2007 at the Box Office (1 Viewer)

[TerryRL]

From what I understand, the tracking numbers for "The Golden Compass" indicate that it will open north of the $30 million mark this weekend. New Line is hoping for a debut in the $40-$50 million range however. "I Am Legend" is currently tracking the strongest of the big December releases.

 

[Lou Sytsma]

Apparently Darabont is still gung-ho to adapt - The Long Walk.

 

[TerryRL]

I heard, still I wouldn't be at all surprised if that film hinged on how successful "Fahrenheit 451" Is. If 'Fahrenheit' is a big hit (which most expect it will be) than Darabont will have little difficulty getting "The Long Walk" off the ground.

Hooking up with a box office heavyweight like Tom Hanks is a good way to erase the memory of a previous flop. Still, whoever ends up financing "The Long Walk" may want a big star attached to ensure a solid performance at the box office since Darabont's name alone isn't enough to guarantee big ticket sales.

"Fahrenheit 451" is currently expected to hit theaters sometime in 2009, giving Hanks two major releases for the year along with "Angels & Demons".

 

[JediFonger]

the mist will do very well on DVD/HDM.


as for fantasy films, LOTR lends itself to cinema because the books were cinematic to begin with. not every SINGLE book is, very few of them are, and even fewer excellent.

 

[Andy Sheets]

Isn't Darabont also attached to an adaptation of Robert McCammon's MINE?


I'm not sure what you mean here because LOTR is widely considered to be a very non-cinematic book. Tolkien lingers heavily over extraneous details, summarizes important scenes after the fact, the main villain is never actually seen, the characters are generally broad archetypes, and the drama all hinges upon a tiny, inanimate object, among numerous other things.

I think what makes fantasy hard to adapt is that it's just hard to do magic on film that actually feels magical and otherwordly, and speaks to the audience in a spiritual way. Lots of fantasy authors can't even get this right - you read their books and realize that you're not actually reading fantasy, you're reading something like science fiction that uses an alternate universe's phyics mixed with a pre-industrial setting.

 

[DavidPla]

Which is why fantasy failed in the 80s despite the amount of films they tried to push. Only recently with the advance in special effects have audiences been more willing to invest in these worlds. But only Lord of the Rings, Harry Potter and Chronicles of Narnia have proven to be the big blockbusters so far.

 

[JediFonger]

visual fx and technical means isn't what makes a film or novel. it's the story, dialogue, characters that compose granduer and the method in which LOTR is told is very cinematic.

the conflict is very real and PJ was able to show the eye in a metaphoric sense but also cinematically so people understood frodo's plight.

that's why works like LOTR is understandable because it's broken down into the journey of the characters, the old-school dialogue and conflicts of good vs. evil.

the visual fx serve the story.

many of the fantasy films that do NOT succeed rely on fx, location of the world as characters... when they don't invest in the humanity in any of the characters themselves.

 

[TerryRL]

Friday Estimates

#1 "The Golden Compass" $8.8 million
#2 "Enchanted" $2.9 million ($76.1 million) 40% Friday-to-Friday drop
#3 "This Christmas" $1.5 million ($39.2 million) 39% Friday-to-Friday drop
#4 "Beowulf" $1.3 million ($72.9 million) 46% Friday-to-Friday drop
#5 "Fred Claus" $1.65 million ($62.2 million) 21% Friday-to-Friday drop
#6 "No Country for Old Men" $1.60 million ($25.9 million) 10% Friday-to-Friday drop
#7 "August Rush" $1.2 million ($22.8 million) 31% Friday-to-Friday drop
#8 "Awake" $1.1 million ($8.5 million) 51.% Friday-to-Friday drop
#9 "Hitman" $1.0 million ($33.4 million) 46$ Friday-to-Friday drop
#10 "The Mist" $760K ($21.6 million) 44% Friday-to-Friday drop

"The Golden Compass" debuted at #1, but didn't set the box office ablaze as many (namely New Line execs) had hoped. The movie should open in the area of $25-$30 million. Not too impressive for a movie that cost the studio well over $200 million to make and market. At this point, the studio is hopeful that the movie will show legs similar to that of last year's "Night at the Museum", which opened with a modest $30.4 million, but legged its way to a spectacular $250.9 million domestic haul.

