*** Official "2003 Box Office Prediction and Discussion" Thread (1 Viewer)

[Seth Paxton]

Personally I think Cruise is a good actor, generally underrated by the high art crowd due to the fact that people confuse the "icon" with the person behind it, but there can be no doubt that the guy can seriously open a film.
Just look at what Last Samurai has to offer in its ads. Does it really come off as being much better than M&C? I would say no. Both are historical action pieces (at least by advertising standards) and both have good leading actors as the star hero. It's not like Crowe is sniffing butt here since he has Gladiator in his resume, not to mention the Oscar (and noms).
But Cruise appears to be coming out hella stronger than Crowe in this case. The average Joe loves to heckle the Cruise image but they still go see his films too.
Honey and Haunted Mansion are set to be the next two victims of "the film sucks" drops according to most reviews. Honey will probably last longer since most of the negative reviews are based on it being too formula and sappy (not to mention that AO Scott and Ken Turan even gave it a thumbs up...2 of the few majors to do so).
Haunted Mansion shows me that the truth is that Murphy has lost it. You can't blame the concept since better filmmakers (and perhaps the far better "comic" character Depp created) made PotC a huge hit.
In my mind Nutty Proffessor and Doctor Doolittle were more a result of the idea around them (like Murphy in all the outfits) than his own pure comic power. The sequels showed that he really does have trouble carrying films like he did back in the 80's.
I know we have Shrek and I agree that he CAN be funny. I just don't think he has the comic mojo that he used to. I sure hope we aren't adding Mike Myers and Steve Martin to that list speaking of people who recently worked with Murphy.
Of course at this point it looks like both Murphy and Myers can still OPEN a film...but the WoM that builds after that point isn't too pretty. Sooner or later that's going to catch up with them, and I think it already has hurt Martin's star power.

 

[Matt Stone]

Personally I think Cruise is a good actor, generally underrated by the high art crowd due to the fact that people confuse the "icon" with the person behind it, but there can be no doubt that the guy can seriously open a film.

I've always been a huge Cruise defender. He does a fantastic job of blending "safe" films and reletively arty films (EWS, Magnolia, Vanilla Sky, etc).

 

[TerryRL]

Weekend Estimates

#1 "The Last Samurai" $24.4 million
#2 "Honey" $14.0 million
#3 "The Haunted Mansion" $9.5 million ($46.1 million)
#4 "Elf" $8.1 million ($139.6 million)
#5 "Dr. Seuss' The Cat in the Hat" $7.3 million ($85.5 million)
#6 "Bad Santa" $7.0 million ($27.2 million)
#7 "Gothika" $5.3 million ($49.6 million)
#8 "The Missing" $4.4 million ($22.1 million)
#9 "Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World" $3.8 million ($72.6 million)
#10 "Love Actually" $3.7 million ($48.9 million)

WB's Oscar hopeful "The Last Samurai" ascended to the top spot this weekend with it's $24 million haul. With the announcement of the Oscar nominations only a month away, WB is expecting a very leggy run from 'Samurai'. Especially considering the majority of megastar Tom Cruise's hit films had very strong legs during their respective runs in theaters. 'Samurai' also gives Cruise the 14th #1 opening of his career. This is why he gets the big bucks.

This weekend also saw the Universal film "Honey" opening surprisingly strong with a $14 million haul. The true test for the film, which stars Jessica Alba, will be if it can maintain solid legs in the next few weeks. Still, the $14 million opening was better than most had expected.

The rest of the top 10 saw pretty steep declines this weekend, which is normal following the Thanksgiving holiday frame. Disney's "The Haunted Mansion" took a 60% hit and saw it's cume rise to $46 million. Still, the movie is on course to top out with more than $85 million. Not a blockbuster, but a solid hit for the studio. It should really clean up once it hits home video next year.

New Line's smash hit "Elf" took it's biggest percentage decline of it's run this weekend as it fell off by 62%. The comedy, which stars Will Ferrell, has so far nabbed close to $140 million. This one should end up north of the $180 million mark before it's all said and done. Also expect this one to do extremely well next year on home video.

