Fantasy Football 2004 Discussion and Advice (1 Viewer)

[Philip_T]

Quentin, tough call, but the Eagles are rolling. The starters will probably keep going strong until they bench them after the 1st quarter in week 17, crushing your hopes of winning your league. I know, its happened to me.

Deciding on what to do yet again at WR. I dropped the ever-frustrating Porter to pick up Burleson who treated me well for a few weeks. But then Porter went off, and Moss is back. So with Burleson's potential reduced roll, and Porter playing the Chef's twice in the last 5 weeks. Im thinking of jumping on him if someone with a higher waiver # doesn't get him 1st. Curry is already gone. Any thoughts?

RB's don't look good for me this week:
C. Portis vs NYG (why Portis? why have you forsaken me?)
M. Pittman vs ATL (tough DEF)
D. Staley vs er, nevermind, this is a scoring only league.
T. Jones vs MIN (not bad matchup wise)
Leaning towards Portis/Pittman. I know as soon as I bench Portis, he'll have his 3 TD day and I'd go to the funny farm. What did he have last week??? Something like 27 yards????

 

[Brandon_T]

Well so far the trade is working out for me. Moss scores a TD, and Pittman, who I replaced Deuce with is smoking Deuces numbers. 7-5 tied for second, and a chance to make the playoffs.

 

[Scott Merryfield]

Philly is still playing for home field advantage, so they will not be packing it in anytime soon. I'm sure the Eagles want to make sure the Falcons do not get to stay nice and warm in their dome should they get to the NFC title game against Philly.

Philip, it sure would be tough to bench your first round draft pick (Portis). I would go with him and Pittman. Expect the Vikings to stack the line vs. the run (TJones) and make Hutchinson beat them.

I just lost another player to a season ending injury -- Browns linebacker Andra Davis. That makes 12 players of mine that have lost significant games due to injury. The infirmary report:

Gannon, CGarner, TGlenn, DBranch, THenry, Leftwich, Arrington, ADavis (WR), ADavis (LB), SMorris, JFargas, JHarris.

 

[Quentin]

Go with Pittman. He is so hot right now. If he can't run, he'll catch a TD!

This year has been brutal with injuries. All year long. I'm a lucky one there...and I finally get Heap back!

When will Philly win Home Field? Two weeks? I actually hope they lose a couple in a row and have to play tough wks. 15-17.

 

[Brad Porter]

Philly is 10-1. Atlanta is 9-2. The next best NFC record has four losses (both GB and Minn), and likely won't enter into the discussion on top seed. Philly currently owns a seeding advantage over Atlanta, meaning that Philly needs to lose a game for Atlanta to have a shot at the top seed. Unless Atlanta loses a game, Philly can't clinch the top seed until after week 16. For every game that Atlanta loses, Philly can clinch home field one week sooner.

The NFC playoffs are seeded (and home field advantage determined) as follows:

1. The division champion with the best record.
2. The division champion with the second-best record.
3. The division champion with the third-best record.
4. The division champion with the fourth-best record.
5. The Wild Card club with the best record.
6. The Wild Card club with the second-best record.

The following is the order of procedures used to break standings ties

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs). Not applicable. Philly and Atlanta don't play each other.
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division. Not applicable. Philly and Atlanta are in different divisions.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games. Probably not applicable. Philly has only lost to Pittsburgh, a team that Atlanta doesn't play. Atlanta has lost to KC and Detroit, neither of which will play Philly. If Philly loses to St. Louis then they will lose this tiebreak since Atlanta beat St. Louis. If Atlanta loses to Carolina they will lose this tiebreak since Philly already beat Carolina.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference. Philly is undefeated against NFC opponents. Atlanta lost to Detroit. If Philly loses to an NFC opponent and Atlanta wins out, then this tiebreak is not applicable, since they would have the same record against NFC opponents.
5. Strength of victory. I don't know how this is measured for certain, but Philly currently has a 301/247 PF/PA ratio and Atlanta has a 232/215, giving Philly a 53 to 17 pt wider margin of victory over Atlanta. This means that Atlanta has to outscore their remaining opponents by 36 pts more than Philly outscores its opponents in order to survive this tiebreaker. It's highly unlikely that more tiebreakers will be needed past this one.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.

So all that summed up means that Philly can't afford to lose until Atlanta loses. So all of you McNabb, TO, and Westbrook owners should be shouting "Go Falcons!"

Brad

 

[Scott Weinberg]

Whoa. Very thorough, Brad. But all those calculations will be for naught. Eagles will get that #1 seed....I hope. I was SOOOO pulling for the Saints last Sunday, but the Falcons nipped 'em in the end. Darnit. I've been rooting against Atlanta for the past five weeks! (This is all just strategy talking; I have nothing at all against the Falcons. I actually kinda like 'em.)

Remaining schedule for Philadelphia:

Home vs. Green Bay
At Washington
Home vs. Dallas
At St. Louis
Home vs. Cincinnati

Remaining schedule for Atlanta:

At Tampa Bay
Home vs. Oakland
Home vs. Carolina
At New Orleans
At Seattle

Those schedules, and the fact that the Eagles already have one win up on the Falcons, have me cautiously optimistic.

