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DVD's obsolete in 5-10 years? (1 Viewer)

ChuckSolo

Screenwriter
Joined
Jun 26, 2003
Messages
1,160
I think the first step to this way of thinking is the so called "self destructing" DVD. For the life of me I can't figure out who on earth would want to watch a VOD movie or program and have to pay for it again and again if you want to rewatch said program. The only way I can see VOD working is for programs like live concerts and exclusive sporting events not readily available via regular broadcast or Pay per View channels. It's amazing how stupid the content providers think we are.
 

Chris_Eff

Stunt Coordinator
Joined
Dec 12, 2002
Messages
100
I have seen some different takes on this article and I am again amazed at how these futurists make money and get press coverage. Just like all the people who predicted B&M stores would be replaced by Internet stores in 5 years:rolleyes:
However this article realy pissed me off. I first read the article at MSN but I then found a better one at Videostoremag.
Here are some quotes from Josh Bernoff, principal analyst at Forrester and author of the report “From Discs to Downloads.

“Music and studio executives are finally beginning to understand they must create new media services through channels that consumers will pay for. Consumers have spoken — they are tired of paying the high cost of CDs and DVDs, and prefer more flexible forms of on- demand media delivery,” he said. “Additionally, technology trends like increased broadband adoption and cheap, widespread storage have made it possible for consumers to easily manage their digital entertainment at home.”
What "Consumers" have spoken? Where, when, how come my wallet didn't count? I have a cable modem and a solid PC but there is no way that a downloaded or streamed movie at my computer desk is my choice over owning a DVD and watching it with my Wife or friends in my family room theater. MAYBE if I set up a HTPC but that is a stretch. I was thrilled when I found that a thread had started and others felt the way I did.
 

Carlo_M

Senior HTF Member
Joined
Oct 31, 1997
Messages
13,385
I agree with all of you. To take it a step further, even the coming HD-DVD won't make DVDs obsolete any time soon. I've now watched a DVD scaled to 720p via a Bravo D1 ($200) to a Marantz DLP projector onto a 9' (wide) screen. And I found it to be superb. Sure HD on that screen would look better, but to be honest, I could live with that picture for quite a while longer.
 

WillKTaylor

Stunt Coordinator
Joined
Aug 3, 2003
Messages
137
VOD will do to DVD what MP3 has done to (dynamic range and clarity) CD. It won't happen for quite some time, I'm sure.

Considering the fact that DVD revenue is approaching half of what screening will take in, and in only 5 or less years, production companies will ride this out for some time regardless of piracy or other concerns. The only problem that I can see in the short term regards business models of production. There is a lot of stuff on the shelves that is not selling. These companies need to better manage their inventory supply lines for the most gain. I hope that they figure this out eventually.

By the way ... do NOT support piracy!!!!
 

DaveGTP

Senior HTF Member
Joined
Jul 24, 2002
Messages
2,096
Video on demand (via internet) movies will only sell to college kids in dorm rooms using their PC as a TV and a few other similiar small-TV situations. Standard video on demand via sat or digital cable already fills the rental-niche for lazy or late-night renters.

Sure. And music downloading is the big bad reason that music companies are loosing money. Since I can only hear only the same basic few dozen top-40 hit songs on the radio due to them all being owned by conglomerates where am I hearing new music to buy?? Hmm...I'm not.

The one growth field that I think will pick up is Satellite radio (at least XM). The selection of songs on the radio stinks these days, virtually the same top-40 on every station. I would bet on Satellite radio over internet-VOD.
 

MarkHastings

Senior HTF Member
Joined
Jan 27, 2003
Messages
12,013
I want to make another comment to this absolutely laughable statement:
illegal file trading, which has caused an estimated $700 million of lost CD sales since 1999
I'd like to say that illegal file trading isn't the cause for CD sales loss, it's the fact that the RIAA has stepped in,

I used to peruse the Napster type places and find artists I've never heard of before, then I'd buy the CD. Since it's getting more difficult to find songs anymore, I find myself not buying as many CD's as before.

I used to buy at least 2 CD's per week (pre-2000), but now there is absolutely NOTHING worth buying anymore and I don't have access to listen to "Good" music because the raido is shit.