At the end of the day, its doubtful (although not impossible) that "The Golden Compass" will show those kind of legs and the studio will probably have to look to the film's overseas grosses to break even.

 

[Andy Sheets]

New Line might want to start getting those rights to The Hobbit sorted out.

 

[DavidPla]

I can see "Golden Compass" showing a bit of legs. Even with all the bad reviews (Night at the Museum got the same) it's the only film of its kind for the Christmas season. Its only real competition is "Alvin and the Chipmunks" but that skewers much younger than Compass and "I Am Legend", "Sweeney Todd", "Aliens vs Predator" and "Walk Hard" don't seem to be going for the same audience either.

That said, it's still a pretty bad flop for what they were advertising as the NEW Lord of the Rings trilogy. I wonder if they're now going to do everything they can to get Peter Jackson to sign on for "The Hobbit".

 

[TerryRL]

In a word...yep.

If "The Golden Compass" goes on to under-perform at the box office, New Line will do whatever they can (i.e. swallow a lot of sh*t) to get Peter Jackson and co. back in some form for the two 'Hobbit' features, likely only as writer (along with Fran Walsh and Phillipa Boyans) and producer (with Walsh) with someone of his choosing at the helm since his plate is so full right now.

After completing "The Lovely Bones", Jackson will go right into helming one of the three upcoming "TinTin" movies with director Steven Spielberg, as well as producing "The Dam Busters" feature.

Concerning New Line, since the release of 'The Return of the King' in '03, the studio has had only five big hits (films earning more than $70 million domestically). "The Notebook" ($81.0 million), "Monster-in-Law" ($82.9 million), "Wedding Crashers" ($209.3 million), "Hairspray" ($118.9 million), and "Rush Hour 3" ($140.1 million).

The studio stands to lose a lot of money on "The Golden Compass" and its only logical that they'd look to return to proven territory with "The Hobbit". I wouldn't be surprised if the studio goes out of the their way to mend fences with the Jackson camp as a result of the disappointing turnout for 'Compass' thus far.

 

[Jose Martinez]

Until The Hobbit comes out, I don't think any fantasy film outside of the Narnia or Potter films will be a major hit. Stardust was very good yet failed at the box office. Even Beowulf may hover only around the $100 mil mark. And of course, there's Eragon.

 

[Kevin Grey]

If Stardust had the marketing that Eragon and Golden Compass got, I bet it would have done really well. I think the issue is one of quality- Lemony Snickett, Eragon, Beowulf, and Golden Compass have all had mixed at best audience receptions.

 

[TerryRL]

Weekend Estimates

#1 "The Golden Compass" $26.1 million
#2 "Enchanted" $10.7 million ($83.9 million) -35%
#3 "This Christmas" $5.0 million ($42.8 million) -37%
#4 "Fred Claus" $4.7 million ($65.6 million) -15%
#5 "Beowulf" $4.4 million ($76.0 million) -46%
#6 "No Country for Old Men" $4.2 million ($28.9 million) -3%
#7 "August Rush" $3.52 million ($25.1 million) -30%
#8 "Hitman" $3.50 million ($35.8 million) -42%
#9 "Awake" $3.3 million ($10.7 million) -44%
#10 "Bee Movie" $2.6 million ($121.0 million) -41%

In the wake of the lower than expected opening tally of "The Golden Compass", the box office was once again down compared to last year as business was off 18%. Business was down an even steeper 40% compared to this frame in '05. The top 12 films combined to earn a very mediocre $73.15 million this weekend.

2007's total domestic haul now stands at $8.816 billion, representing a 4% increase over last year ($8.462 billion), up 9% compared to '05 ($8.084 billion), a slight 1.5% bump over '04 ($8.682 billion), and a 4% improvement over '03 ($8.488 billion).

Total ticket sales now stand at 1.287 billion for the year. At this same point, '06 had sold about 1.286 billion admissions, '05 moved 1.263 billion, '04 was sitting on a total of 1.398 billion, while '03 had moved a whopping 1.408 billion tickets.

