*** Official "2003 Box Office Prediction and Discussion" Thread (1 Viewer)

[Malcolm R]

Can't speak for everyone, but though I love Looney Tunes, I have zero interest in watching them interact in a "real" environment with "real" actors. Give me a good, fully-animated story (perhaps even with animated "celebrities") and I'll be there. But I've never watched "Space Jam" and have little interest in "LT: Back in Action" despite being one of the first in line for "LT: Golden Collection" when it went on sale.

 

[Colin Jacobson]

Can't speak for everyone, but though I love Looney Tunes, I have zero interest in watching them interact in a "real" environment with "real" actors.

I'm with you there. Really, I have virtually no interest in modern cartoons with the characters at all. They just don't live up to the standards set by the old ones. Same thing with the classic Disney characters - modern versions mostly bite. It's even worse with the WB characters since it just ain't the same without Mel Blanc...

 

[Patrick Sun]

It's even worse with the WB characters since it just ain't the same without Mel Blanc...

But no one lives forever...

 

[steve jaros]

Colin, i know it's hard to believe, but it's worse than 'grinch'...

 

[Colin Jacobson]

But no one lives forever...

Understood, but that doesn't mean the cartoons have to continue. Peanuts died along with Charles Schulz. Yes, I know others are involved in Looney Tunes, but for me, it's not interesting without Blanc...

 

[TerryRL]

Friday Estimates

#1 "Dr. Seuss' The Cat in the Hat" $10.5 million ($63.2 million)
#2 "The Haunted Mansion" $9.7 million ($19.2 million)
#3 "Elf" $9.4 million ($117.0 million)
#4 "Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World" $5.1 million ($60.0 million)
#5 "Gothika" $5.0 million ($33.5 million)
#6 "Bad Santa" $4.6 million ($9.4 million)
#7 "The Missing" $4.4 million ($9.0 million)
#8 "Timeline" $3.5 million ($7.6 million)
#9 "Love Actually" $3.3 million ($38.5 million)
#10 "Brother Bear" $2.0 million ($74.9 million)

Family films ruled the roost on Friday as the Thanksgiving holiday weekend got off to a great start. Each of the top 3 movies could end up earning over $30 million for Friday thru Sunday portion of the holiday frame.

Universal's 'Cat in the Hat' suffered only a 6% dip from it's pace from a week ago and is well on it's way to taking in over $30 million in it's sophomore frame.

Disney's "The Haunted Mansion" is off to a great start as it tallied just under $10 million yesterday. A debut weekend haul of more than $30 million is expected. Depending on it's legs, it's safe to assume that 'Mansion' is going to become the 11th $100 million performer for star Eddie Murphy, as well as his second this year following the success of "Daddy Day Care".

New Line's "Elf" continues to show great legs as it saw a whopping 74% increase in business from it's Friday-to-Friday numbers. "Elf" also became the 24th film of 2003 to pass the century mark. Look for "Elf" to also end up with about $30 million for the weekend.

Oscar hopeful, 'Master and Commander', saw a 13% increase in business on Friday and should end the weekend with between $16 and $18 million. The Fox/Miramax/Universal collaboration has so far tallied $60 million and it should have enough steam to eventually sail past the $100 million mark.

WB's horror film, "Gothika", took only a 24% hit off of it's pace from a week ago. The film should end up with about $15 million during it's sophomore frame.

 

[TerryRL]

Weekend Estimates

#1 "Dr. Seuss' The Cat in the Hat" $25.5 million ($77.0 million)
#2 "The Haunted Mansion" $25.2 million ($35.0 million)
#3 "Elf" $22.1 million ($130.1 million)
#4 "Gothika" $12.71 million ($41.1 million)
#5 "Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World" $12.70 million ($67.4 million)
#6 "Bad Santa" $12.4 million ($16.8 million)
#7 "The Missing" $11.7 million ($16.5 million)
#8 "Timeline" $8.4 million ($12.6 million)
#9 "Love Actually" $7.8 million ($43.2 million)
#10 "Brother Bear" $4.9 million ($77.7 million)

Universal's 'Cat in the Hat' remained the #1 flick in the land as it was hit with a very moderate 35% decline. 'Cat' saw it's total rise to $77 million. 'Cat in the Hat' will become the fifth $100 million grosser of star Mike Myers' career. At this point, 'Cat in the Hat' seems to be on course for a final domestic haul in the area of $150 million.

Disney's "The Haunted Mansion" took the #2 slot as it debuted with a 5-day haul of $35 million. The Eddie Murphy comedy should do decent business in the coming weeks and add yet another film to the long list of $100 million earners for the year.

