DVD's obsolete in 5-10 years? (1 Viewer)

[Estevan Lapena]

Not to mention if your computer explodes...all gone!

 

[Adam Lenhardt]

Even cable service-based On Demand services won't replace it. VoD may replace rentals at some point, but they won't replace DVD sales, because you can't own a VoD selection like you can own a DVD on a physical disc.

 

[Todd Robertson]

I'll be happy if my current dvds last 15 to 20 years.

 

[george kaplan]

Even if you could have perfect video on demand (i.e., instantaneous download to my television in perfect quality), which ain't going to happen, I'd still prefer dvds because there's nothing to guarantee that the movie you want to see will be available when you want to see it. Disney would put films on moratorium. Lucas would make sure you have to see the version he wants you to see of Star Wars. Every time the political winds shifted to the right, distributors would cave in to pressure to only make censored versions available for download. So-called "demand from consumers" would get us only the pan & scan version of Ben-Hur.

Dvd may become obsolete someday, but it will be from HD-DVD, not VOD.

 

[Rob Lutter]

Before I saw your second sentence, I thought you were just taking the news very hard. "I need a hug."

LOL

 

[Patrick McCart]

DVD's will probably last as the main home video format for 15 more years.

However, there will be overlap with HD-DVD possibly half-way.

 

[Thomas Newton]

This "study" is pushing the DIVX fantasy all over again: rent-forever, own-never.

Ignore the technical aspects of Internet streaming for a moment. Would you like to trade your DVD collection for Hollywood's "promise" that a streaming-only future will be better than what DVD gives us today?

We all know that cable companies would NEVER show a movie in MAR, and NEVER interrupt the programming on a cable-only channel with tons of ads.

 

[Carl Johnson]

I don't think that the numbers that they use add up to anything approaching DVD being obsolete in 5 years....


Even if they are right a new format being used by a third of all U.S. television households certainly isn't big enough to replace DVD. By 2008 I'd expect 95% of homes to have DVD players. If 19% of revenue comes from streaming and downloading that still leaves quite a bit for DVD.

 

[MarkHastings]

How can DVD's go obsolete so quickly - they're still selling VHS tapes!

 

[JeromeS]

In 5 years time HD-DVD should be here and unless they're looking to send that down, why would anyone want to watch some crappy download. Besides, the cable companies are having trouble sending any more than the few HD signals that are available now, are you telling me in 5 years they'll be able to meet the demand for everyone who's subscribed plus the regular HD channels that will be available then. I don't think so.

 

[Marc_Sulinski]

Another issue here is that once I own my DVD, I can watch it whenever I want, as many times as I want. I do not believe that this option will be available with VoD. The few instances where I see VoD available, the download expires after a set period of time. Am I alone in thinking that the movie-buying piblic will not tolerate this?

 

[Clint B]

FWIW, I agree completely with all of you. This "study" is absolutely ridiculous. While I do believe that DVD and CD will eventually be replaced with something "better" I don't see that happening for a long, long time. What this article proposes is certainly not the "better" replacement.

 

[Craig S]

I'm glad to see that everyone here recognizes this as hogwash.

I personally think a LOT of these type of stories are fed to the media by content-owners (i.e. the studios), who would LOVE to have a pay-per-view model in place (and that's what this is).

illegal file trading, which has caused an estimated $700 million of lost CD sales since 1999

WHEN is some reporter going to challenge these ridiculous RIAA-generated claims?? They are blaming the nose dive their business has taken entirely on this bugaboo. Hey, RIAA - listen up, assholes: I own over 2400 CDs. My CD-buying has gone WAY down in the last 5 years. Is it because I download everything now?? NO!!! I've downloaded about 5-10 songs in that entire time. My buying has gone down because most of the "product" (I hesitate to call it music) you are putting out these days SUCKS!!

 

[Jonny P]

There is a difference between watching a Quicktime, Real, or Windows media short video and collecting movies, television shows, music, et cetera on DVD and CD.

Sure...I watch things like movie trailers on the net and I watch internet-exclusive making-of type short documentaries.

However, I am on a T1 line at the office when I am doing that. Even then, it isn't always seemless.

There are times when loading can be slow. There are other times when the video fails to load. There are still other times when the particular application crashes because I have been using too many apps at once and something has to give.

I absolutely hate to watch video on my computer. I do it when I need too, but it isn't ideal.

Sometimes VoD can make sense for a program you wouldn't be able to watch any other way in your local market -- like say for example a football game that was only being exclusively webcast.

However, the streaming usually looks pretty bad. The only streaming that I have liked is Apple's Quicktime 6 streaming...and even then there will be buffering issues every once in a while.

Many companies (like Enron, Qwest, and even Montana Energy) moved a lot of their money to broadband investments a few years ago because analysts told them it was the "wave of the future" and would make them a lot of money.

Well...I hate to say it, but it ended up bankrupting a lot of companies who had no business entering the tech market.

When they find a way to get consumers broadband with a good pipeline for about $9.95 per month, then we might see a situation where VoD grows. However, it will never takeover.

What it will take to make VoD more appealing (dare I even bring this up) is when they come up with programming languages for the internet that are very small, require little bandwidth, but look and sound fantastic.

This is where technologies like MPEG-4 come into play.

There are many people who download software on the internet, but there are many applications that we as consumers like to own a CD. That will continue into the future and I don't see an end to that trend.

Consumers love DVDs. They are easy to use. Easy to find. Inexpensive. And they are incredibly durable and easy to store (well, unless it is my collection that is at about 350).

 

[DaViD Boulet]

I can A):
1) BUY a HUGE bandwidth pipe,
2) BUY the right to download the media,
3) BUY the blank media disks,
4) BUY the media storage cases,
5) BUY the printer paper,
6) BUY the printer ink,
7) Download the media,
8) Write the media to disk,
9) Print the Storage case cover,
10) Watch the media.

or, I can B):
1) Drive to my BB,
2) BUY the media,
3) Drive home
4) Watch the media.

or even more simply:

1) I click on the DVD on a webpage with my mouse.
2) A few days later the DVD arrives in my mail.
3) I watch the media.

IMO, I *am* downloading media on-line. I click on it on the web and then a hard-copy gets sent to my home saving me the trouble of downloding any file myself. Essentially I'm downloading a hard-copy

 

[MarkHastings]

IMO, I *am* downloading media on-line.

That's pretty funny So the Fed-Ex guy is your T1 line? Then the T (in T1) would stand for 'Truck'

 

[Thomas Newton]

So the Fed-Ex guy is your T1 line?

 

[Sean*O]

Won't happen. It's Pay Per View for crying out loud. My local cable company (Cox San Diego/Oceanside) is already offering this Video On Demand service.

I never use it myself.

Maybe it will make a dent in the DVD rental market, but not in the DVD collector's market.

CD's & DVD's will of course one day be 'obsoleted' and replaced as a medium (probably by small flash-card type storage, or crystals), but the medium won't be utterly usurped by streaming pay-per-view video on demand.

Maybe those behind that article have an interest in streaming media stocks or something?

 

[Craig W]

I agree that this just a pipe dream of some studio execs whom want to charge you every time some one wants to watch their titles. DIVX anyone? We know what a huge success that was? How is VoD any different? VoD has had some success, but in the long run I don't think consumers will give up their right to own their own personal collections.

 

[TimJS]

Via the PR firm, of course, here's some more flack .

Tim