy to helm an epic literary adpatation. Despite the great cast, the excellent art direction and the handsome cinematography, GC simply isn't a very good movie, way too cluttered and lifeless. Weitz can't really shape the material into anything very compelling.

Unlike something like Eragon, the His Dark Materials books are quite fine. Unfortunately, there isn't much to get excited about up on the screen. By trying to appeal to everyone and offend no one, Weitz appeals to hardly anyone. I don't see WOM building legs for it. It's a real shame.

You'd think NL of all studios would have known that big $$ & CGI mean diddly unless you've got a good script, a good director and character development. LOTR & HP 3-5 succeeded because they had all those ingredients. Fantasy is viable. Bad movies are a tough sell in any genre.

 

[JediFonger]

how did eragon do on DVD? will compass make its $ back on DVD? one wonders. if they make a supercut like Blade Runner The Final Cut, that would save it? i'm talking about the ending from the book. if they won't have a sequel anyways, why not just include it on the DVD release.

PS what fx company was hired to do compass? doesn't bode well for them financially, no?

 

[Malcolm R]

I thought it was WETA. They get their money no matter what the film grosses, so it's just a matter of them not having the next two films on their schedule. Other films will fill in, I'm sure.

This year's Holiday season event films are certainly underwheming. I can't think of a single one that I consider a "must see" in theaters. Perhaps "Beowulf" if I ever find the time.

 

[Andy Sheets]

I was talking to my wife after we saw The Mist (which she wasn't crazy about) about what if any movies she might like to see in the theater next. She said as far as she was concerned, not a single thing until May, when Batman and Indiana Jones hit. Ouch

 

[TerryRL]

Rythm & Hues, Cinesite, and Framestore handled the majority of FX on "The Golden Compass". Digital Domain, and various other companies handled several other shots on the movie.

As Malcolm pointed out, FX houses are paid no matter what a film grosses. Their payments are folded in with the rest of the said film's total costs. As many as 10 FX companies worked on various shots for "The Golden Compass". Each were paid for their contributions long before the film hit theaters.

 

[Greg Layton]

Wow, I can think of at least ten I want to see before the month ends based on what the reviews look like...

Bee Movie
I'm Not There
The Savages
Grace is Gone
I Am Legend
Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story
The Kite Runner
Youth Without Youth
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
National Treasure: Book of Secrets
There Will Be Blood
Charlie Wilson's War
The Bucket List

Different strokes I guess.

 

[Andy Sheets]

I should stress that it's not because there's nothing we want to see, but there's a big difference between "would like to see" and "must go to theater NOW". We rent tons of stuff but it's taking more and more to get us to the theater.

 

[Jose Martinez]

weekend actuals are actually less for TGC

$25,783,232

Ouch!!!!

 

[Shawn.F]

I just saw this myself. While it wouldn't be my pick for favorite film of the year (I still can't get 'The Diving Bell and the Butterfly' out of my head and I mean that in a very good way), 'Juno' will definitely be in my top ten. Both the screenplay and Ellen Paige deserve Oscar nominations. It's a terrifically entertaining film that really deserves to be a big hit.

 

[TerryRL]

Looks like the box office came back with a vengeance yesterday as actor Will Smith is headed for the biggest opening weekend haul of his career. The very early estimates have his latest flick, "I Am Legend", earning about $28 million yesterday. The movie will easily pass the $52.2 million launch of "I, Robot" during the summer of '04 to become Smith's biggest opener.

'Legend' looks headed for an opening weekend haul of well over $60 million, marking only the fourth time a movie has debuted north of that total ever for the month of December (joining 'The Return of the King', 'Narnia', and 'The Two Towers').

The studios had been banking on Smith's enormous box office appeal to lift the industry out of a slump that had been going on (for the most part) since the end of the summer season. 'Legend' now looks poised to give the star his seventh consecutive $100 million-plus domestic performer, tying him with fellow mega-stars Tom Cruise and Tom Hanks for the best run of hits in Hollywood history, as well as his 11th $100 million earner out of his last 14 films (since 1995's "Bad Boys" became his first big hit as a headlining attraction).

Also having an impressive debut was Fox's "Alvin & the Chipmunks" with about $13 million, meaning the family flick will open in the neighborhood of $35 million this weekend. To say that this is a surprise is a mild understatement. No one expected this kind of opening for 'Alvin'. The movie could end up giving Fox their fourth $100 million-plus hit of the year (joining "The Simpsons Movie", Die Hard 4, and Fantastic Four 2).

This weekend could see more than $100 million spent by moviegoers on just the top two films. The industry was desperate for this kind of performance and Big Willie and a trio of CG animated chipmunks delivered the goods.

 

[Shawn.F]

Wow. I knew 'Legend' was going to be big, but damn.

 

[DavidPla]

THat's HUGE for "I Am Legend"!

As for "Alvin and the Chipmunks", who would've predicted that it would have a much bigger opening weekend than "The Golden Compass" a few weeks ago.

 

[Jose Martinez]

Not surprised with the big opening. The midnight showing I attended was packed for an Imax film. Plus it was mostly teenagers who have money to spend this holiday season.

 

[Colin Jacobson]

I'm surprised, too. I think the lack of real competition helps - it's not like there are a bunch of other blockbusters out there vying for our attention...

 

[Patrick Sun]

I suspect word of mouth for IAL will be underwhelming (it was for me), but the chipmunks were hilarious and a good family film for the holidays and will get good word of mouth.

 

[Pete-D]

I think people want to get out of the house and go to the theaters, but there hasn't been anything really to see this fall/early winter.

I Am Legend is the first really big release after The Golden Compass which didn't take. And I think it's benefitting a lot from that.

I'm a bit surprised with Alvin & The Chipmunks. Strong opening for that one.

 

[TerryRL]

Friday Estimates

#1 "I Am Legend" $29.5 million
#2 "Alvin & the Chipmunks" $13.3 million
#3 "The Golden Compass" $2.6 million ($34.6 million) 70% Friday-to-Friday drop (OUCH!!!)
#4 "Enchanted" $1.6 million ($87.9 million) 44% Friday-to-Friday drop
#5 "No Country for Old Men" $845K ($31.4 million) 33% Friday-to-Friday drop
#6 "This Christmas" $745K ($44.5 million) 49% Friday-to-Friday drop
#7 "Fred Claus" $715K ($67.4 million) 43% Friday-to-Friday drop
#8 "The Perfect Holiday" $700K ($1.3 million)
#9 "August Rush" $550K ($26.8 million) 52% Friday-to-Friday drop
#10 "Atonement" $535K ($1.7 million) 128% Friday-to-Friday increase

"I Am Legend" earned the second biggest opening day gross ever for the month of December (trailing the $34.4 million tally of 'The Return of the King'), as well as the overall 19th best opening day haul in history (the fifth best for a non-summer release). The film's nearly $30 million Friday haul looks to translate into an opening weekend mark in the neighborhood of $65-$75 million, giving star Will Smith the biggest debut tally of his career.

"Alvin & the Chipmunks" also got off to a great start as it pulled in more than $13 million during its opening day. As reported earlier, look for this one to earn about $35 million this weekend.

Its official, "The Golden Compass" is a big budget failure. The film took a disastrous Friday-to-Friday fall of about 70% and is fading fast. The effects of this latest box office disaster for New Line will be felt for quite some time.