Last weekend's top flick, 'The Cat in the Hat', saw a very steep decline of 70%. The film has so far earned more than $85 million and should end it's run in the area of $115 million. While a $115 million million run is nothing to feel bad about, Universal execs did expect the movie to do much better. As with 'Haunted Mansion' and "Elf", 'Cat in the Hat' will probably do even bigger business on home video. Still, I wouldn't be surprised if Universal invokes some budget cuts on the sequel.

Dimention's dark comedy "Bad Santa" had the smallest percentage decline of the top 10 as it took a moderate 42% hit. The film has so far tallied a little over $27 million and should find it's way past the $50 million mark before it's run ends. Not bad for a movie that cost less than $40 million to make (including marketing costs).

WB's horror film "Gothika" took a 58% hit this weekend. The movie has earned close to $50 million since it's release and is on course to end it's run with more than $65 million in the bank, thus making it a very solid hit for the studio.

The Sony drama "The Missing" took a 59% decline in business this weekend, as it's cume hit $22 million. A final domestic tally in the area of $35 to $40 million is expected.

The Fox/Miramax/Universal collaboration, 'Master and Commander', took a steep 68% hit this weekend. With $72 million in the bank thus far, a final tally of $85 million is now expected.

Universal's romantic comedy "Love Actually" fell off by 54% this weekend and saw it's tally rise to just under $49 million. This one should be able to find it's way past the $60 million mark by the time it's run concludes.

Next weekend will see the openings of WB's comedy "Love Don't Cost a Thing", Sony's comedy "Something's Gotta Give" and the Fox comedy "Stuck on You". Tim Burton's "Big Fish" also begins limited engagements next weekend as well, it's going wide on Christmas Day. The battle for #1 should be pretty tight next weekend. It'll also be interesting to see how well "The Last Samurai" holds up.

 

[Edwin Pereyra]

With Return of the King's release only a few days away, are we going to see Dave Mansell's reappearance around these parts one more time?
~Edwin

 

[Paul_Scott]

Still, I wouldn't be surprised if Universal invokes some budget cuts on the sequel.

hopefully in the 100% range.

 

[Vickie_M]

Tim Burton's "Big Fish" also begins limited engagements next weekend as well, it's going wide on Christmas Day.

Really?? I thought it opened Limited Christmas day and opened Wide on January 9. Where did you read this? I need to know where to get more up-to-date information. I got those dates from http://movies.yahoo.com/shop?d=hp&cf=prev&id=1808403164
If they've moved up the dates that's a very good thing!
Glad to see Bad Santa doing well.

 

[Matt Stone]

With Return of the King's release only a few days away, are we going to see Dave Mansell's reappearance around these parts one more time?

Haha
I need to get out and see some of these flicks...I've been so busy with end of semester stuff at school that I haven't had a chance to see anything new for weeks.

 

[Patrick Sun]

I was sort of surprised that "The Last Samurai" didn't take over $30 million this opening weekend, given how much of a marketing push I saw of it (and I skip commercials when I watch TV, and I still managed to not avoid the marketing campaign for this film). Will word of mouth be good enough for it to hold off "Stuck on You" or "Something's Gotta Give?

 

[Chris]

Well, this just in.. despite what was previously said in this thread about BO potential of "Revolutions" it looks clear to me that it has almost no chance to make $150M.

 

[Ray Chuang]

I was sort of surprised that "The Last Samurai" didn't take over $30 million this opening weekend

Patrick, the major snowstorm that ravaged the Northeast last weekend pretty much surpressed box office revenues in one of the most populated parts of the USA. If that snowstorm did not hit, The Last Samurai would probably have taken in more like US$30 million for the first 3-day box office weekend.