New Line's "Elf" continues to show great legs as it saw an 18% increase in business this weekend. The movie has so far tallied $130 million and is looking more and more like it's going to end it's run north of the $200 million mark.

WB's horror flick, "Gothika", saw a moderate decline of 34% (which is great considering it's a horror movie) and it's total now stands at just over $41 million. Star Halle Berry has her first legit hit as a headlining star and expect her salary to increase for her first project following "Catwoman". "Gothika" should end it's run in the area of $65-$75 million.

Oscar hopeful 'Master and Commander' was hit with only a 16% dip in business this weekend. The Russell Crowe adventure has so far tallied more than $67 million and seems to be headed for a final domestic haul of more than $100 million.

Dimention Films' dark comedy, "Bad Santa", had a solid debut this weekend as it's 5-day haul came in at just under $17 million. With a budget of only $18 million (not costing marking costs), this is going to be a very profitable hit for the studio.

Sony's Oscar hopeful "The Missing" had a disappointing debut as it snagged a 5-day total of $16.5 million. The studio is hoping the movie will have sturdy legs in the coming weeks as we enter into "awards season".

Paramount's "Timeline" also had a disappointing debut as it's 5-day total came in at only $12.6 million. The $80 million budgeted film will probably fade quickly from theaters.

Universal's "Love Actually" continues to have strong staying power as it took only a 9% hit this weekend. The movie has so far tallied just over $43 million.

Disney's "Brother Bear" rounds out the top 10. It was hit with only an 8% dip in business and it has so far earned close to $78 million.

This weekend also saw Oscar hopefuls "Radio" and "Mystic River" both pass the $50 million mark.

Next weekend will see the releases of Universal's "Honey" and WB's Oscar hopeful "The Last Samurai". Look for 'Samurai' to debut at #1 as "Elf" continues it's incredible run in theaters.

 

[Malcolm R]

Universal has apparently raised their estimate for "Cat" to $25.6M. Most likely so they can claim #1 in Monday's press regardless of the actual numbers.

 

[TerryRL]

Thanks for the heads-up.

Universal blamed it on a "studio error". It'll be interesting to see where both films actually finished when the final numbers are announced tomorrow.

 

[ChrisMatson]

Matrix Revolutions was bumped from nearly 1,000 theaters and out of the top 10. I still think that DVD may be coming sooner than later.

Too bad about the Cat, but there are not many "family" movies out, despite the apparent vulgarity in this stinker. At least Elf is staying strong.

 

[Seth Paxton]

You know, while it does depict intense warfare casualties, M&C is almost a family film, at least good for the teen/near-teen that could handle something like Saving Private Ryan.
It's a damn shame that M&C won't make $200m. I know it happens every year, but this is just a perfect example of a great spectacle film doing poorly while lots of crap spectacle makes more in the first 2 weeks before word of mouth puts it in the toilet.
I'm wrong about a lot of things in this thread, but I was right about Elf. It's not going anywhere because it is good AND it delivers what it offers (another big key for good WOM). And as I said before, they just didn't give it enough screens or it would have earned a lot more of this money in the first 2 weeks and would then fall off more rapidly.
Speaking of WOM, how about the decision to try a WOM build-up on Last Samurai with the sneak release. I like the trailers and think that they probably do have a hit on their hands and want to give it some more space to earn before ROTK hits.
Also, let's not forget that the Oscars go a month earlier this year which means noms will come out earlier as well. If M&C is not still out then it would seem likely for a rerelease (I think it will be held in theaters). Films like ROKT, Last Sam, will be getting those bumps (assuming of course) while they are still running much stronger at the BO. Not sure how that will alter the effect of noms (will it be a PCT increase or just a flat bump the same as last year (for LOTR at least).
RE: Universal (CITH) - lame move.

 

[Claire Panke]

Seth, glad you finally made it to M&C.

I agree, M&C is appropriate for older children. There's far less blood and gore than in SPR. ( I think Fox's marketing this film as an actioner (Gladiator on the waves) hasn't helped. It's a shame M&C won't do the business it should, although its sealegs are pretty good so far. TLS is the film that could put a serious dent in it this weekend, as that will attract a young crowd as well as the action/epic lovers. I'm hoping M&C will get some noms and a re-release.



We went back to see M&C for a second time Saturday evening (Regal Village Park) and the 7:50 showing was sold out. Interestingly, the ticket seller told the family of 4 in front of us to see M&C - Cat was sold out, and the ticket seller's comment was " your boys will like M&C - it's really good. Cat In The Hat isn't that good and I don't think your children would like The Missing." (The Missing was the only other showing they could make in that time slot besides M&C.) The one boy looked to be about 11 and the other around 12 or 13. They sat in front of us and seemed to enjoy it, asking a lot of questions after the film ended.

