DVD's obsolete in 5-10 years?

Discussion in 'DVD' started by Clint B, Sep 3, 2003.

  1. Clint B

    Clint B Second Unit

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    Maybe this isn't the right place to post this, but I saw an article on Yahoo News today that said "experts" are predicting the slow death of DVD and CD as viable media in 5 years. I'd love to know your thoughts. The link is below.

    Virtual Delivery Seen As Death To Discs
     
  2. Rob Lutter

    Rob Lutter Producer

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    I want something I can hold.

    THAT is why Video-on-Demand will never work.
     
  3. Haden

    Haden Supporting Actor

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    Obsolete in 5 years? Not gonna happen. DVD will be around for a good 15-20 years at least.
     
  4. Magnus T

    Magnus T Supporting Actor

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    Yup. As a collector and a HTF buff there's something I really enjoy about showing off my DVD collection on a shelf in cases with artwork to friends. Showing them my movie collection on a computer screen is not the same...
     
  5. Christ Reynolds

    Christ Reynolds Producer

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    i'll never download anything, i will always buy discs. i can also see the quality of the presentations slowly diminish as soon as they deliver the content over the internet, i dont know why. there wont be any more '2-disc' special editions, you will just download one large chunk. if there is no money to be made in extras, you can bet that we wont see many.

    CJ

    edit---imagine the horrible COMMERCIALS we will have to deal with!
     
  6. Ricardo C

    Ricardo C Producer

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    All streamed content available today is very low quality, below VHS. I don't see THAT replacing DVD anytime soon.

    And assuming DVD-level streamable video does become a reality, how many people are going to be willing t spend hours downloading it over current internet connections? I'd rather just drive to the local B&M and buy the disc.

    That study reflects more wishful thinking than anything else.
     
  7. Richard_D_Ramirez

    Richard_D_Ramirez Second Unit

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    Hmmmm....

    I can A):
    1) BUY a HUGE bandwidth pipe,
    2) BUY the right to download the media,
    3) BUY the blank media disks,
    4) BUY the media storage cases,
    5) BUY the printer paper,
    6) BUY the printer ink,
    7) Download the media,
    8) Write the media to disk,
    9) Print the Storage case cover,
    10) Watch the media.

    or, I can B):
    1) Drive to my BB,
    2) BUY the media,
    3) Drive home
    4) Watch the media.

    I'm too lazy and frugal. I'll stick with B). [​IMG]

    In all seriousness, the number one problem with VOD, is bandwidth. Unless a major compression scheme is in place without a loss in media quality, the general public does not have the bandwidth or the time to be downloading 4gig of data for just one movie.

    I currently have a broadband connection at home, and even with that size a pipeline, I still don't have the patience to tolerate even trailer downloads at 25meg!

    VOD killing the DVD? I think not...

    8^B
     
  8. Jonny P

    Jonny P Supporting Actor

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    There will always be some sort of removable media that will be used for home entertainment.

    Those who download music off the internet usually rip the songs onto a CD. There are players like Apple's iPod and other portable music storage devices, but removable media is here to stay.

    For example, before DVDs there were LaserDiscs. DVDs were a natural evolution from that particular media.

    Within CDs and DVD there may be improved and enhanced technologies that will offer better compression and storage, but those devices are here to stay for many, many more years.

    The statistics on the number of Americans who have highspeed internet is really pretty low. Many companies bankrupted themselves in the late 90s by moving into broadband thinking it would "be their salvation." The general public simply doesn't like the monthly fees that they have to pay for such service.

    Broadband is needed for video and audio on demand.

    But high quality video has a price...the massive file sizes quickly fill up hard drives. In essence, such video and audio needs to be stored somewhere else (i.e. a DVD or a CD).

    Many internet companies throttle down the number megabytes of content their members can download in a month. In some cases, they are required to pay for a service that will cost ~$100 per month for that sort of bandwidth.

    $1200 per year is okay if you make money using the internet for a business, but the average consumer doesn't spend that much per month buying CDs or DVDs.

    Plus...it brings into question the whole issue of video and audio piracy.

    Anyone remember all the experts who said back in 1985 that movies on VHS would eventually replace movie theaters??? People said that and it hasn't happened.

    CDs have been around for nearly 20 years. They provide the sort of durability and universal acceptance that consumers like. The fact that sales have declined has as much to do with the fact that there simply aren't as many artists with "wide ranging appeal" releasing albums these days as anything else. There are more "niche" artists today.