 

[TerryRL]

Friday Estimates

#1 "Something's Gotta Give" $5.2 million
#2 "The Last Samurai" $4.4 million ($37.2 million)
#3 "Stuck on You" $3.3 million
#4 "Love Don't Cost a Thing" $2.2 million
#5 "Bad Santa" $1.84 million ($31.5 million)
#6 "Honey" $1.80 million ($16.7 million)
#7 "Elf" $1.6 million ($143.1 million)
#8 "The Haunted Mansion" $1.4 million ($49.0 million)
#9 "Dr. Seuss' The Cat in the Hat" $923K ($87.4 million)
#10 "Gothika" $911K ($52.1 million)

Sony claimed the #1 spot yesterday with the romantic comedy "Something's Gotta Give". The film, which stars Oscar winners Jack Nicholson and Diane Keaton, took in over $5.2 million on Friday and should end the weekend with more than $15 million.

The WB Oscar hopeful, "The Last Samurai", took a bigger than expected 46% hit off of it's pace from a week ago. The movie should end up with more than $12 million this weekend.

The latest comedy from the Farrelly brothers, "Stuck on You", took in over $3 million yesterday. The Fox film will earn in the area of $10-11 million for the weekend.

WB's comedy "Love Don't Cost a Thing" snagged the #4 spot. The Hip Hop version of the teen comedy "Can't Buy Me Love" earned more than $2 million yesterday and should see a debut weekend mark of about $7 million.

Dimention's dark comedy "Bad Santa" rounds out the top 5 as it took in $1.8 million yesterday, easing just 10% from it's pace a week ago.

 

[Patrick Sun]

This is going to be a pretty lackluster BO weekend in the month of December. Everyone is waiting for ROTK to show up. At least there's a couple of films I want to see that are opening Christmas.

 

[TerryRL]

This weekend is very much the calm before the storm. A couple of the local theaters in my area have already sold out their showings for ROTK through next weekend. Needless to say, expect this one to be HUGE.

While New Line knows they have a hit movie, here is a list of some of the things many expect the movie to achieve during it's theatrical run...

-It's expected to eclipse the $28.5 million haul of 'The Phantom Menace' to become the biggest Wednesday bow in history. FOTR took in $18.2 million and TTT earned $26.1 million during their respective Wednesday openings.

-ROTK is expected to pass the $100 million mark within it's first 5 days of release. FOTR took 8 days to reach that mark, while TTT did it in 5.

-Many believe that ROTK will beat the $339.7 million domestic tally of "Finding Nemo" to become the biggest hit of the year. Most speculate that it'll reach $350 million.

-ROTK is also expected to become only the second film in history to earn over $1 billion worldwide. FOTR earned close to $863 million worldwide, while TTT earned an even better mark of $920 million. Don't be too surprised if "Titanic" has some company on that VERY short billion dollar list.

-The industry is also predicting that ROTK will be the film to bring Oscar glory to Peter Jackson and co. Many in the industry already see the movie as the favorite to win Best Picture and Best Director. Aside from the technical awards it'll likely be nominated for, Sean Astin is being singled out for his performance as Sam in the movie. There's serious talk of him getting a Best Supporting Actor nomination.

Judging from the reaction to the film when I saw it a few days back, I'm inclined to agree that it's going to have little difficulty in achieving some (if not all) of these lofty expectations. The madness begins on Tuesday night (actually Wednesday morning) at midnight.

 

[Alex Spindler]

Now that's what I call setting the bar high.

I'll be contributing. So far, I've seen each midnight showing, saw it with friends the day after, and then once more with family. And that's only counting my vacation time.

 

[TerryRL]

Weekend Estimates

#1 "Something's Gotta Give" $17.0 million
#2 "The Last Samurai" $14.0 million ($46.8 million)
#3 "Stuck on You" $10.0 million
#4 "Love Don't Cost a Thing" $6.5 million
#5 "The Haunted Mansion" $6.27 million ($53.8 million)
#6 "Bad Santa" $6.205 million ($35.9 million)
#7 "Elf" $6.200 million ($147.6 million)
#8 "Honey" $5.0 million ($20.0 million)
#9 "Dr. Seuss' The Cat in the Hat" $4.1 million ($90.7 million)
#10 "Gothika" $2.7 million ($53.4 million)

Sony's new romantic comedy "Something's Gotta Give" took the #1 crown this weekend. Though things were slow this week, the movie (which stars Oscar winners Jack Nicholson and Diane Keaton) managed a very solid $17 million take. Look for this one to have solid legs in the coming weeks.