In fact, I've deleted all of the "Peer to Peer" programs from my computer and I've made it a point to not buy CD's anymore. This whole mess has soured me from ever caring about music. I'll stick to the 500 CD's I own right now and I'll be happy to watch the music industry fall off the face of the earth. Hopefully the RIAA will get just what they want, because once everyone stops buying the crap they are putting out on CD, then there won't be anything to steal. ;)
 

Bill>Moore

Second Unit
Joined
Mar 28, 2003
Messages
366
It's just not going to work. I travel all the time. It's easy to carry a stack of discs with me to watch whenever I want and how often I want. Why in the wold would I want to switch to something where I'd have to pay to watch every time, can't carry it with me, probably won't get any extras with my VOD, etc. To hell with that.
 

Jeff D Han

Supporting Actor
Joined
Mar 2, 2003
Messages
566
"Consumers are tired of paying high costs for DVDs"??????
This is nonsense. If this is true, then DVDs would not be ahead of VHS in sales and rentals right now.

I am a collector. I have 330+ DVDs and I enjoy the hobby
of movie collecting and viewing. I will NEVER give up
my collection in favor of pay-per-view. The extras that
come with DVDs are one of the main reasons I collect
movies. Pay-per-view downloads will not include stuff
like the commentaries from The Lord Of The Rings films
(unless we get gouged with another fee to get these
features).

Everybody that has posted here has made some excellent
points why this idea will die on the vine (like the
DAT, and I don't see any future for the D-VHS either).

Another thing I agree with- the statement about the
music industry losing almost $1 billion because of
napster sites is a false claim. They are telling us
that the music being produced today is worth buying
and we don't want to legally purchase the music.
IMO the music being produced today sucks, and I know
that the CDs are grossly over-priced, so for these
reasons I'll just stick to collecting DVDs and be
happy with my older CD collection. When consumers
can buy DVDs for cheaper than CDs, something is wrong.
 

Robert Dunnill

Second Unit
Joined
Jun 16, 2001
Messages
375
The "high cost" of DVDs? BS.
I took delivery of an MGM Midnite Movies double-feature. The cost? $9.50 delivered, about two-thirds of what a typical VHS tape was selling for at Suncoast 6 years ago. This was for a disc with two feature films on it.

These "experts" are more often wrong than they are right. Look at how they projected an "insatiable" demand for IT professionals 3 years ago, while in actuality, total IT employment is down by 12% over March of 2001.

RD
 

WillardK

Second Unit
Joined
Mar 25, 2003
Messages
318
A very non-expert opinion/observation:

Some of the comments on quality of stream remind me of the days when music fans predicted the quality of the then early mp3 format would never replace cd's for even the least discerning consumer. For some factors it's only a matter of time.

Both cable services here already offer VOD and it's no great leap of imagination to realize this has huge potential as a rental replacement for most consumers. When you consider how many even HERE occassionaly post about their enormous piles of DVD's that will likely never be rewatched, you have to wonder about how the average consumer will feel about amassing discs once the novelty of collecting them has worn off.

Five years doesn't seem like a lot of time, but I'm still amazed when I think of how personal computing exploded during the 90's. MP3's even... it's boggling how quickly things have changed with entertainment media technology and I hardly expect them to stay the same for too long.
 

Derek_McL

Second Unit
Joined
Apr 5, 2003
Messages
316
I honestly feel DVD will be with us for the forseeable future in some form or other. Even if HD-DVD comes along I believe that the equipment will be backwardly compatible.

From VHS to DVD is a huge leap in image quality : thats why its been so popular the ordinary person in the street can see the difference : until there is another big leap forward the DVD will still be with us. Also the discs are in a digital format which theoretically will last forever meaning you could be watching your collection until you die. For many movie fans having a non degradeable format for all our favorites has been an unreachable dream for many years. Collecting is indeed an addictive human pastime and those who want large collections : the true film fans will have them for many years. I even wonder if some will want to replace them with improved media whatever that might be.

So the real film fans can keep their collections invest in DVD recorders and increase them. Some not too keen in having volumes of media might go for one of those hard disc recorders with limited resources or pay for a movie download as they once rented a video but they aren't the real film fans who build up collections of DVDs. Real film fans won't pay for poor quality downloads when they have near reference quality in a little silver disc.