BTW, a friend of mine and her 8 year old walked out of CITH last week (applause please.)

 

[Seth Paxton]

Yeah, what bothers me is that this isn't Chicago or The Hours which obviously are genres fitted for different and perhaps limited audiences.

M&C is exactly what these people want, just done much better than normal. The kind of film a lot of them will rent and tell you at the watercooler the next day that they saw a really good film last night, to which you respond in your own head "Duh, I told you 6 months ago when you went to CITH.".

 

[Paul_Scott]

M&C is exactly what these people want, just done much better than normal. The kind of film a lot of them will rent and tell you at the watercooler the next day that they saw a really good film last night, to which you respond in your own head "Duh, I told you 6 months ago when you went to CITH.".

(thought ballon) "arrgghh..."

 

[Malcolm R]

Well, it appears CITH did indeed hang on to the #1 spot, but just by a whisker, while grosses for both CITH and HM were both over-estimated by about $1M. Final figures have CITH at $24.5M while HM is at $24.3M. Universal was closer to the real number with their first estimate, but that would have left HM in #1 with an inflated estimate.

"Bad Santa" also swapped places with "Master & Commander," finishing ahead of the Russell Crowe film for the weekend.

 

[Rob P S]

Universal's 'Cat in the Hat' remained the #1 flick in the land as it was hit with a very moderate 35% decline. 'Cat' saw it's total rise to $77 million. 'Cat in the Hat' will become the fifth $100 million grosser of star Mike Myers' career. At this point, 'Cat in the Hat' seems to be on course for a final domestic haul in the area of $150 million.

Don't look at me. I had nothing to do with it.

 

[TheBat]

Bad Santa went to number 1 on monday's box office!
http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/
JACOB

 

[Malcolm R]

Well, it stands to reason that family, kid-oriented films will drop farther on weekdays. But perhaps there's some decent word-of-mouth at work for "Bad Santa" as well?
I liked it.

 

[TerryRL]

Friday Estimates

#1 "The Last Samurai" $7.9 million
#2 "Honey" $4.8 million
#3 "The Haunted Mansion" $2.3 million ($38.8 million)
#4 "Elf" $2.2 million ($133.7 million)
#5 "Bad Santa" $2.0 million ($22.1 million)
#6 "Dr. Seuss' The Cat in the Hat" $1.78 million ($79.9 million)
#7 "Gothika" $1.72 million ($46.0 million)
#8 "Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World" $1.16 million ($70.0 million)
#9 "The Missing" $1.14 million ($18.9 million)
#10 "Love Actually" $1.11 million ($46.2 million)

Megastar Tom Cruise saw yet another of his films open at #1 as his latest adventure, "The Last Samurai", pulled in close to $8 million yesterday. The WB Oscar hopeful is on course for a debut weekend haul in the area of $25-$27 million. "The Last Samurai" marks the 14th #1 opening for Cruise out of his last 19 movies. Of the 5 films that didn't open at #1 ("The Color of Money", "Rain Man", "Born on the Fourth of July", "Far and Away" and "Magnolia"), 2 of them ("Rain Man" and "Born on the Fourth of July") ascended to the #1 spot during their respective runs in theaters.

Universal's "Honey" opened at #2 with a very strong mark of $4.8 million. The film, which stars Jessica Alba, should end up with between $12-$15 million this weekend.

Disney's "The Haunted Mansion" took big hit of 77% off of it's pace from a week ago. New Line's box office smash, "Elf", saw an equally steep Friday-to-Friday decline of 75%.

Rounding out the top 5 is Dimension's "Bad Santa" which took a 55% dip off of it's pace from last weekend.

Other percentage declines from last week...

'Cat in the Hat' fell 82% (OUCH!)
"Gothika" fell 65%
'Master and Commander' fell 77%
"The Missing" fell 73%
"Love Actually" fell 65%

The weekend following Thanksgiving has always yielded big declines, but Universal has got to be concerned with the jaw-dropping 82% fall of 'Cat in the Hat'. Not to mention that it was #1 last weekend and is now #6.

 

[Larry Sutliff]

CAT IN THE HAT was such garbage that this is one of the few times that I'm happy to see a film's performance collapse so dramatically.

I think the snowstorm in many parts of the Northeast hurt business yesterday, and will continue to do so today. The numbers for the top three would have been a little higher otherwise IMHO.