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2007 at the Box Office (1 Viewer)

Adam_S

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I am now conviced that all the responsibility for the performance of Golden Compass belongs with the person that decided to neuter the story and cut off the ending.
 

Robert Crawford

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Due to the weather in the eastern half of the country, I have a feeling that some of those box office estimates will be lower once the final numbers are tallied.
 

TerryRL

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Weekend Estimates

#1 "I Am Legend" $76.5 million
#2 "Alvin & the Chipmunks" $45.0 million
#3 "The Golden Compass" $9.0 million ($41.0 million) -65%
#4 "Enchanted" $6.0 million ($92.3 million) -44%
#5 "No Country for Old Men" $3.0 million ($33.6 million) -27%
#6 "The Perfect Holiday" $2.96 million
#7 "Fred Claus" $2.31 million ($69.0 million) -50%
#8 "This Christmas" $2.30 million ($46.0 million) -54%
#9 "Atonement" $1.9 million ($3.0 million) +133%
#10 "August Rush" $1.8 million ($28.1 million) -49%

Thanks to the monster openings of both "I Am Legend" and "Alvin & the Chipmunks" the box office was up a massive 46% compared to last year, as well as being 26% stronger than this frame in '05. The top twelve films combined for a total gross of $153.2 million, which marks the third best three-day weekend haul ever for the month of December, trailing only the Christmas weekends of 2003 ($165.8 million) and 2002 ($155.9 million).

2007 earned the fastest time ever to the $9 billion mark as the year-to-date gross now stands at a whopping $9.003 billion, representing a 5% increase over last year ($8.606 billion), up 9% over '05 ($8.254 billion), a slight 2% bump over '04 ($8.823 billion), and a 5% improvement over '03 ($8.558 billion). This marks the fifth time in six years that total revenues have climbed past the $9 billion plateau.

In terms of overall ticket sales, '07 has now sold about 1.314 billion theater admissions. At this same point, '06 had moved 1.308 billion tickets, '05 sold about 1.290 billion, '04 moved a whopping 1.421 billion, while '03 sold a stellar 1.419 billion.

WB not only earned the biggest December opening haul ever (besting the $72.6 million start of 'The Return of the King'), but also tallied their second best non-Harry Potter opening in history (trailing the $81.8 million debut of "The Matrix Reloaded). Overall 'Legend' ranks as the studio's seventh best opening weekend haul. The film's monstrous per-theater average of 21,224 from its 3,606 locations was easily the best of the top ten.

The massive $76.5 million launch also gave star Will Smith the best opening mark of his career (besting the $52.2 million start of "I, Robot") and solidified his standing as the industry's most bankable star. The industry owes a great debt to Smith because the box office had been struggling for the most part since the end of the summer season and got a big boost of energy from "I Am Legend", as well as "Alvin & the Chipmunks".

'Legend' sold an estimated 11.2 million tickets this weekend. Those patrons were also treated to the two previews (the IMAX prologue and teaser trailer) of next summer's highly anticipated sequel "The Dark Knight". WB couldn't have asked for a better launching pad for the start of what will be a very intense marketing push for TDK.

'Legend' will go on to become Smith's seventh consecutive $100 million-plus performer, tying him with the personal bests of both Tom Cruise and Tom Hanks. Smith's upcoming summer action flick "Hancock" could give the megastar an unprecedented eighth straight $100 million hit. This is why Smith is among the highest paid stars in this business.

Fox also got an unexpected gift as "Alvin & the Chipmunks" got out of the gates with a much stronger than anticipated $45 million debut. The family flick earned the fourth best non-#1 opening tally in history, as well as the best debut mark ever for star Jason Lee as the headlining star.

Absolutely no one expected 'Alvin' to open as strongly as it did, on top of blowing away the numbers of "The Golden Compass". With a 41% Friday-to-Saturday increase in business, look for this one to have a very healthy run in theaters and easily cross the century mark. The film's stellar average of $12,949 from its 3,475 theaters was the third best of the top ten.

New Line's "The Golden Compass" took a steep 65% hit in business and is dying fast. The $200 million-plus flick has only earned about $41 million thus far and looks headed for a final tally in the neighborhood of about $60 million. New Line execs are very likely going to do whatever they can to make nice with Peter Jackson so he can oversee "The Hobbit", because the studio is really struggling.

Disney's "Enchanted" has so far tallied nearly $93 million. Miramax/Paramount Vantage's "No Country for Old Men" has now earned $33.6 million. Yari Film Group's "The Perfect Christmas" got off to a so-so start as it earned $2.55 million, giving it a soft average of 1,952 from its 1,307 theaters.

WB's "Fred Claus" is sitting on a domestic haul of $69 million. Sony/Screen Gems' "This Christmas" has now earned $46 million. Focus Features' Oscar hopeful "Atonement" expanded to 85 more locations this weekend, resulting in a massive 136% increase in business. The movie's impressive per-theater average $15,837 from its 117 locations was the second best of the top ten. "August Rush" rounds out the top ten as it has now earned more than $28 million.

Fox Searchlight's Oscar hopeful "Juno" continues to excel in limited play. The film expanded to 33 more theaters and saw an impressive 248% increase in business. The film also had a stellar $36,000 per-theater average.