New Line's "The Golden Compass" pulled in a very disappointing $26 million opening tally this weekend, coming in well under industry expectations. The film also pulled in $55 million during its overseas debut. Most believed the movie would pull in between $30-$40 million. If 'Compass' goes on to have a solid international run, New Line won't see very much of that money since they sold off most of the overseas theatrical rights. The movie, which cost in excess of $200 million to make and promote, looks as if its going to be one of the year's more expensive disappointments.

'Compass' earned a solid $7,405 average from its massive 3,528 theaters, which was the best of the top ten. The studio is hopeful that the movie will have solid legs during the coming weeks, but all hopes of a $200 million-plus domestic run may have been dashed, on top of dreams of a potential big-money franchise.

Bob Shaye's tenure as chairman of New Line may be coming to an end, as well as the star Nicole Kidman's status as one of the industry's highest paid actresses. She's headlined a series of box office disappointments, yet commands as much as $15 million per movie. That has all (very likely) come to an end. Shaye, who was once Peter Jackson's most vocal opponent, may end up losing his job due to the huge budgets and lack of box office hits during the last four years. The next several weeks at New Line are going to be very interesting.

Disney's "Enchanted" has now earned close to $84 million. Sony/Screen Gems' "This Christmas" continues to impress as it nears the $43 million mark. WB's "Fred Claus" is showing strong legs and has now pulled in more than $65 million. Paramount's "Beowulf" has tallied just under $76 million.

Miramax/Paramount Vantage's brilliant "No Country for Old Men" continues to have an impressive run in theaters as it had the best hold of the top ten, losing only 3% of its business from last week. The film is nearing the $30 million mark. WB's "August Rush" is sitting on a domestic mark of $25 million. Fox's "Hitman" has earned nearly $36 million, and MGM/Weinstein's "Awake" rounds out the top ten. The film has now tallied close to $11 million.

This weekend also saw a pair of Oscar hopefuls open in limited play. Focus Features' "Atonement" pulled in $817K from its 32 theaters, giving it a stellar average of $25,531. But it was Fox Searchlight's "Juno" (boasting a fantastic performance by star Ellen Page) that had the more impressive debut. The film earned $420K from only seven locations, representing a massive $60,000 average.

Next weekend the studios hope megastar Will Smith's star power will be on full display as WB's "I Am Legend" hits theaters. Fox with counter with the family flick "Alvin & the Chipmunks", while Yari Film Group will release "The Perfect Holiday".

WB will use the launch of "I Am Legend" to give fans their first glimpse of next summer's "The Dark Knight". The IMAX presentation will boast the movie's seven-minute prologue, while regular theaters (as well as the internet) will be treated with the film's teaser trailer.

Naturally, the studios are hoping for big openings for both "I Am Legend" and the 'Chipmunks'. "I am Legend" has been tracking very well and it'll be interesting to see if that translates into a big opening or not. I haven't seen any tracking numbers for the 'Chipmunks', but I think its safe to assume it'll have a solid opening with the family crowd.

 

[Chuck Mayer]

I think I Am Legend will open very well. I think Compass will have a decent hold over the holidays, but three digits might not happen domestically. So, so there is no way the two sequels will be made. I did think it would crack $30M, though just barely.

 

[Adam Lenhardt]

I think there's still a chance for sequels if it does insane overseas. New Line would be smart enough not to sell the overseas rights if they were. One thing's for sure, though: the sequel's budget would not be allowed to balloon to $200 million plus. The last Harry Potter movie didn't cost that much.

 

[Chris]

I admit, Juno is easily the film my wife & I are looking forward to most. Very effective cute advertising campaign in a movie that looks like a cute concept.

 

[Shawn.F]

Just a heads up: The new French drama from Julian Schnabel (Before Night Falls),The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, is one magnificent film. It opened this weekend in very limited release, but if you see it pop up at a theater near you over the next month or two, go and see it. You'll be glad you did.

 

[Adam Lenhardt]

I reviewed it after catching an early press screening at the beginning of November. It's definitely in the running for my favorite film of the year.

 

[Andy Sheets]

I think I Am Legend is going to open very strong. Even my mom, who's pretty much stopped going to movie theaters, was excited about it when I last spoke to her. It just seems like one of those cases where almost everyone I know is really keen to see it (hell, I'd probably be interested if I wasn't a fan of the book).