I for one expect to be playing all the discs in my collection for years to come,I feel one of the great advantages of the media is that it lasts. So whatever the prevailing circumstances some movie fan (even while every ordinary Joe is just downloading junk) may well be cycling through his 1000 DVD collection in fifty years time : with any luck it might be me !
 

WillardK

Second Unit
Joined
Mar 25, 2003
Messages
318
even while every ordinary Joe is just downloading junk
That might be the case and then again it might not. I don't have to download a thing to get VOD from my cable company right now. Again, I'm no expert, but even if I did in the future I wouldn't underestimate the possibilities. Five years ago I wouldn't have guessed that I'd have access to a greater than T-1 internet connection from my home.

Think of it... films will of course be offered OAR with optional commentary tracks on an SAP channel, and you can digitally record the ones you want to keep. If this happens I could see DVD's going the way of laserdiscs to a specialty market or to the special Joe's. ...AND, it would be good for the environment! ;) Just food for thought is all.
 

JeremyFr

Supporting Actor
Joined
Jan 28, 2003
Messages
794
all I can say about VOD is that I know that in Philadelphia were already showing VOD HDTV content in 1080i with full DD 5.1 audio and its working wonderfully.

And VOD will be launching here in Seattle late this year or 1st quarter next year so it will be quite interesting to see.

As for the comments on owning DVD's you unfortunately dont own them, the 19.99 or so you pay is for usage rights. Kinda like the end user liscence agreement for software. You dont own any of your software you pay to use it and if you actually read for instance your Microsoft EULA they require you to send the disc back when your done using said software.

I'm quite excited about VOD myself and cant wait to get it here in this area. As for bandwidth concerns with cable there is a lot less of a bandwidth issue as with say twisted pair telephony or satellite service. These days Cable TV is all Fiber almost the entire way to your house.
 

george kaplan

Senior HTF Member
Joined
Mar 14, 2001
Messages
13,063
Wrong. I own the dvd. Now, it may be true that I am not allowed to use this for public exhibition to make money. And there may be certain restrictions (a murky legal area) about my making copies. And I certainly don't own the movie in the sense of the intellectual property on it. But I own that dvd, and no one can take it away from me and I can watch it as many fricking times as I want from now until I die, and never have to pay anyone another red cent to do so. That will clearly NOT be the case with VOD.
 

Marc_Sulinski

Supporting Actor
Joined
Jan 15, 2001
Messages
585
Think of it... films will of course be offered OAR with optional commentary tracks on an SAP channel, and you can digitally record the ones you want to keep. If this happens I could see DVD's going the way of laserdiscs to a specialty market or to the special Joe's. ...AND, it would be good for the environment! Just food for thought is all.
I would be a lot more comfortable with VoD if I knew that I could always digitally record the movies and keep them to watch whenever I want, but every indication seems to be that this will not be possible. The movie studios are supporting VoD precisely because they do not want consumers to be able to own movies.
 

MarkHastings

Senior HTF Member
Joined
Jan 27, 2003
Messages
12,013
The movie studios are supporting VoD precisely because they do not want consumers to be able to own movies.
There ya go. VOD will probably start off as a 'non-recordable' medium until someone figures out a machine to record VOD programming, then the studios will devise a NEW system.

It's a never ending battle :angry:


p.s. I'd personally like to say to VOD, you can (insert horrific explicit here).
 

Demetri K

Stunt Coordinator
Joined
Dec 29, 2001
Messages
133
I totally agree with you here, DVD will never be replaced. BUT...... I get Video on demand service form Yahoo BB in japan. It is basically a TV cable service that has Video on demand in real time. The thing about it is it Runs though a ADSL line. you can get DD 5.1 from this service. ADSL here usually is a 12mb connection. There is a box that hooks up to my modem and that box gets hooked up to the monitor and reciver and BANG!!! Cable TV with VOD!!! Dont ask me how they did it but I have had no problems with the service thus far.
 

george kaplan

Senior HTF Member
Joined
Mar 14, 2001
Messages
13,063
You know, just having access to VOD isn't the same thing as using it. I have lots of PPV options via DirectTV and have never once used it. For various reasons, but mostly because they take new movies and make them available p&s only. What reason is there to believe that VOD would be any different?
 

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