Next weekend the industry hopes to continue the momentum as five new releases hit theaters. Disney's "National Treasure: Book of Secrets", Universal's "Charlie Wilson's War", Sony's "Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story", WB's "P.S. I Love You", and DreamWorks/Paramount's "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street" all go into wide release.

With both "I Am Legend" and "Alvin & the Chipmunks" expected to continue packing theaters, look for a monster showing next weekend from the top twelve films. The 'National Treasure' sequel is currently the favorite to top the box office. Many believe the film will earn more than $40 million next weekend. We'll see what happens.
 

TerryRL

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"Waterworld" cost $175 million and made $88.2 million.

"The Adventures of Pluto Nash" cost $120 million and made $4.4 million

"Town & Country" cost $90 million and made $6.7 million

"Ishtar" cost $55 million and made $14.4 million.

"Heaven's Gate" cost $44 million and made $3.5 million

"The Golden Compass" cost over $200 million and will make about $60-$65 million.

TGC won't be the biggest bomb in history, but it'll definitely be remembered as an extremely expensive failure New Line. Many expect chairman Bob Shaye to lose his job as a result of the string of box office failures the studio has had to endure since the end of the LOTR trilogy in '03.
 

Adam Lenhardt

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What really rubs salt in the wound is the stellar overseas gross. The picture held onto the number one spot in the international box office and has topped $90 million outside of the U.S. It's going to be one of the top grossers of the year outside of the States for 2007.
And of course, since New Line sold off those territories, they don't see a penny of that.
 

TerryRL

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Given what New Line spent on the movie, they obviously thought they had a shot at doing numbers similar to those of the first 'Narnia' film ($291.7 million), as well as pulling in major league figures on DVD and in toy sales. Selling the overseas rights wasn't supposed to come back and bite them because of the other revenue streams generated by the picture.

Talk about irony. The only place the movie is making money is overseas and New Line won't see any of that revenue. With the movie dying off at a much quicker pace, the odds of it having a big run on DVD are very, very slim.
 

Adam Lenhardt

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It's easy to Monday morning quarterback now, I suppose, but the differences are pretty obvious. Pullman's series is known over here, but never the chart topper of a Harry Potter (or even Goosebumps for that matter.) It also espoused a viewpoint that directly criticized the values held by a majority of the American population.

My father introduced me to The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe because he'd loved it as a child. C.S. Lewis's themes feed directly into the values Americans hold in high esteem. And Disney started building the buzz for the film in a very public way well over a year before the picture premiered.

Mediocre buzz aside, it was always going to be a much steeper uphill climb that Narnia domestically.
 

JediFonger

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here in Boston the snow fell on thurs and sunday morning, but not friday+saturday night and that got a ton of people in the cinema anyways.

1. i'm legend, i don't see this having any legs. i predict large fall by the next week and ending with somewheres around 200ish if that. most of the people who wanted to see smith will have seen him by the next few weekends.

2. fantasy films in general, it was on a come back after star wars, indy, willow-type stuff in the 80's but stopped by 90's. it takes good works that are translatable to be sustain the genre not ANY fantasy works.

finally, i think sweeney todd will be the sleeper end of the year hit. burton+depp both coming off of stellar work they've just done will carry them right into '08 with dollar signs.
 

Malcolm R

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Given the marketing avoids any and all reference of the musical aspects of the film, I'm not sure people will be happy to find themselves in a musical when the trailers all look like a dramatic thriller. Word of mouth might not be that great if people feel hoodwinked.
 

Holadem

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Since in Hollywood it's never too early to talk about a trend, Will Mr Smith become Mr Holidays Hit? (Much like his July 4th streak years ago).

--
H
 

TerryRL

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I have no idea what New Line got for the overseas theatrical rights to TGC, but hindsight is 20/20 and that's a sale they are now regretting.

Will Smith will see just how hot a Hollywood commodity he is in '08 because he has a big movie opening during the Independence Day holiday frame ("Hancock"), as well as a big December release ("Seven Pounds").

"Hancock" will be Smith's first July 4th weekend opener since "Men in Black II" began his current run of $100 million-plus domestic performers back in '02. "Seven Pounds" will see Smith reunite with "The Pursuit of Happyness" director Gabriele Muccino. Smith and Sony are obviously hoping the film will yield similar results (i.e. big box office and an Oscar nod).
 

TerryRL

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The weekend actuals are in and "I Am Legend" opened with $77.2 million (passing Harry Potter 5 as the WB's biggest opening of the year), while "Alvin & the Chipmunks" earned a potent $44.3 million.

"I Am Legend" also earned the fourth best non-sequel (or prequel) opening tally ever, as well as the fourth highest debut of the year (and best for a non-sequel).
 

Robert Crawford

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Interesting that the estimates were low for I am Legend and over for Alvin. I'm surprise the weather didn't play a bigger role in hurting both estimates.





Crawdaddy
 

Chuck Mayer

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Crawdaddy,
I'm sure it has something to do with the magic Sunday formulas (kid's movie with animated animals in the second weekend of December, accounting for weather and competition and football and...). I'd love to see those things.

That's a BIG opening for IAL...guess folks were starving for Will Smith in a blockbuster!
 

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