    DVDs continue to grow in popularity. In essence, DVD combines the virtues of CDs, with the element of high-quality digital audio/video.
     
  9. Greg_S_H

    Greg_S_H Executive Producer

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  10. Dennis

    Dennis Second Unit

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    Thank goodness, I was about to put up my whole collection on E Bay! [​IMG]

    I can't see the upside to this, for the studios, unless they control the content, meaning you're unable to record it. The article seemed to be pure speculation but if enough people read it, it might hurt DVD/CD sales, just in time for Christmas! [​IMG]
     
  11. MarkHastings

    MarkHastings Executive Producer

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    This is the BEST part of that Yahoo article:
     
  12. Drew Mertz

    Drew Mertz Stunt Coordinator

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    DVDs have got on faster than any audio or video media in the past. Way too much money has been invested into the format for it to end that quickly.
     
  13. Mike Graham

    Mike Graham Supporting Actor

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    If DVDs were discontined within five years, the main stream format they tried to follow it up with would have a really, really hard time finding an audience since no one would trust it to stay around for long.
     
  14. Matthew_Millheiser

    Matthew_Millheiser Supporting Actor

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    Hogwash. I can't use a Video-on-Demand case or insert to de-seed pot. Screw them. [​IMG]
     
  15. StevenFC

    StevenFC Second Unit

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    Are these people serious? I'm going to watch choppy video on my hdtv?? You've got to be kidding. And boy is "Video on Demand" ever an oxymoron. Human beings are definetely "gatherers." We like our stuff.

    And here we go with the whole "we're losing money" issue again. They figure finances the way the government does. You can't lose money on something that doesn't exist. Sure, if someone steals a physical DVD from the store--yes, you've lost money. Sure you've missed out on a potential sale. But buy that reasoning they could say that they've lost money because they haven't released a certain movie yet. Hell, I could say I've lost out on millions because that damn bus won't rear-end my car and let me recoup millions in damages! Of course to say that, I'd have to assume that the bus is going to hit me eventually.

    Piracy is a bad and illegal thing--no question. They certainly have a right to make a profit, and no one begrudges them that. I love movies. And if the production of movies ever actually became threatened by piracy I'd be screaming the loudest to shut down the local street vendors and file sharing programs. But I wouldn't shed any tears for the music and movie industries. When they stop paying actors twenty plus million dollars to make mostly crap, and stop raising ticket prices, then I might feel for them.

    In closing let me say--DVD is just fine, you're making money hand over fist. Just leave well enough alone and let the market and technology sides of it evolve naturally. The money will still be there.
     
  16. Estevan Lapena

    Estevan Lapena Stunt Coordinator

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    Not going to happen.
    People are being over optimistic with the internet. DVD's like VHS are the popular choice because of the convenience and simplicity. The equipment is not nearly as expensive to watch DVDs then a computer that would have to download movies with some sort of ultra T3 line and take up 4gb of your hard drive space. Some people are not as computer savvy as others. With DVD's its a simple as put in the disc, and play. HD-DVD will also take a long time to make its stake in the peoples eye. Because like any format that has been released, it takes time to find its audience. HD-DVD requires up to date hardware and some big titles to get anyone’s attention. The first wave of players will be extremely expensive and I’m not sure if people would adopt this format as quick as they did with regular DVD's. Personally I think this supposed “death of DVD” is nothing more than a wrongful speculation. If VHS could live this long, I think DVD could as well.
    AND from a business perspective why would they want to kill such a marketable new format like DVD this fast?
     
  17. Ed L

    Ed L Agent

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    Agreed....let the JSP's have the VOD for their full frame fix of flicks. With HD-DVD on the horizon (1-2 yrs?) for the rest of us we can enjoy the greater experience of blue laser media in our homes.

    Ed -
     
  18. Eric Brunton

    Eric Brunton Agent

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    Who wants to have a bunch of movies throught VOD. Would they be able to have a DD or DTS track? Even if they do, I would need a bandwidth line the size of the Alaska pipeline. I'll never fall for the scam, I want to be able to look at my collection and HOLD my dvds.
     
  19. Josh L

    Josh L Stunt Coordinator

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    Probably one of the most ridiculous news stories I have ever read.

    Idiots....[​IMG]

    Just like e-books are going to replace paperbacks :rolls eyes:
     
  20. Dan Rudolph

    Dan Rudolph Producer

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    VoD will only work with broadband. And by broadband, I mean much wider than we have now. I would think the equipment woud be too expensive to make it very practical.
     

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