Last weekend's #1 movie, "The Last Samurai", took a moderate 42% hit and has so far tallied close to $47 million. With the film expected to garner serious award consideration (Golden Globes, Oscars, etc.) look for 'Samurai' to become the 9th $100 million grosser out of star Tom Cruise's last 11 movies.

Fox's latest comedy from the Farrelly brothers, "Stuck on You", had a very soft debut of $10 million. Don't be surprised if this one fades fast from theaters.

WB's comedy "Love Don't Cost a Thing" also had a soft debut of just over $6 million. As with "Stuck on You", this one should also fade pretty quickly.

Disney's "The Haunted Mansion" took a moderate decline of 33% this weekend as it's total neared the $54 million mark. A final domestic tally of more than $75 million is expected.

Dimention's dark comedy "Bad Santa" fell off by only 11% this weekend and is turning into one of the year's most surprising sleeper hits. It's so far earned just under $36 million. Look for this one to reach $60 million before it's all said and done.

New Line's smash hit "Elf" took only a 22% hit this weekend and saw it's total hit $147 million. Look for a final tally of more than $170 million.

Last weekend's #2 movie, "Honey", took a steep 60% decline this weekend. After a solid opening, the movie is fading fast. A final domestic mark in the area of $45 to $50 million is now expected. Despite it's fast fade, it'll still end up being a solid hit for Universal.

'Cat in the Hat' took a 41% hit and saw it's total pass the $90 million mark. The Universal film should end it's run with between $110 and $115 million.

WB's horror film "Gothika" took a 48% hit and saw it's total rise to $53 million. The film is on course to top out in the area of $60 million.

As stated in one of the above posts, this weekend was very much the calm before the storm. Next weekend will see the massive debut of 'Return of the King'. The third and final installment to the hugely successful 'Lord of the Rings' trilogy begins it's assault on the record books one minute past midnight on Wednesday morning. The only question remaining is how fast it passes the century mark. As good ol' boy Jim Ross has often said, "Business is about to pick up."

 

[Lou Sytsma]

Don't forget some of us are seeing it before midnight on Trilogy Tuesday!

 

[Malcolm R]

Somewhat heartening to see CITH will probably just squeak by the $100M mark. It's just a shame word of mouth didn't catch up with it a bit earlier.

 

[David Echo]

So about this Return of the King thingy? Shall we say $125 million by Sunday (it will pass $100 million on Saturday) and $400 million domestic when all is said and done. I know it's a bit high on the final domestic but it is the holidays and I'm in a generous mood.

Dave

p.s. BTW, I also had TTT hitting $350 million domestic and was a bit high of that one as well.

edited to prevent looking stupid

 

[Seth Paxton]

I can't imagine ROTK opening really much better than TTT just because TTT wasn't really missing any cyliders itself so there's not a lot of room for improvement.

However, having seen the film I feel certain that it will have longer legs than TTT. It's really an incredible ride and quite the crowd pleaser. For the first two films I wanted to go back as much just to get more LOTR action as a book reader.

But for ROTK it overcame the fact that I knew the story and still really enthralled me in a pure cinema sense. Now I want to go back to experience that Raiders/Star Wars effect ROTK gave me as a film. Very much a "woo hoo" crazy ride type of film that should get the buzz cranking for repeat biz.

I think I originally predicted ROTK going shorter than TTT. That's going to be wrong. ROTK seems certain to earn the most of the 3 films even though it likely didn't add more viewership with TTT (few people waited until a TTT rental to get into LOTR, unlike FOTR where many people discovered it on DVD).

$350m seems very attainable.

 

[Tino]

Seth
I dunno about that, I say ROTK will open bigger that TTT. Over $30 million today alone. When all is said and done, I say $150 million by Sunday night and $450 million domestic. I also think it will be only the second film, after Titanic, to gross over a billion dollars worldwide.
It deserves every penny!