Either way, we're gonna get Eagles vs. Falcons in the playoffs...and that's gonna be one great game.

 

[Quentin]

Alrighty...GO FALCONS!!

 

[Philip_T]

Quoting myself,,,,,

Im packing my bags for the funny farm right now. I picked up S. Jackson STL last night and started him in place of Portis for 2 reasons. 1- STL was playing the woeful Niners who allow lots of rushing TD's. 2- Portis had only 3 TD's all year and was playing a decent NYG Def. Bottom line, Jackson = No TD's, Portis = 2 TD's so far. That hurts in a scoring only league. I suck again.

 

[Brandon_T]

Who would have thought that F'ing Brian Westbrook is gonna knock me out of the playoffs, with is very common 156 yards receiving and three touchdowns. Did I mention he is a RUNNING BACK, not a wide reciever. SO PISSED OFFasdjry-q9w3857291385u

 

[Scott Weinberg]

Brandon,

With McNabb on his game, ANYONE on this team can have a huge day. Sorry you got bumped from your playoffs. But I just got knocked out of TWO money leagues in one day. Argh.
And I have McNabb in one of 'em!

 

[Mark Dubbelboer]

damn you bulger!

 

[Scott Merryfield]

I got "McNabbed" yesterday, too. I'm down by 80 points going into tonight, with Alexander and Julius Jones still to play. McNab scored 48 points by himself. If McNab had an average game, I would still have an outside chance.

 

[Steve Kuester]

Hi Guys,
A quick question. For my #2 running back...

Thomas Jones at Jacksonville or
Arlen Harris at Carolina

Jones is the starter, although he split a decent number of carries last week with the A-Train. And Mike Martz has said Harris will start this week since Faulk and Jackson are injured. Who would you play?

Thanks much.

 

[Mark Dubbelboer]

Steve,
I'd have to lean towards jones. I'm not all that familiar with the rb situation in chicago but I can tell you that I wouldn't trust Mike Martz with his announcement. Both Faulk and Jackson may be injured, but as far as I know neither of them is offically out. Plus carolina is a pretty solid defensive squad of late. With that being said Jacksonville isn't exactly a defense you'd want to run against but I'd still go with T.J.

 

[Scott Merryfield]

Steve, I agree with Mark -- Jones is probably the safer bet (but neither RB is a great option).

My only starting dilemma today is at QB: Brady vs. Cincy or Leftwich vs. Da Bears. Considering that Chicago's run defense is weaker than their pass defense and they shutdown Culpepper last week, I'm leaning heavily towards Brady, who let me down last week with only 9 points while the Pats were scoring 42.

 

[Steve Kuester]

Thanks,
You don't have to tell me neither is a great option... I've tried everyone for my 2nd RB this year. It's been hit or miss - mostly miss. I was leaning towards Jones this week anyway.

Scott - I would say Brady over Leftwich for all the reasons you just stated.

 

[Mark Dubbelboer]

yeesh, well both of your options kinda stunk eh Steve
on the plus side at least jones had all the carries so that in subsequent weeks you know he has a better chance of being a strong play.

I got lucky and had griese in because of Bulger's injury, a couple too many turnovers but massive yardage and 3 td's is always nice.

 

[Brandon_T]

Funny thing is after my bitching about Westbrook last week, I lost by less than two points. Well thursday night, the NFL awareded a half sack to Keith Brooking, that nets me exactly two points, and a win. That is the longest I have had to wait for a win in fantasy football history.

Well, this week I have beaten my opponent and am now firmly in the playoffs.

Brandon

 

[Mark Dubbelboer]

alright. i'm a keener and want to get my lineup set early this week

I need two rb's, two wr's and then one more for fun

Harrison - Bal
Muhammad - Atl
Johnson, C. - Buf

Goings - atl
lewis, J. - Ind
Dunn - Car
Droughns- KC
Johnson, La

The injury bug struck me in a positive way this week, as the three bottom running backs would have probably been backups this week but injuries thrus them to forefront.
I had been running with three wr's because all three were white hot, however I have a feeling I might have to bench one of them this week. any ideas?

 

[Philip_T]

Mark,
For the 2 WR spots, I would pick Harrison and Muhammad. I think Manning was able to throw against Bal last time they played and Muhammad is MuHOTHOTHOT! Buf has the 4th best pass DEF IIRC.

RB's: I would go with Lewis and Droughns. Now that Bollers throwing arm has been spotted, it may start opening up the running game and while Bell (DEN) was impressive last week, he has a 3rd degree separated shoulder. Shanahan called him out this week, but I would think it to be too hard to play with a bad wing.

One for Fun: La. Johnson. DEN does have a pretty good run DEF, but the game is in KC where they play tough against DEN. In fact, DEN in is only 1-12 in KC in December. KC will be playing the spoiler against a Denver team team who is strugling lately.